The Indian rupee appreciated to a one month high against the US dollar due to selling of dollars by exporters and banks as well as sustained foreign fund inflows, while China's trade balance was in surplus in June and the US had a federal budget surplus. The euro rose against the dollar but industrial production declined in the euro zone and Japan. Various economic indicators from major economies are expected which could impact currency movements.

1. Currency Highlights
14th
July’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee touched one month high at 67.05 on Wednesday
 China’s Trade Balance was at a surplus of 311 billion Yuan in June
 US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $6.3 billion in June
 Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by 1.2 percent in May
 Japan’s Revised Industrial Production fell by 2.6 percent in May
China’s Trade Balance was at a surplus of 311 billion Yuan in June with re-
spect to previous surplus of 325 billion Yuan in May.
Indian Rupee rose to one month high and appreciated around 13 paise to
end at 67.05 against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency appreciat-
ed on account of selling of dollar demand from exporters and banks. Fur-
ther, sustained inflow of foreign funds and weakness in the dollar index
led to positive movement in the currency. Additionally, estimates of fa-
vourable economic data from the country continued with upside activity in
the currency.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.0275 to 67.2150 in Wednesday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed
reference rate for the dollar was seen at 67.2046 and Euro stood at 74.3484 in Wednesday’s trade.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee moved down further against the pound sterling to end at 89.00 from 88.27 yesterday while
recovered against the euro to 74.27 from 74.46. The domestic currency continued to rule firm against the Japanese yen at
64.07 per 100 yen from 64.73.
US Dollar Index declined around 0.13 percent in Wednesday‘s trading session due to rise in risk appetite in global market senti-
ments in early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, unfavourable economic
data from the country kept pressure on the currency. US Import Prices grew by 0.2 percent in June as against a rise of 1.4 per-
cent in May. Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $6.3 billion in June from a previous deficit of $52.5 billion a month
ago.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.33 percent on Wednesday on account of upbeat global market sentiments in early part of
the trade. Further, weakness in the dollar index led to upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was re-
stricted due to unfavourable economic data from the region. French Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 0.1 percent in
June from a rise of 0.2 percent in May. Euro Zone Industrial Production plunged by 1.2 percent in May when compared to rise
of 1.4 percent a month ago.
The Sterling Pound plunged sharply around 1 percent in Wednesday’s trade due to expectations of cut in interest rates by the
Bank of England in its meeting today. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of weaker dollar
coupled with upbeat global market sentiments. The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.6 percent in Wednes-
day’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments in later part of the trade which led to increase in
demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavourable economic data from the country capped sharp gains in the cur-
rency. Japan’s Revised Industrial Production declined by 2.6 percent in May as against a drop of 2.3 percent in April.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 96.38 96.55 (0.17) (0.18)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.08 67.01 0.07 0.10
USD/INR(NseJuly) 67.21 67.32 (0.11) (0.16)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.31 74.04 0.27 0.36
EUR/INR(NseJuly) 74.48 74.64 (0.16) (0.21)
GBP/INR(Spot) 89.04 88.79 0.25 0.28
GBP/INR(NseJuly) 89.25 88.52 0.73 0.82
JPY/INR(NseJuly) 64.19 64.88 (0.69) (1.07)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair have been trading in rising channel pattern and pric-
es have been facing resistance of its upper band of channel
pattern 67.60 levels on daily chart.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading below its
15 hourly exponential moving average which gives the nega-
tive confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has remained above
its overbought zone 70 levels, which gives negative confirma-
tion to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown negative sign on
daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bearish.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 63.80 levels
in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few months and price has faced resistance of its
upper band at 68.10 levels on daily chart. Price has faced re-
sistance of its horizontal trend line at 68 levels on daily.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 50 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains
down. So any rally in the prices towards 67.50 level, used as
selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 60 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative crossover on
daily chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 67 levels in
few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
14th
July’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.95 67.10 67.16 67.25 67.31 67.40 67.55
JPYINR 70.27 67.81 66.01 65.35 63.55 62.89 60.43

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
14th
July’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has shown breakout of its symmetrical triangle
patter at 75.50 levels on daily chart. The price has shown
breakdown of its rising channel pattern at 75.50 levels on
daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains down.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 45 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 73.90
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern on
daily which is bullish pattern. The price has completed bullish
AB=CD harmonic pattern on daily chart 87.20 levels the coor-
dinates of which are as follows:
Technical Parameter: AB of the leg from 106 to 92,BC of the
leg completed 101 at (i.e.50% of AB leg.) CD of the leg com-
pleted to 87.20 levels (i.e. near 200% Fibonacci Projection of
BC leg). So any dips in the prices towards 87.50 level, used as
buying opportunity.
The price has taken support of its falling trend line at 87.30
levels on daily chart.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved in oversold zone at
27 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
sign on daily chart which support our bullish view on the
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 87.86 88.58 88.92 89.30 89.64 90.02 90.74
EURINR 73.30 73.95 74.22 74.60 74.87 75.25 75.90

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
14.07.16 All Day French Bank Holiday
14.07.16 4:30pm MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-9-0 More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; GBPINR
14.07.16 4:30pm Monetary Policy Summary More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; GBPINR
14.07.16 4:30pm Official Bank Rate 0.50% 0.25% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
14.07.16 4:30pm Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
14.07.16 4:30pm MPC Asset Purchase Facility
Votes
0-0-9 0-0-9 More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; GBPINR
14.07.16 6:00pm PPI m/m 0.4% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
14.07.16 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 254K 263K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
14.07.16 6:00pm Core PPI m/m 0.3% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
14th
July’2016

5. Currency Highlights
14th
July’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.07.14 08:42:55 +05'30'