The Indian rupee snapped its 4 day losing streak, rising 12 paise against the US dollar on Wednesday due to selling of dollars by exporters and banks as well as upbeat domestic market sentiment, while other currencies like the euro, pound, and yen also rose against the dollar due to weakness in the US dollar index and positive economic data from Europe and the UK. The document also provides technical analysis of currency pairs and highlights upcoming economic indicators from various countries that could impact currencies.

1. Currency Highlights
16th
June’2016
HighLights:
 Indian Rupee snaps its 4 day losing streak and rose by 12 paise on
Wednesday
 US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4 percent in the month of May
 UK’s Unemployment Rate fell to 5 percent in the month of April
 Euro Zone Trade Balance was at a surplus of 28 billion Euros in April
Indian Rupee retreated from one week low and gained by 12 paise to end
at 67.15 against the US dollar on Wednesday. The currency rose on ac-
count of selling of dollars from exporters and banks. Further, upbeat do-
mestic market sentiments led to positive movement in the currency.
Additionally, estimates of hopes of foreign capital inflows on account of
various measures taken by the government led to upside on the Indian
Rupee. The currency moved in the range of 67.06 to 67.25 in Wednesday’s
trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reference rate for dollar
was seen at 67.1596 and Euro stood at 75.2859 on Wednesday.
In cross-currency trades, the rupee fell against the pound sterling to close at 95.31 from 95.22 yesterday while moved up fur-
ther against the euro to 75.40 from 75.50. The domestic currency also recouped against the Japanese yen to 63.19 per 100 yen
from 63.49.
US Dollar Index declined around 0.4 percent in Wednesday trading session due to Federal Reserve keeping its key rates un-
changed and stated that need to keep a watch on economic growth of the country in future. However, rise in risk aversion in
global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency cushioned sharp fall in the currency.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.4 percent in May as against a rise of 0.2 percent in April. Core PPI gained by 0.3 percent
in last month from 0.1 percent in April. Empire State Manufacturing Index jumped to 6-mark in June when compared to nega-
tive 9-level in May. Capacity Utilization Rate fell to 74.9 percent in May with respect to 75.3 percent a month ago. Industrial
Production plunged by 0.4 percent in previous month as compared to rise of 0.6 percent in April.
Euro against dollar rose around 0.5 percent on Wednesday on account of weakness in the dollar index coupled with favourable
economic data from the region. However, weak global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. Euro Zone
Trade Balance was at a surplus of 28 billion Euros in April when compared to previous surplus of 23.7 billion Euros a month
ago.
The Sterling Pound gained around 0.5 percent in Wednesday’s trade on account of weaker dollar along with optimistic eco-
nomic data from the country. However, downside in global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. UK’s Aver-
age Earnings Index remained unchanged at 2 percent in the month of April. Claimant Count Change dropped by 400 in May as
against a previous fall of 2,400 in April. Unemployment Rate fell to 5 percent in April with respect to 5.1 percent a month ago.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.22 percent in Wednesday’s trade due to rise in risk aversion in global
market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, investors were cautious ahead of
the Bank of Japan meeting today.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 94.89 95.03 (0.14) (0.15)
USD/INR(Spot) 67.12 67.30 (0.18) (0.27)
USD/INR(NseJune) 67.25 67.42 (0.17) (0.25)
EUR/INR(Spot) 75.36 75.45 (0.09) (0.12)
EUR/INR(NseJune) 75.54 75.74 (0.20) (0.26)
GBP/INR(Spot) 95.28 94.96 0.32 0.34
GBP/INR(NseJune) 95.51 95.56 (0.05) (0.05)
JPY/INR(NseJune) 63.24 63.64 (0.40) (0.63)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The JPYINR price has been trading in rectangle pattern form
past few weeks and price has shown breakout of its resistance
which is upper band of channel pattern at 63 levels on daily
chart.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
21 day exponential moving average which gives the positive
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above 60
levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover
on daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bull-
ish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 63.83 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The price has been trading in its rising channel formation
from past few weeks and price has taken support of its of its
lower band of channel pattern at 66.90 levels on daily chart.
Price has formed piercing candle stick pattern on daily chart,
which is bullish pattern.
Moreover, price have been trading above of its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains up.
So any dips in the prices towards 67.15 level, used as buying
opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover on
4 hourly chart, which gives positive confirmation to the pric-
es.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.75 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
16th
June’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.88 67.08 67.16 67.28 67.36 67.48 67.68
JPYINR 62.62 62.95 63.09 63.28 63.42 63.61 63.94

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
16th
June’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The pair has given breakdown of its symmetrical triangle
pattern at 76.10 levels on daily chart. Now, the price has re-
tested the breakdown trend line at 76.30 levels.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains negative.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 60 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 75
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The prices have been moving in rectangle formation form
past few months and prices have been facing resistance of its
upper band of pattern at 98 levels.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that short term
trend is remains bearish.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below 45 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 95
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 94.68 95.06 95.28 95.44 95.66 95.82 96.20
EURINR 75.15 75.34 75.45 75.53 75.64 75.72 75.91

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
16.06.16 Tentative Monetary Policy Statement
16.06.16 Tentative BOJ Press Conference
16.06.16 2:00pm Retail Sales m/m 1.3% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
16.06.16 2:30pm Final CPI y/y -0.1% -0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
16.06.16 All Day Eurogroup Meetings
16.06.16 4:30pm MPC Official Bank Rate Votes 0-0-9 0-0-9 More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; GBPINR
16.06.16 4:30pm Monetary Policy Summary More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; GBPINR
16.06.16 4:30pm Official Bank Rate 0.5% 0.5% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
16.06.16 4:30pm Asset Purchase Facility 375B 375B Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
16.06.16 4:30pm MPC Asset Purchase Facility
Votes
More hawkish than expected =
Good for currency; GBPINR
16.06.16 6:00pm CPI m/m 0.4% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
16.06.16 6:00pm Core CPI m/m 0.2% 0.2% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
16.06.16 6:00pm Philly Fed Manufacturing Index -1.8 1.1 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
16.06.16 6:00pm Unemployment Claims 264K 267K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
16.06.16 6:00pm Current Account -125B -125B Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
16th
June’2016

5. Currency Highlights
16th
June’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.06.16 08:56:06 +05'30'