The Indian rupee appreciated against the US dollar for the fifth consecutive day, gaining 0.18% on continued selling of dollars by exporters and foreign fund inflows, while weaker global manufacturing data weighed on the dollar. Major Asian and European currencies declined against the dollar due to weak manufacturing PMIs and rising risk aversion. Technical analyses indicate further upside potential for the rupee and downside risks for the euro and pound in the near term.

1. Currency Highlights
02nd
Aug’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI grew to 51.8-mark in July
 US ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged by 0.6 points to 52.6-mark in July
 Spanish Manufacturing PMI fell by 1.2 points to 51-mark in last month
 UK’s Manufacturing PMI plunged by 0.9 points to 48.2-mark in July
Indian Rupee continued with its appreciation trend for fifth consecutive
day and gained sharply by 25 paise to end at 66.74 against the US dollar on
Monday. The currency appreciated on account of continued selling of dol-
lars by exporters and banks. Further, constant inflow of foreign funds in
equity and debt markets led to positive movement in the currency. Addi-
tionally, weaker dollar index due to less than expected rise in US GDP data
led to hopes of further delay in rate hikes by the Federal Reserve which
continued with upside movement in the currency. Indian Rupee moved in
the range of 66.69 to 66.78 in Monday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank
of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 66.74 and Euro
stood at 74.51 in Monday’s trade. .
India’s Nikkei Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) grew marginally to 51.8-mark in July as against a rise of
51.7-level in June.
US Dollar Index fell around 0.3 percent in Monday’s trading session due to unfavourable economic data from the country.
However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which
led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI plunged by 0.6 points to 52.6-mark in July as against a rise of
53.2-level in June. Construction Spending fell by 0.6 percent in June from drop of 0.1 percent a month ago. ISM Manufacturing
Prices declined by 5.5 points to 55-level in July with respect to 60.5-mark in June.
Euro against dollar dropped marginally on Monday on account of weak global market sentiments coupled with unfavourable
economic data from the region. However, weakness in the dollar index cushioned sharp fall in the currency.
Spanish Manufacturing PMI fell by 1.2 points to 51-mark in July as against a rise of 52.2-level in June. Italian Manufacturing
PMI dropped by 2.3 points to 51.2-level in last month from 53.5-mark in June. French Final Manufacturing PMI unchanged at
48.6-mark in July. German Final Manufacturing PMI grew marginally to 53.8-level in July with respect to 53.7-mark a month
ago. Euro Zone Final Manufacturing PMI was at 52-mark in previous month when compared to 51.9-level in June.
The Sterling Pound plunged around 0.23 percent in Monday’s trade due to weak global market sentiments along with unfa-
vourable economic data from the country. However, weakness in the dollar index cushioned sharp downside in the currency.
UK’s Manufacturing PMI plunged by 0.9 points to 48.2-mark in July from 49.1-level a month ago.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated marginally in Monday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global mar-
ket sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 95.69 95.49 0.20 0.21
USD/INR(Spot) 66.77 66.65 0.12 0.18
USD/INR(NseAug) 67.06 67.29 (0.23) (0.34)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.51 74.48 0.03 0.04
EUR/INR(NseAug 74.92 74.83 0.09 0.12
GBP/INR(Spot) 87.93 88.15 (0.22) (0.25)
GBP/INR(NseAug) 88.47 88.72 (0.25) (0.28)
JPY/INR(NseAug) 65.54 65.12 0.42 0.64
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The price has taken support of its rising trend line at 64.50
levels on daily chart. The pair has been trading in rising chan-
nel pattern and price has taken support of its lower band of
channel pattern at 63.40 levels on daily chart. Price has
formed bullish inverted hammer candle stick pattern with ap-
pealing volumes which is bullish reversal pattern.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
21 daily exponential moving average which gives the bullish
confirmation to the prices.
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above
50 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on 4
hourly chart, which indicates short term trend remains bull-
ish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 66.20 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The prices have been trading in rising channel pattern form
past few weeks and price has shown breakdown of its lower
band of channel pattern at 67.40 levels on daily chart. Prices
have been facing resistance of horizontal trend line at 67.50
levels on daily chart.
Moreover, price have been trading below its 21 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term trend is
weak. So any rally in the prices towards 67.20 level, used as
selling opportunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has remained below 60 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given negative sign on 4
hourly chart, which gives negative confirmation to the prices.
For now we expect prices to move lower towards 66.75 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
02nd
Aug’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.80 66.92 66.98 67.04 67.10 67.16 67.28
JPYINR 64.74 65.03 65.08 65.32 65.37 65.61 65.90

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
02nd
Aug’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The prices have been trading in ascending triangle pattern
from past few weeks and prices has taken support of its low-
er band of triangle pattern at 74 levels in daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 21 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains up.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 50 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bullishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards 75.60
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has shown breakdown of its failing channel
pattern at 89.80 levels. The price has shown breakdown of its
horizontal trend line at 89.60 levels on daily chart. Price has
been facing resistance of its falling trend line at 88.50 levels
on daily 88.70 daily chart.
The price has formed bearish candle on daily with appalling
volumes which indicates further down side movement.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved below at 40 levels
on hourly chart, which suggest bearishness in the prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
sign on hourly chart which support our bearish view on the
pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 87.60
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 87.53 88.07 88.28 88.61 88.82 89.15 89.69
EURINR 74.63 74.77 74.85 74.91 74.99 75.05 75.19

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
02.08.16 12:30PM Spanish Unemployment
Change
-124.3K -70K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; EURINR
02.08.16 2:00PM Construction PMI 46.0 44.2 Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
02.08.16 6:00PM Core PCE Price Index m/m 0.2% 0.1% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
02.08.16 6:00PM Personal Spending m/m 0.4% 0.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; USDINR
02nd
Aug’2016

5. Currency Highlights
02nd
Aug’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.08.02 08:34:41 +05'30'