The Indian rupee appreciated against the US dollar, gaining 0.03% as selling of dollars by exporters and banks strengthened the currency, while some economic data from the US and Germany came in above expectations. The British pound dropped over 1% due to a stronger US dollar and the IMF cutting growth forecasts for the UK. Overall, currency movements were mixed as markets reacted to economic data releases and shifts in risk appetite.

1. Currency Highlights
20th
July’2016
HighLights:
 India’s Rupee appreciated and gained by 10 paise to 67.10 on Tuesday
 US Building Permits jumped to 1.15 million in the previous month
 German ZEW Economic Sentiment was at a negative 6.8-mark in July
 UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.5 percent in last month
 Euro Zone ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to -14.7-level in current
month
Indian Rupee recovered from its low and gained around 10 paise to end at
67.10 against the US dollar on Tuesday. The currency appreciated on ac-
count of selling of dollars from exporters and banks.
Additionally, recovery in domestic market sentiments led to positive
movement in the currency. Further, inflow of foreign capital led to upside
move in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped
statement from RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan that the current value of
Indian rupee is well appropriate and devaluation of the currency will lead
to inflation.
Indian Rupee moved in the range of 67.1037 to 67.2263 in Tuesday’s trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) fixed ref-
erence rate for the dollar was seen at 67.1462 and Euro stood at 74.3443 in Tuesday’s trade.
US Dollar Index gained by 0.5 percent in yesterday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments
which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favourable economic data from the country led to up-
side in the currency.
US Building Permits rose to 1.15 million in June as against a rise of 1.14 million in May. Housing Starts expanded to 1.19 million
in last month from 1.14 million in May.
Euro against dollar plunged around 0.54 percent on Tuesday on account of weak global market sentiments. Further, strength
in the dollar index led to downside in the currency. Additionally, unfavourable economic data from the region kept pressure on
the currency.
German ZEW Economic Sentiment was at a negative 6.8-mark in July as against a rise of 19.2-level in June. Euro Zone ZEW Eco-
nomic Sentiment plunged to negative 14.7-level in current month from rise of 20.2-mark in June.
The Sterling Pound dropped by more than 1 percent in Tuesday’s trade due to stronger dollar. Further, weak global market
sentiments led to downside movement in the currency. Additionally, International Monetary Fund (IMF) cutting the growth
forecast of the country to kept pressure on the currency.
UK’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.5 percent in June as against a rise of 0.3 percent in May. Producer Price Index (PPI)
Input fell to 1.8 percent in last month from 2.2 percent in May. Retail Price Index (RPI) gained to 1.6 percent in June when
compared to 1.4 percent a month ago. Core CPI jumped to 1.4 percent in previous month with respect to 1.2 percent in May.
The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated marginally in Tuesday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global mar-
ket sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng%
DollarIndex 96.73 96.59 0.14 0.14
USD/INR(Spot) 67.15 67.13 0.02 0.03
USD/INR(NseJuly) 67.22 67.28 (0.06) (0.09)
EUR/INR(Spot) 74.29 74.34 (0.05) (0.07)
EUR/INR(NseJuly) 74.42 74.39 0.03 0.04
GBP/INR(Spot) 88.58 88.99 (0.41) (0.46)
GBP/INR(NseJuly) 88.69 89.05 (0.36) (0.41)
JPY/INR(NseJuly) 63.38 63.71 (0.33) (0.52)
MarketHighlights

2. Technical View:
The pair have been taking support of its horizontal trend line
at 63.20 levels on daily chart. The pair has been taking sup-
port of its lower band of channel pattern at 63 levels on daily
chart.
In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its
50 daily exponential moving average which gives the positive
confirmation to the prices.
Moreover, price has been taking support of its 61.80% Fibo-
nacci retracement levels t 63.20 levels on daily .
On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above
40 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices.
A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on
daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bullish.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 64 levels in
few trading sessions.
Pivot levels for the Day
Technical View:
The prices have been taking support of its rising trend line at
67 levels on daily chart. Price has formed bullish engulfing
pattern on daily chart. The USDINR has been trading in rising
channel pattern and taking support of its lower band of chan-
nel pattern at 66.90 levels on daily chart.
Moreover, price have been trading above its 200 daily expo-
nential moving average which suggest near term remains up.
So any dip in the prices towards 67 level, used as buying op-
portunity.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 40 levels on
daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices.
A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover on
4 hourly chart, which gives negative confirmation to the pric-
es.
For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.70 lev-
els in few trading sessions.
Currency Highlights
20th
July’2016
USDINR JPYINR
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
USDINR 66.91 67.07 67.14 67.23 67.30 67.39 67.55
JPYINR 62.66 63.06 63.23 63.46 63.63 63.86 64.26

3. Pivot levels for the Day
Currency Highlights
20th
July’2016
GBPINR EURINR
Technical View:
The price has given breakdown of its rising trend line at
74.50 levels and price has retested the breakdown trend line
at 74.60 levels on daily chart.
On the other hand, Pair has been trading below its 50 daily
exponential moving average which indicates that trend is
remains up.
A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading below 40 lev-
els on daily chart which gives the signs of bearishness to the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown negative
crossover on daily chart which support our bearish view on
the pair.
For now we expect prices should move lower towards 73.70
levels in the coming trading sessions.
Technical View:
The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern on
daily which is bullish pattern. Price has been falling trend
line at 89 levels on daily chart.
The pair has taken support of its horizontal trend line at
88.60 levels.
The price has completed bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern on
daily chart 87.20 levels.
A momentum indicator RSI has moved in oversold zone at
27 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the
prices.
Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive
sign on daily chart which support our bullish view on the
pair.
For now we expect prices should move higher towards 89.60
levels in the coming trading sessions.
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3
GBPINR 87.87 88.31 88.51 88.75 88.95 89.19 89.63
EURINR 73.93 74.18 74.30 74.43 74.55 74.68 74.93

4. Currency Highlights
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Economic Indicators
Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact
20.07.16 2:00pm Average Earnings Index 3m/y 2.0% 2.3% Actual > Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
20.07.16 2:00pm Claimant Count Change -0.4K 4.1K Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
20.07.16 2:00pm Unemployment Rate 5.0% 5.0% Actual < Forecast = Good for
currency; GBPINR
20.07.16 8:00pm Crude Oil Inventories -2.5M Actual < Forecast = Good for
Crude Oil
20th
July’2016

5. Currency Highlights
20th
July’2016
SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds
Amit Pathania
Digitally signed by Amit Pathania
DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research
Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN
Date: 2016.07.20 08:44:15 +05'30'