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Currency high lights 18.07.16
- 1. Currency Highlights 18th July’2016 HighLights: India’serased its gains and fell by 16 paise to 67.07 on Friday US Retail Sales also expanded by 0.6 percent in the last month Euro Zone Trade Balance at a surplus of 24.5 billion Euros in May India’s Trade Balance at a deficit of $8.12 billion in previous month US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 89.5-mark in July Indian Rupee erased its two days gains and depreciated around 16 paise to end at 67.07 against the US dollar on Friday. The currency depreciated on fresh dollar demand from importers and banks. Additionally, plunge in do- mestic market sentiments kept pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of good inflow of foreign capital. Indian Rupee moved in the range of 66.83 to 67.1350 in Friday’s trading session. The currency had appreciated around 27 paise or 0.4 percent in previous two trading sessions. The Re- serve Bank of India (RBI) fixed reference rate for the dollar was seen at 67.0655 and Euro stood at 74.6037 in Friday’s trade. In cross-currency trades, the rupee moved down against the pound sterling to finish at 89.78 from 89.51 on Friday and while recouped against the euro to 74.65 from 74.72. The domestic currency fell against the Japanese yen to 63.34 per 100 yen as against 63.30. India’s Trade Balance at a deficit of $8.12 billion in June from a previous deficit of $6.27 billion in May. US Dollar Index surged around 0.5 percent in Friday‘s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavourable economic data from the country capped sharp gains in the currency. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) unchanged at 0.2 percent in the last month. Core CPI also remained unchanged at 0.2 percent in June. Core Retail Sales grew by 0.7 percent in June as against a rise of 0.4 percent in May. Retail Sales also expanded by 0.6 percent in last month from 0.2 percent in May. Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged by 5.4 points to 0.6-mark in July when compared to 6-level in June. Capacity Utilization Rate rose by 75.4 percent in June with respect to 74.9 percent in May. Industrial Production gained by 0.6 percent in June as compared to drop of 0.3 per- cent a month ago. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell by 4 points to 89.5-mark in July from 93.5-level in previous month. Euro against dollar plunged around 0.76 percent on Friday on account of weak global market sentiments. Further, strength in the dollar index led to downside in the currency. However, sharp fall in the currency was prevented due to favourable eco- nomic data from the region. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 5.03 billion Euros in May as against a surplus of 4.51 bil- lion Euros in April. Euro Zone Final CPI unchanged at 0.1 percent in the last month. Euro Zone Trade Balance at a surplus of 24.5 billion Euros in May from a previous surplus of 25.4 billion Euros a month ago. The Sterling Pound dropped by more than 1 percent in Friday’s trade due to stronger dollar. Further, weak global market senti- ments led to downside movement in the currency. The Japanese Yen against dollar appreciated around 0.5 percent in Friday’s trading session due to rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds Last PrevCl. PriceChng PriceChng% DollarIndex 96.56 96.16 0.40 0.41 USD/INR(Spot) 67.14 66.84 0.30 0.45 USD/INR(NseJuly) 67.16 67.03 0.13 0.19 EUR/INR(Spot) 74.07 74.24 (0.17) (0.23) EUR/INR(NseJuly) 74.80 74.60 0.20 0.27 GBP/INR(Spot) 88.57 89.19 (0.62) (0.70) GBP/INR(NseJuly) 89.87 89.45 0.42 0.47 JPY/INR(NseJuly) 63.47 63.57 (0.10) (0.16) MarketHighlights
- 2. Technical View: The pairhave been taking support of its horizontal trend line at 63.20 levels on daily chart. The pair has taken support of rising trend line at 63 levels. In addition, on daily chart prices have been trading above its 50 daily exponential moving average which gives the positive confirmation to the prices. Moreover, price has been taking support of its 61.80% Fibo- nacci retracement levels t 63.20 levels on daily . On daily chart, momentum oscillator RSI has moved above 40 levels, which gives positive confirmation to the prices. A momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on daily chart, which indicates short term trend remains bullish. For now we expect prices to move higher towards 64.10 lev- els in few trading sessions. Pivot levels for the Day Technical View: The prices have been taking support of its rising trend line at 67 levels on daily chart. Price has formed bullish engulfing pattern on daily chart. Moreover, price have been trading above its 21 hourly expo- nential moving average which suggest near term remains up. So any dip in the prices towards 66.95 level, used as buying opportunity. A momentum indicator RSI has moved above 40 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices. A momentum indictor MACD has given positive crossover on 4 hourly chart, which gives negative confirmation to the pric- es. For now we expect prices to move higher towards 67.60 lev- els in few trading sessions. Currency Highlights 18th July’2016 USDINR JPYINR SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 USDINR 66.55 66.83 66.99 67.11 67.27 67.39 67.67 JPYINR 62.04 62.72 63.09 63.40 63.77 64.08 64.76
- 3. Pivot levels forthe Day Currency Highlights 18th July’2016 GBPINR EURINR Technical View: The price has been trading in falling channel pattern and price has taken support of its lower band of pattern at 74.50 levels on daily chart. The price has been taken support of its rising trend line at 74.60 levels on daily chart. On the other hand, Pair has been trading above its 21 hourly exponential moving average which indicates that trend is remains up. A momentum oscillator RSI have been trading above 40 lev- els on daily chart which gives the signs of bullishness to the prices. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive crossover on daily chart which support our bullish view on the pair. For now we expect prices should move higher towards 75.30 levels in the coming trading sessions. Technical View: The price has formed bullish hammer candle stick pattern on daily which is bullish pattern. Price has been falling trend line at 89 levels on daily chart. The pair has taken support of its horizontal trend line at 88.60 levels. The price has completed bullish AB=CD harmonic pattern on daily chart 87.20 levels. A momentum indicator RSI has moved in oversold zone at 27 levels on daily chart, which suggest bullishness in the prices. Moreover, momentum indicator MACD has shown positive sign on daily chart which support our bullish view on the pair. For now we expect prices should move higher towards 90.60 levels in the coming trading sessions. SEBI Certified – Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds S3 S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2 R3 GBPINR 88.51 89.22 89.54 89.93 90.25 90.64 91.35 EURINR 74.01 74.37 74.58 74.73 74.94 75.09 75.45
- 4. Currency Highlights SEBI Certified– Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds Economic Indicators Date Time Data Prior Expected Impact 18.07.16 4:31am Rightmove HPI m/m 0.8% Actual > Forecast = Good for curren- cy; GBPINR 18.07.16 7:30pm NAHB Housing Market Index 60 60 Actual > Forecast = Good for curren- cy; USDINR 18th July’2016
- 5. Currency Highlights 18th July’2016 SEBI Certified– Research Analyst Equities I Commodities I Currencies I Mutual Funds Amit Pathania Digitally signed by Amit Pathania DN: cn=Amit Pathania, o=Choice Equity Broking Pvt. ltd, ou=Research Department, email=amit.pathania@choiceindia.com, c=IN Date: 2016.07.18 08:42:00 +05'30'