Climate science part 3 - climate models and predicted climate change

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Many lines of evidence, from ice cores to marine deposits, indicate that Earth’s temperature, sea level, and distribution of plant and animal species have varied substantially throughout history. Ice cores from Antarctica suggest that over the past 400,000 years global temperature has varied as much as 10 degrees Celsius through ice ages and periods warmer than today. Before human influence, natural factors (such as the pattern of earth’s orbit and changes in ocean currents) are believed to be responsible for climate changes. For more, visit: http://www.extension.org/69150

Education

Climate Science:
Part 3. Climate Models and
Predicted Climate Change
Pam Knox, Agricultural Climatologist,
University of Georgia

Topics you will learn about
• Review: Causes of changes in climate
• Carbon dioxide and other gases
• Methods for predicting climate
• Predicted changes in climate

Review of Climate Trends
What kinds of trends are there?
• Linear
• Exponential
• Changing variability
• Change in slope
• Step function

Atmospheric Window
The “atmospheric window” refers to the
wavelengths at which light can enter the
Earth’s atmosphere as solar radiation (rainbow
at left) or leave it as terrestrial radiation (red
bar).
As the amount of carbon dioxide, methane,
water vapor and other greenhouse gases
increases, the part of the window that lets
light energy back to space gets pinched and
energy stays in the climate system, which
causes the climate to get warmer.

How to Predict Climate
You can predict climate by predicting trends, but that depends
on things continuing the same way they have in the past. Not
always a good assumption!
Instead, climatologists use climate models to simulate the
future climate based on physics and predictions of future CO2
and other emissions.

Problems with Models
• Coarse resolution leaves out
mountains, Great Lakes,
alters local conditions like
coastlines
• Simplification processes
make rainfall less believable
since most of it happens in
sub-gridscale processes like
thunderstorms
• They are not very good at
predicting current climate,
making them less believable
• No El Niño, hurricanes

Weather vs. Climate Models
Weather models are designed
to predict detailed hourly
weather information for up to 7
days across a continent.
Emphasis: short term,
individual storm evolution
Climate models are designed to
predict multi-year climate
conditions across the entire globe.
Emphasis: long-term, seasonal to
multi-year average climate
conditions

Models can separate out C02 effects
Models can be used to
separate out the effects of
individual factors to see
what effect each factor
has on the temperature
trend.

Scenario Modeling
Modelers use scenarios of
various projections of changing
CO2, changing energy efficiency,
etc. to produce a series of graphs
giving a range of expected
outcomes.
Observations don’t always agree with
predictions. So which is right?

Sea Ice
For sea ice, the observed decline in
sea ice cover in the Arctic is faster
than any of the models predicted.

Predictions of Future Temperature
• Temperatures will increase, day and night
• Amount of warming is not certain (5-10 F in next
100 years)
• Longer growing season
• Increased evaporation
http://www.globalchange.gov/nca3-downloads-materials (new site with
similar material has replaced original site)

Predictions for Future Precipitation
• Predictions of future rainfall are not well modeled
• Trends indicate increased rainfall intensity (more
thunderstorms) with longer dry spells in between
• Precipitation changes by season cannot be predicted
• Effects on El Niño and hurricane frequency not known

Summary of Part 3
In this section we have covered:
• Changes in atmospheric composition
• Climate models
• Trends in climate

For a full list of references cited in this presentation, please visit:
www.animalagclimatechange.org
This project was supported by Agricultural and Food Research Initiative Competitive Grant
No. 2011-67003-30206 from the USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

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