3.3 Climate data and projections

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Parallel Session 3.3:
Climate data and projections with a
focus on <2°C (GERICS)
Claas Teichmann
and the GERICS team
NAP Expo 2019
8-12 April 2019, Songdo, South Korea

2
We develop innovative, cutting-edge solutions
 regional climate modelling
 regional system modelling
 climate change impacts
 economics and politics
 transdisciplinary processes
 prototype product development
 inter- and transdisciplinary approaches
 application of climate service
infrastructure
 evaluation of climate services
 climate-fact-sheets and focus papers
 maps and visualisations
 modular toolkits
 training concepts
 books, reports and studies
 strategic partnerships and associates
 creating and facilitating networks
 hosting secretariats
 operationalising climate services
 continuous user interaction
Interlinking Science and Society

3
• Toolkit for cities
• Toolkit for
companies
• Regional modelling
toolkit
Adaptation
Toolkits
Adaptation
ToolkitsSOCIETAL NEEDS
Adaptation • Climate signal
maps
• Rain maps
Maps &
visualizations
Maps &
visualizations
• Climate Fact
Sheets
• Site-characteristic
Climate-Fact-
Sheets
• Climate-Focus-
PapersFact SheetsFact Sheets
Selection
Identification of adaptation
measures
Identification of climate change
impacts
Climate change scenarios
Description of region under
study or sector of interest
Lay the
groundwork and
address gaps
Preparatory
elements
Implementation
strategies
Reporting,
monitoring and
review
Products for adaptation

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Urban water
Specific urban
Climate information
Climate adapted
urban development
Thermal comfort
and housing
environment
Urban green
Communication
Combined
mitigation and
adaptation concepts
Economics and
financing
Monitoring and
quality assurance
Critical
infrastructure
Interfaces:
e.g. to Adaptation Toolkit
for companies
GERICS Adaptation Toolkit for Cities

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Overall Outline
●
Introduction to climate modelling
●
Bandwidth of possible future climate
developments and ensemble techniques
●
How to access climate data
●
How to visualize climate data
●
Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present
and possible future climate conditions in different
regions.
1st
part
2nd
part

6
Brainstorming
How does climate change affect your region?
Region
Climate Change affect
Variables/indicators

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Overall Outline
●
●
●
●
How to visualize and analyze climate data
●
regions.
1st
part
2nd
part

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Earth without atmosphere
S0
: solar constant = ~1360 W/m2
S0
4
(1− α)=σTe
4
: albedo~0.3
: Boltzman constant
-18°C
Courtesy M. Reuter

10
Earth with atmosphere
+15°C
Courtesy M. Reuter

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Greenhouse effect
http://www.physicalgeography.net

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Greenhouse effect
Source: based on IPCC 2007
The climate system

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Main drivers of climate change

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Global Fossil CO2 Emissions
Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990
Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%)
Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
https://www.globalcarbonproject.org

15
CO2
concentration in the Atmosphere 1960-2017
Source: NOAA Earth System Research
Laboratory

17
Global average sea level change
Source:
IPCC 2013 AR5 WGI

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Twelve warmest years between 1880-2016
NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series,
published October 2017, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/

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Summer 2003: Heatwave over Europe
Quelle: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
source: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Inst. f. Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Univ. Karlsruhe

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Summer 2003: Heatwave over Europe
Quelle: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies
source: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Inst. f. Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Univ. Karlsruhe
Heatwaves are regional phenomena and a vary in
time and space

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Heatwave 2003 Jun/Jul/Aug temperature in switzerland
Quelle: IPCC, 2007; Schär et al, 2004

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Heatwave 2003 Jun/Jul/Aug temperature in switzerland
Quelle: IPCC, 2007; Schär et al, 2004
The outstanding heatwave of 2003, might become a
standard summer at the end of the century

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Global average near surface temperatures relative to the
pre-industrial period
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-8/assessment

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Global average near surface temperatures relative to the
pre-industrial period
https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-8/assessment
Will the increase in global average temperature stay
below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels?

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Greenhouse effect
Development
depends on the
understanding of
the physical
processes of the
climate system
and the availability
of observation
data
Utilization
depends on the
relevance of the
processes for the
cliamate system
And on the
purpose of the
model
experiment
Source:
IPCC 2007 AR4

26
Climate models
Source: IPCC 2007
Differential equations describing dynamics and physics in the climate system:
discretized on a 3-D grid, time dependent numerical solutions (Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL)
condition necessary condition for stability)
and physical parameterisations for subscale processes
Source: IPCC 2007
vertical: e.g. 90 atmospheric levels
horizontal: e.g. 200 x 400 cubes
time step: e.g. 20 minutes
e.g. 10 3D, 130 2D climate variables
integration for centuries ...

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Are the models able to reproduce observed trends?
http://www.ipcc.ch

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Dynamical Downscaling
Modelling all relevant physical processes in a 3-D region using an intern
timestep of 2min to 12sec
Regional models
e.g. REMOx: 50 km to 2.5 km
Global models
e.g. ECHAM x(0°): 400 km to 50 km
Source: based on DKRZ
RCM model
domain
large scale
forcing

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Climate simulations: towards very high resolution
~150 km gridbox length
Global Climate Models
Regional Climate Models
Regional Climate Models at
convection resolving resolution
Instantaneous Near-Surface Temperature at
different model resolutions
Example: Hamburg Metropolitan Region

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Benefits of high resolution climate simulations
More realistic
monsoon
precipitation
in RCM simulations
mean of 3 RCMs driven by 2 GCMs
(1970-1999)
Monsoon precipitation JJAS
m
RCM ~25KmObs ~ 55KmGCM ~200Km
mm/dayPankaj Kumar, High Noon Project, MPI-M
Orography
~300 km
to
~25 km

© Climate Service Center Germany
Reanalysis Data
ERA40 (1960-2000)
ERA-Interim (1980-2013)
Observation
RCM
Validation
Run
RCM
Validation
Regional Models:
REMO
CCLM
RCA4
F o r c i n g
How to derive the climate change signal?
1)

© Climate Service Center Germany
Reanalysis Data
Global Models:
MPI-ESM-LR
EC-EARTH
ERA40 (1960-2000)
ERA-Interim (1980-2013)
GCM Control
Simulations (CMIP5)
GCM Scenario
Simulations (CMIP5)
Observed GHG concentrations (past)
RCP scenarios (future)
Observation
Climate
Change
Signal
RCM
Validation
Run
RCM
Control
Simulations
RCM
Scenario
Simulation
s
RCM
Validation
Comparison
Regional Models:
REMO
CCLM
RCA4
F o r c i n g
How to derive the climate change signal?
1)
2)

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Overall Outline
●
●
●
●
●
regions.
1st
part
2nd
part

34
Climate projections: main sources of spread
Internal climate variabilityInternal climate variability
Variations of climate
due to natural processes inside the climate system
Modelling uncertaintiesModelling uncertainties
Models are a simplified image of the earth climate system
Human actionHuman action
Anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active substancies to the atmosphere
Land use changes
Natural external factorsNatural external factors
Changing natural factors outside the climate system
e.g. solar variabilty, volcanic eruptions

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Climate projections: Ensemble experiments
Internal climate variabilityInternal climate variability
Initial condition ensemble
Human actionHuman action
Emission scenario ensemble
Natural external factorsNatural external factors
Prescribed or constant
Modelling uncertaintiesModelling uncertainties
Multi-model ensemble
sample both modelling uncertainties and initial conditions
ensembles of (best available) opportunities

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Emission scenarios SRES / RCPs
Figure: P. Bowyer; Data based on SRES, IIASA and Global Carbon Project

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CMIP5: Projected global temperature range
Figure created by Ed Hawkins 2014, source: http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2014/cascade-of-uncertainty/
relative to pre-industrial time period

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Overall Outline
●
●
●
●
●
regions.
1st
part
2nd
part

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Brainstorming
Region

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Session on integrative modeling

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Multi-model ensemble CMIP5 and CMIP3
Source: IPCC 2013 AR5 Chapter 9
MIPs Model Intercompariso Projects (since 1990):
standard experiment protocol and an world wide
community-based infrastructure in support of model
simulations, validation, intercomparison,
documentation and data access.
CMIP3: coordinated climate projections, based on
emission scenarios from SRES, global model basis
for IPCC AR4
CMIP5: a new set of coordinated, based on the new
RCPs, global model basis for IPCC AR5

44
Regional climate simulations: WCRP CORDEX
14 domains with a
resolution of
0.44° x 0.44°
(approx. 50 x
50km²)
High resolution
simulations
with 0.11° x 0.11°
(approx. 12 x
12km²)
for Europe
CORDEX data available via Earth System Grid Federation: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/

CORDEX focus on Africa

GERICS participates in many CORDEX-regions
(adapted from F. Giorgi)

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CORDEX vision and goals
The CORDEX vision is to advance and coordinate the science and application of
regional climate downscaling through global partnerships.

To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena, their variability and
changes, through downscaling.

To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques

To produce coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections worldwide

To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of regional climate information
Emerging scientific challenges

Added value

Human element

Coordination of regional coupled modelling

Precipitation

Local wind systems
CORDEX domains
(adapted from F. Giorgi)
Great parts of the information of climate
change is based on CORDEX activities

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CORDEX-CORE
Horizontal resolution: 0.22° (~25km) resolution
Forcing: re-analysis (ERA-Interim), RPC2.6 and RCP8.5 driven global
simulations
GCMs: HadGEM (backup: MIROC5), MPI-ESM (backup: EC-Earth),
NorESM (backup: GFDL-ESM)
RCMs: REMO, RegCM, (CLM)
Towards a homogeneous high-resolution simulation dataset for the world
CORDEX-CORE model domains as setup for simulations by the regional climate model REMO.
Domains from top-left to bottom right: North America, Central America, South America, EURO-CORDEX, Africa, South
Asia, East Asia, Australasia.
Orographically structured area.

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CORDEX-CORE
Horizontal resolution: 0.22° (~25km) resolution
Forcing: re-analysis (ERA-Interim), RPC2.6 and RCP8.5 driven global
simulations
GCMs: HadGEM (backup: MIROC5), MPI-ESM (backup: EC-Earth),
NorESM (backup: GFDL-ESM)
RCMs: REMO, RegCM, CLM
Towards a homogeneous high-resolution simulation dataset for the world
CORDEX-CORE model domains as setup for simulations by the regional climate model REMO.
Domains from top-left to bottom right: North America, Central America, South America, EURO-CORDEX, Africa, South
Asia, East Asia, Australasia.
Orographically structured area.
The main ideas of the CORDEX CORE framework are
 to use a core set of RCMs
 to downscale a core set of GCMs
 to cover the major inhabited areas of the world
 to use different representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
 to incrementally extend the CORDEX-CORE ensemble with
further contributions by additional models/experiments
The main ideas of the CORDEX CORE framework are
 to use a core set of RCMs
 to downscale a core set of GCMs
 to cover the major inhabited areas of the world
 to use different representative concentration pathways (RCPs)
 to incrementally extend the CORDEX-CORE ensemble with
further contributions by additional models/experiments

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CORDEX Points Of Contact
For each CORDEX
region, POCs are
listed on
www.cordex.org

50
CORDEX Points Of Contact
For each CORDEX
region, POCs are
listed on
www.cordex.org
http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/cordex-africa

51
Accessing simulation data
https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/

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Accessing observation data
www.ncdc.noaa.gov

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Accessing observation data
www.ncdc.noaa.gov

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Further information

Accessing observation data:

www.ncdc.noaa.gov

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html

Accessing reanalysis data

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets

https://climate.copernicus.eu -> climate data store

Accessing simulation data:

https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/

https://climate4impact.eu/impactportal/general/index.jsp

https://climate.copernicus.eu -> climate data store

55
Overall Outline
●
●
●
●
●
regions.
1st
part
2nd
part

56
Current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change:
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/
5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change:
WGI 2013, WGII, WGIII,SYR 2014
IPCC Assessment Report 5

57
Quick visualization of simulation data
Monthly values can easily be accessed by KNMI climate change atlas:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py

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Monthly values can easily be accessed by KNMI climate change atlas:

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LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE
CORDEX-CORE orography (25km resolution)

EXAMPLES: Number of Frost Days (FD)
FUTURE PERIODS:
PERIOD1: 2011 - 2040 NEAR TERM
PERIOD2: 2041 - 2070 MEDIUM TERM
PERIOD3: 2071 - 2100 LONG TERM
MOKOENA FRANCE
REFERENCE/BASELINE: 1971-2000
Data used:
CORDEX-Africa-0.44
(50km resolution)

EXAMPLES: Projected winter pr change
FUTURE PERIODS:
PERIOD1: 2011 - 2040 NEAR TERM
PERIOD2: 2041 - 2070 MEDIUM TERM
PERIOD3: 2071 - 2100 LONG TERM
MOKOENA FRANCE
REFERENCE/BASELINE: 1971-2000
Data used:
CORDEX-Africa-0.44
(50km resolution)

62
Concise climate
characteristics of
individual countries
or regions
Available on request:
www.climate-service-center.de/climate-fact-sheets
Jointly developed with
Example-pages from CFS: Burkina Faso – Togo – Ghana
Example: GERICS Climate-Fact-Sheets

65
Detailed description of temporal
development projected changes
Expert Judgement on signal strength
and confidence
based on
- statistical significance & magnitude of absolute
change
- quality of simulations in comparison to
observations
- signal-to-noise ratio of projected changes
- agreement of model simulations
Main elements of a Climate-Fact-Sheets

66
Global
Country
Federal
Global
Climate-Signal-Maps
Climate-
Fact-Sheets
Bundesländer
Fact-Sheets
Local
Site-characteristic
Climate-Fact-Sheets
cross-sectoral Climate-Focus Paper Sector-specific Climate Impact Fact-Sheets
Fact-Sheet concept covers global scales and issues

72
Publications
 National Assessment on Climate Change
 GERICS Reports
 Studies, Brochures and Documentations
 Klima konkret
 Newsletter
 Books
 GERICS articles at Earth System Knowledge Platform
(ESKP) of Helmholtz-Association
 Publications in scientific journals
Webportals
 IMPACT2C Web-Atlas
 Klimanavigator
 Document Server Climate Change
(Dokumentenserver Klimawandel)
Fact Sheets
 Climate Fact Sheets
 Site-characteristic Climate-Fact-Sheets
 GERICS Climate-Focus-Paper
Toolkits
 Adaptation toolkit for Cities (Stadtbaukasten)
 Adaptation toolkit for Companies (Unternehmensbaukasten)
 Regional modeling toolkit (Regionaler Modellierbaukasten)
Maps and Visualizations
 GERICS Climate Signal Maps
 GERICS Climate Signal Maps (global)
 GERICS Rain Map
Trainings
 Customer specific training
 Sector specific training
 Capacity building programmes for countries
in Africa, Asia and Latin-America
 Publications and tools supporting our capacity building measures
Examples: GERICS products in a nutshell

73
For further information: Visit GERICS online
Key interfaces to users and practitioners are the GERICS web-services. The main gateway is
the homepage, which is available in German, English, and in Arabic (only main pages).
www.gerics.de

74
Further information


KNMI: Climate Explorer


SMHI: Regional climate change in a 1.5 degrees warmer world

https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/global-warming-levels#sc=15C

SMHI: Climate Scenarios

https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios

75
Further information

Accessing climate change information

Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank

http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/

UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles

http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/projects/undp-cp/

Copernicus Climate Change Services (focus on Europe, but
examples and plans for extension to the world)

https://climate.copernicus.eu/

Guidelines

Guidance for EURO-CORDEX climate projections data use (mostly
applicable also to other regions)

http://guidelines.euro-cordex.net

Global Warming of 1.5°C
An IPCC special report on the impacts of
global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial
levels and related global greenhouse gas
emission pathways, in the context of
strengthening the global response to the
threat of climate change, sustainable
development, and efforts to eradicate
poverty.
1

3
The report in numbers
91 Authors from 40 Countries
133 Contributing authors
6000 Studies 1 113 Reviewers
42 001 Comments

Understanding Global Warming of
1.5°C
4

Where are we now?
Since pre-industrial times, human activities have
caused approximately 1°C of global warming.
• Already seeing consequences for people, nature
and livelihoods
• At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030
and 2052
• Past emissions alone do not commit the world to
1.5°C
5
Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos

Projected Climate Change,
Potential Impacts and
Associated Risks
6

Impacts of global warming 1.5°C
• Less extreme weather where people live,
including extreme heat and rainfall
• By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around
10 cm lower but may continue to rise for
centuries
• 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of rising
seas
At 1.5°C compared to 2°C:
7
Jason Florio / Aurora Photos

• Lower impact on biodiversity and species
• Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat
• Global population exposed to increased water
shortages is up to 50% less
7

• Lower risk to fisheries and the livelihoods that
depend on them
• Up to several hundred million fewer people
exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to
poverty by 2050
7

86
Example: IMPACT2C web-atlas
GERICS coordinated the EU Project IMPACT2C: Estimating the key impacts of a +2°C climate
change signal for different regions and sectors of the world. The IMPACT2C web-atlas provides
climate change information for the development of possible adaptation strategies.
www.atlas.impact2c.eu

92
Example: A method to assess climate change at +2°C
Vautard et al., 2018

93
Example: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C
●
Data basis:
●
E-OBS as reference
●
EURO-CORDEX ensemble
●
Fixed population density data for 2015 interpolated to EUR-11
●
30 year periods in which the driving GCM projects a +1.5°C,
+2°C and +3°C global warming level
●
Significance test
●
Mann-Whitney-U test (90% confidence level)
●
Ensemble-CCS is significant if >66% of simulations show a
significant CCS
●
Aim: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C global warming
level compared to 2°C and 3°C global warming

94
Example: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C
Hot days per year
E-
Obs
CCS under
+1.5°C
CCS(+2°C) –
CCS(+1.5°C)
CCS(+3°C) –
CCS(+1.5°C)
CCS under +1.5°CE-Obs
CCS(+3°C) – CCS(+1.5°C)CCS(+2°C) – CCS(+1.5°C)
Teichmann et al., 2018

95
Overall Outline
●
●
●
●
●
regions.
1st
part
2nd
part

96
Brainstorming
Region

97

98
https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios

99

100
Dimensions Policies/tools
Global Global goal on adaptation
Regional /
Continental
Regional Strategies
National
National Adaptation Plans -
Strategies
National Communications
Subnational
Cities / Sectoral Adaptation
Plans
Local
Adaptation implementation /
undertaking / efforts
GERICS R&D strategy:
• Networking
• Modeling
• Prototype development
• Capacity building
→ service needs science
GERICS: science for solutions
Adaptation strategies across local to global scales

101
Capacity
Building
System Dynamics
Dimensions Policies/tools
Global Global goal on adaptation
Regional /
Continental
Regional Strategies
National
National Adaptation Plans -
Strategies
National Communications
Subnational
Cities / Sectoral Adaptation
Plans
Local
Adaptation implementation /
undertaking / efforts
Adaptation strategies across local to global scales
GERICS: science for solutions

102
• Climate models deliver a valuable tool for the assessment of
potential future climate change
• One has to know how to interpret the data of climate models and
one has to be careful to not over interpret
• Climate models are suspect to uncertainty
• Never rely a decision on the
output of a single model or emission
scenario
• Build on existing knowledge and
expertise
• Regional expertise is essential
Things to remember when using climate data
Contact:
Claas Teichmann
Climate Service Center Germany
Fischertwiete 1
20095 Hamburg
claas.teichmann@hzg.de
www.climate-service-center.de

103
• Climate models deliver a valuable tool for the assessment of
potential future climate change
• One has to know how to interpret the data of climate models and
one has to be careful to not over interpret
• Climate models are suspect to uncertainty
• Never rely a decision on the
output of a single model or emission
scenario
• Build on existing knowledge and
expertise
• Regional expertise is essential
Things to remember when using climate data
Contact:
Claas Teichmann
Fischertwiete 1
20095 Hamburg
Parallel Session tomorrow in Room 205
Parallel Session 5.3: Mediated modeling: using
systems dynamics to build collaborative tools
(GERICS, NAP technical working group)

120
Contact:
Claas Teichmann
Fischertwiete 1
20095 Hamburg
Contact

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