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3.3 Climate data and projections

This document summarizes a presentation on climate data and projections focusing on limiting global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius. It discusses the work of GERICS (the Climate Service Center Germany) in developing solutions for regional climate modeling, impacts analysis, and climate adaptation toolkits. Key points covered include: - GERICS' interdisciplinary approach to regional climate modeling, impacts assessment, and stakeholder engagement. - The development of adaptation toolkits for cities, companies, and other sectors to facilitate climate risk assessment and planning. - An overview of the presentation, covering topics like climate modeling techniques, accessing climate projections data, and visualizing and analyzing climate information.

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Titelmasterformat bearbeiten Parallel Session 3.3: Climate data and projections with a focus on <2°C (GERICS) Claas Teichmann and the GERICS team NAP Expo 2019 8-12 April 2019, Songdo, South Korea
2 We develop innovative, cutting-edge solutions  regional climate modelling  regional system modelling  climate change impacts  economics and politics  transdisciplinary processes  prototype product development  inter- and transdisciplinary approaches  application of climate service infrastructure  evaluation of climate services  climate-fact-sheets and focus papers  maps and visualisations  modular toolkits  training concepts  books, reports and studies  strategic partnerships and associates  creating and facilitating networks  hosting secretariats  operationalising climate services  continuous user interaction Interlinking Science and Society
3 • Toolkit for cities • Toolkit for companies • Regional modelling toolkit Adaptation Toolkits Adaptation ToolkitsSOCIETAL NEEDS Adaptation • Climate signal maps • Rain maps Maps & visualizations Maps & visualizations • Climate Fact Sheets • Site-characteristic Climate-Fact- Sheets • Climate-Focus- PapersFact SheetsFact Sheets Selection Identification of adaptation measures Identification of climate change impacts Climate change scenarios Description of region under study or sector of interest Lay the groundwork and address gaps Preparatory elements Implementation strategies Reporting, monitoring and review Products for adaptation
4 Urban water Specific urban Climate information Climate adapted urban development Thermal comfort and housing environment Urban green Communication Combined mitigation and adaptation concepts Economics and financing Monitoring and quality assurance Critical infrastructure Interfaces: e.g. to Adaptation Toolkit for companies GERICS Adaptation Toolkit for Cities
5 Overall Outline ● Introduction to climate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
6 Brainstorming How does climate change affect your region? Region Climate Change affect Variables/indicators
7 Overall Outline ● Introduction to climate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
9 Earth without atmosphere S0 : solar constant = ~1360 W/m2 S0 4 (1− α)=σTe 4 : albedo~0.3 : Boltzman constant -18°C Courtesy M. Reuter
10 Earth with atmosphere +15°C Courtesy M. Reuter
11 Greenhouse effect http://www.physicalgeography.net
12 Greenhouse effect Source: based on IPCC 2007 The climate system
13 Main drivers of climate change
14 Global Fossil CO2 Emissions Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%) Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) https://www.globalcarbonproject.org
15 CO2 concentration in the Atmosphere 1960-2017 Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
17 Global average sea level change Source: IPCC 2013 AR5 WGI
18 Twelve warmest years between 1880-2016 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, published October 2017, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
19 Summer 2003: Heatwave over Europe Quelle: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies source: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Inst. f. Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Univ. Karlsruhe
20 Summer 2003: Heatwave over Europe Quelle: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies source: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Inst. f. Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Univ. Karlsruhe Heatwaves are regional phenomena and a vary in time and space
21 Heatwave 2003 Jun/Jul/Aug temperature in switzerland Quelle: IPCC, 2007; Schär et al, 2004
22 Heatwave 2003 Jun/Jul/Aug temperature in switzerland Quelle: IPCC, 2007; Schär et al, 2004 The outstanding heatwave of 2003, might become a standard summer at the end of the century
23 Global average near surface temperatures relative to the pre-industrial period https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-8/assessment
24 Global average near surface temperatures relative to the pre-industrial period https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-8/assessment Will the increase in global average temperature stay below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels?
25 Greenhouse effect Development depends on the understanding of the physical processes of the climate system and the availability of observation data Utilization depends on the relevance of the processes for the cliamate system And on the purpose of the model experiment Source: IPCC 2007 AR4
26 Climate models Source: IPCC 2007 Differential equations describing dynamics and physics in the climate system: discretized on a 3-D grid, time dependent numerical solutions (Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) condition necessary condition for stability) and physical parameterisations for subscale processes Source: IPCC 2007 vertical: e.g. 90 atmospheric levels horizontal: e.g. 200 x 400 cubes time step: e.g. 20 minutes e.g. 10 3D, 130 2D climate variables integration for centuries ...
27 Are the models able to reproduce observed trends? http://www.ipcc.ch
28 Dynamical Downscaling Modelling all relevant physical processes in a 3-D region using an intern timestep of 2min to 12sec Regional models e.g. REMOx: 50 km to 2.5 km Global models e.g. ECHAM x(0°): 400 km to 50 km Source: based on DKRZ RCM model domain large scale forcing
29 Climate simulations: towards very high resolution ~150 km gridbox length ~12 km gridbox length ~3 km gridbox length Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models Regional Climate Models at convection resolving resolution Instantaneous Near-Surface Temperature at different model resolutions Example: Hamburg Metropolitan Region
30 Benefits of high resolution climate simulations More realistic monsoon precipitation in RCM simulations mean of 3 RCMs driven by 2 GCMs (1970-1999) Monsoon precipitation JJAS m RCM ~25KmObs ~ 55KmGCM ~200Km mm/dayPankaj Kumar, High Noon Project, MPI-M Orography ~300 km to ~25 km
© Climate Service Center Germany Source: based on IPCC 2007 Reanalysis Data ERA40 (1960-2000) ERA-Interim (1980-2013) Observation RCM Validation Run RCM Validation Regional Models: REMO CCLM RCA4 F o r c i n g Dynamical Downscaling How to derive the climate change signal? 1)
© Climate Service Center Germany Source: based on IPCC 2007 Reanalysis Data Global Models: MPI-ESM-LR EC-EARTH ERA40 (1960-2000) ERA-Interim (1980-2013) GCM Control Simulations (CMIP5) GCM Scenario Simulations (CMIP5) Observed GHG concentrations (past) RCP scenarios (future) Observation Climate Change Signal RCM Validation Run RCM Control Simulations RCM Scenario Simulation s RCM Validation Comparison Regional Models: REMO CCLM RCA4 F o r c i n g Dynamical Downscaling How to derive the climate change signal? 1) 2)
33 Overall Outline ● Introduction to climate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
34 Climate projections: main sources of spread Internal climate variabilityInternal climate variability Variations of climate due to natural processes inside the climate system Modelling uncertaintiesModelling uncertainties Models are a simplified image of the earth climate system Human actionHuman action Anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active substancies to the atmosphere Land use changes Natural external factorsNatural external factors Changing natural factors outside the climate system e.g. solar variabilty, volcanic eruptions
36 Climate projections: Ensemble experiments Internal climate variabilityInternal climate variability Initial condition ensemble Human actionHuman action Emission scenario ensemble Natural external factorsNatural external factors Prescribed or constant Modelling uncertaintiesModelling uncertainties Multi-model ensemble sample both modelling uncertainties and initial conditions ensembles of (best available) opportunities
37 Emission scenarios SRES / RCPs Figure: P. Bowyer; Data based on SRES, IIASA and Global Carbon Project
38 CMIP5: Projected global temperature range Figure created by Ed Hawkins 2014, source: http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2014/cascade-of-uncertainty/ relative to pre-industrial time period
39 Overall Outline ● Introduction to climate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
40 Brainstorming How does climate change affect your region? Region Climate Change affect Variables/indicators
41 Session on integrative modeling
43 Multi-model ensemble CMIP5 and CMIP3 Source: IPCC 2013 AR5 Chapter 9 MIPs Model Intercompariso Projects (since 1990): standard experiment protocol and an world wide community-based infrastructure in support of model simulations, validation, intercomparison, documentation and data access. CMIP3: coordinated climate projections, based on emission scenarios from SRES, global model basis for IPCC AR4 CMIP5: a new set of coordinated, based on the new RCPs, global model basis for IPCC AR5
44 Regional climate simulations: WCRP CORDEX 14 domains with a resolution of 0.44° x 0.44° (approx. 50 x 50km²) High resolution simulations with 0.11° x 0.11° (approx. 12 x 12km²) for Europe CORDEX data available via Earth System Grid Federation: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/  CORDEX focus on Africa  GERICS participates in many CORDEX-regions (adapted from F. Giorgi)
45 CORDEX vision and goals The CORDEX vision is to advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships.  To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena, their variability and changes, through downscaling.  To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques  To produce coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections worldwide  To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of regional climate information Emerging scientific challenges  Added value  Human element  Coordination of regional coupled modelling  Precipitation  Local wind systems CORDEX domains (adapted from F. Giorgi) Great parts of the information of climate change is based on CORDEX activities
47 CORDEX-CORE Horizontal resolution: 0.22° (~25km) resolution Forcing: re-analysis (ERA-Interim), RPC2.6 and RCP8.5 driven global simulations GCMs: HadGEM (backup: MIROC5), MPI-ESM (backup: EC-Earth), NorESM (backup: GFDL-ESM) RCMs: REMO, RegCM, (CLM) Towards a homogeneous high-resolution simulation dataset for the world CORDEX-CORE model domains as setup for simulations by the regional climate model REMO. Domains from top-left to bottom right: North America, Central America, South America, EURO-CORDEX, Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia. Orographically structured area.
48 CORDEX-CORE Horizontal resolution: 0.22° (~25km) resolution Forcing: re-analysis (ERA-Interim), RPC2.6 and RCP8.5 driven global simulations GCMs: HadGEM (backup: MIROC5), MPI-ESM (backup: EC-Earth), NorESM (backup: GFDL-ESM) RCMs: REMO, RegCM, CLM Towards a homogeneous high-resolution simulation dataset for the world CORDEX-CORE model domains as setup for simulations by the regional climate model REMO. Domains from top-left to bottom right: North America, Central America, South America, EURO-CORDEX, Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia. Orographically structured area. The main ideas of the CORDEX CORE framework are  to use a core set of RCMs  to downscale a core set of GCMs  to cover the major inhabited areas of the world  to use different representative concentration pathways (RCPs)  to incrementally extend the CORDEX-CORE ensemble with further contributions by additional models/experiments The main ideas of the CORDEX CORE framework are  to use a core set of RCMs  to downscale a core set of GCMs  to cover the major inhabited areas of the world  to use different representative concentration pathways (RCPs)  to incrementally extend the CORDEX-CORE ensemble with further contributions by additional models/experiments
49 CORDEX Points Of Contact For each CORDEX region, POCs are listed on www.cordex.org
50 CORDEX Points Of Contact For each CORDEX region, POCs are listed on www.cordex.org http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/cordex-africa
51 Accessing simulation data https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/
52 Accessing observation data www.ncdc.noaa.gov
53 Accessing observation data www.ncdc.noaa.gov
54 Further information  Accessing observation data:  www.ncdc.noaa.gov  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html  Accessing reanalysis data  https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets  https://climate.copernicus.eu -> climate data store  Accessing simulation data:  https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/  https://climate4impact.eu/impactportal/general/index.jsp  https://climate.copernicus.eu -> climate data store
55 Overall Outline ● Introduction to climate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
56 Current state of scientific knowledge relevant to climate change: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: WGI 2013, WGII, WGIII,SYR 2014 IPCC Assessment Report 5
57 Quick visualization of simulation data Monthly values can easily be accessed by KNMI climate change atlas: http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
58 Quick visualization of simulation data Monthly values can easily be accessed by KNMI climate change atlas: http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
59 LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE CORDEX-CORE orography (25km resolution)
EXAMPLES: Number of Frost Days (FD) LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE FUTURE PERIODS: PERIOD1: 2011 - 2040 NEAR TERM PERIOD2: 2041 - 2070 MEDIUM TERM PERIOD3: 2071 - 2100 LONG TERM MOKOENA FRANCE REFERENCE/BASELINE: 1971-2000 Data used: CORDEX-Africa-0.44 (50km resolution)
EXAMPLES: Projected winter pr change LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE FUTURE PERIODS: PERIOD1: 2011 - 2040 NEAR TERM PERIOD2: 2041 - 2070 MEDIUM TERM PERIOD3: 2071 - 2100 LONG TERM MOKOENA FRANCE REFERENCE/BASELINE: 1971-2000 Data used: CORDEX-Africa-0.44 (50km resolution)
62 Concise climate characteristics of individual countries or regions Available on request: www.climate-service-center.de/climate-fact-sheets Jointly developed with Example-pages from CFS: Burkina Faso – Togo – Ghana Example: GERICS Climate-Fact-Sheets
65 Detailed description of temporal development projected changes Expert Judgement on signal strength and confidence based on - statistical significance & magnitude of absolute change - quality of simulations in comparison to observations - signal-to-noise ratio of projected changes - agreement of model simulations Main elements of a Climate-Fact-Sheets
66 Global Country Federal Global Climate-Signal-Maps Climate- Fact-Sheets Bundesländer Fact-Sheets Local Site-characteristic Climate-Fact-Sheets cross-sectoral Climate-Focus Paper Sector-specific Climate Impact Fact-Sheets Fact-Sheet concept covers global scales and issues
72 Publications  National Assessment on Climate Change  GERICS Reports  Studies, Brochures and Documentations  Klima konkret  Newsletter  Books  GERICS articles at Earth System Knowledge Platform (ESKP) of Helmholtz-Association  Publications in scientific journals Webportals  IMPACT2C Web-Atlas  Klimanavigator  Document Server Climate Change (Dokumentenserver Klimawandel) Fact Sheets  Climate Fact Sheets  Site-characteristic Climate-Fact-Sheets  GERICS Climate-Focus-Paper Toolkits  Adaptation toolkit for Cities (Stadtbaukasten)  Adaptation toolkit for Companies (Unternehmensbaukasten)  Regional modeling toolkit (Regionaler Modellierbaukasten) Maps and Visualizations  GERICS Climate Signal Maps  GERICS Climate Signal Maps (global)  GERICS Rain Map Trainings  Customer specific training  Sector specific training  Capacity building programmes for countries in Africa, Asia and Latin-America  Publications and tools supporting our capacity building measures Examples: GERICS products in a nutshell
73 For further information: Visit GERICS online Key interfaces to users and practitioners are the GERICS web-services. The main gateway is the homepage, which is available in German, English, and in Arabic (only main pages). www.gerics.de
74 Further information  Quick visualization of simulation data  KNMI: Climate Explorer  http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py  SMHI: Regional climate change in a 1.5 degrees warmer world  https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/global-warming-levels#sc=15C  SMHI: Climate Scenarios  https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios
75 Further information  Accessing climate change information  Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank  http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/  UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles  http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/projects/undp-cp/  Copernicus Climate Change Services (focus on Europe, but examples and plans for extension to the world)  https://climate.copernicus.eu/  Guidelines  Guidance for EURO-CORDEX climate projections data use (mostly applicable also to other regions)  http://guidelines.euro-cordex.net
Global Warming of 1.5°C An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.  1
2
3 The report in numbers 91 Authors from 40 Countries 133 Contributing authors 6000 Studies 1 113 Reviewers 42 001 Comments
Understanding Global Warming of 1.5°C 4
Where are we now? Since pre-industrial times, human activities have caused approximately 1°C of global warming. • Already seeing consequences for people, nature and livelihoods • At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 • Past emissions alone do not commit the world to 1.5°C 5 Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos
Projected Climate Change, Potential Impacts and Associated Risks 6
Impacts of global warming 1.5°C • Less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat and rainfall • By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around 10 cm lower but may continue to rise for centuries • 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of rising seas At 1.5°C compared to 2°C: 7 Jason Florio / Aurora Photos
Impacts of global warming 1.5°C At 1.5°C compared to 2°C: • Lower impact on biodiversity and species • Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat • Global population exposed to increased water shortages is up to 50% less 7 Jason Florio / Aurora Photos
Impacts of global warming 1.5°C At 1.5°C compared to 2°C: • Lower risk to fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them • Up to several hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050 7 Jason Florio / Aurora Photos
86 Example: IMPACT2C web-atlas GERICS coordinated the EU Project IMPACT2C: Estimating the key impacts of a +2°C climate change signal for different regions and sectors of the world. The IMPACT2C web-atlas provides climate change information for the development of possible adaptation strategies. www.atlas.impact2c.eu
92 Example: A method to assess climate change at +2°C Vautard et al., 2018
93 Example: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C ● Data basis: ● E-OBS as reference ● EURO-CORDEX ensemble ● Fixed population density data for 2015 interpolated to EUR-11 ● 30 year periods in which the driving GCM projects a +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C global warming level ● Significance test ● Mann-Whitney-U test (90% confidence level) ● Ensemble-CCS is significant if >66% of simulations show a significant CCS ● Aim: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C global warming level compared to 2°C and 3°C global warming
94 Example: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C Hot days per year E- Obs CCS under +1.5°C CCS(+2°C) – CCS(+1.5°C) CCS(+3°C) – CCS(+1.5°C) CCS under +1.5°CE-Obs CCS(+3°C) – CCS(+1.5°C)CCS(+2°C) – CCS(+1.5°C) Teichmann et al., 2018
95 Overall Outline ● Introduction to climate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
96 Brainstorming How does climate change affect your region? Region Climate Change affect Variables/indicators
97 Quick visualization of simulation data http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
98 Quick visualization of simulation data https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios
99 Quick visualization of simulation data
100 Dimensions Policies/tools Global Global goal on adaptation Regional / Continental Regional Strategies National National Adaptation Plans - Strategies National Communications Subnational Cities / Sectoral Adaptation Plans Local Adaptation implementation / undertaking / efforts GERICS R&D strategy: • Networking • Modeling • Prototype development • Capacity building → service needs science GERICS: science for solutions Adaptation strategies across local to global scales
101 Capacity Building System Dynamics Dimensions Policies/tools Global Global goal on adaptation Regional / Continental Regional Strategies National National Adaptation Plans - Strategies National Communications Subnational Cities / Sectoral Adaptation Plans Local Adaptation implementation / undertaking / efforts Adaptation strategies across local to global scales GERICS: science for solutions
102 • Climate models deliver a valuable tool for the assessment of potential future climate change • One has to know how to interpret the data of climate models and one has to be careful to not over interpret • Climate models are suspect to uncertainty • Never rely a decision on the output of a single model or emission scenario • Build on existing knowledge and expertise • Regional expertise is essential Things to remember when using climate data Contact: Claas Teichmann Climate Service Center Germany Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg claas.teichmann@hzg.de www.climate-service-center.de
103 • Climate models deliver a valuable tool for the assessment of potential future climate change • One has to know how to interpret the data of climate models and one has to be careful to not over interpret • Climate models are suspect to uncertainty • Never rely a decision on the output of a single model or emission scenario • Build on existing knowledge and expertise • Regional expertise is essential Things to remember when using climate data Contact: Claas Teichmann Climate Service Center Germany Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg claas.teichmann@hzg.de www.climate-service-center.de Parallel Session tomorrow in Room 205 Parallel Session 5.3: Mediated modeling: using systems dynamics to build collaborative tools (GERICS, NAP technical working group)
120 Contact: Claas Teichmann Climate Service Center Germany Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg claas.teichmann@hzg.de www.climate-service-center.de Contact

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3.3 Climate data and projections

  • 1.
    Titelmasterformat bearbeiten Parallel Session3.3: Climate data and projections with a focus on <2°C (GERICS) Claas Teichmann and the GERICS team NAP Expo 2019 8-12 April 2019, Songdo, South Korea
  • 2.
    2 We develop innovative,cutting-edge solutions  regional climate modelling  regional system modelling  climate change impacts  economics and politics  transdisciplinary processes  prototype product development  inter- and transdisciplinary approaches  application of climate service infrastructure  evaluation of climate services  climate-fact-sheets and focus papers  maps and visualisations  modular toolkits  training concepts  books, reports and studies  strategic partnerships and associates  creating and facilitating networks  hosting secretariats  operationalising climate services  continuous user interaction Interlinking Science and Society
  • 3.
    3 • Toolkit forcities • Toolkit for companies • Regional modelling toolkit Adaptation Toolkits Adaptation ToolkitsSOCIETAL NEEDS Adaptation • Climate signal maps • Rain maps Maps & visualizations Maps & visualizations • Climate Fact Sheets • Site-characteristic Climate-Fact- Sheets • Climate-Focus- PapersFact SheetsFact Sheets Selection Identification of adaptation measures Identification of climate change impacts Climate change scenarios Description of region under study or sector of interest Lay the groundwork and address gaps Preparatory elements Implementation strategies Reporting, monitoring and review Products for adaptation
  • 4.
    4 Urban water Specific urban Climateinformation Climate adapted urban development Thermal comfort and housing environment Urban green Communication Combined mitigation and adaptation concepts Economics and financing Monitoring and quality assurance Critical infrastructure Interfaces: e.g. to Adaptation Toolkit for companies GERICS Adaptation Toolkit for Cities
  • 5.
    5 Overall Outline ● Introduction toclimate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
  • 6.
    6 Brainstorming How does climatechange affect your region? Region Climate Change affect Variables/indicators
  • 7.
    7 Overall Outline ● Introduction toclimate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
  • 8.
    9 Earth without atmosphere S0 :solar constant = ~1360 W/m2 S0 4 (1− α)=σTe 4 : albedo~0.3 : Boltzman constant -18°C Courtesy M. Reuter
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
    12 Greenhouse effect Source: basedon IPCC 2007 The climate system
  • 12.
    13 Main drivers ofclimate change
  • 13.
    14 Global Fossil CO2Emissions Global fossil CO2 emissions: 36.2 ± 2 GtCO2 in 2017, 63% over 1990 Projection for 2018: 37.1 ± 2 GtCO2, 2.7% higher than 2017 (range 1.8% to 3.7%) Estimates for 2015, 2016 and 2017 are preliminary; 2018 is a projection based on partial data. Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2018; Global Carbon Budget 2018 Uncertainty is ±5% for one standard deviation (IPCC “likely” range) https://www.globalcarbonproject.org
  • 14.
    15 CO2 concentration in theAtmosphere 1960-2017 Source: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
  • 15.
    17 Global average sealevel change Source: IPCC 2013 AR5 WGI
  • 16.
    18 Twelve warmest yearsbetween 1880-2016 NOAA National Centers for Environmental information, Climate at a Glance: Global Time Series, published October 2017, http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/
  • 17.
    19 Summer 2003: Heatwaveover Europe Quelle: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies source: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Inst. f. Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Univ. Karlsruhe
  • 18.
    20 Summer 2003: Heatwaveover Europe Quelle: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies source: Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Inst. f. Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Univ. Karlsruhe Heatwaves are regional phenomena and a vary in time and space
  • 19.
    21 Heatwave 2003 Jun/Jul/Augtemperature in switzerland Quelle: IPCC, 2007; Schär et al, 2004
  • 20.
    22 Heatwave 2003 Jun/Jul/Augtemperature in switzerland Quelle: IPCC, 2007; Schär et al, 2004 The outstanding heatwave of 2003, might become a standard summer at the end of the century
  • 21.
    23 Global average nearsurface temperatures relative to the pre-industrial period https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-8/assessment
  • 22.
    24 Global average nearsurface temperatures relative to the pre-industrial period https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/indicators/global-and-european-temperature-8/assessment Will the increase in global average temperature stay below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels?
  • 23.
    25 Greenhouse effect Development depends onthe understanding of the physical processes of the climate system and the availability of observation data Utilization depends on the relevance of the processes for the cliamate system And on the purpose of the model experiment Source: IPCC 2007 AR4
  • 24.
    26 Climate models Source: IPCC2007 Differential equations describing dynamics and physics in the climate system: discretized on a 3-D grid, time dependent numerical solutions (Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy (CFL) condition necessary condition for stability) and physical parameterisations for subscale processes Source: IPCC 2007 vertical: e.g. 90 atmospheric levels horizontal: e.g. 200 x 400 cubes time step: e.g. 20 minutes e.g. 10 3D, 130 2D climate variables integration for centuries ...
  • 25.
    27 Are the modelsable to reproduce observed trends? http://www.ipcc.ch
  • 26.
    28 Dynamical Downscaling Modelling allrelevant physical processes in a 3-D region using an intern timestep of 2min to 12sec Regional models e.g. REMOx: 50 km to 2.5 km Global models e.g. ECHAM x(0°): 400 km to 50 km Source: based on DKRZ RCM model domain large scale forcing
  • 27.
    29 Climate simulations: towardsvery high resolution ~150 km gridbox length ~12 km gridbox length ~3 km gridbox length Global Climate Models Regional Climate Models Regional Climate Models at convection resolving resolution Instantaneous Near-Surface Temperature at different model resolutions Example: Hamburg Metropolitan Region
  • 28.
    30 Benefits of highresolution climate simulations More realistic monsoon precipitation in RCM simulations mean of 3 RCMs driven by 2 GCMs (1970-1999) Monsoon precipitation JJAS m RCM ~25KmObs ~ 55KmGCM ~200Km mm/dayPankaj Kumar, High Noon Project, MPI-M Orography ~300 km to ~25 km
  • 29.
    © Climate ServiceCenter Germany Source: based on IPCC 2007 Reanalysis Data ERA40 (1960-2000) ERA-Interim (1980-2013) Observation RCM Validation Run RCM Validation Regional Models: REMO CCLM RCA4 F o r c i n g Dynamical Downscaling How to derive the climate change signal? 1)
  • 30.
    © Climate ServiceCenter Germany Source: based on IPCC 2007 Reanalysis Data Global Models: MPI-ESM-LR EC-EARTH ERA40 (1960-2000) ERA-Interim (1980-2013) GCM Control Simulations (CMIP5) GCM Scenario Simulations (CMIP5) Observed GHG concentrations (past) RCP scenarios (future) Observation Climate Change Signal RCM Validation Run RCM Control Simulations RCM Scenario Simulation s RCM Validation Comparison Regional Models: REMO CCLM RCA4 F o r c i n g Dynamical Downscaling How to derive the climate change signal? 1) 2)
  • 31.
    33 Overall Outline ● Introduction toclimate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
  • 32.
    34 Climate projections: mainsources of spread Internal climate variabilityInternal climate variability Variations of climate due to natural processes inside the climate system Modelling uncertaintiesModelling uncertainties Models are a simplified image of the earth climate system Human actionHuman action Anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active substancies to the atmosphere Land use changes Natural external factorsNatural external factors Changing natural factors outside the climate system e.g. solar variabilty, volcanic eruptions
  • 33.
    36 Climate projections: Ensembleexperiments Internal climate variabilityInternal climate variability Initial condition ensemble Human actionHuman action Emission scenario ensemble Natural external factorsNatural external factors Prescribed or constant Modelling uncertaintiesModelling uncertainties Multi-model ensemble sample both modelling uncertainties and initial conditions ensembles of (best available) opportunities
  • 34.
    37 Emission scenarios SRES/ RCPs Figure: P. Bowyer; Data based on SRES, IIASA and Global Carbon Project
  • 35.
    38 CMIP5: Projected globaltemperature range Figure created by Ed Hawkins 2014, source: http://www.climate-lab-book.ac.uk/2014/cascade-of-uncertainty/ relative to pre-industrial time period
  • 36.
    39 Overall Outline ● Introduction toclimate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
  • 37.
    40 Brainstorming How does climatechange affect your region? Region Climate Change affect Variables/indicators
  • 38.
  • 39.
    43 Multi-model ensemble CMIP5and CMIP3 Source: IPCC 2013 AR5 Chapter 9 MIPs Model Intercompariso Projects (since 1990): standard experiment protocol and an world wide community-based infrastructure in support of model simulations, validation, intercomparison, documentation and data access. CMIP3: coordinated climate projections, based on emission scenarios from SRES, global model basis for IPCC AR4 CMIP5: a new set of coordinated, based on the new RCPs, global model basis for IPCC AR5
  • 40.
    44 Regional climate simulations:WCRP CORDEX 14 domains with a resolution of 0.44° x 0.44° (approx. 50 x 50km²) High resolution simulations with 0.11° x 0.11° (approx. 12 x 12km²) for Europe CORDEX data available via Earth System Grid Federation: https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/search/cordex-dkrz/  CORDEX focus on Africa  GERICS participates in many CORDEX-regions (adapted from F. Giorgi)
  • 41.
    45 CORDEX vision andgoals The CORDEX vision is to advance and coordinate the science and application of regional climate downscaling through global partnerships.  To better understand relevant regional/local climate phenomena, their variability and changes, through downscaling.  To evaluate and improve regional climate downscaling models and techniques  To produce coordinated sets of regional downscaled projections worldwide  To foster communication and knowledge exchange with users of regional climate information Emerging scientific challenges  Added value  Human element  Coordination of regional coupled modelling  Precipitation  Local wind systems CORDEX domains (adapted from F. Giorgi) Great parts of the information of climate change is based on CORDEX activities
  • 42.
    47 CORDEX-CORE Horizontal resolution: 0.22°(~25km) resolution Forcing: re-analysis (ERA-Interim), RPC2.6 and RCP8.5 driven global simulations GCMs: HadGEM (backup: MIROC5), MPI-ESM (backup: EC-Earth), NorESM (backup: GFDL-ESM) RCMs: REMO, RegCM, (CLM) Towards a homogeneous high-resolution simulation dataset for the world CORDEX-CORE model domains as setup for simulations by the regional climate model REMO. Domains from top-left to bottom right: North America, Central America, South America, EURO-CORDEX, Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia. Orographically structured area.
  • 43.
    48 CORDEX-CORE Horizontal resolution: 0.22°(~25km) resolution Forcing: re-analysis (ERA-Interim), RPC2.6 and RCP8.5 driven global simulations GCMs: HadGEM (backup: MIROC5), MPI-ESM (backup: EC-Earth), NorESM (backup: GFDL-ESM) RCMs: REMO, RegCM, CLM Towards a homogeneous high-resolution simulation dataset for the world CORDEX-CORE model domains as setup for simulations by the regional climate model REMO. Domains from top-left to bottom right: North America, Central America, South America, EURO-CORDEX, Africa, South Asia, East Asia, Australasia. Orographically structured area. The main ideas of the CORDEX CORE framework are  to use a core set of RCMs  to downscale a core set of GCMs  to cover the major inhabited areas of the world  to use different representative concentration pathways (RCPs)  to incrementally extend the CORDEX-CORE ensemble with further contributions by additional models/experiments The main ideas of the CORDEX CORE framework are  to use a core set of RCMs  to downscale a core set of GCMs  to cover the major inhabited areas of the world  to use different representative concentration pathways (RCPs)  to incrementally extend the CORDEX-CORE ensemble with further contributions by additional models/experiments
  • 44.
    49 CORDEX Points OfContact For each CORDEX region, POCs are listed on www.cordex.org
  • 45.
    50 CORDEX Points OfContact For each CORDEX region, POCs are listed on www.cordex.org http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/cordex-africa
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
    54 Further information  Accessing observationdata:  www.ncdc.noaa.gov  https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html  Accessing reanalysis data  https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/browse-reanalysis-datasets  https://climate.copernicus.eu -> climate data store  Accessing simulation data:  https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/  https://climate4impact.eu/impactportal/general/index.jsp  https://climate.copernicus.eu -> climate data store
  • 50.
    55 Overall Outline ● Introduction toclimate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
  • 51.
    56 Current state ofscientific knowledge relevant to climate change: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/ 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: WGI 2013, WGII, WGIII,SYR 2014 IPCC Assessment Report 5
  • 52.
    57 Quick visualization ofsimulation data Monthly values can easily be accessed by KNMI climate change atlas: http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
  • 53.
    58 Quick visualization ofsimulation data Monthly values can easily be accessed by KNMI climate change atlas: http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
  • 54.
  • 55.
    EXAMPLES: Number ofFrost Days (FD) LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE FUTURE PERIODS: PERIOD1: 2011 - 2040 NEAR TERM PERIOD2: 2041 - 2070 MEDIUM TERM PERIOD3: 2071 - 2100 LONG TERM MOKOENA FRANCE REFERENCE/BASELINE: 1971-2000 Data used: CORDEX-Africa-0.44 (50km resolution)
  • 56.
    EXAMPLES: Projected winterpr change LESOTHO'S EXPERIENCE FUTURE PERIODS: PERIOD1: 2011 - 2040 NEAR TERM PERIOD2: 2041 - 2070 MEDIUM TERM PERIOD3: 2071 - 2100 LONG TERM MOKOENA FRANCE REFERENCE/BASELINE: 1971-2000 Data used: CORDEX-Africa-0.44 (50km resolution)
  • 57.
    62 Concise climate characteristics of individualcountries or regions Available on request: www.climate-service-center.de/climate-fact-sheets Jointly developed with Example-pages from CFS: Burkina Faso – Togo – Ghana Example: GERICS Climate-Fact-Sheets
  • 58.
    65 Detailed description oftemporal development projected changes Expert Judgement on signal strength and confidence based on - statistical significance & magnitude of absolute change - quality of simulations in comparison to observations - signal-to-noise ratio of projected changes - agreement of model simulations Main elements of a Climate-Fact-Sheets
  • 59.
  • 60.
    72 Publications  National Assessmenton Climate Change  GERICS Reports  Studies, Brochures and Documentations  Klima konkret  Newsletter  Books  GERICS articles at Earth System Knowledge Platform (ESKP) of Helmholtz-Association  Publications in scientific journals Webportals  IMPACT2C Web-Atlas  Klimanavigator  Document Server Climate Change (Dokumentenserver Klimawandel) Fact Sheets  Climate Fact Sheets  Site-characteristic Climate-Fact-Sheets  GERICS Climate-Focus-Paper Toolkits  Adaptation toolkit for Cities (Stadtbaukasten)  Adaptation toolkit for Companies (Unternehmensbaukasten)  Regional modeling toolkit (Regionaler Modellierbaukasten) Maps and Visualizations  GERICS Climate Signal Maps  GERICS Climate Signal Maps (global)  GERICS Rain Map Trainings  Customer specific training  Sector specific training  Capacity building programmes for countries in Africa, Asia and Latin-America  Publications and tools supporting our capacity building measures Examples: GERICS products in a nutshell
  • 61.
    73 For further information:Visit GERICS online Key interfaces to users and practitioners are the GERICS web-services. The main gateway is the homepage, which is available in German, English, and in Arabic (only main pages). www.gerics.de
  • 62.
    74 Further information  Quick visualizationof simulation data  KNMI: Climate Explorer  http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py  SMHI: Regional climate change in a 1.5 degrees warmer world  https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/global-warming-levels#sc=15C  SMHI: Climate Scenarios  https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios
  • 63.
    75 Further information  Accessing climatechange information  Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank  http://sdwebx.worldbank.org/climateportal/  UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles  http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/projects/undp-cp/  Copernicus Climate Change Services (focus on Europe, but examples and plans for extension to the world)  https://climate.copernicus.eu/  Guidelines  Guidance for EURO-CORDEX climate projections data use (mostly applicable also to other regions)  http://guidelines.euro-cordex.net
  • 65.
    Global Warming of1.5°C An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.  1
  • 66.
  • 67.
    3 The report innumbers 91 Authors from 40 Countries 133 Contributing authors 6000 Studies 1 113 Reviewers 42 001 Comments
  • 68.
  • 69.
    Where are wenow? Since pre-industrial times, human activities have caused approximately 1°C of global warming. • Already seeing consequences for people, nature and livelihoods • At current rate, would reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 • Past emissions alone do not commit the world to 1.5°C 5 Ashley Cooper / Aurora Photos
  • 70.
    Projected Climate Change, PotentialImpacts and Associated Risks 6
  • 71.
    Impacts of globalwarming 1.5°C • Less extreme weather where people live, including extreme heat and rainfall • By 2100, global mean sea level rise will be around 10 cm lower but may continue to rise for centuries • 10 million fewer people exposed to risk of rising seas At 1.5°C compared to 2°C: 7 Jason Florio / Aurora Photos
  • 72.
    Impacts of globalwarming 1.5°C At 1.5°C compared to 2°C: • Lower impact on biodiversity and species • Smaller reductions in yields of maize, rice, wheat • Global population exposed to increased water shortages is up to 50% less 7 Jason Florio / Aurora Photos
  • 73.
    Impacts of globalwarming 1.5°C At 1.5°C compared to 2°C: • Lower risk to fisheries and the livelihoods that depend on them • Up to several hundred million fewer people exposed to climate-related risk and susceptible to poverty by 2050 7 Jason Florio / Aurora Photos
  • 74.
    86 Example: IMPACT2C web-atlas GERICScoordinated the EU Project IMPACT2C: Estimating the key impacts of a +2°C climate change signal for different regions and sectors of the world. The IMPACT2C web-atlas provides climate change information for the development of possible adaptation strategies. www.atlas.impact2c.eu
  • 75.
    92 Example: A methodto assess climate change at +2°C Vautard et al., 2018
  • 76.
    93 Example: Quantify thebenefits of staying at 1.5°C ● Data basis: ● E-OBS as reference ● EURO-CORDEX ensemble ● Fixed population density data for 2015 interpolated to EUR-11 ● 30 year periods in which the driving GCM projects a +1.5°C, +2°C and +3°C global warming level ● Significance test ● Mann-Whitney-U test (90% confidence level) ● Ensemble-CCS is significant if >66% of simulations show a significant CCS ● Aim: Quantify the benefits of staying at 1.5°C global warming level compared to 2°C and 3°C global warming
  • 77.
    94 Example: Quantify thebenefits of staying at 1.5°C Hot days per year E- Obs CCS under +1.5°C CCS(+2°C) – CCS(+1.5°C) CCS(+3°C) – CCS(+1.5°C) CCS under +1.5°CE-Obs CCS(+3°C) – CCS(+1.5°C)CCS(+2°C) – CCS(+1.5°C) Teichmann et al., 2018
  • 78.
    95 Overall Outline ● Introduction toclimate modelling ● Bandwidth of possible future climate developments and ensemble techniques ● How to access climate data ● How to visualize and analyze climate data ● Hands-on-session: Visualization of past, present and possible future climate conditions in different regions. 1st part 2nd part
  • 79.
    96 Brainstorming How does climatechange affect your region? Region Climate Change affect Variables/indicators
  • 80.
    97 Quick visualization ofsimulation data http://climexp.knmi.nl/plot_atlas_form.py
  • 81.
    98 Quick visualization ofsimulation data https://www.smhi.se/en/climate/climate-scenarios
  • 82.
  • 83.
    100 Dimensions Policies/tools Global Globalgoal on adaptation Regional / Continental Regional Strategies National National Adaptation Plans - Strategies National Communications Subnational Cities / Sectoral Adaptation Plans Local Adaptation implementation / undertaking / efforts GERICS R&D strategy: • Networking • Modeling • Prototype development • Capacity building → service needs science GERICS: science for solutions Adaptation strategies across local to global scales
  • 84.
    101 Capacity Building System Dynamics Dimensions Policies/tools GlobalGlobal goal on adaptation Regional / Continental Regional Strategies National National Adaptation Plans - Strategies National Communications Subnational Cities / Sectoral Adaptation Plans Local Adaptation implementation / undertaking / efforts Adaptation strategies across local to global scales GERICS: science for solutions
  • 85.
    102 • Climate modelsdeliver a valuable tool for the assessment of potential future climate change • One has to know how to interpret the data of climate models and one has to be careful to not over interpret • Climate models are suspect to uncertainty • Never rely a decision on the output of a single model or emission scenario • Build on existing knowledge and expertise • Regional expertise is essential Things to remember when using climate data Contact: Claas Teichmann Climate Service Center Germany Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg claas.teichmann@hzg.de www.climate-service-center.de
  • 86.
    103 • Climate modelsdeliver a valuable tool for the assessment of potential future climate change • One has to know how to interpret the data of climate models and one has to be careful to not over interpret • Climate models are suspect to uncertainty • Never rely a decision on the output of a single model or emission scenario • Build on existing knowledge and expertise • Regional expertise is essential Things to remember when using climate data Contact: Claas Teichmann Climate Service Center Germany Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg claas.teichmann@hzg.de www.climate-service-center.de Parallel Session tomorrow in Room 205 Parallel Session 5.3: Mediated modeling: using systems dynamics to build collaborative tools (GERICS, NAP technical working group)
  • 87.
    120 Contact: Claas Teichmann Climate ServiceCenter Germany Fischertwiete 1 20095 Hamburg claas.teichmann@hzg.de www.climate-service-center.de Contact