This document discusses climate change impacts in Wales and the need for adaptation. It summarizes the Met Office's research including operating a high-resolution 1.5km climate model over Wales to better understand local weather extremes and projected changes. The Met Office aims to provide climate services including regional predictions of hazards to help infrastructure planning and resilience in Wales.
1.1 Climate change and impacts on hydrological extremes (P.Willems)Stevie Swenne
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Slides from a presentation about modeling past and future climate as part of the "School of Ice" workshop for educators at Oregon State University on Aug. 2, 2021.
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Climate change scenarios in context of the less than 2C global temperature ta...NAP Events
Presented by: Wilfran Moufouma-Okia
3.1 Technical guidance on NAPs
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Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Hydropower Systems in the Italian ...pietro richelli
In this study we assess the impact of climate change on the hydro- logical cycle of an Alpine catchment and on the management of hy- dropower systems. We apply the traditional climate change impact study approach, known in the literature as “scenario-based” approach, to the case study of Lake Como catchment. The “scenario-based” ap- proach consists in employing a modelling chain, which comprises the definition of Green House Gases emission scenarios, the simulation of climate models and hydrological models, and the simulation of the impact on water resources.
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To aid in understanding many complex interactions, scientists often build mathematical models that represent simple climate systems. This module highlights the fundamentals of climate models.
Climate change scenarios in context of the less than 2C global temperature ta...NAP Events
Presented by: Wilfran Moufouma-Okia
3.1 Technical guidance on NAPs
The session will take the participants through the technical guidance for NAPs, including: NAP guidelines, guiding principles for adaptation under the Convention, and subsequent products developed by the LEG such as the sample NAP process. It will further look detailed aspects on undertaking assessments by going through best available methods and tools for assessing for assessing crop production as an example. Countries will further provide practical experiences in applying the guidance in the formulation of their NAPs.
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Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Hydropower Systems in the Italian ...pietro richelli
In this study we assess the impact of climate change on the hydro- logical cycle of an Alpine catchment and on the management of hy- dropower systems. We apply the traditional climate change impact study approach, known in the literature as “scenario-based” approach, to the case study of Lake Como catchment. The “scenario-based” ap- proach consists in employing a modelling chain, which comprises the definition of Green House Gases emission scenarios, the simulation of climate models and hydrological models, and the simulation of the impact on water resources.
We take into account an ensemble of climate scenarios, comprising two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) and five Regional Circulation Models (RCMs). The analysis of the climate scenarios on the domain of inter- est shows an increase in temperature and a seasonal shift in precip- itation, causing drier summers and more rainy winters. We apply a statistical downscaling to the climate scenarios in order to match the adequate spatial resolution needed for hydrological modelling. We adopt Topkapi-ETH, a physically-based and fully distributed hydro- logical model, to reproduce the response of the catchment hydrology to climate change. The employment of a spatially distributed model is due to the possibility of assessing the impact of climate change on different areas of the catchment. Moreover, Topkapi-ETH allows to simulate anthropogenic infrastructures such as reservoirs and river diversions, which are widely present in the Lake Como catchment. The simulation results over the XXI century scenario show a seasonal shift in the hydrological cycle, with lower flow in summer, higher flow in winter, and an earlier snowmelt peak. This results in different patterns of storage building in the Alpine hydropower reservoirs. Finally, we analyze the uncertainty on hydro-climatic variables asso- ciated to climate modelling. Results show that the uncertainty related to the choice of the GCM is the most critical, but comparable to the one of the RCM. The choice of the RCP is generally less crucial for short lead times, but it increases in relative terms for longer lead times.
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5. Global rainfall anomalies (left panel) and surface air temperature anomalies (right panel) for March 1962 against the climatology for 1981-2010.
SST anomalies for
March 2013 (top)
and March1962
(bottom) relative to
1981-2010
9. Extreme weather
November/December 2010
December 2010:
Record minimum monthly average
temperature for Wales = -3.8 degC
Record minimum Nov temperature:
-18.0 C at Llysdinam (Powys) on 28
November 2010, lowest November min.
temperature in Wales on record
10. Extreme weather
November/December 2010
Return time of
temperatures for
December in 20002009 decade
Return time of
temperatures for
December in 19601969 decade
Dec 2010 CET
The odds of the
cold December
2010 temperatures
have halved as a
result of
human‐induced
climate change
14. Moving from uncertainty to
probabilities/likelihoods
UKCP09
Single
projection
Summer Rainfall 2080’s
UKCIP02
Very unlikely
to be less
than (10%)
Central
estimate
(50%)
Very unlikely
to be more
than (90%)
18. 1.5km resolution climate model
Resolution of Welsh terrain
Best longterm climate
models,
UKCP09
Current
global
weather
forecasting
State-of-art
seasonal
model
configuration
Current UK
weather
forecasting
+ groundbreaking
climate
work
20. 1.5km resolution climate model
Ground-breaking science
• Same formulation as new 1.5km
weather forecast model, run
operationally since last year
• Spans southern England and Wales at
1.5km resolution
• Driven by 12km regional climate model
at boundaries (in turn driven by
reanalysis data)
• Explicitly represents convection without
need for parameterisation scheme
• Completed 20 years: 1989-2008
• Just started climate change experiments
using global 60km model output for
boundary forcing, enabling study of
climate change and extremes
21. Environmental Prediction at Regional
and Local Scales
• Established models exist for most components
• Modeling scales are converging
27. Opportunities for partnership
Extreme Weather Initiative Wales
• Performance of 1.5km model to represent extreme rainfall
characteristics in South Wales catchments
• 20 year hourly rainfall climatology, including variability and
extremes, and comparison with observations
• Grid-scale and catchment-scale analysis
• Comparison with 12km driving model to assess benefits of very high
resolution modelling for Wales
• Climate change experiments at 1.5km over South Wales
• Application of HPC Wales capability
• Additional ensemble member experiments, to complement timeslice runs at Met Office, to allow climate change signal to be
extracted from noise due to climate variability
• Analysis of projected changes in rainfall, limited to those metrics
where 1.5km model shown to be skilful for present day
• Provision of guidance on implications for climate change advice and
flood risk planning in Wales
Editor's Notes
Comparing climate model simulations with and without human factors shows that the cold UK winter of 2010/2011 has become about half as likely as a result of human influence on climate, illustrating that some extreme events are becoming less likely due to climate changeReturn times of temperatures for November in the 1960–1969 decade (blue curve) and the 2000–2009 decade (red curve). The observed value for the warm November 2011 of 9.6°C is shown on both curves as a solid, larger circle, with a return period in 1960–1969 of 1250 years and in 2000–2009 of 20 years. (b) Return times of temperatures for December in the 1960–1969 decade (blue curve) and the 2000–2009 decade (red curve). The observed value for the cold December 2010 of –0.7°C is again shown as a solid, large circle, with a return period in 1960–1969 of 139 years and in 2000–2009 of 278 years.Although the occurrence of a cold December in the 2000s has decreased from the 1960s, the difference in temperature of the 100-yr event is 0.87°C. The cold December of 2010, which is the second coldest December and coldest since 1890, has a monthly mean temperature of –0.7°C, which has a return period of 139 years in the 1960s and a return period of 278 in the 2000s. Therefore, a cold December of –0.7°C is half as likely to occur in the 2000s when compared to the 1960s.