Assessment of climate risks and impacts MoAC programme portfolio

1. Seite 1
Approach towards the Climate Change Action Plan
formulation:
Assessment of climate risks and impacts on MoAC
programme portfolio (impact chain analysis)
Rama Garden Hotel
Bangkok, 23rd November 2016
Supporting developing countries to integrate the
agricultural sectors into National Adaptation Plans
(NAPs)

2. Seite 2
What is an impact chain?
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
• An analytical tool to better understand, systemize and
prioritize the factors that drive risk and vulnerability in a
given system (cause-and-effect relationship)
• A basis for a risk and vulnerability assessment to identify
indicators and adaptation measures
• Organised around the main dimensions of RISK
(building on the risk-based framework of the IPCC AR5)

3. Impact Chain components
29/03/2017
Climate driver
2nd range hazards
Vulnerability
Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
Risk
Hazard
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
1st range hazards
Sector-specific
hazards
Sector mission
Exposure

4. Seite 4
Applying the AR5 risk approach to CC impact chain
components - definitions
29/03/2017 CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
The most relevant climate-related variables for
South East Asia as identified in the IPCC AR5
(Chapter 24)
Temperature change Precipitation change
Sea Level RiseOcean acidification
Climate driver

5. Seite 5
Applying the AR5 risk approach to CC impact chain
components- definitions
29/03/2017 CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
The potential occurrence of a natural or human-induced
physical event or trend or physical impact that may cause
loss of life, injury or other health impacts, as well as damage
and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service
provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.
 Climate-related physical events or trends or their
physical impacts.
(IPCC 2014)
Hazard
2nd range hazards1st range hazards Sector-specific
hazards

6. Seite 6
Applying the AR5 risk approach to CC impact chain
components- definitions
29/03/2017 CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
Exposure
The presence of people, livelihoods, species or
ecosystems, environmental functions, services
and resources, infrastructure or economic, social,
or cultural assets in places and settings that could
be adversely affected.
(IPCC 2014)

7. Seite 7
Applying the AR5 risk approach to CC impact chain
components- definitions
29/03/2017
Vulnerability
Sensitivity Adaptive capacity
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
• Physical/biological and socio-
economic attributes of a
system/sector.
• The whole of capabilities, resources and
institutions of a country, region, or sector
allowing to implement effective adaptation
measures. (IPCC, 2007)
• Adaptive capacities= building resilience
on the long term (looking at climate
changes)
• Coping capacities= actions that
communities adopt to confront CC impacts
in the short term (weather changes)

8. Seite 8
Applying the AR5 risk approach to CC impact chain
components- definitions
29/03/2017
Risk
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
• The potential for
consequences where something
of value is at stake and where the
outcome is uncertain.
• Risk as the probability of
occurrence of hazardous events
or trends multiplied by the
impacts if these events or trends
occur.
• R= f(V,E,H)
• Term risk refers to the risks of
climate-change impacts.
IPCC, 2014

9. Seite 9
Applying the AR5 risk approach to CC impact chain
components- definitions
29/03/2017 CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project
Sector mission
The official mandate or development goal
of the sector (e.g. Mission Statement).

10. 29/03/2017 CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project

11. Seite 11
Sensitivity Capacity matrix for Agriculture sector
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
AGRICULTURE
EXPOSURE SENSITIVITY
Fisheries (capture fisheries and
aquaculture)
Limited area of mangrove
forests
Limited climate
tolerance of
species, gender,
aging of farmers,
lack of CC
awareness
education
Livestock
Crops (vegetables, horticulture,
field-crop)
Insufficient irrigation systems,
monocroping, growth phases
of crops, dependency on
agricultural income
Soil and Water for agriculture Degraded land and exposed
slope areas and lowlands,
lack of land ownership

12. Seite 12
Adaptive
Capacity
matrix for
Agriculture
sector
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
AGRICULTURE
RISK ADAPTIVE/ COPING CAPACITIES
Increased toxics from aquaculture
waste
Promoting mangrove
conservation
Research and
development,
farmers
networking and
collaboration,
land use planning
and policy,
knowledge
transfer, income
diversity,
accessibility to
financial schemes
Reduction in quality and quantity
of livestock and fisheries (health,
growth, breeding, habitat)
Breeding technology
Invasive new crop pest
diseases
Crop insurance systems,
breeding technology,
biotechnology, crop warning
systems, cropping system
rotation, crop climate
modelling, plant insect
quarantine
Shortened shelf life Cooperatives, improved
logistics
Decrease of soil fertility,
productivity and insufficient
water
Crop extension and advise,
small irrigation ponds and
dripping systems, water
management
Low productivity and temporary
halt in agricultural production
systems
Higher cost of production and
management

13. Seite 13
Developing sub-sector impact chains
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
• The impact chain approach can be employed to visualize CC cause-and-effect
relationships at different levels (national or sub-national; cross-sectoral or
sector/sub-sector based)
• The more micro/local the scale of the impact chain, the more precise the
information gets
• Why developing sub-sector impact chains for agriculture?
• It enables to assess in more details which climate signals and hazards affect
a particular segment of the sector
• E.g.: what HAZARDS induce which RISKS (bio-physical and socio-
economic) for specific agricultural products
• Possibility to include a greater level of detail, e.g. spatial or biological
parameters, such as crop ecosystems or growth phases
• It can help improve and inform the type of parameters and relationships to
consider in models, e.g. in crop models

14. CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017

15. Seite 15
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
Rice sensitivity chart
Climatic
stimuli
Production phase
Germination Growth/flowe
ring/fruit
setting
Ripening Harvest
Temperature Some controversy
Rainfall Vulnerable to erratic rainfall
Drought Vulnerable
Flooding Vulnerable to prolonged flooding (except e.g. scuba rice)
Tropical ozone Harmful and leads to grain yield decrease
Salinization Problem in dry
season
CO2
fertilization
Fairly strong positive effect

16. Seite 16
Sensitivity and Adaptive capacity matrix for rice sector
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
Sensitivity
Poor farm infrastructure
Price fluctuation on global
markets
High dependence on rainfall
(rain-fed rice)
Low soil fertility
Labour shortages during
peak periods
Etc.
Adaptive Capacity
Mainstream climate risks in GAP
Development of new rice varieties
Development of information and
communication technology to
monitor rice disease and pest
outbreaks
Mechanization/improvement of
agricultural equipment
Improved irrigation facilities
Etc.

17. Seite 17
Quantifying impact chains
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
1. Definition of indicators: monitor CC impacts and
adaptation measures
• E.g.: Indicators for hazard factors will mostly
consist of directly measured climate parameters
such as average temperature or amount and
distribution of rainfall
2. Normalization: put all values on a common scale
• E.g.: Use a value range from 0 (‘optimal’) to 1
(‘critical’, system can no longer function)
3. Weighting of indicators: applied if some of the indicators
are considered to have a greater influence on a risk
component than others
4. Aggregation of indicators: combine the information from
different indicators into a composite indicator representing
a single risk component

18. Seite 18
Support & collaboration opportunities: GIZ, ONEP &
MoAC
CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
National level
• Methodological advice and support on further impact chain development
• Development of an impact chain guideline
• Development of national CC database  guideline on how to overlay climate and socio-
economic data with sectoral data
• Enhance ONEP-MoAC collaboration on NAP development and implementation
Sub-national level
• Active collaboration at the pilot level  in pilot areas where agriculture is a dominant sector,
through the Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA), an approach can be tested to overlay
context-specific agricultural data with climate data in order to identify sector specific climate
risks and appropriate adaptation options
• Outcomes:
• Guidelines and tools to replicate CCRAs in other areas for a nation-wide implementation
of NAP
• Feedback loop to national level NAP and adaptation strategies in the agriculture sector

19. Seite 19CBA Workshop, NAP-Ag Project29/03/2017
Thank you
Ms. Marie Rossetti
Project Advisor
T: + 66 811 322 335
Risk-based National Adaptation (Risk-NAP) Project
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
German Development Cooperation c/o Office of Natural Resources & Environmental
Policy & Planning
60/1 ONEP Building, 7th floor
Soi Phibunwattana 7 Rama VI Road, Phayathai Bangkok 10400, Thailand
http://www.giz.de
Ms. Wiriya Puntub
Project Coordinator
T : + 66 2298 658 788