The document discusses applying an integrated assessment approach to analyze the impacts of climate change on development projects in China's water sector. It describes a 4-phase framework to 1) identify climate-sensitive components, 2) analyze impacts semi-quantitatively, 3) quantify adaptation options, and 4) use multiple criteria analysis to evaluate options. The approach was tested on 4 case studies of water management projects. Results showed adaptation could help projects cope with climate stresses and highlighted opportunities to mainstream climate risks into existing management systems.

1. Storm in a teacup? Adapting to the impacts of climate change in China Thomas Tanner (IDS) Declan Conway (University of East Anglia) 20 th November 2008

2. “ Climate change is a major global issue of common concern to the international community. It is an issue involving both environment and development, but it is ultimately an issue of development.” China’s National Climate Change Programme June 2007.

4. Increasing awareness and recognition of exposure and sensitivity; - Floods 2007 - Spring Festival 2008

5. Climate Change in China: Impacts and adaptation Defra-DFID China-UK collaboration Prof Lin Erda [email_address] Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Declan Conway, UEA [email_address]

6. Achievements in Phase I (2001-04) Climate Change Scenarios Temperature to increase by 3~4℃ and rainfall to increase 10~12% by 2080s Crop Yield Changes Yields of rice, maize and wheat to change significantly in the next 80 years - without any adaptations 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

8. The integration approach

14. Ningxia Autonomous Region – north-west China Semi-arid to arid – high levels of rural poverty Range of different farming systems

17. An adaptation framework for Ningxia Working with UKCIP Adaptation as a process 3 Identify adaptation options 1 Assess climate risks 2 Integrate development and adaptation goals 4 Prioritise options New knowledge/ research 6 Monitoring and evaluation 5 Implementation

20. www.china-climate-adapt.org

21. An applied approach to climate change impacts in the Chinese water sector 4 case studies of major development programmes Team of water resources, economics and agriculture experts Feeding into NDRC thinking and strategy on adaptation

23. Time Current End-date Current Project objective Indicator Effect of climate change – failure to meet Objective Project progress with climate change Without climate change Change due to planned infrastructure, management changes etc within Development Project

24. Case Studies Project Location Flood control and land drainage management project Huai River Basin Integrated Water and environment management project Hai River Basin Water Conservation Plan Hai River Basin Integrated Restoration Plan Shi Yan River Basin Climate change impacts Increased flooding Increased reservoir inflow Increased water deficit Reduced catchment runoff