By Dr Bob Manteaw, Foresight Planners Africa.

1. Assessing Climate
Vulnerabilities in
Data-Poor
Environments:
Scenarios Analysis as Resilience Learning
By Dr Bob Manteaw

2. 01 How to use climate data and scenarios for an effective
RVAS process
Agenda
02 What opportunities exist in developing country contest in
using climate scenarios and models
03 How can knowledge gaps due to the lack of or absence of
scientific models be addressed
04 How can climate scenarios be used across different scales
05 What alternatives exist to understand future climate risks, and
how can this information contribute to developing effective NAP

3. Introduction
• Effective climate change adaptation
planning in many developing regions has
been hindered by the unavailability and
unreliability of climate forecasts or
predictive data.

4. Introduction
And even when/where there are climate
predictive data, they are not always reliable
and usable because of the vast
uncertainties surrounding their construction
So instead, climate scenarios have been
widely used for the purposes of adaptation
planning either as a complement or
alternative.

5. Introduction
Scenario, as used in the Millennium Ecosystem
Assessment (2005), implies the generation of
relevant, and plausible sets of stories that provide
consistent images of how the future might unfold.
There are climate and non-climate scenarios in
adaptation planning and they are generally
developed to facilitate imagination of the future in
the present by understanding a wide range of
plausibile occurences.

6. Introduction
More importantly, scenarios provide opportunities to embrace
uncertainties and to take proactive actions .
From a climate change perspective, and particularly as it relates to Ghana’s
current adaptation planning efforts, scenarios development and applications
become critically important in climate and non-climate contexts.

7. Introduction • Using Ghana’s District-Specific
Vulnerability Assessments (as part of
the NAP process), and the guiding
questions provided, I share experiences
from how we have used climate data
and scenarios in the VA Process.

8. How to use
climate data
and
scenarios for
effective
RVAs in NAP
process.
Climate scenarios and adaptation
planning approaches
Several Frameworks/Approaches have
been proposed on how to apply scenarios
for successful adaptation planning
There are the IPCC approach, risk-based
approach and human development
approach

9. THE IPCC
APROACH
We used this approach
in Ghana)
This approach follows seven steps:
• Define problem (including study area, its
sectors, etc.);
• Select method of assessment most
appropriate to the problems;
• Test methods/conduct sensitivity analysis;
• Select and apply climate change scenarios;
• Assess biophysical and socio-economic
impacts;
• Assess autonomous adjustments;
• Evaluate adaptation strategies.

10. THE IPCC APROACH
This approach is scenarios driven—relies heavily on
climate change scenarios (step4) and from which
adaptation strategies are devised in the last step
The framework was later expanded to include socio-
economic scenarios

11. Risk Approach
One broad definition of risk assessment is the process of identifying, evaluating,
selecting, and implementing actions to reduce risk to human health and to the
ecosystem
Central to risk assessment is the management of uncertainties, which allows the
risk (i.e., in its simplest form probability times consequence) of something to be
determined
Risk assessment and risk management have been widely applied to a number of
environmental problems, but only very recently to climate change and because
of the high level of uncertainty associated with climate change projections

12. Risk
Approach
The climate impact risk assessment also has
seven steps:
• Identify the key climatic variables affecting the
exposure units being assessed;
• Create scenarios and/or projected ranges for key
climatic variables;
• Carry out a sensitivity analysis to assess the
relationship between climate change and impacts;
• Identify the impact thresholds to be analyzed for risk
with stakeholders;
• Carry out risk analysis;
• Evaluate risk and identify feedbacks likely to result in
autonomous adaptations;
• Consult with stakeholders, analyse proposed
adaptations and recommend planned adaptation
option

13. Risk Approach
Climate scenarios play an important role in this
framework (step2) like the IPCC approach, but this
risk based approach is not totally scenario driven
It is more dependent on stakeholder involvement
and their definition of critical impact thresholds.

14. Identify potential
risks
Assess
potential
risks/V and
impacts Identify possible ways for
climate risk management
Identify hot spots, and
response system
Risk Approach

15. Human
development
approaches
• There is increasing recognition that
climate change is as much a
development problem as it is an
environmental one, but also that
climate change will have an impact
on development efforts
• The argument, therefore, is that
steps taken to improve present
levels and types of adaptation to
reduce present vulnerability are
essential to tackle climate change in
the future.

16. Human development approaches
Therefore, climate scenarios play no role in this framework. Instead, the focus is on
exposure to existing climatic hazards and on the determinants of adaptive capacity
including: the availability of financial resources (wealth); the availability of
technology and a trained body of persons to utilize it effectively; access to
information; and the existence of legal, social, and organizational arrangement
‘’The essential starting point is the present’’ and the emphasis is building adaptive
capacity now for resilience into the future

17. Human
development
approaches
Follows these 5
steps.
1. defining
project scope;
2. assessing
current
vulnerability;
3. characterising
future climate
risks;
4. developing an
adaptation
strategy;
5. continuing the
adaptation
process

18. Using Scenarios in the Ghana VA process
• We acknowledged the reality of data-poverty
• We took into consideration the place-based and non-homogeneity
of climate change impacts
• We used a district-specific approach
• Used qualitative means (Seasonal Calendars) to gather historical
climate data
• Complemented this with specialist down-scaled
projections/Scenarios specific to the district (region)
• Firmed up scenarios by laying seasonal calendars along side
projected scenarios

19. What opportunities exist in (developing country
contexts) in using climate scenarios and models
 Climate change is a global event, but the impact is not homogenous.
It differs from community to community – Location-specific
information is required
 Know your place (context), Appreciate your realities, past,
understand the present and envisage/imagine the future
 Engage, consult community members in vulnerability assessments and
scenarios planning. Use participatory multi criterion analysis to
evaluate, prioritize and create scenarios
 Link vulnerabilities to scenarios (both climate and non-climate)
 Develop context –specific adaptation responses and strategies

20.  Conduct risk and vulnerability
Assessments
 Use indigenous knowledge
 Invoke memories of key climate
events like floods or drought
(Seasonal Calendar Analysis)
 Link climate events to people's
own experiences
 Rely on key informants in local
communities
 Enhance Capability to co-create
knowledge
 Gender-compliant citizen science
How can knowledge gaps
due to the lack of or absence
of scientific models be
addressed

21. How can climate scenarios be used across different
scales
 Establish climate and non-climate
scenarios for key sectors
 Take sector-specific needs into
considerations.
 Classification of sector specific climate
information based on the demand at
different scales
 Sector-specific information at each
scale should be used to manage
climate risk

22. What alternatives exist to understand future climate risks, and
how can this information contribute to developing effective NAP
 Indigenous knowledge
 Historical climate/weather trends
 Seasonal Calendar Analysis
 Socio-ecological changes at scale-
(environmental changes, pollution
( deforestation, water resources)

23. Offeimanteaw
Robert (Bob) Manteaw, PhD
Senior Research Fellow
Center for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies
College of Basic and Applied Sciences (CBAS)
University of Ghana
Telephone: +233 244 269 073
Email: rmanteaw@ug.edu.gh
@Bobmanteaw Offeimanteaw