This document discusses how impact evaluation techniques can help countries in their National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes in two key ways: 1) Estimating the economic impacts of climate change on agriculture using the Ricardian technique, which relates farm profits to climate data to quantify damage from climate change and help identify potential adaptations. 2) Estimating the impacts of specific adaptation options using experimental and quasi-experimental techniques to scientifically test which options are effective, informing the selection and improvement of adaptations. Technical expertise is needed to apply these impact evaluation methods, which can address several elements of the NAP process, including assessing vulnerabilities, reviewing adaptations, prioritizing strategies, and monitoring progress.

1. Economics of Adaptation in Agriculture
Opportunities for Impact
Evaluation in NAP Process
Ali Akram
FAO, Impact Evaluation Expert
Yale University

2. Structure
• Context
• Estimating climate change impacts on agriculture (Ricardian
technique)
• Estimating impacts of adaptations (experimental and quasi-
experimental techniques)
• Institutional arrangements
• Mapping to NAP elements

3. Context
• Country governments engaging in NAP process
• Complex task – many elements
• Multiple resources and tools are needed
• Impact Evaluation (IE) one such tool
• Provides two complementary inputs for NAP process:
• What is impact of climate change?
• What is impact of adaptations?

4. IE for Climate Change Impacts
• Called the Ricardian technique
• First used for agriculture in the United States
• Method can be feasibly deployed in multiple contexts
• Applied to agriculture in Africa and Latin America

5. IE for Climate Change Impacts
• Farmers experience large range of climates
• Relating farmer profit to climate quantifies climate change impacts
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Farmer Profit Climate

6. IE for Climate Change Impacts
• Existing variation in climate tells us what farmers will do as climate
changes
• Help us quantify damage from climate change
• Add-on: Provides insights on possible adaptations
• Rationalize adaptation spending
• Knowing damages justifies spending on adaptation

7. IE for Adaptations
• Policymakers must rationally choose adaptations
• Turn to experimental and quasi-experimental techniques (choice
depends on circumstance)
• Rationale: understand if given adaptation choice has intended
impact

8. IE for Adaptations
• Always think of ideal scientific experiment
• Control group; treatment group
• For adaptations – subjects must be randomly assigned
• Lottery assignment ensures validity of evaluation
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9. IE for Adaptations
CONTROL
TREATMENT ADAPTATION

10. IE for Adaptations
• When randomization not feasible, turn to quasi-experimental
methods
• Not feasible due to constraints – political, institutional, design
(timing)
• Array of techniques
• Difference-in-Difference
• Regression Discontinuity Design
• Matching
• Instrumental Variables

11. Institutional Arrangements
• Three roles
• Implementation
• Data Collection
• Design and Analysis
Implementation Data Collection
Analysis
Design

12. Institutional Arrangements
• Capacity
• Trained economists
• In-house capability might exist
• Partnership (e.g. researchers)
• Timing
• Design: Researcher input before implementation
• Obtaining results: could take some years

13. IE and the NAP Process
• IE (both techniques) help with key NAP elements
NAPElement Impact Assessment Tool(s) Connection
Element BPreparatory
Elements: Assessingclimate
vulnerabilitiesand identifying
adaptation optionsat the
sector, subnational, national
and other appropriate levels.
• Ricardian The Ricardian technique can be used to
understand climate change impacts,
quantifyingthe vulnerability of agriculture to
climate change. The same can also be used
to assessclimate adaptationsthat are
already beingundertaken to help identify
optionsfor adaptation.
Element BPreparatory
Elements: Reviewingand
appraisingadaptation options.
• Experimental and Quasi-
experimental
Experimental and quasi-experimental
techniquescan be used to assessadaptation
optionsin arigorousevidence-based
manner.
Element CImplementation
Strategies: Prioritizingclimate
change adaptation in national
planning.
• Ricardian
• Experimental and Quasi-
experimental
Asbefore, the Ricardian technique can help
identify possible adaptationsbased on what
isalready takingplace in agriculture. Then,
evidence generated from experimental and
quasi-experimental methodscan help to
select the adaptationsthat are effective.
Element DReporting
Monitoring and Review:
Reviewingthe NAPprocessto
assessprogress, effectiveness
and gaps; Iteratively updating
the national adaptation plans.
• Experimental and Quasi-
experimental
Evidence generated from experimental and
quasi-experimental techniqueshelpswith
these – asacontinuousprocessof testing
and deployingnew adaptation programs,
and rejectingthose optionsthat do not work.

14. Conclusion
• Impact Evaluation – broad set of tools
• Two areas where immediately applicable:
• Understanding climate change impacts on
agriculture sector
• Understanding impact of adaptations in
agriculture
• Technical resource persons are needed
• IE tools allow multiple parts of NAP process to
be addressed

15. Conclusion
• Next steps include:
• Identifying opportunities for using IE
methods
• Providing training to countries on specific
methods