The document discusses key developments in Yemen, where al Houthis announced the formation of a new government amid ongoing political crisis, and highlights increased militant activities, including attacks by AQAP. It notes al Qaeda's efforts to compete with ISIS by instigating low-level attacks in the West and the pressure on TTP from Pakistani military operations. Lastly, it covers military actions against al-Shabaab in Somalia and AQIM's operations in Algeria, emphasizing how regional instability influences militant activities.

1. AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT
UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT
February 10, 2015

2. TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS
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1. Yemen’s al Houthis announced plan to form a central government.
2. Iran asserted the regime’s missiles are non-negotiable and that it will install new
centrifuges if the P5+1 returns to its previous negotiating position.
3. Chief of TTP Jamatul Ahrar severely injured in clashes in Nangarhar province.
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3. ASSESSMENT:
Al Qaeda Network
Al Qaeda may be looking to compete with the Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) by encouraging low-level attacks by its
followers in the West. The Charlie Hebdo attack, claimed by AQAP, may provide both momentum to the movement and
propaganda for al Qaeda to push for such attacks. Despite competition with ISIS, the al Qaeda network will continue to direct
resources to the Iraq-Syria front to support the Sunni populations there. The loss of AQAP senior leader Harith bin Ghazi al
Nadhari will affect al Qaeda’s ability to message to potential fighters, since he regularly spoke to the issue, especially that
fighters in Iraq-Syria should avoid adopting ISIS’s practice of killing Muslims who do not subscribe to its version of Islam.
Jordanian officials released al Qaeda-aligned ideologue Abu Muhammad al Maqdisi from prison. Maqdisi is expected to
denounce ISIS in an exclusive interview.
Outlook: Al Qaeda seeks to reassert its relevance in the global jihadist movement and will try to influence the decision-making
of foreign fighters in the Iraq-Syria conflict.
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associates
The Pakistani military continues to consistently target Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in ground operations and air
strikes in tribal and urban areas of Pakistan. The TTP’s leadership is under significant pressure as U.S. and Pakistani airstrikes
target TTP leaders on both sides of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border. Chief of TTP Jamatul Ahrar, Omar Khalid Khorasani,
was severely injured in clashes with Afghan security forces in the Nangarhar province, signaling increased cooperation between
Pakistani and Afghan forces on targeting TTP militants.
Outlook: PakMil operations, drone strikes continue in North/South Waziristan, Khyber/Orakzai Agencies, and across Afghan
border. The tempo of militant attacks may falter in response to intensified anti-TTP operations. AQIS continues media
operations and may launch additional spectacular attacks, possibly in conjunction with TTP.
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AL QAEDA

4. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Yemen’s political crisis remains unresolved as the al Houthis announced the creation of a presidential council and interim
assembly under al Houthi guidance on February 6. The al Houthis made the announcement after UN-led peace talks among the
country’s political groups failed to produce any agreement to end the political crisis. The Southern Movement and the Ma’rib
Tribal Alliance both announced that they would not submit to the new government’s leadership.
Outlook: The al Houthis’ formation of a new government will lead to strong political divisions in the country. Al Houthi attempts
to enforce the interim government’s policies in dissenting regions could lead to large-scale fighting.
Security
Southern Movement militants significantly increased activity against security forces in Lahij and Aden. Ansar al Sharia
continued attacks against security forces in Hadramawt, launching a large-scale attack in al Qatan. Ansar al Sharia also
launched attacks against the al Houthis and military forces reportedly allied with the al Houthis in al Bayda and Ibb. Tribes in
Ma’rib erected road blocks throughout the governorate in preparation for al Houthi attacks.
Outlook: Ansar al Sharia continues its attacks on both security forces and the al Houthis. Al Houthi attempts to increase control
in Ma’rib could drive tribal support to AQAP.
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
AQAP released a statement saying that a U.S. airstrike killed four AQAP members, including senior leader Harith bin Ghazi al
Nadhari. The statement also claimed that the airstrikes were part of America’s plot to help the al Houthis take over Yemen.
Outlook: AQAP will try to use the increased number of alleged U.S. airstrikes in Yemen in combination with the al Houthi
takeover of the government as a recruiting mechanism. As southern governorates begin to distance themselves from Sana’a,
AQAP may try to take a more active role in controlling areas currently under its influence.
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

5. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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YEMENGULF OF ADEN
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1) 02-03 FEB: Ansar
al Sharia engaged in
heavy fighting with
security forces in
Qatan, Hadramawt.
2) 01-03 FEB: Ansar
al Sharia assassinated
al Houthi targets in
Ibb city.
3) 01-04 FEB: Ansar
al Sharia targeted al
Houthi and security
forces in Rada’a, al
Bayda.
4) 02 FEB: Southern
Movement militants
and Ansar al Sharia
militants clashed with
security forces in
Lahij.
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6. ASSESSMENT:
Political
Political fallout from Somaliland’s January 30 seizure of arms continues. Somaliland returned the weapons it had seized in
Berbera to Sudan; Somaliland also denied that it was violating the 1992 arms embargo or supporting al Shabaab fighters. On
February 4, the Presidents of Puntland and the interim Jubba Administration arrived in Mogadishu for talks with Somali Federal
Government officials. The Somali Federal Parliament is expected to vote on a new proposed cabinet next week.
Outlook: Despite Somaliland returning the weapons to Sudan, relations between Puntland and Somaliland are likely to remain
tense, particularly due to accusations that Somaliland supports al Shabaab fighters in Puntland. The cabinet proposal is likely to
pass during a vote in Parliament.
Security
A U.S. airstrike killed a number of al Shabaab fighters on January 31 in Dugule and Dinsor. The casualties included Yusuf
Dheeq who was al Shabaab’s head of external operations and reportedly the head of al Shabaab’s intelligence organization,
Amniyat. Kenyan AMISOM forces also carried out airstrikes in five villages around Kismayo, Lower Jubba region.
Outlook: U.S. airstrikes may affect al Shabaab’s capabilities as its senior leadership is eliminated. AMISOM operations in
Kismayo will also affect al Shabaab operations.
Al Shabaab
Al Shabaab carried out a successful attack on a Boosaaso police station on February 3, an area that has seen sporadic al
Shabaab activity. Al Shabaab also stole livestock and kidnapped herders in Lower Jubba region on January 5, which may
indicate the group’s loss of control in the area.
Outlook: Al Shabaab will continue to conduct asymmetric attacks in areas under government control such as Boosaaso,
Puntland and Mogadishu, Somalia. These will likely increase as Somali Government and AMISOM forces continue to pressure
al Shabaab in the areas it still controls. The loss of resources is probably affecting al Shabaab’s supplies, prompting recent
incidents to secure livestock and finances.
HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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7. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
1) 31 JAN: Al Shabaab
leader Yusuf Dheeq
killed in U.S. airstrike
in Dinsor, Bay region.
2) 03 FEB: Five
AMISOM airstrikes
targeted al Shabaab in
villages around
Kismayo, Lower Jubba
region.
3) 03 FEB: Al Shabaab
militants attacked
police station in
Boosaaso, Bari region.
4) 04 FEB: Al Shabaab
stole livestock and
kidnapped herders
near Badhade, Lower
Jubba region.
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN
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8. ASSESSMENT:
AQIM
Algeria continued its counter-smuggling operations against AQIM near Algiers and Algeria’s southern border.
Outlook: Unrest in Libya will continue to contribute to AQIM’s overall ability to carry out smuggling operations in the Sahel.
AQIM may seek to support Ansar al Din and associates in Mali and will probably continue its relationships with Ansar al Sharia
in Libya and Tunisia.
Ansar al Sharia (Libya, Tunisia)
Operation Dignity and Libyan military forces continued to advance against Ansar al Sharia Libya and allied forces for control of
Benghazi, seizing the Benghazi Port and other areas. Ansar al Sharia militants detonated a suicide vehicle-borne improvised
explosive device (SVBIED) near a Libyan military checkpoint in the Laithi neighborhood of Benghazi, an Ansar al Sharia
stronghold, in response to recent military loses. In Tunisia, security forces conducted multiple raids and arrests against
unidentified Islamist militants for the second week in a row.
Outlook: Despite recent Operation Dignity gains, the conflict in Libya is likely to continue unabated as Ansar al Sharia holds
territory in Derna and Benghazi.
Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)
The MNLA and pro-government fighters continue to clash in northern Mali, culminating in an MNLA kidnapping of 20 residents
of Kano. Meanwhile, inter-Malian peace talks are scheduled to take place this week in Algiers.
Outlook: Inter-Malian peace talks are unlikely to solve the current crisis as waves of violence continue to sweep through
northern Mali. MINUSMA’s efforts will do little to stabilize the region, while the Malian government appears to be incapable of
creating political progress. The security situation may create conditions in which AQIM and Ansar al Din can expand in Mali.
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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

9. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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1. 19 DEC: Tunisian
army begins ground
operations targeting
AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn
Nafaa Brigade in
Jebel Chaambi.
2. 16 DEC: Moroccan
and Spanish
authorities dismantle
ISIS recruiting cell in
Melilla.
3. 17-19 DEC:
Fighting between
Operation Dignity
and Libya Dawn for
control of Ras Lanuf
and Es Sider oil ports
intensifies.
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1. 21 JAN: Libyan
military forces seize
the Libyan Central
Bank branch in
Benghazi during
clashes with Ansar al
Sharia
2. 20-22 JAN: The
Algerian military
interdicts and arrests
58 smugglers in the
Tamanrasset province
3. 21 JAN: The
Algerian military
arrests a wanted
terrorist working
with groups abroad
and two smugglers
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2
1
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
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3
1. 19 DEC: Tunisian
army begins ground
operations targeting
AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn
Nafaa Brigade in
Jebel Chaambi.
2. 16 DEC: Moroccan
and Spanish
authorities dismantle
ISIS recruiting cell in
Melilla.
3. 17-19 DEC:
Fighting between
Operation Dignity
and Libya Dawn for
control of Ras Lanuf
and Es Sider oil ports
intensifies.
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1) 24 JAN: Algerian
military arrests 62
people in anti-
smuggling operations
in Tamanrasset.
2) 25-27 JAN:
Operation Dignity
attacks Ansar al
Sharia forces,
including launching
airstrikes, in
Benghazi.
3) 30 JAN: Tunisia
National Guard
arrests 11 militants
suspected of plotting
terrorist attacks in
southern Tunisia.
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2
1
1
2
3
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1. 19 DEC: Tunisian
army begins ground
operations targeting
AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn
Nafaa Brigade in
Jebel Chaambi.
2. 16 DEC: Moroccan
and Spanish
authorities dismantle
ISIS recruiting cell in
Melilla.
3. 17-19 DEC:
Fighting between
Operation Dignity
and Libya Dawn for
control of Ras Lanuf
and Es Sider oil ports
intensifies.
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1. 21 JAN: Libyan
military forces seize
the Libyan Central
Bank branch in
Benghazi during
clashes with Ansar al
Sharia
2. 20-22 JAN: The
Algerian military
interdicts and arrests
58 smugglers in the
Tamanrasset province
3. 21 JAN: The
Algerian military
arrests a wanted
terrorist working
with groups abroad
and two smugglers
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1
2
1. 19 DEC: Tunisian
army begins ground
operations targeting
AAS-T and Uqbah Ibn
Nafaa Brigade in
Jebel Chaambi.
2. 16 DEC: Moroccan
and Spanish
authorities dismantle
ISIS recruiting cell in
Melilla.
3. 17-19 DEC:
Fighting between
Operation Dignity
and Libya Dawn for
control of Ras Lanuf
and Es Sider oil ports
intensifies.
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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA
1) 05 FEB: Operation
Dignity forces
advanced against
Ansar al Sharia in
several areas of
Benghazi, including
seizing the Benghazi
Port.
2) 06 FEB: Ansar al
Sharia detonated an
SVBIED near a Libyan
military checkpoint in
Laithi neighborhood
of Benghazi, killing
two and wounding 20
people.
3) 02 FEB: Unknown
gunmen killed two
Algerian police
officers in café in
Boura.
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10. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:
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SAHELWEST AFRICA
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1
1
2
1) 03 FEB: French
troops kill a dozen
Islamist militants in
the region of the
Adrar des Ifoghas
Mountains .
2) 01 FEB: MNLA
exchanges gunfire
with pro-government
fighters in Kano and
kidnaps 20 Kano
residents.

11. ASSESSMENT:
Nuclear Talks
The Foreign Ministry reiterated that the regime’s missiles are non-negotiable, echoing previous statements made by the
Supreme Leader. Tehran, meanwhile, stated that it will continue to advance its nuclear program and install more centrifuges if
the P5+1 returns to its previous position regarding Iran.
Outlook: Senior regime officials have coalesced around Khamenei’s policy of compartmentalized negotiations. A nuclear deal
that does not tie-in other issues, i.e. Iran’s missiles, thus constitutes an acceptable accord for Tehran.
Military and Security
Iran launched its fourth domestically produced satellite named Fajr last week, making it the first successful launch since the
Navid Elm-o Sanat in February 2012. It is probable there have been at least two failed launches of the Fajr in the last several
years, along with multiple delays in its launch schedule. It is unclear whether the Fajr is successfully in orbit, despite state-run
Iranian media confirmation.
Outlook: Iran will continue to work toward improving its space program despite economic and sanctions-related impediments.
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IRAN

12. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN
1231 JAN – 06 FEB 2015
01 FEB: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani cited President Obama’s tensions with Congress over sanctions as a
reason for the inability for Obama to make a “prudent decision”
02 FEB: 220 parliamentarians signed a legislative plan to “protect Iran’s nuclear rights”
02 FEB: Iran’s National Gas Company announced the start of new pipeline to southern Iraq
02 FEB: Iran successfully launched its fourth domestically made satellite into orbit
02 FEB: Foreign Ministry denies claims by Parliamentarian Alaeddin Boroujerdi that Israel sent a private
message expressing its disinterest in escalation after January 18 Hezbollah attack in Syria
03 FEB: Judiciary held the 5th session of the heads of government; Judiciary Head Sadegh Amoli Larijani
urges government not to change judiciary budget
04 FEB: IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Salami reiterated the Supreme Leader’s message that enemies seek to
destroy unity among Muslims
04 FEB: Iran’s ambassador to Saudi Arabia claimed that Iran-Saudi relations remain cold and criticized Saudi
Arabia’s contribution to plunging oil prices
04 FEB: MP Boroujerdi meets with Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister
04 FEB: Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh outlines diversification of Iran’s economy
04 FEB: Director for Political and International Affairs Hamid Baeidnejad says that Iran will continue to
develop its nuclear program if new sanctions are imposed
04 FEB: Iran and Afghanistan sign border security agreement
05 FEB: President Hassan Rouhani announced the formation of committees to avoid loan defaults
06 FEB: Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and Secretary of State John Kerry met on the sidelines of the Munich
Security Conference

13. ACRONYMS
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African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)
al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)
Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)
Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)
Islamic State (IS)
Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)
Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)
National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)
North Waziristan (NWA)
Pakistani Military (PakMil)
Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)
Somalia National Army (SNA)
South Waziristan (SWA)
Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

14. CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS
Katherine Zimmerman
senior al Qaeda analyst
katherine.zimmerman@aei.org
(202) 888-6576
Alexis Knutsen
al Qaeda analyst
alexis.knutsen@aei.org
(202) 888-6570
Marie Donovan
Iran analyst
marie.donovan@aei.org
(202) 888-6572
Mehrdad Moarefian
Iran analyst
mehrdad.moarefian@aei.org
(202) 888-6574
For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,
visit www.criticalthreats.org.
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