The document summarizes security threats across North Africa and the Middle East from June 19, 2018. It discusses how fighting for control of oil ports in Libya risks sparking a broader civil war, Gulf state competition destabilizing Tunisia's democracy, AQAP regaining strength in Yemen as the UAE focuses on other issues, and Salafi-jihadi groups challenging Burkina Faso and expanding their insurgency. It also covers Boko Haram attacks in Nigeria and the potential impacts of a US airstrike killing the TTP leader in Afghanistan.

1. 1
Threat Update: June 19, 2018
A fight for control of Libya’s oil resources risks sparking a broader conflict
that will allow ISIS and al Qaeda to regain strength in the country. A
coalition of tribal fighters and militias with ties to Salafi-jihadi groups seized
two key oil ports in eastern Libya. The ports remain contested, disrupting oil
exports and increasing the likelihood of a broader civil war.
Libya
Tunisia
Gulf State competition is helping destabilize Tunisia’s fledgling
democracy. The UAE attempted to plan a coup with the former
Tunisian interior minister to oust the Islamist Ennahda party, which has
ties to Qatar. Tunisian Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, whose party
governs in a coalition in Ennahda, faces multiple challenges to his
leadership as he attempts to maintain power.
Yemen
AQAP will likely utilize the UAE focus on the anti-al Houthi fight to
regain strength after losses. UAE counterterrorism pressure on AQAP
decreased as the UAE prepared for and began conducting operations
along Yemen’s western Red Sea coast. AQAP conducted and attempted
multiple attacks in southern and eastern Yemen.

2. 2
Threat Update: June 19, 2018
Salafi-jihadi groups are challenging the Burkinabe state on two
fronts and may advance farther south. Suspected Salafi-jihadi militants
conducted a rapid series of attacks on security forces in southeastern
Burkina Faso. Al Qaeda- and ISIS-linked groups are already waging an
insurgency in the country’s northern regions.
Sahel
Nigeria
Nigerian security forces have been unable to recapture support zones
from Salafi-jihadi militants in northeastern Nigeria. The Boko Haram
faction led by Abubakr Shekau controls rural terrain that allows it to
stage attacks on population centers, including a large complex attack
during the Eid al Fitr holiday. The Nigerian forces’ inability to seize and
secure terrain will also hinder its efforts to weaken ISIS’s West Africa
Province near Lake Chad.
Al Qaeda
Network
The death of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emir Mullah Fazllulah
will disrupt the group in the near term, possibly causing additional
fractures within the group. A U.S. airstrike killed Fazlullah in Kunar
province in eastern Afghanistan on June 13. The al Qaeda-linked TTP
splintered after Fazlullah replaced Hakimullah Mehsud in 2013. TTP
deputy leader Noor Wali, who belongs to the powerful Mehsud faction,
may be able to maintain the group’s unity if named emir.

3. Yemen
3Anmar Jerjees
AQAP leverages UAE’s focus on al Hudaydah
to plan and conduct attacks
1. 12 JUN: Hadhrami Elite
forces foiled an AQAP
attack in al Mukalla city.
2. 12 JUN: Militants
assassinated a security
chief in Markhah area.
3. 12 JUN: Suspected
AQAP militants ambushed
a Yemeni military patrol in
al Said district.
4. 12 JUN: AQAP
assassinated the director
of security of Shibam city
in al Qatn district.
5. 14 JUN: AQAP
conducted a complex
attack targeting al Hizam
forces in al Wade’a district.
1
2
3
4
5
Shabwah
Abyan
Hadramawt

4. Libya
4
Battle for oil ports risks sparking larger conflict in Libya
Emily Estelle
1. 14 JUN: A coalition of tribal forces,
Islamist militants with ties to al Qaeda,
and others seized the “Oil Crescent”
ports of Sidra and Ras Lanuf from the
Libyan National Army (LNA).
2. 17 JUN: The LNA launched
airstrikes on the area between Sirte
and Ras Lanuf.
3. 17 JUN: The LNA deployed forces
to the Uqaylah area between Ras
Lanuf and Ajdabiya.
Sirte
Sidra
Ras Lanuf
Ajdabiya
1
2
3

5. Al Qaeda
Network
5Mackenzie Robinson and Maher Farrukh
Death of leader may fracture TTP
07 NOV 2013: The TTP selected
Mullah Fazlullah as the new emir of the
TTP. Fazlullah was not from the
powerful Mehsud faction.
1
12 FEB 2018: Mullah Fazlullah
appointed Mehsud faction leader Noor
Wali as the deputy leader of the TTP.
3
13 JUN 2018: A U.S. airstrike killed
TTP emir Mullah Fazlullah in Kunar
province, eastern Afghanistan.
4
02 FEB 2017: Mullah Fazlullah
appointed a leader from the
Mehsud faction as his deputy to
bring the faction back into the TTP.
2

6. Sahel
6
Suspected Salafi-jihadi groups challenge
Burkina Faso on second front
Reilly Andreasen
BURKINA FASO
BENIN
TOGO
1. 13 FEB: Militants attacked police in
Natiaboani, killing one officer and
injuring two others.
2. 07 MAR: Militants fired at a forest
ranger post in Tanwalbougou.
3. 09 MAR: Militants attacked a forest
ranger post in Nassougou.
4. 15 MAR: Militants attacked a forest
ranger post in Nassougou, killing one
ranger.
5. 06 JUN: Militants fired at the police
station and gendarmerie in Comin-
Yanga. Militants simultaneously
attacked a traffic police station in
Tindangou, killing one policeman.
1
3
2
4
5
5

7. 7Jake Barnett
Boko Haram-Shekau attacks population
centers despite Nigerian security operations
Nigeria
1. 09 JUN: Nigerian security
forces foiled a Boko Haram
suicide bombing in Maiduguri,
Borno State.
2. 11 JUN: A Boko Haram
suicide bomber conducted an
attack near Maikore Junction,
Maiduguri, Borno State, killing
two people.
3. 11 JUN: Militants from
Abubakr Shekau’s faction
torched villages in Madagali,
Adamawa while looting food.
4. 16 JUN: Militants from
Abubakr Shekau’s faction
launched a complex attack
using SVESTs and RPGs in
Damboa, Borno State, killing
43 civilians.
12
34

8. Acronym List
AMISOM: African Union Mission in Somalia
AQAP: al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
AQIM: al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb
AQIS: al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent
BDB: Benghazi Defense Brigades
BRSC: Benghazi Revolutionaries Shura Council
CJA: Congress for Justice in Azawad
CMA: Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad
GATIA: Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group
ISGS: ISIS in the Greater Sahara
ISIS: Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham
JNIM: Jama’a Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen
GNA: Libyan Government of National Accord
LNA: Libyan National Army
MAA: Arab Movement of Azawad
MINUSMA: United National Multidimensional
Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali
MNLA: National Movement for the Liberation of the
Azawad
MSCD: Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna
MUJAO: Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa
SNA: Somalia National Army
TTP: Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan
8

9. For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.
Contact us at criticalthreats@aei.org or (202) 888-6575.
Frederick W. Kagan
Director
Critical Threats Project Team
Katherine Zimmerman
Research Manager
Caroline Goodson
Program Manager
9
al Qaeda Analysts
Emily Estelle
Maher Farrukh
Jake Barnett
Iran Analysts
Mike Saidi
Nicholas Carl
Digital Content
Associate
Katie Donnelly