Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Battery innovation: Incremental or Disruptive?

2,257 views

Published on

Presentation Source

Published in: Engineering
  • Be the first to comment

Battery innovation: Incremental or Disruptive?

  1. 1. BATTERY INNOVATION: INCREMENTAL OR DISRUPTIVE? ALBERT CHEUNG / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
  2. 2. LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST AND PRODUCTION, 2010- 30 Total pack cost ($/kWh) Annual production (MWh 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 / / / / / / 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 - Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 0 TODAY’S RANGE: $400-1500/KWH 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 Annual battery production (GWh) Battery pack price (2010 $/kWh)
  3. 3. EV LITHIUM ION BATTERY SUPPLY & DEMAND (MWH) / / / / / / Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 12,200 27,900 33,300 2,400 8,800 16,000 2011 2012 2013 Annualized supply capacity Declared annual demand
  4. 4. COST IS JUST ONE OBJECTIVE / / / / / / COST CALENDAR LIFE ENERGY DENSITY POWER DENSITY CYCLE LIFE IDEAL BATTERY SAFETY
  5. 5. WHERE WILL GAINS BE MADE? Raw/processed materials Battery materials / / / / / / Cells Packs Vehicle Integration Cost Performance Alternative electrodes / electrolytes Materials development Cell size and format Cell design features Pack design Thermal management Pack assembly Chassis integration LFP, NCM, electrolytes, etc. Process improvement & scale Integration with other vehicle systems
  6. 6. ‘INCREMENTAL’ IMPROVEMENT IN CATHODE CHEMISTRY CATHODE COMPOSITION NCM PROPERTIES Current NCM LCO LMO Future NCM? / / / / / / • NCM is one of several cathode types in use • Blend of three lithium oxides: nickel / cobalt / manganese • Major users include Sanyo (Panasonic) and GS Yuasa • Good energy density • Moderate safety (not as stable as LFP) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. less less more Future NCM? Ni Co Mn
  7. 7. ‘INCREMENTAL’ IMPROVEMENTS IN CATHODE CHEMISTRY CATHODE COMPOSITION LMO AND LCO PROPERTIES Current NCM LCO LMO Future NCM? / / / / / / LCO: lithium cobalt oxide • Older technology (consumer batteries) • Good energy density • Poor safety / thermal properties LMO: lithium manganese oxide • Current technology (eg Nissan, GM, LG Chem) • Good safety / thermal properties • No expensive cobalt • Lower energy density Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Future NCM? Ni Co Mn
  8. 8. ‘INCREMENTAL’ IMPROVEMENTS IN CATHODE CHEMISTRY CATHODE COMPOSITION POSSIBLE FUTURE BLENDS OF NCM Current NCM LCO LMO Future NCM? / / / / / / Less cobalt? • Lower cost • Better safety / thermal properties • Similar performance More nickel? • Increases energy density More manganese? • Potentially much higher energy density and lower cost • Needs better electrolytes and anode • Very early stage Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Future NCM? Ni Co Mn
  9. 9. ‘DISRUPTIVE’ CHANGE IN ANODE MATERIALS: SILICON • Silicon theoretically absorbs 10x as many Li ions as graphite - much higher E density • Historic problem: silicon structures suffer from fatigue/pulverisation after a few cycles • Solution: nanostructures / nanowires • Axeon claims energy density improvement of 35%, Panasonic claims 20% • Panasonic and LG Chem aim to launch Si-anode consumer batteries in 2012-13 • Only small cell formats being commercialised / / / / / / Source: Images from Nexeon.
  10. 10. ‘DISRUPTIVE’ CHANGE IN ANODE MATERIALS: SILICON / / / / / / Source: Images from Nexeon. Carbon anode: 6C + Li+ + e- ↔ LiC6 Silicon anode: 4Si + 15Li+ + 15e- ↔ Li15Si4
  11. 11. MAX CAPACITY OF 18650-FORMAT LI-ION CELLS (AH) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 New Si-anode 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 / / / / / / Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Nikkei.
  12. 12. CELL AND PACK DESIGN CHOICES NUMBER OF CELLS IN MAIN EV MODELS CONSIDERATIONS 315 288 192 192 Tesla Roadster BMW Mini-E Fisker Karma Chevrolet Volt Renault Fluence Nissan Leaf / / / / / / 18,650 format (consumer cells, 2-3Ah): • Leverages decades of experience • Sophisticated management system needed • Not as applicable for PHEV Larger cells (up to 50Ah): • Easier packaging and thermal mgmt • Greater potential for improvement with experience • Second life considerations? 88 5,088 6,831 Mitsubishi i-MiEV
  13. 13. OTHER AREAS OF INNOVATION / / / / / / • Air vs. liquid cooling • Small vs. large cells • Intra/inter-cell thermal gradients • Use of CFD and advanced BMS Source: Images from Axeon. THERMAL MANAGEMENT VEHICLE INTEGRATION • Bespoke vehicle platforms • Battery placing and design can impact: • Handling • Safety • Cost
  14. 14. CONCLUSIONS • There will continue to be innovation at every step of the value chain • There are no clear lines between ‘incremental’, ‘step-change’ and ‘disruptive’ innovation • Innovation is non-linear and the experience curve hides many subtleties • There will be winners and losers • There are technologies that could ‘re-boot’ the experience curve: lithium-air, magnesium-ion, flow batteries, nanotube electrodes, etc... / / / / / /
  15. 15. / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

×