- The document discusses the growing military presence and conflict between Russia and Ukraine. It notes Russia has amassed over 42,000 troops, 1,135 armored vehicles, and 180 aircraft on Ukraine's borders. Russian forces have been shelling Ukrainian positions daily. - Within Ukraine, there are estimated to be 12,000-13,000 Russian-backed mercenaries fighting Ukrainian troops. Ukraine's military was in disarray prior to the conflict but has since expanded territory under its control, though progress has been slow. - The author believes a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine is imminent, as Ukraine's military would be unable to withstand Russia's superior forces and the West would not intervene militarily due to nuclear

1. 9/8/2014 The elephant in the room. Discussion. - Politics - Quora
mspolitics.quora.com http://mspolitics.quora.com/The­elephant­in­the­room­Discussion
The elephant in the room. Discussion.
Hello everyone and today I want to talk about something that is on the tip of everyone's tongue ­will
there be an
open war between Russia and Ukraine, and if YES ­what
will the rest of the world do.
I would like this post to be a discussion where you can post your thoughts in the comment section below.
I don't want to make any predictions, so lets just look at the fact and what do we know for sure:
1) For the whole month our intelligence has been saying that Russia is increasing its military presence
across our borders and this is how it looks like:
OUTSIDE UKRAINE
Total number of men ­42
000
Number of Armored carriers ­1135
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2. 9/8/2014 The elephant in the room. Discussion. - Politics - Quora
Tanks ­150+
Artillery units ­250+
Multiple Rocket launching platforms (Grad) ­70+
Airplanes ­180+
(for comparison the number of offensive aircrafts we have is about 15 or so ­VERY
VERY
small amount)
Helicopter ­about
a 100.
Russian military has been increasing these numbers for over a month now. Every single day we have
information that different military groups are joining up with the existing forces.
­ALL
personnel have been involved in recent huge training exercises.
­Artillery
in the east is shelling our positions EVERY FUCKING DAY and our government just "reports" that,
even US and EU has already said that "Yes, it is true ­Russia
is firing on Ukrainian positions" and showed the
satellite images proving that.
Just check out how these young Russian soldiers loving doing selfies and uploading them to the social network
sites do the work for us Как дурной пример Медведева доведет до Гааги Путина. Фото, видео. Fucking
morons!
EDIT: I see people already don't believe that Russia is shelling Ukrainian military, because they either don't
check the links I post or because they don't speak Russian (fair enough). In summary this is the daily activity of
Russian forces on our positions which has been reported by our government, by US government, by EU
government, by hundreds of our military who are being shot at, our intelligence and by russian soldiers who post
their selfies on the web telling that they have been "shelling Ukraine all night".
Yet our toothless government is too afraid to say out loud that "Yes ­it
is official, we are at war with Russian
Federation, we have been attacked by Russian artillery forces and we now consider Russian military as
"hostile"."
They are afraid to do that because it will mean A CERTAIN invasion, and we are unprepared. But the opposite ­just
sitting and whipping in silence is extremely frustrating and humiliating for our nation. People are getting
angry with the central government.
INSIDE UKRAINE
Estimated number of mercenaries INSIDE Ukraine already fighting our guys is about 12000 ­13000.
They are
very well equipped. And they are very good ­I
will prove it later in the post.
2) Our guys.
It is VERY IMPORTANT to understand that the previous government did EVERYTHING to fuck up our military ­a
lot of the stock was sold as scrap (great value, fucking morons, these were things we could have used in the
war, but it was sold at a small fraction of it cost and all the money went to the "family" (Yanukovych ­ex
president).
So at the start of the war in March we had without exaggeration ­NO
ARMY. Seriously, it was in complete
disarray, Russian Army was IN TOP FORM to invade on the 3rd of March. It was in the exact position it is now. I
really wonder why they haven't invaded then.
Since then we didn't really do much ­only
contained the situation. The beginning of the proper offensive by our
forces can be considered as roughly 1 of June 2014. The map of the Anti Terrorist Zone (later ATZ) can be
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3. 9/8/2014 The elephant in the room. Discussion. - Politics - Quora
shown as this:
On the 4th of August the map looks like this:
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4. 9/8/2014 The elephant in the room. Discussion. - Politics - Quora
Certainly a lot of improvement and clearly our forces (if all things being equal will win).
But lets consider the following ­the
number of our soldier is approximately 30 000 (about 2,5 more in infantry).
Terrorists DO HAVE heavy armor, but its something like 10­15
tanks, 20­30
armored carriers and several rocket
launch platforms (Grad), several artillery pieces and about 40 mortars. Something of the kind.
Our forces have dozens of tanks, dozens of armored carriers, we have aircraft offensive capabilities (terrorists
don't have any planes). We have SIGNIFICANTLY more artillery and mortars.
And yet it took us ABOUT 30 DAYS to produce that result! Thats not extremely impressive! Considering our
guys have a very high morale because they are fighting for their own country!
That shows that terrorists have very good equipment (by the way ­they
have dozens of RPGs, so our armor is
not that effective) including Buk missile system capable of shooting down our offensive air capabilities. All in all ­they
hold against our army pretty well. They are losing ­but
in no way quickly or not quickly enough so that we
can be fully ready to repel the invasion of Russian forces.
3) Why do I think that the war is coming?
Almost every official in Europe and USA has said something like "we are afraid that the war is a real
possibility and we need to be prepared (although I am curious in what way THEY have to prepare. Watch
less soaps on weekends? Seriously, what do they mean?) Here is what Obama said in his latest interview
to the Economist:
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5. 9/8/2014 The elephant in the room. Discussion. - Politics - Quora
Economist asked him about Putin and him being "difficult"
OBAMA: But I do think it’s important to keep perspective. Russia doesn't make anything. Immigrants aren't
rushing to Moscow in search of opportunity. The life expectancy of the Russian male is around 60 years old. The
population is shrinking. And so we have to respond with resolve in what are effectively regional challenges that
Russia presents. We have to make sure that they don't escalate where suddenly nuclear weapons are back in
the discussion of foreign policy. And as long as we do that, then I think history is on our side.
Anything on the US economy? I noticed the occasional cover story saying how unfriendly to business we are.
I LOVE the last question, something like "ok this is a hard topic ­do
you mind if we talk about the economy"
And I love what he says about the nukes ­many
of the people here on Quora, including my very good friend
Gene Linetsky is convinced that the war WILL NOT happen. But what if Russia begins the war? EU and USA will
obviously step in but Putin will say "unless you step back ­I
am using nuclear weapons on Ukraine, got that?"
WHAT WILL THE USA AND EU DO?! Nothing ­they
will shut the fuck up and watch us die, because this is a
theater and no one in USA and EU REALLY cares about our civilian lives. France is supplying them with
weapons and the ONLY way they have changed their own perspective on Russia is when MH17 was shot down
and their own people got hurt. So obviously they will back down saying "This is a fight of Ukraine, this nation has
all rights in the world to defend itself, good luck lads." And thats it. Most certainly Putin won't use the nuckes, but
there is nothing stopping him in speculating that he will "to protect the Russians".
Thats precisely why our minister of Interior is saying that the west needs to help us NOW with weapons (another
thing ­he
started talking about 2­3
days ago, saying that Europe can either help us stop Russia now or fight it
tomorrow).
Oh by the way ­our
secretary of the security council has just resigned due to the "differences in opinions with
the president according to the information policy" Парубій написав заяву на звільнення ­ЗМІ,
meaning that he
WANTS to tell us that the war is soon to happen, but the President doesn't because it will spread the panic (I
think that). Mr. Parubii was the head of the Euromaidan and gained quite a lot of respect in the masses for what
he did. All I know is that he has balls. and he doesn't like bullshit, he likes to cut to the truth.
During the offensive they WILL sustain heavy casualties due to air attacks that they can't prevent due to
complete air superiority of Russia. All in all ­our
best troops (30 000) will be dead in a week.
So the separatists are bleeding us dry, so that when Russia strikes it will be much easier to crush our Army,
while the separatists counter attack on all fronts squeezing and eliminating our forces from both sides.
And by the way if you have missed from reading the diagrams we have about 150 km of UNCONTROLLED
border, where the Russian troops can simply WALK in with little resistance.
August is the time of harvesting. And its no secret that Ukraine has a huge deficit in carbohydrates:
1) Gas (Kiev had NO HOT WATER today, because we need to "save gas" how do you like that? З
сьогоднішнього дня гарячу воду відключили всім киянам. There are 2 explanation ­either
they are saving for
the winter (thats their number 1 reason) or they are saving gas due to the possibility of invasion.
2) Because Russia doesn't sell us any oil now and we need oil for our OWN harvesting we expect a deficit in oil
for the military ­EXCELLENT
timing to invade! What good will our tanks do if we don't have enough oil to move
them?!
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6. 9/8/2014 The elephant in the room. Discussion. - Politics - Quora
Today our intelligence reported that 2 separatists (Oleg Tsaryov and Alexander Borodai) who have fled Donetsk
and went to Russia HAVE NOW RETURNED TO DONETSK!
Why the fuck would they do that?!
If you look at the map ­it
shows that Donetsk is completely surrounded, so clearly our own security council is
lying to us (because these are VERY high value targets and they HAVEN'T been spotted and captured during
their travels to Donetsk. Also BECAUSE the Donetsk is surrounded we expect our military to start storming it
soon ­it
would have been a SUICIDE to go in there today UNLESS they have been given a confirmation from
Russia that they will invade VERY soon. Tsaryov and Borodai would have never risked their own lives.
So after reading all this ­please
tell me ladies and gentlemen what do you think? Do you still think the war is
NOT going to happen?
This is the latest statement from the White House:
Daily Press Briefing: August 4, 2014, please go to "Russia" section to read the latest from the white house.
The Russians finish their military exercise on the 8th of August.
Oh by the way ­check
out the life in Crimea now, JUST LOOK AT THESE PEOPLE!
They don't even look like NORMAL people. Vice done a great job depicting the REALITY.
P.S. Concerning my last post, I have brought it to you for information, it wasn't about action just yet, we are
evaluating different options both on how exact to fundraise and where the money will go, obviously there will be
a follow up on that saying exactly what is our fundraising program and where the funds will go ­stay
tuned and
please keep sharing and promoting. Thanks a lot! You have been GREAT!
Suggest Edits
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