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Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa?
 

Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa?

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Claudia Ringler

Claudia Ringler
Copenhagen, COP 15
December 11, 2009

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    Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa? Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa? Presentation Transcript

    • Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa? Claudia Ringler Copenhagen, COP 15 December 11, 2009
    • Outline 1. Climate Change Compromises Food Security 2. Role of Agriculture in GHG Emissions 3. Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation 4. Recommendations INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    • Climate Change Compromises Food Security
    • CC Pushes Food Prices Upwards Page 4 Source: IFPRI (2009)
    • CC Increases Food Import Needs for Developing Countries Page 5 Source: IFPRI (2009) Source: IFPRI (2009)
    • CC Increases Child Malnutrition Page 6 Source: IFPRI (2009)
    • ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN GHG EMISSIONS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    • Share of Emissions Share of global total GHG emissions by source Developed Countries Developing Countries 70 60% % total of GHG emissions 60 74% of agricultural 50 emissions from 40 developing countries 30 20 18% 14% 10 4% 4% 0 Energy Deforestation Agriculture Industrial Waste (excluding land processes use change) Sources: World Resources Institute (2007); World Development Report (2008)
    • Share of Emissions by Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: CAIT (2008), World Resources Institute
    • Potential for Mitigation through Agriculture  GHG emissions from agriculture are expected to increase because • food production will have to grow by 190% bw 2000-2050 to meet rising demand • food preferences are shifting towards commodities that contribute to greater GHG emissions  By 2030, the technical potential of mitigation through agriculture is expected to be 5,500-6,000 MtCO2e  By 2030, the economic potential of mitigation through agriculture is expected to be 1,500-4,300 MtCO2e (at carbon prices of US$100 per tCO2e) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    • Potential for Mitigation through Agriculture in Africa (17% of the global total) Economic Mitigation Potential by 2030 at 0-20$/ton CO2eq (MtCO2e/yr) Rest. Rest. Cropland Grazing Other organic degraded Total mgt. land mgt. practices soils land East Africa 28 27 25 13 15 109 Central 13 12 11 6 7 49 Africa North Africa 6 6 6 3 3 25 South Africa 6 5 5 3 3 22 West Africa 16 15 14 7 8 60 Total 69 (26%) 65 (25%) 61 (23%) 33 (12%) 37 (14%) 265 Source: Smith et al. (2008)
    • Africa’s Share in Carbon Markets is TINY Source: Capoor and Ambrosi (2008)
    • Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation
    • Synergies between Adaptation, Mitigation and Profitability  Agronomic Practices: Improved crop varieties, cover crops, green manure, crop rotations, and intercropping, reduced tillage  Nutrient Management: Mulching, improved fallowing, manure management, composting, and improved fertilizer use efficiency  Residue Management  Water Management (e.g. terracing and water harvesting)  Agroforestry  Restoration and Rehabilitation of Degraded Land  Livestock and Rangeland Management
    • Synergies and Tradeoffs between Mitigation and Food Security Integrated soil fertility management Mitigation Potential Improved seed Source: Adapted from FAO (2009) Biofuels High Irrigation (low energy Conservation tillage/ using..) residue management Conservation tillage/residue management Improved fallow Overgrazing GW pumping Soil nutrient mining Low Mechanized farming Bare fallow Low High Food Security Prospects
    • Profits are Higher for Mitigation Practices: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009)
    • Returns to Labor are Higher for Mitigation Practices: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009)
    • Mitigating Practices Support Long-term Crop Yield Sustainability: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009) Rice (yields of last 10 years minus yields of first 10 years, 30-year simulation period)
    • Mitigating Practices Support Long-term Crop Yield Sustainability: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009) Maize (yields of last 10 years minus yields of first 10 years, 30-year simulation period)
    • Conclusions
    • Potential for Agricultural Mitigation in SSA is Large  Agriculture can contribute to mitigation because: • It is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors • Potential is considerable: 17% of global total agricultural mitigation potential  Agricultural mitigation could provide US$5.3 billion (@ US$20/ton carbon) to smallholders in SSA (3-4 times the annual aid flows to agriculture) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
    • Many Obstacles Prevent the Fulfillment of this Potential  But… agriculture is currently excluded from formal carbon markets  And.. even if agriculture is included, SSA faces huge challenges due to : • high transaction costs • Insecure and complex property rights • substantial need for capacity building INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 22
    • Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation are Large  Agriculture can mitigate emissions through adoption of agricultural technologies and management practices that can also help farmers adapt to climate change  Many synergies have been identified between agricultural adaptation, mitigation and income generation for SSA farmers  To maximize synergies and reduce tradeoffs, mitigation and adaptation strategies should be closely integrated INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
    • The Way Forward  Continue to fund pilot studies on smallholder agricultural mitigation, started by WB Biocarbon Fund and IFAD  Encourage the inclusion of agriculture (and forestry) in the post-Kyoto Agreement with simple standards for measuring GHG offsets  Target voluntary markets that include agriculture  Invest in capacity building and development of institutional frameworks for project implementation and verification INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE