Presented on Role of development policies in combating climate change issues in Indian Agriculture: A first order assessment of irrigation and fertilizer policies at International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE) from 07-15 August 2015 at Milan, Italy.

1. Role of development policies in combating
climate change issues in Indian Agriculture
- A first order assessment of irrigation and fertilizer
policies
P.K. Joshi1, P.K. Aggarwal2, N.K. Tyagi3 & Divya Pandey1
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)1, International
Water Management Institute (IWMI)2 & Independent consultant (Land,
water and environment)3

2. Twin challenges for Indian agriculture
Adaptation
• 30-40% decline in crop yields (Kumar, 1998 in Sanghi & Mendelsohn,
2007)
• Source of livelihood for 58% of the population
• GDP contribution: 14.2%
Mitigation
• 0.6 million Gg CO2eq annual GHG emissions (FaoStat, 2015)
• 12% of world’s annual GHG emissions from agriculture
• 19% of the country’s total annual GHG emissions
DIVYA PANDEY

3. DIVYA PANDEY
“...Taking a firm stand that agriculture was a clear out-of-bounds sector with
respect to emissions reduction, India stalled all attempts of the developed world
to further discuss the issue in the ongoing CoP 18. The developing world’s long-
standing position has been that any discussion on agriculture must be held in
the realm of adaptation, not mitigation…”
03 December, 2012

4. DIVYA PANDEY
“India has scored an early victory at the climate negotiations here, ensuring
that the talks remain focused on adapting agricultural practices to climate
change and not on costly emission reduction measures that would impact
farmers directly.”
14 November, 2013

5. Adaptation-led-mitigation measures
(Jalloh et al. 2013)
“Against the background of the debate on the relative emphasis on
adaptation and mitigation, it is worth noting that in many instances the best
bets for improved agricultural production and sustainable management
of natural resources also have considerable mitigation potential.”
DIVYA PANDEY

6. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture
(NMSA) (2010)
• Launched as a part of the National Action Plan on Climate Change
(NAPCC)
• Aims to:
 Make agriculture more productive, sustainable, remunerative and
climate resilient
 Water use efficiency, nutrient management etc.
DIVYA PANDEY

7. Development or “non-climate policies” too
have a role to play…
• Urwin & Jordan (2008): Role of “non-climate policies” explored
for agriculture, water resources and nature conservation
• Smith et al. (2007): Potential role of “non-climate policies” in GHG
mitigation from agriculture
• Not deliberately initiated to combat the challenges of climate change
• Yet, they continue to have significant bearings on how a sector deals
with climate change
DIVYA PANDEY

8. Irrigation and fertilizer sectors
Source - flickr/IFPRI-images Source - flickr/IITA
DIVYA PANDEY

9. Fertilizer subsidies and Expenditure on
irrigation (1992-2012)
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
8th (1992‐97) 9th (1997‐02) 10th (2002‐07) 11th (2007‐2012)
Fertilizer
Irrigation
Plan Periods
% of total expenditure outlay on irrigation % of fertilizer subsidy to GDP at current prices
Source - GoI (2011); Planning Commission (2013) and Gulati & Narayanan (2003)
DIVYA PANDEY

10. How have irrigation and fertilizer sectors
shaped India’s response to climate change?
• We develop a methodology to quantitatively assess the impact of
irrigation and fertilizer policies
• Assess impact by creating indices for:
 Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions
 Adaptation and Resilience
 Sustainability (Water and Soil)
• Time period considered: 1990 - 2010
DIVYA PANDEY

11. 1. Mitigation index (MI)
• Compute the aggregated and disaggregated contribution of
irrigation and fertilizers
• Compute the reduction in GHGs –
 Considering avoided forest land conversion due to increased
crop productivity (AFC)
 Without considering avoided forest land conversion (NAFC)
DIVYA PANDEY

12. 1. Mitigation index (MI) (cont’d)
• ETBY: Emissions in the base year (1990)
• ETFY: Emissions in the final year (2010)
• EMTFY: Maximum emissions in the final year, in the absence of any
technology adoption
• IIFAFC: Intensification of GHG emissions, with consideration of
avoided deforestation benefits
• IIFNAFC: Intensification of GHG emissions, without consideration of
avoided deforestation benefits
DIVYA PANDEY

13. 1. Mitigation index (MI) (cont’d)
DIVYA PANDEY

14. 1. Mitigation index (MI): Results
Source – FaoStat (2015); Authors’ calculation
DIVYA PANDEY
181
193
430
237
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Emissions (1990) Emissions with
technology adoption
(2010)
Emissions without
technology adoption
(2010)
Emission decrease in
2010, due to
adoption of
technologies
Emissions(MtCO2eq)
Virtual Mitigation

15. 1. Mitigation index (MI): Results
MIAFC (%) MINAFC (%)
Irrigation
(Surface and
Groundwater)
91.37 58.43
Fertilizer 94.48 49.75
Source - Author’s’ calculation
DIVYA PANDEY

16. 2. Adaptation index (AI)
• FGPBY: Per capita food grain production in base year (1990)
• FGPFY: Per capita food grain production in final year (2010)
DIVYA PANDEY

17. 2. Adaptation index (AI): Results
Increase in food
production
(kg/ha/yr)
Adaptation Index
(AI) (%)
Irrigation and fertilizer 72.00 26.10
Irrigation
(Surface and
Groundwater)
28.74 10.56
Fertilizer 14.37 5.28
Source – Authors’ calculation
DIVYA PANDEY

18. 3. Resilience
• VP1: Variance of food production in 1st time period (1991-2000)
= 5334.7
• VP2: Variance of food production in 2nd time period (2001-2010)
= 5379.8
• 0.8% difference between the two time periods, suggesting high
resilience
DIVYA PANDEY

19. 4. Sustainability indices: Water
DIVYA PANDEY
Indicator 2000 2010 2050
Degree of
development ratio
(DDS)1
0.522
(High)
0.586
(High)
0.938
(Extremely high)
Groundwater
abstraction ratio
(GWAR)2
0.530
(Normal)
0.657
(High)
1.00
(Extremely high)
Source - Amarsinghe, et al. (2004)1 and Committee on Groundwater Resources Estimation Report
(GoI,2009)2

20. 4. Sustainability indices: Soil
• Mehta (2007), measures deviation from recommended use of N, P and
K, using Fertilizer use imbalance index (FLiBI)
DIVYA PANDEY
Source - Mehta (2007)
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
1990-91 1993-94 1996-97 1990-2000 2002-03 2005-06
FLiBI

21. Concluding remarks
• Fertilizer and irrigation policies have led to -
• Increase in adaptation and resilience
• Reduction in GHG emissions (Virtual mitigation)
• Adaptation would continue to be primary area for combating climate
change issues in Indian agriculture
• But, future research and policies could consider factoring in incidental
GHGs reduction for adaptation-led-mitigation
DIVYA PANDEY

22. DIVYA PANDEY