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The importance of Rice in Senegal

Rice is the most consumed cereal in Senegal, accounting for 34% of total cereal consumption. Per capita consumption is 80-90kg annually, though there is an urban-rural divide. While domestic production has doubled between 2010-2021, it still only meets 40% of demand. As a result, Senegal imports around 1 million tons annually, mainly from India and Thailand. Several public policies aim to incentivize domestic production and stabilize prices, though rice remains highly exposed to international price shocks due to its importance in consumption and reliance on imports.

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The importance of Rice in Senegal
IFPRI – AMIS Policy Seminar Series
Fousseini Traoré
Markets, Trade & Institutions Unit
IFPRI
October 18, 2023
Demand side
 The most consumed cereal in Senegal
 34 % of cereal consumption (54 % Urban and 24 % rural; Beye 2023)
 Consumption/capita: 80kg - 90kg (CFC, 2022)
o Urban-rural gradient as well
o Increased by 7.4% between 2010 and 2019
Source: Marivoet (2023)
 High exposure to external shocks (share in consumption + share of imports)
Share_food_total Share_rice_total Share_rice_food
Urban 0.62 0.08 0.14
Rural 0.67 0.12 0.18
Total 0.63 0.10 0.15
Share in expenditure
Supply side (1/2)
 Irrigated variety: Senegal river valley in the North/East
 Rainfed rice: south
Source: Faye et al. (2020)
Supply side (2/2)
 40% of total cereal production
 Production doubled between 2010 and 2021 but still insufficient
 Imports stable around 1 million tons (IDR>50%)
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Tons
Production Imports
Source: FAOSTAT
Evolution of production and imports
Imports
 Mainly from Asia
 On average : imports
from India=57% of total
imports (1st partner),
THA=2nd with 15%
Main partners
Source: UN COMTRADE
Projections
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
1000
T
Average of Production_Sim Average of Demand_sim
Source: Diop and Traoré (2022)
Price transmission
 Domestic price follows world prices (CI)
 Domestic price less volatile (4 vs 28% for India_25)
 Asymmetric transmission, market power: Sall et al (2022)
Source: FAO-FMPA tool
Evolution of prices: Index 100=Jan 2021
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
National average India_25% Thai_25%
Impact of high prices
 Share in consumption and imports (cf. intro)
 Study by Sossou and Igue (2019):
o 4 scenarios simulated (only 2 presented)
oSim 1 (SR): Pp and Pc increase by 15%, no hhd or Prod. response
oSim2 (LR): PP and Pc increase by 15% and both hhds and Prods react
Short run Long run
Sim1 Sim2
National level 4.35 4.26
Urban 5.28 5.66
Rural 2.75 2.55
Impact on poverty (P0, pp): expenditure per adult equivalent
Public policies
 Price incentives
oNRP: 14% (FAO, 2020)
oNRA: 24%
oCET: 10%
oOther measures frequently used since 2008: duty and VAT exemptions,
price and margin ceilings, consumption subsidies, etc.
 Public expenditure: rice sector is a top priority in the PRACAS
o63% of public ag expenditure (FAO, 2020)
oInvestment in irrigation
oInput subsidies (cf. NRA)
 Challenge: Maybe the upstream sectors a bit neglected?

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The importance of Rice in Senegal

  • 1. The importance of Rice in Senegal IFPRI – AMIS Policy Seminar Series Fousseini Traoré Markets, Trade & Institutions Unit IFPRI October 18, 2023
  • 2. Demand side  The most consumed cereal in Senegal  34 % of cereal consumption (54 % Urban and 24 % rural; Beye 2023)  Consumption/capita: 80kg - 90kg (CFC, 2022) o Urban-rural gradient as well o Increased by 7.4% between 2010 and 2019 Source: Marivoet (2023)  High exposure to external shocks (share in consumption + share of imports) Share_food_total Share_rice_total Share_rice_food Urban 0.62 0.08 0.14 Rural 0.67 0.12 0.18 Total 0.63 0.10 0.15 Share in expenditure
  • 3. Supply side (1/2)  Irrigated variety: Senegal river valley in the North/East  Rainfed rice: south Source: Faye et al. (2020)
  • 4. Supply side (2/2)  40% of total cereal production  Production doubled between 2010 and 2021 but still insufficient  Imports stable around 1 million tons (IDR>50%) 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Tons Production Imports Source: FAOSTAT Evolution of production and imports
  • 5. Imports  Mainly from Asia  On average : imports from India=57% of total imports (1st partner), THA=2nd with 15% Main partners Source: UN COMTRADE
  • 7. Price transmission  Domestic price follows world prices (CI)  Domestic price less volatile (4 vs 28% for India_25)  Asymmetric transmission, market power: Sall et al (2022) Source: FAO-FMPA tool Evolution of prices: Index 100=Jan 2021 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 National average India_25% Thai_25%
  • 8. Impact of high prices  Share in consumption and imports (cf. intro)  Study by Sossou and Igue (2019): o 4 scenarios simulated (only 2 presented) oSim 1 (SR): Pp and Pc increase by 15%, no hhd or Prod. response oSim2 (LR): PP and Pc increase by 15% and both hhds and Prods react Short run Long run Sim1 Sim2 National level 4.35 4.26 Urban 5.28 5.66 Rural 2.75 2.55 Impact on poverty (P0, pp): expenditure per adult equivalent
  • 9. Public policies  Price incentives oNRP: 14% (FAO, 2020) oNRA: 24% oCET: 10% oOther measures frequently used since 2008: duty and VAT exemptions, price and margin ceilings, consumption subsidies, etc.  Public expenditure: rice sector is a top priority in the PRACAS o63% of public ag expenditure (FAO, 2020) oInvestment in irrigation oInput subsidies (cf. NRA)  Challenge: Maybe the upstream sectors a bit neglected?