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The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries: Issues facing the world's poor

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The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries: Issues facing the world's poor

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Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012

Presented by Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, and Delia Grace at the Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference, Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012

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The production and consumption of livestock products in developing countries: Issues facing the world's poor

  1. 1. The production and consumption of livestock products in developingfuture: Production systems for the countries: balancing trade-offs between food production, efficiency, livelihoodsworld'senvironment Issues facing the and the poor Nancy Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Mario Herrero, Shirley Tarawali, Susan MacMillan, Delia GraceP.K. Thornton M. Herrero and Farm Animal Integrated Research 2012 Conference WCCA/Nairobi Forum Presentation Washington DC, March 4–6, 2012st 21 September 2010 | ILRI, Nairobi
  2. 2. Overview Global poverty and undernutrition Consumption and production of livestock products: – trends – drivers – future projections Challenges ahead Opportunities for the poor
  3. 3. Main messages  The rising demand for livestock products in developing countries presents significant opportunities and threats  Choices about how to manage the global livestock sector have to be context specific.  Institutional innovation as important as technological innovation in charting the best ways forward.
  4. 4. Poverty and undernutrition
  5. 5. Changes in global poverty indicators  % of population living on less than $1.25/day – 1990 - 41.7% – 2005 - 25.2%  Millions of people living on less than $1.25/day – 1990 - 1,818 – 2005 - 1,374 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
  6. 6. Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 1990 Dark red: >80 Red: 60-80 Orange: 40-60 Light orange: 20-40 Yellow: <20 Grey: no data http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
  7. 7. Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 2000 Dark red: >80 Red: 60-80 Orange: 40-60 Light orange: 20-40 Yellow: <20 Grey: no data 7 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
  8. 8. Percent of population living on less than US$1.25/day - 2010 Dark red: >80 Red: 60-80 Orange: 40-60 Light orange: 20-40 Yellow: <20 Grey: no data 8 http://povertydata.worldbank.org/poverty/home/
  9. 9. FAO: SOFA2011
  10. 10. FAO: SOFA20011 10
  11. 11. Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  12. 12. Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries Trends ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  13. 13. FAO: SOFA2009
  14. 14. In 1980, 65% of production was in developed countries. In 2007, 61% was in developing countries FAO: SOFA 2009
  15. 15. Agricultural production by system Cereals Milk 4% 7% 14% 13% 45% 59% 17% 35% 2% 4% Beef Lamb agro-pastoral 9% mixed extensive 28% 28% mixed intensive 15% 50% other 5% developed countries 19% 18% 7% 21% Herrero et al. 2009
  16. 16. Growing trade in livestock commodities FAO: SOFA 2009
  17. 17. Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries Drivers ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  18. 18. Population growth by region: 1750 - 2050
  19. 19. FAO: SOFA 2009
  20. 20. Urbanization Source: Economist
  21. 21. Consumption and production of livestock products in developing countries Future projections ILRI Spearheading a New Way Forward
  22. 22. Projected global consumption in 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk Meat Milk (kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
  23. 23. Projected global consumption in 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk Meat Milk (kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
  24. 24. Projected global consumption in 2050 Annual per capita Total consumption consumption Year Meat Milk Meat Milk (kg) (kg) (Mt) (Mt) Developing 2002 28 44 137 222 2050 44 78 326 585 Developed 2002 78 202 102 265 2050 94 216 126 295 Source: Rosegrant et al 2009
  25. 25. The world will require 1 billion tonnes of additional cereal grains to 2050 to meet food and feed demands (IAASTD 2009) Grains 1048 million tonnes more to 2050 Livestock Human 430 million MT consumption (Monogastrics mostly) 458 million MT biofuels 160 million MT
  26. 26. Annual changes in Cereal Production 2000 - 2030 6 5 4 % 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Herrero et al 2009
  27. 27. Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030 8 7 6 5 % 4 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030 9 8 7 6 5 % 4 3 2 1 0 CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
  28. 28. Challenges ahead 28
  29. 29. Challenges ahead Disease 29
  30. 30. Livestock and human disease  Animal source foods are the biggest contributor to food-borne disease  Diseases transmitted from livestock & by livestock products kill more people each year than HIV or malaria  One new human disease emerges every 2 months - 20% of these from livestock (Jones et al., 2008) 15 key zoonotic diseases reported on HealthMap (2006- 2011) (Grace et al., 2011)
  31. 31. Livestock and animal disease  Animal disease can be the key constraint (ECF, tryps, Newcastle disease) – Remove it and animal populations double  Increasingly animal disease impacts are outside the livestock sector  Early-stage intensification associated with increased disease – Most of current growth in animal production is in early stage
  32. 32. Challenges ahead Environment 32
  33. 33. Use and impact of livestock production on land, water, biodiversity  Livestock production generates many negative externalities  Significant opportunities to increase efficiency in many systems—more production with fewer animals
  34. 34. Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kilogram of animal protein produced Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
  35. 35. Effect of climate change on livestock production Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Courtesy of A. Jarvis
  36. 36. Challenges ahead Social issues 36
  37. 37. Emerging concerns in developing countries Overconsumption Animal welfare Gender and equity, especially in the face of rapid change Conflict and transition to non-agricultural livelihoods 37
  38. 38. Opportunities for the poor
  39. 39.  Livestock demand will be met by a variety of sectors and systems  Currently a significant role for smallholders (30% of milk, 15-18% of poultry)  Highest potential in local and regional markets in developing countries
  40. 40. Strengthening livestock value chains Inputs & Consumers Production Processing Marketing Services  Enabling public policy and institutions  Access to input and output markets  Uptake of new improved technology  Public and private partnerships  Attention to gender and equity
  41. 41. CGIAR Research Program 3.7: More meat, milk and fish by and for the poor SHEEP & GOATS AQUACULTURE PIGS DAIRY 9 Target Value Chains
  42. 42. Managing risk and providing environmental services in rangelands  Largest land use system  High levels of poverty and food insecurity  Managing risk through livestock insurance  Exploring feasibility of environmental service schemes around wildlife conservation and/or carbon sequestration Potential for carbon sequestration in rangelands (Conant and Paustian 2002)
  43. 43. Some conclusions  The rising demand for livestock foods in poor countries presents – Opportunities • Pathway out of poverty and malnutrition • Less vulnerability in drylands • Sustainable mixed systems – Threats • Environmental degradation at local and global scales • Greater risk of disease and poor health • Greater risk of conflict and inequity
  44. 44.  Key issues for decision makers – appreciation of the vast divide in livestock production between rich and poor countries – intimate understanding of the specific local context for specific livestock value chains – reliable evidence-based assessments of the hard trade-offs involved in adopting any given approach to livestock development  Institutional innovations as important as technological/biological innovations in charting the best ways forward – Organization within the sector – Managing trade offs at multiple scales

Editor's Notes

  • FAO measure of undernutrition is based on energy only. IFPRI estimates that currently 2 billion people are undernourished using a definition that includes lack of calories as well as protein and micro nutrients.
  • Notes: Calculated using international prices for cereals, oilseeds, meats, dairy products and sugar. The FAO Food PriceIndex is calculated from 1990 to the present on a regular basis; in this figure it has been extended back to 1961 usingproxy price information. The index measures movements in international prices and not necessarily domestic prices.The United States GDP deflator is used to express the Food Price Index in real rather than nominal terms.
  • Diets change when people move to cities, more processed food and more meat

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