Shirley Mustafa IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT

1. 22nd session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group, 18 November 2022, Geneva 1
GLOBAL RICE MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Shirley Mustafa
FAO Markets and Trade Division
IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series
October 2023

2. 22nd session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group, 18 November 2022, Geneva
GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
380
410
440
470
500
530
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
Production Annual production growth (right axis)
f'cast
Million tonnes, milled eq. Percent
Global rice production
Thailand
Indonesia
Philippines
India
Vietnam
China (Mainland)
Bangladesh
Cambodia
Myanmar
Pakistan
Others
-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000
Output trends in the top ten producers
Forecast production change: 2023/24 vs. 2022/23
Thousands of tonnes, milled eq.
Latin America and Car.
Oceania
Europe
Africa
Northern America
Asia
-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000
2023/24 vs. 2022/23 2023/24 vs. 5-year average
Regional production trends
Forecast production change

3. 22nd session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group, 18 November 2022, Geneva
INTERNATIONAL PRICES AND TRADE
3
0
4
8
12
16
Africa Far East -
Asia
Near East -
Asia
Latin America
And Car.
Others
2023 f'cast
2024 f'cast
Million tonnes, milled eq.
Rice imports by region
0
4
8
12
16
20
India Thailand Viet
Nam
Pakistan USA Others
2023 f'cast
2024 f'cast
Million tonnes, milled eq.
Rice exports by origin
0
26
52
78
104
130
0
11
22
33
44
55
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Exports FAO All Rice Price Index*
*Jan-Sept. average for 2023
World trade and FAO All Rice Price Index
Million tonnes, milled eq. 2014-2016=100
f’cast
70
90
110
130
150
170
Sep-20
Dec-20
Mar-21
Jun-21
Sep-21
Dec-21
Mar-22
Jun-22
Sep-22
Dec-22
Mar-23
Jun-23
Sep-23
Indica Index
Aromatic Index
Japonica Index
Glutinous Index
FAO Rice Price Indices
2014-2016=100

4. 22nd session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group, 18 November 2022, Geneva
RICE UTILIZATION AND CLOSING STOCKS
4
470
480
490
500
510
520
530
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
Utilization
Production
f'cast
Million tonnes, milled eq.
Global production and utilization
20
24
28
32
36
40
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
0
40
80
120
160
200
Rest of the world India
China (Mainland) Stocks-to-use Ratio
Million tonnes, milled eq. Percent
f'cast
World rice stocks
0
7
14
21
28
35
0
13
26
39
52
65
2013-14
2014-15
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
2018-19
2019-20
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
2023-24
India Thailand
Viet Nam United States
Pakistan Stock-to-disappearance ratio
Million tonnes, milled eq. Percent
Stocks in the major rice exporters
f'cast

5. 22nd session of the AMIS Global Food Market Information Group, 18 November 2022, Geneva 5
THANK YOU
Shirley Mustafa
Economist
Markets and Trade Division
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Tel. +39-06-570-52202
e-mail: Shirley.Mustafa@fao.org