Synergies Between Mitigation and
 Adaptation to Climate Change:
What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa?


          ...
Outline
       1. Climate Change Compromises Food
          Security
       2. Role of Agriculture in GHG Emissions
      ...
Climate Change
Compromises Food Security
CC Pushes Food Prices Upwards




                         Source: IFPRI (2009)
                                       Pag...
CC Increases Food Import Needs
    for Developing Countries




                            Source: IFPRI (2009)
         ...
CC Increases Child Malnutrition




                                           Page 6
                            Source: ...
ROLE OF AGRICULTURE
                 IN GHG EMISSIONS




INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Share of Emissions
Share of global total GHG emissions by source

                                          Developed Coun...
Share of Emissions
by Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa




               Source: CAIT (2008), World Resources Institute
Potential for Mitigation
                     through Agriculture
     GHG emissions from agriculture are expected to
   ...
Potential for Mitigation
                      through Agriculture
                in Africa (17% of the global total)

  ...
Africa’s Share in Carbon Markets is TINY




                          Source: Capoor and Ambrosi (2008)
Synergies between
  Adaptation and Mitigation



   Synergies between
Adaptation and Mitigation
Synergies between
  Adaptation, Mitigation and Profitability
 Agronomic Practices: Improved crop varieties, cover
  crops...
Synergies and Tradeoffs between
                          Mitigation and Food Security
                                   ...
Profits are Higher for Mitigation Practices:
                  ex. Mali




                                Source: Nkonya...
Returns to Labor are Higher for Mitigation
            Practices: ex. Mali




                               Source: Nkon...
Mitigating Practices Support Long-term
       Crop Yield Sustainability: ex. Mali




                                    ...
Mitigating Practices Support Long-term
      Crop Yield Sustainability: ex. Mali




                                     ...
Conclusions
Potential for Agricultural Mitigation
                   in SSA is Large
       Agriculture can contribute to mitigation
...
Many Obstacles Prevent the
                Fulfillment of this Potential


       But… agriculture is currently excluded
...
Synergies between Adaptation and
               Mitigation are Large
     Agriculture can mitigate emissions through
    ...
The Way Forward

     Continue to fund pilot studies on smallholder
      agricultural mitigation, started by WB Biocarbo...
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Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa?

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This presentation describes first how climate change compromises food security and then explains the role of agriculture in greenhouse gas emissions. The crux is what
synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, with recommendations for implementation.

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Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change:What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa?

  1. 1. Synergies Between Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change: What is the potential for Sub-Saharan Africa? Claudia Ringler Copenhagen, COP 15 December 11, 2009
  2. 2. Outline 1. Climate Change Compromises Food Security 2. Role of Agriculture in GHG Emissions 3. Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation 4. Recommendations INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  3. 3. Climate Change Compromises Food Security
  4. 4. CC Pushes Food Prices Upwards Source: IFPRI (2009) Page 4
  5. 5. CC Increases Food Import Needs for Developing Countries Source: IFPRI (2009) Page 5 Source: IFPRI (2009)
  6. 6. CC Increases Child Malnutrition Page 6 Source: IFPRI (2009)
  7. 7. ROLE OF AGRICULTURE IN GHG EMISSIONS INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  8. 8. Share of Emissions Share of global total GHG emissions by source Developed Countries Developing Countries 70 60% % total of GHG emissions 60 74% of agricultural 50 emissions from 40 developing countries 30 20 18% 14% 10 4% 4% 0 Energy Deforestation Agriculture Industrial Waste (excluding land processes use change) Sources: World Resources Institute (2007); World Development Report (2008)
  9. 9. Share of Emissions by Sector in Sub-Saharan Africa Source: CAIT (2008), World Resources Institute
  10. 10. Potential for Mitigation through Agriculture  GHG emissions from agriculture are expected to increase because • food production will have to grow by 190% bw 2000-2050 to meet rising demand • food preferences are shifting towards commodities that contribute to greater GHG emissions  By 2030, the technical potential of mitigation through agriculture is expected to be 5,500-6,000 MtCO2e  By 2030, the economic potential of mitigation through agriculture is expected to be 1,500-4,300 MtCO2e (at carbon prices of US$100 per tCO2e) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  11. 11. Potential for Mitigation through Agriculture in Africa (17% of the global total) Economic Mitigation Potential by 2030 at 0-20$/ton CO2eq (MtCO2e/yr) Rest. Rest. Cropland Grazing Other organic degraded Total mgt. land mgt. practices soils land East Africa 28 27 25 13 15 109 Central 13 12 11 6 7 49 Africa North Africa 6 6 6 3 3 25 South Africa 6 5 5 3 3 22 West Africa 16 15 14 7 8 60 Total 69 (26%) 65 (25%) 61 (23%) 33 (12%) 37 (14%) 265 Source: Smith et al. (2008)
  12. 12. Africa’s Share in Carbon Markets is TINY Source: Capoor and Ambrosi (2008)
  13. 13. Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation
  14. 14. Synergies between Adaptation, Mitigation and Profitability  Agronomic Practices: Improved crop varieties, cover crops, green manure, crop rotations, and intercropping, reduced tillage  Nutrient Management: Mulching, improved fallowing, manure management, composting, and improved fertilizer use efficiency  Residue Management  Water Management (e.g. terracing and water harvesting)  Agroforestry  Restoration and Rehabilitation of Degraded Land  Livestock and Rangeland Management
  15. 15. Synergies and Tradeoffs between Mitigation and Food Security Integrated soil fertility management Improved seed Mitigation Potential Source: Adapted from FAO (2009) Biofuels Irrigation (low energy High Conservation tillage/ using..) residue management Conservation tillage/residue management Improved fallow Overgrazing GW pumping Soil nutrient mining Low Mechanized farming Bare fallow Low High Food Security Prospects
  16. 16. Profits are Higher for Mitigation Practices: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009)
  17. 17. Returns to Labor are Higher for Mitigation Practices: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009)
  18. 18. Mitigating Practices Support Long-term Crop Yield Sustainability: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009) Rice (yields of last 10 years minus yields of first 10 years, 30-year simulation period)
  19. 19. Mitigating Practices Support Long-term Crop Yield Sustainability: ex. Mali Source: Nkonya et al. (2009) Maize (yields of last 10 years minus yields of first 10 years, 30-year simulation period)
  20. 20. Conclusions
  21. 21. Potential for Agricultural Mitigation in SSA is Large  Agriculture can contribute to mitigation because: • It is cost competitive with mitigation options in other sectors • Potential is considerable: 17% of global total agricultural mitigation potential  Agricultural mitigation could provide US$5.3 billion (@ US$20/ton carbon) to smallholders in SSA (3-4 times the annual aid flows to agriculture) INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 21
  22. 22. Many Obstacles Prevent the Fulfillment of this Potential  But… agriculture is currently excluded from formal carbon markets  And.. even if agriculture is included, SSA faces huge challenges due to : • high transaction costs • Insecure and complex property rights • substantial need for capacity building INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE Page 22
  23. 23. Synergies between Adaptation and Mitigation are Large  Agriculture can mitigate emissions through adoption of agricultural technologies and management practices that can also help farmers adapt to climate change  Many synergies have been identified between agricultural adaptation, mitigation and income generation for SSA farmers  To maximize synergies and reduce tradeoffs, mitigation and adaptation strategies should be closely integrated INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  24. 24. The Way Forward  Continue to fund pilot studies on smallholder agricultural mitigation, started by WB Biocarbon Fund and IFAD  Encourage the inclusion of agriculture (and forestry) in the post-Kyoto Agreement with simple standards for measuring GHG offsets  Target voluntary markets that include agriculture  Invest in capacity building and development of institutional frameworks for project implementation and verification INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE

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