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Searchinger - Sustainable food wedges - Hunger for action - 2012-09-04

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‘Scenarios for Policy: Transforming Farming, Landscape and Food Systems for the 21st Century’ was a side event held at the Hunger for Action Conference: 2nd Global Conference on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change. This session, coordinated by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) considered future policy options for the major transformative changes needed in farming, landscapes and food systems to make climate-smart agriculture a reality.

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Searchinger - Sustainable food wedges - Hunger for action - 2012-09-04

  1. 1. Sustainable Food Wedges:A portfolio of solutions for sustainably feedinthe planetTim Searchinger, Technical Director, WRI Associate Research Scholar, Princeton University(tsearchi@princeton.edu) September 2012 Photo: Espen Faugstad
  2. 2. INPUT TOWorld Resources ReportCore collaborators: INRA, CIRADHistoric Collaborators: World Bank, UNDP,UNEP Photo: Espen Faugstad
  3. 3. AAgriculture-related emissions could be 15 gigatons in 2050Sources: Foodincreases fromBruinsma 2009(FAO);Various sourcesother
  4. 4. “Wedges” framing ILLUSTRATIVE MtCO2e / year from agriculture Business as usual Demand control - Reduce losses & waste? - Diet? - Population? More land efficient ProductionCO2 -Yield gains? - Intensify pasture? - Aquaculture? Reduce methane, nitrous oxide emissions 4-5 Ton CO2 target for agriculture and land use change
  5. 5. FAO Estimated Global Food Waste is 33% of Tons In 1000 tonnes but 23% of Calories400,000350,000300,000250,000200,000 Developed World150,000 Developing World100,000 50,000 0 Cereals Roots And Oilseeds and Fruits and Meat Fish and Milk Tubers Pulses Vegetables Seafood in trillions of kcals 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 Developed World 2,000 1,500 Developing World 1,000 500 0 Cereals Roots And Oilseeds and Fruits and Meat Fish and Seafood Milk Tubers Pulses Vegetables Source: WRI calculations based on food balance sheet data from FAOSTAT 2009 and waste PRELIMINARY percentages from Gustavsson et al. 2011.
  6. 6. But where it is wasted differs regionally Estimated waste of meat throughout the life cycle 20% 18% 16% 14% Percent wasted 12% 10% 8% Europe (incl. Russia) 6% Sub Saharan Africa 4% 2% 0% Agricultural Postharvest Processing & Distribution Consumption production handling & packaging storage Stage in food life cycleSource: Global Food Losses and Food Waste, FAO. 2011.
  7. 7. Gstavvson, FAO 2011
  8. 8. Purdue Cowpea Storage Projecthttps://ag.purdue.edu/ipia/pics/Pages/home.aspx
  9. 9. 4. Historically, with increased wealth typically comes ashift in diet toward more meatChanging consumption of meat in relation to GNI*, 1961-2007 *Gross National Income Source: FAOSTAT and World Bank in Foresight. 2011. “The Future of Food and Farming.” Government Office for Science, London.
  10. 10. FEED EFFICIENCY FOR DIFFERENT LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS Wirsenius et al., Ag Systems. 2010
  11. 11. FAO ESTIMATED PER PERSON LIVESTOCK CONSUMPTION GROWTH (Bruinsma 2009) Livestock kcal per Beef kcal per person/day person/dayRegion 2005/07 2050 Increase 2005/072 2050 increaseWorld 375 454 21% 39 49 26%US & Canada 892 1011 113 114Other OECD 508 624 56 66China 531 790 24 59India 158 291 6 11Sub-SaharanAfrica 106 140 26 34
  12. 12. Some Projections to Feed World by 2050Globiom FAO• 266 million additional • 120 million hectares hectares cropland increase in cropland in• 121 million hectares tropics grassland • 50 million hectare decrease• 343 million hectares decline in developed countries unmanaged forest (offset by 103 million hectares of • Effective increase of 93 plantations) million hectares through• 168 million hectare decline higher cropping intensity “other” natural vegetation
  13. 13. Can We Boost Yields Enough to Avoid Cropland Expansion?
  14. 14. “Guinea Savanna” is not generally low environmental cost reserve land.Carbonloss/yieldratio is highrelative toworldaverage 21tC/ton ofmaize yield Analysis by Thornton, Notenbaert in Searchinger et al, submitted PNAS
  15. 15. Feeding Ruminants Uses Enormous Quantities of Forage and Other Non-Crop Feeds 2030ReproducedfromWirsenius2010,AgriculturalSystems
  16. 16. FAO DataPredicted 2000-2010 suggestsPasture& Cropland Expansion pasture hasin Latin America been 2/3 NetWassenaar et al., Global Env. Change17:86-104 (2007) Ag Expansion
  17. 17. Results Analysis & slide by B. Strassburg, GAEA • Current productivity : 118 million Animal Units; • Potential sustainable carrying capacity: 367 mi Animal Units;  Current productivity only 32-34% of potential Current Productivity Potential Productivity
  18. 18. Do Higher Yields Spare Forests? v.Borlaug Angelsen & Kaimowitz Brazil
  19. 19. High yields in tropics will reduce cropland/ton of foodbut will help shift world crop production into the tropics
  20. 20. FAO 2011 Forest Remote Sensing Survey (Initial Results) (2011):2000-2005: 15.2 Mha/y gross forest loss offset by 8.8 Mha reforestation1990-2000: 14.2 Mha/y gross loss offset by 10.1 reforestation
  21. 21. Solving the Paradox?• Integrate ag efforts with REDD• Focus export ag on high-value,high- labor labor intense products – NOT cereals, oilseeds, beef• Help small farmers• Carefully plan road network
  22. 22. How much energy could ALL the world crops and timber produce?
  23. 23. Crop Yields Needed 2006-2020 to Provide Food and 10.3% of World Transport Fuel (E4Tech Scenario) With and Without Biofuels Without Land 6.0% use Change Compared To 1996-2006 Trend and FAPRI Projections 5.0% 2.6%Compound Annual Growth Rate in Yield 4.0% 3.0% 0.9% 3.8% 2.0% 0.8% 3.1% 1.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.0% -0.1% Cereals Cereals Cereals Oilseeds Oilseeds Oilseeds Sugar Sugar Sugar Palm Palm Palm Crops Crops Crops -1.0% 1996-2006 Trend Non Biofuel food demand Biofuel, adjusted for by products FAPRI 2006-2019 Projection
  24. 24. 24
  25. 25. Carbon Payback Times for Biofuels from Perennial Grasses in “Guinea Savanna” Searchinger et al. PNAS submitted (modeling by Tim Beringer, Potsdam Institute)
  26. 26. Feeding Sub-Saharan Africa in 2050: Population growth from 856 million in 2010 to 1.96 billion (medium estimate UN) – 165% calorie growth FAO) Current 2050 - Current 2050 - FAO projection consumption and &10% imports n (2830 % of Imports kcal)Cropland needed at 154 million 357 million 440 millioncurrent yields for domesticfood consumption(hectares)Cereal yield needed to 1.23 t/ha 2.81 t/ha 3.9t/haavoid new land clearing
  27. 27. Most of the World Has Lower Fertility FertilityLow infantmortalityAccess tofamilyplanningEducation, jobopportunitiesfor women World Bank data through http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/compare#country=bd:br:sv: pe:uz:vn
  28. 28. Sub-Saharan Africa Total Birth Rates Still 5.5< 2.12.2–3.13.2–4.1> 4.2n/aWith birth rate of 2.1 instead of 3 in 2050, can hold population to 1.6rather than 1.96 and 2100 to close to same Source: UN World Population Prospects, 2010 revisionIf SSA total fertility rate remains at 5.5, its population will reach 2.7billion by 2050 & 14.5 billion by 2100
  29. 29. Boosting Girls’ Lower SecondaryEducation in Sub-Saharan Africa is Key < 20 20–40 40–60 60-80 > 80 n/a Countries with TFR 2.1 have Source: Oxford Institute of Population Ageing 100% of girls in at least lower secondary education Countries with 2.2-3 have 60-80% girls in lower secondary education
  30. 30. Agroforestry is starting to take off in Africa Niger – 5 Million Hectares • Ethiopia (1,000,000 ha); Mali (400,000 - 500,000 ha); Burkina Faso (200,000 ha); Zambia and Malawi (280,000 households)Source: McGahuey, M. “Africa’s Regreening: Its Integral Role in Increasing Agricultural Productivity and StrengtheningResiliency”, presentation at WRI Symposium on Regreening, March 1, 2012.
  31. 31. The potential for expanding this approach is vast Source: Mahamane, L. (AFF). Farmer Managed Natural Regeneration in Niger. Presentation to the United Nations, February 2011. PRELIMINARY
  32. 32. An approach for maximizing dryland agricultural productivity + thenWater harvesting Agroforestry Micro-dosing Source: C. Reij, personal communication
  33. 33. IPCC 2007 MITIGATION REPORT WAS ALL ABOUT CARBON SEQUESTRATION
  34. 34. The Challenge of Soil Carbon Gains• No Till? – Depth • Baker et al. (2007); • Blanco-Canqui & Lal (2008) – Nitrous Oxide• Developing world – Alternative uses of residues – Mulches transfer carbon rather than add carbon but agroforestry . . .
  35. 35. Comparative Emissions from Dairy Cows Gerber et al., FAO (2010) Africa: 7.5 kg of greenhouse gases U.S.: 1.3 kg of gases per kilogram per kilogram of milk of milkAccessible improvements – cut emissionsper unit of milk by ½ to 2/3. High protein shrub Improved pasture Increased stover digestibilitySource: Thornton & Herrero 2010 PNAS
  36. 36. Trials of nitrogen fertilizer reductions in Shaanxiresulted in no loss of crop yield Fertilizer reduction • Wheat: 30% • Maize: 50% • Cucumbers under plastic: >60% Source: China-UK project, 2007-2010, Shaanxi Province, northwest China
  37. 37. Strategies for reducing impacts (e.g., GHG) frompaddy rice 1. Removal of rice straw 2. Use sandier soils 3. Potassium 4. Right varieties 5. Avoid flooding in off-season 6. Rotations 7. Mid-season draw downs 8. System of rice intensification (SRI)?
  38. 38. AQUACULTURE MUST PROVIDE ALL FUTURE FISH GROWTHWorld Fish ProductionMillion tons 160 140 120 Aquaculture (outside of China) Aquaculture (China) 100 Capture fisheries (food) 80 Capture fisheries (non-food uses) 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Note: Assumes all farmed fish were for food. Source: FAO. 2012. State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture, Food Balance Sheets, FishStatJ.
  39. 39. The aquaculture industry is becoming more efficient Fish-in-fish-out ratios for major aquaculture species groups, 1995-2020 Salmon Trout Eel Marine fish ShrimpFreshwater crustaceans 1995 Tilapia 2006 2020 predicted Catfish Milkfish Non-filter-feeding carpTotal major fed species Total all aquaculture 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Source: Tacon and Metian 2008. PRELIMINARY
  40. 40. Feed Efficiency of Aquaculture is High (like chicken) % of all protein Kcal Protein Species group production efficiency efficiencyFed aquaculture 76.57%Catfish 6.58% Channel catfish 0.94% 31.43% 18.56% Pangasius catfish 2.86% 26.38% 21.18%Carps (fed) 37.43% 33.60% 17.37%Eels 1.15% 39.43% 18.44%Salmonids 5.15% Atlantic salmon 3.05% 45.58% 35.59% Rainbow trout 1.56% 36.56% 32.37%Shrimps and Prawns 8.89% Giant tiger prawn 1.44% 32.06% 20.22% Whiteleg shrimp 4.96% 31.37% 22.35%Tilapias 7.47% 21.17% 16.06%Other fed finfish 8.58% Milkfish 1.73% 43.69% 20.11%Other aquatic animals 1.30%Unfed aquaculture 23.43%Mollusks 6.41% N/A N/ACarps (filter-feeding) 14.31% N/A N/AOther unfed freshwater fish 2.71% PRELIMINARYSources : WRI calculations from data provided by World Fish Center
  41. 41. Example of Aquaculture Growth Scenario to 2050 World Fish Production Aquaculture Million tons Capture fisheries 250 200 150 100 50 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Total aquaculture Wild fish converted production (Mt) to feed (Mt) 2008 53 16.5 2020 (proj.) 80 14.4 2050 (proj.) 140 25.2Source: FAO FishStatJ. 2012, author’s calculationsAssumptions to 2050: 1) capture fisheries production constant at 90 Mt/year, 2) aquaculture production grows at 2Mt/year, 3) same aquaculture species mix as 2010, 4) fish-in-fish-out ratios predicted for 2020 (Tacon and Metian2008) remain unchanged to 2050.
  42. 42. INCREASED LAND USE EFFICIENCY IMPORTANTInland ponds 11.5 million hectaresDirect land use for pond aquaculture: 0.66 tonnes/hatotal land use for chicken & pork ~ 1 tonne/hectare Our calculatio ns from Hall et a. (World Fish Center) 2011 data
  43. 43. Sum Up• Diet• Losses & waste• Sub-Saharan Africa• Pasture intensification & livestock feeding efficiency• Couple with natural area protection (not just forests but savannahs & wetlands)• Bioenergy• Aquaculture

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