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Impact of the Russian Military Invasion on Ukraine’s Agriculture and Trade

Antonina Broyaka POLICY SEMINAR Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War 2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT

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IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY INVASION
ON UKRAINE'S AGRICULTURE AND TRADE
Antonina Broyaka
Extension Associate of Agricultural Economics Department,
Kansas State University
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor from Ukraine
UKRAINE'S PLACE IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN 2021
% - a share in the global structure of
agricultural exports
Source: based on data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine
5.1 mill tonnes
24.7 mill tonnes
4.2 mill tonnes
5.7 mill tonnes
20.1 mill tonnes
1.1 mill tonnes
2.7 mill tonnes
168.4 thous tonnes
57.8 thous tonnes 35.8 thous tonnes
Sunflower oil Sunflower meal Millet
Corn Barley Rapeseed
Wheat Honey Walnuts
Soybeans
Wheat;
5.6; 39%
Sunflower;
2.5; 17%
Corn; 1.7;
12%
Barley;
1.2; 8%
Fruits &
berries;
0.4; 3%
Other
crops ; 3.0;
21%
Crop losses due to lower production,
$ billion
Agricultural
machinery;
4.7; 53%
Destroyed and
stolen inputs; 0.1;
1%
Destroyed
and stolen
outputs; 1.9;
22%
Grain
storage
facilities ;
1.3; 15%
Perennial
crops; 0.5; 6%
Livestock,
bees, fisheries
& aquaculture;
0.3; 3%
DIRECT DAMAGE FROM THE WAR TO
UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion
$14.3 billion
Source: based on data of the Kyiv School of Economics
INDIRECT LOSSES FROM THE WAR TO UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion
$8.9 billion
Milk; 0.8;
48%
Eggs;
0.34; 20%
Pigs;
0.15; 9%
Cattle;
0.06; 4%
Poultry;
0.29; 17%
Other;
0.03; 2%
Livestock losses due to lower
production, $ billion
$1.7 billion
Other losses: $15.6 billion
- due to decrease in the prices for export-oriented commodities - $14.5 billion;
- due to increase in the prices for fertilizers - $377.1 million;
- due to increase in the prices for fuel - $467.4 million;
- recultivation of the land affected by battles and missiles - $183.9 million;
- fisheries and aquaculture losses - $53.8 million
53.4 MT 17.5 MT
CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE FOR THE YEAR OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE (2022 vs. 2021)
PRODUCTION
9.1 MT 3.0 MT
7.7 MT 11.6 bln pieces
EXPORT
Grain Oil seeds
Sugar beets Meat, all types
Milk Eggs
Grain
Oil seeds
Vegetable oil
Source: based on data of Ministry of
Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, State
Customs Service of Ukraine and UCAB
THE PRICE GAP BETWEEN THE
WORLD AND DOMESTIC PRICES
(at the end of the year)
Wheat
Corn
38.4 MT
4.6 MT
7.9 MT
2.1times
2021
2022
4.6 times
2021
2022
3.4 times
2020/2021
MY
Total
2021/2022
MY
Total
2022/2023 MY 2023/2024 MY
Total
incl.
Oct.
2022
Total, as
for
October
23, 2023
incl.
Oct.
2023
Grain and
legumes,
total
43,939 48,508 49,079 3,159 8,333 1,580
• wheat 16,413 18,741 16,900 1,450 4,158 824
• barley 4,210 5,752 2,713 243 663 41
• rye 15.8 161.9 18.0 1.9 0.9 0.1
• corn 22,596 23,535 29,299 1,455 3,391 706
Wheat flour 123.7 69.4 148.1 8.1 39.4 4.7
Other flour 1.1 1.5 6.2 0.2 1.3 0.3
Total flour 124.8 70.9 154.3 8.3 40.7 5.0
Total export
(grain+flour)
44,105 48,579 49,233 3,167 8,374 1,585
EXPORT OF GRAIN AND LEGUMES FROM UKRAINE
with products of their processing (MY – Marketing year July-June),
thousand metric tonnes
Source: based on data of State Customs Service of Ukraine
Dynamics of main agricultural products export
from Ukraine in 2023, thousand tonnes
4,215
793
420
430
5,198
557
436
414
5,710
683
556
455
3,914
217
564
262
3,502
320
484
445
3,783
242
514
435
2,275
330
549
321
2,313
755
549
367
2,078
881
480
415
Cereals Oil crops Vegetable oils Oilseed cake
January February March April May June July August September
EXPORT SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE DURING THE WAR TIME BY TYPES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES,
March 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023, thousand metric tonnes
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Corn Wheat Rapeseed Sun oil Barley Oil-cake Soybeans Sunflower seeds Soybean oil
395,726
3,379,755
3,813,054
3,366,032
4,948,517
5,311,341
7,300,018
20,408,637
34,841,786
Soybean oil
Barley
Soybeans
Sunflower seeds
Rapeseed
Oil-cake
Sunflower oil
Wheat
Corn
Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine
Total
83,764,865
metric tonnes
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept
Millions
Ferry 1,141,456
Ports 59,708,118
Railway 16,045,506
Vehicle 6,869,784
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXPORT SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE IN TRANSPORTATION BREAKDOWN,
March 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023, metrics tonnes (grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils)
Total 83,764,865 tonnes :
Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine
1,492
3,431
3,490
2,255
3,469
3,140
3,412
2,509
1,185 1,176 206 49
1,214 1,074
1,031 1,110 1,242
1,038 795
1,108
1,700 1,441
1,791
2,102
1,708
2,079
1,904
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
“Grain initiative” ports (Odessa,
Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk)
Danube ports
EXPORT OF GRAINS AND OILSEEDS FROM UKRAINIAN PORTS (wheat, corn, barley, sunflower seeds, rapeseeds, soybeans), thousand tonnes
Price dynamics of milling wheat (offer, FOB), USD/t
IMPACT OF THE WAR ON GRAIN PRICES
Price dynamics of corn (offer, FOB), USD/t
Source: APK-inform
Price dynamics of feed wheat (offer, FOB), USD/t Price dynamics of feed barley (offer, FOB), USD/t
GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY INDEX 2022
130.4%
133.6%
128.2%
141.2%
150.8%
121.5%
126.2%
173.5%
106.4%
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Octr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept
%
Consumer price index Food (overall average) Bread
Meat Fish Milk
Eggs Fruit Vegetables
Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine
FOOD INFLATION IN UKRAINE
(deviation of the Consumer Price Index on a cumulative basis
to the previous month, Jan. 2022 - Sept. 2023)
Ukraine declined from rank 58 in 2021 to 71 in 2022
Source: Economist Impact
Crops
Harvested, thousand
hectares
2023*
Harvested
to forecast
2023*, %
Harvested
2023*,
thousand
metric
tonnes
Average yields, metric
tonnes per hectare
Change in yields
per hectare,%
2021 2022
Forecast,
thousand
hectares
Harvested,
thousand
hectares
2021 2022 2023*
2023* to
2021
2023* to
2022
Grain and legumes
total, including:
15,299.2 10,969.7 10,569.4 7,944.1 75.2 % 38,266.5 5.50 4.88 4.82 -12.4 % -1.2 %
•wheat 7,073.0 4,979.4 4,646.4 4,694.5 101.1 % 22,359.2 4.64 4.05 4.76 +2.6 % +17.5%
•barley 2,467.7 1,666.5 1,492.9 1,504.5 100.8 % 5,863.0 3.92 3.47 3.90 -0.5 % +12.4%
•corn 5,356.0 4,045.0 4,055.2 1,376.7 33.9 % 9,281.6 8.01 6.68 6.74 -15.9 % +0.9 %
•peas 240.4 118.1 150.0 154.4 102.9 % 396.8 2.43 2.28 2.57 +5.8 % +12.7%
•buckwheat 84.2 115.9 141.5 136.6 96.5 % 203.6 1.30 1.37 1.49 +14.6% +8.8 %
•millet 77.9 44.7 83.4 77.4 92.8 % 162.4 2.52 2.28 2.10 -16.7% -7.9 %
Soybeans 1,279.5 1,537.0 1,811.0 1,641.4 90.6 % 4,240.9 2.68 2.43 2.58 -3.7 % +6.2 %
Rapeseed 1,013.9 1,134.8 1,425.6 1,396.0 97.9 % 4,005.4 2.95 2.86 2.87 -2.7 % +0.3 %
Sunflower 6,482.4 4,825.5 5,059.7 4,357.2 86.1 % 10,210.6 2.52 2.18 2.34 -7.1 % +7.3 %
HARVESTING OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS IN UKRAINE,
as of October 20, 2023
Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Note: includes data from territories under Ukrainian control as of the reporting date
42.1
33.0
10.1
3.5 2.9
16.9
27.3
20.2
5.8 3.7 3.9
11.1
28.1
22.4
5.9 4.8 4.1
13.9
28.0
22.5
5.7 4.8 4.3
14.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans Rapeseeds Sunflower seeds
2021 2022 2023* Ukrainian Ministry 2023* USDA
Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and USDA, as of October 12, 2023
FORECAST OF HARVEST OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS IN UKRAINE IN 2023, million metric tonnes
Total : up to 80.5 million tonnes (vs. 73.8 million tonnes in 2022)
• Grain and legumes – 57 million tonnes
• Oil crops – 23 million tonnes
23.5
18.7
5.8
1.1 2.7 1.1
29.5
16.8
2.7 3.3 3.4 2.4
22.0
16.0
3.0 3.3 4.0
0.5
19.5
11.0
1.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans Rapeseeds Sunflower seeds
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24* Ukrainian Ministry 2023/24* USDA
Total : up to 49 million tonnes (vs. 58 million tonnes in 2022/23)
FORECAST OF EXPORT POTENTIAL OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS FROM UKRAINE IN 2023/24 MY, million tonnes
SOWN AREA OF WINTER CROPS IN UKRAINE, thousand hectares
Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine and Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
Crops 2020 2021 2022
2022 to
2021, %
Sown areas in 2023 for the 2024 harvest
Forecast
2023
Planted as of October 17,
2023
Forecast of 2023 to
planted in
thousand
hectares
% to forecast 2022, % 2021, %
Winter crops
total,
including:
8,973.5 9,029.4 5,449.4 -39.6 % 6,339.9 4,467.2 70.5 % + 16.3 % -29.8 %
•winter wheat 6,714.4 6,538.4 3,758.8 -42.5 % 4,355.3 3,017.8 69.3 % + 15.9 % -33.4 %
•winter barley 1,080.4 969.0 612.5 -36.8 % 692.1 260.1 37.6 % + 13.0 % -28.6 %
•winter rye 166.8 108.5 79.2 -27.0 % 80.9 65.2 80.6 % + 2.1 % -25.4 %
•winter
rapeseeds
1,011.9 1,413.5 998.9 -29.3 % 1,211.6 1,124.2 92.8 % + 21.3% -14.3 %
Note: includes data from territories under Ukrainian control as of the reporting date
2030 UKRAINE CEREALS AND OILSEEDS MARKETS PROJECTIONS: 2023 – END OF THE WAR ASSUMPTION
Acreage of cereals and oilseeds, thousand hectares
Production of cereals and oilseeds, thousand tonnes
Source: Kyiv School of Economics
Questions?
Thank you!

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Impact of the Russian Military Invasion on Ukraine’s Agriculture and Trade

  • 1. IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY INVASION ON UKRAINE'S AGRICULTURE AND TRADE Antonina Broyaka Extension Associate of Agricultural Economics Department, Kansas State University PhD in Economics, Associate Professor from Ukraine
  • 2. UKRAINE'S PLACE IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN 2021 % - a share in the global structure of agricultural exports Source: based on data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine 5.1 mill tonnes 24.7 mill tonnes 4.2 mill tonnes 5.7 mill tonnes 20.1 mill tonnes 1.1 mill tonnes 2.7 mill tonnes 168.4 thous tonnes 57.8 thous tonnes 35.8 thous tonnes Sunflower oil Sunflower meal Millet Corn Barley Rapeseed Wheat Honey Walnuts Soybeans
  • 3. Wheat; 5.6; 39% Sunflower; 2.5; 17% Corn; 1.7; 12% Barley; 1.2; 8% Fruits & berries; 0.4; 3% Other crops ; 3.0; 21% Crop losses due to lower production, $ billion Agricultural machinery; 4.7; 53% Destroyed and stolen inputs; 0.1; 1% Destroyed and stolen outputs; 1.9; 22% Grain storage facilities ; 1.3; 15% Perennial crops; 0.5; 6% Livestock, bees, fisheries & aquaculture; 0.3; 3% DIRECT DAMAGE FROM THE WAR TO UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion $14.3 billion Source: based on data of the Kyiv School of Economics INDIRECT LOSSES FROM THE WAR TO UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion $8.9 billion Milk; 0.8; 48% Eggs; 0.34; 20% Pigs; 0.15; 9% Cattle; 0.06; 4% Poultry; 0.29; 17% Other; 0.03; 2% Livestock losses due to lower production, $ billion $1.7 billion Other losses: $15.6 billion - due to decrease in the prices for export-oriented commodities - $14.5 billion; - due to increase in the prices for fertilizers - $377.1 million; - due to increase in the prices for fuel - $467.4 million; - recultivation of the land affected by battles and missiles - $183.9 million; - fisheries and aquaculture losses - $53.8 million
  • 4. 53.4 MT 17.5 MT CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE FOR THE YEAR OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE (2022 vs. 2021) PRODUCTION 9.1 MT 3.0 MT 7.7 MT 11.6 bln pieces EXPORT Grain Oil seeds Sugar beets Meat, all types Milk Eggs Grain Oil seeds Vegetable oil Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, State Customs Service of Ukraine and UCAB THE PRICE GAP BETWEEN THE WORLD AND DOMESTIC PRICES (at the end of the year) Wheat Corn 38.4 MT 4.6 MT 7.9 MT 2.1times 2021 2022 4.6 times 2021 2022 3.4 times
  • 5. 2020/2021 MY Total 2021/2022 MY Total 2022/2023 MY 2023/2024 MY Total incl. Oct. 2022 Total, as for October 23, 2023 incl. Oct. 2023 Grain and legumes, total 43,939 48,508 49,079 3,159 8,333 1,580 • wheat 16,413 18,741 16,900 1,450 4,158 824 • barley 4,210 5,752 2,713 243 663 41 • rye 15.8 161.9 18.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 • corn 22,596 23,535 29,299 1,455 3,391 706 Wheat flour 123.7 69.4 148.1 8.1 39.4 4.7 Other flour 1.1 1.5 6.2 0.2 1.3 0.3 Total flour 124.8 70.9 154.3 8.3 40.7 5.0 Total export (grain+flour) 44,105 48,579 49,233 3,167 8,374 1,585 EXPORT OF GRAIN AND LEGUMES FROM UKRAINE with products of their processing (MY – Marketing year July-June), thousand metric tonnes Source: based on data of State Customs Service of Ukraine Dynamics of main agricultural products export from Ukraine in 2023, thousand tonnes 4,215 793 420 430 5,198 557 436 414 5,710 683 556 455 3,914 217 564 262 3,502 320 484 445 3,783 242 514 435 2,275 330 549 321 2,313 755 549 367 2,078 881 480 415 Cereals Oil crops Vegetable oils Oilseed cake January February March April May June July August September
  • 6. EXPORT SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE DURING THE WAR TIME BY TYPES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, March 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023, thousand metric tonnes 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Corn Wheat Rapeseed Sun oil Barley Oil-cake Soybeans Sunflower seeds Soybean oil 395,726 3,379,755 3,813,054 3,366,032 4,948,517 5,311,341 7,300,018 20,408,637 34,841,786 Soybean oil Barley Soybeans Sunflower seeds Rapeseed Oil-cake Sunflower oil Wheat Corn Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine Total 83,764,865 metric tonnes
  • 7. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Millions Ferry 1,141,456 Ports 59,708,118 Railway 16,045,506 Vehicle 6,869,784 AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXPORT SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE IN TRANSPORTATION BREAKDOWN, March 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023, metrics tonnes (grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils) Total 83,764,865 tonnes : Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine 1,492 3,431 3,490 2,255 3,469 3,140 3,412 2,509 1,185 1,176 206 49 1,214 1,074 1,031 1,110 1,242 1,038 795 1,108 1,700 1,441 1,791 2,102 1,708 2,079 1,904 July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept “Grain initiative” ports (Odessa, Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk) Danube ports EXPORT OF GRAINS AND OILSEEDS FROM UKRAINIAN PORTS (wheat, corn, barley, sunflower seeds, rapeseeds, soybeans), thousand tonnes
  • 8. Price dynamics of milling wheat (offer, FOB), USD/t IMPACT OF THE WAR ON GRAIN PRICES Price dynamics of corn (offer, FOB), USD/t Source: APK-inform Price dynamics of feed wheat (offer, FOB), USD/t Price dynamics of feed barley (offer, FOB), USD/t
  • 9. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY INDEX 2022 130.4% 133.6% 128.2% 141.2% 150.8% 121.5% 126.2% 173.5% 106.4% 50 100 150 200 250 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Octr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept % Consumer price index Food (overall average) Bread Meat Fish Milk Eggs Fruit Vegetables Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine FOOD INFLATION IN UKRAINE (deviation of the Consumer Price Index on a cumulative basis to the previous month, Jan. 2022 - Sept. 2023) Ukraine declined from rank 58 in 2021 to 71 in 2022 Source: Economist Impact
  • 10. Crops Harvested, thousand hectares 2023* Harvested to forecast 2023*, % Harvested 2023*, thousand metric tonnes Average yields, metric tonnes per hectare Change in yields per hectare,% 2021 2022 Forecast, thousand hectares Harvested, thousand hectares 2021 2022 2023* 2023* to 2021 2023* to 2022 Grain and legumes total, including: 15,299.2 10,969.7 10,569.4 7,944.1 75.2 % 38,266.5 5.50 4.88 4.82 -12.4 % -1.2 % •wheat 7,073.0 4,979.4 4,646.4 4,694.5 101.1 % 22,359.2 4.64 4.05 4.76 +2.6 % +17.5% •barley 2,467.7 1,666.5 1,492.9 1,504.5 100.8 % 5,863.0 3.92 3.47 3.90 -0.5 % +12.4% •corn 5,356.0 4,045.0 4,055.2 1,376.7 33.9 % 9,281.6 8.01 6.68 6.74 -15.9 % +0.9 % •peas 240.4 118.1 150.0 154.4 102.9 % 396.8 2.43 2.28 2.57 +5.8 % +12.7% •buckwheat 84.2 115.9 141.5 136.6 96.5 % 203.6 1.30 1.37 1.49 +14.6% +8.8 % •millet 77.9 44.7 83.4 77.4 92.8 % 162.4 2.52 2.28 2.10 -16.7% -7.9 % Soybeans 1,279.5 1,537.0 1,811.0 1,641.4 90.6 % 4,240.9 2.68 2.43 2.58 -3.7 % +6.2 % Rapeseed 1,013.9 1,134.8 1,425.6 1,396.0 97.9 % 4,005.4 2.95 2.86 2.87 -2.7 % +0.3 % Sunflower 6,482.4 4,825.5 5,059.7 4,357.2 86.1 % 10,210.6 2.52 2.18 2.34 -7.1 % +7.3 % HARVESTING OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS IN UKRAINE, as of October 20, 2023 Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine Note: includes data from territories under Ukrainian control as of the reporting date
  • 11. 42.1 33.0 10.1 3.5 2.9 16.9 27.3 20.2 5.8 3.7 3.9 11.1 28.1 22.4 5.9 4.8 4.1 13.9 28.0 22.5 5.7 4.8 4.3 14.0 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans Rapeseeds Sunflower seeds 2021 2022 2023* Ukrainian Ministry 2023* USDA Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and USDA, as of October 12, 2023 FORECAST OF HARVEST OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS IN UKRAINE IN 2023, million metric tonnes Total : up to 80.5 million tonnes (vs. 73.8 million tonnes in 2022) • Grain and legumes – 57 million tonnes • Oil crops – 23 million tonnes 23.5 18.7 5.8 1.1 2.7 1.1 29.5 16.8 2.7 3.3 3.4 2.4 22.0 16.0 3.0 3.3 4.0 0.5 19.5 11.0 1.8 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans Rapeseeds Sunflower seeds 2021/22 2022/23 2023/24* Ukrainian Ministry 2023/24* USDA Total : up to 49 million tonnes (vs. 58 million tonnes in 2022/23) FORECAST OF EXPORT POTENTIAL OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS FROM UKRAINE IN 2023/24 MY, million tonnes
  • 12. SOWN AREA OF WINTER CROPS IN UKRAINE, thousand hectares Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine and Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine Crops 2020 2021 2022 2022 to 2021, % Sown areas in 2023 for the 2024 harvest Forecast 2023 Planted as of October 17, 2023 Forecast of 2023 to planted in thousand hectares % to forecast 2022, % 2021, % Winter crops total, including: 8,973.5 9,029.4 5,449.4 -39.6 % 6,339.9 4,467.2 70.5 % + 16.3 % -29.8 % •winter wheat 6,714.4 6,538.4 3,758.8 -42.5 % 4,355.3 3,017.8 69.3 % + 15.9 % -33.4 % •winter barley 1,080.4 969.0 612.5 -36.8 % 692.1 260.1 37.6 % + 13.0 % -28.6 % •winter rye 166.8 108.5 79.2 -27.0 % 80.9 65.2 80.6 % + 2.1 % -25.4 % •winter rapeseeds 1,011.9 1,413.5 998.9 -29.3 % 1,211.6 1,124.2 92.8 % + 21.3% -14.3 % Note: includes data from territories under Ukrainian control as of the reporting date
  • 13. 2030 UKRAINE CEREALS AND OILSEEDS MARKETS PROJECTIONS: 2023 – END OF THE WAR ASSUMPTION Acreage of cereals and oilseeds, thousand hectares Production of cereals and oilseeds, thousand tonnes Source: Kyiv School of Economics