Presentation by Cynthia Rosenzweig (NASA GISS) and John Antle (Oregon State Univ.) on April 11, 2016 in Washington, DC

1. India USA Kenya Sri Lanka
Cynthia Rosenzweig John Antle
NASA GISS Oregon State University
Climate Impact on Food and Nutrition Systems: Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments
IFPRI | Washington, DC | April 11, 2016
The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments of
Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

2. Paris Agreement COP21
“Recognizing the
fundamental priority
of safeguarding food
security and ending
hunger, and the
particular
vulnerabilities of food
production systems
to the adverse impacts
of climate change”

3. AgMIP Mission
3
Near Arusha, Tanzania
Provide effective science-based agricultural
decision-making models and assessments of climate
variability and change and sustainable farming systems to
achieve local-to-global food security

4. 4
Worldwide Science Community
2nd Global Oct 20111st Global Oct 2010
Sub-Saharan Africa #3 South Asia #3
3rd Global Oct 2012
4th Global Oct 2013 5th Global Feb 2015

5. Partnerships
5Some of the many partners and donor institutions involved in AgMIP

6. Phase 2 (2015-2020) Science Approach
6
Rosenzweig et al., 2013 AgForMet
Multi-model assessments
Track 1: Develop/Test NextGen Agricultural Systems Models
Track 2: Conduct Multi-Model Assessments for Sustainable
Farming Systems and Climate-Responsive Agriculture
AgMIP Sentinel Sites
Platinum
Gold
Silver
Climate Responsive

7. 3 Focus Areas
7

8. 3 Focus Areas
8

9. Coordinated Global and
Regional Assessments
9
and livestock

10. Ensemble of
models predicted
yields accurately
True under poorly
and well calibrated
conditions
Most individual
models did not
predict all sites
well across varying
environments
1
0
Asseng et al. 2013
Nature Climate Change
Ensembles better than individual models
27 wheat models

11. 11
• Farming systems
• Transdisciplinary:
climate/biophysical/
socio-economic
• Multi-scale: field, farm,
region, global data and
models
• Multiple climate and
crop models
• Distributional results:
impacts on poverty
AgMIP Regional Integrated
Assessment – 5 Attributes
Antle et al., 2015

12. ─ Lower latitudes are more vulnerable to climate change
─ [CO2] effects key to understanding future impacts and uncertainty
─ Models that incorporate realistic nitrogen see significantly less
gains from [CO2] effects at present-day fertilizer levels 1
2
Global Agricultural Productivity
End-of-century (2070-
2099) climate impact.
Median of 7 GGCMs
and 5 GCMs. Hatched
areas indicate model
agreement in sign
Rosenzweig et al., 2014
PNAS 111(9): 3268-3273

13. Uncertainty Cascade
13
Effects of climate change on agricultural prices
(S3-S6 results in 2050 relative to results without climate change in 2050)
AgMIP Global
Economic s Model
Intercomparison
10 Global Economics
Models, 2 GCMs,
2 crop models
Von Lampe et al.,
Agricultural
Economics,
2013
Climate change is projected to exert upward pressure on agricultural
prices, but with large uncertainty that is being connected to model
approaches
S3 S4 S5 S6
GCMs
GGCMs
Model uncertainty
GEM > GGCM > GCM

14. CGRA Core Risk and
Resilience Framing
14

15. • Stakeholders: yes the climate is changing, yes
there will be impacts – what should we do?
– Must evaluate mitigation and adaptation options for
current or likely future systems
• Mitigation: climate justice and impacts on the
most vulnerable
• Resilient, Sustainable Adaptation
– Reduce vulnerability to long-term change and short-
term weather variability & extremes
– Economically, environmentally & socially sustainable
Regional Assessment:
Stakeholder Perspective
15

16. AgMIP Regional Assessments
16

17. Tranformative solutions: Nkayi, Zimbabwe
17
AgMIP phase 1: Incremental change
insufficient to lift people out of poverty
AgMIP phase 2: Transformative change
more drastic solutions for improving farming systems

18. Vulnerability, global-regional
linkages, and uncertainty
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30
Vulnerability(%householdsvulnerabletoloss)
Average Economic Impact (% of farm income)
Q1- Zimbabwe Q2- Zimbabwe Q1-Senegal Q2 -Senegal
Zimbabwe:
productivity &
prices from
stakeholders &
local research
team
Senegal:
productivity &
prices from global
model and
scenario

19. Communication
19

20. • Coordinated global and regional assessments with
consistent protocols and scenarios
• Mitigation and resilient adaptation of major agricultural
systems
– extreme weather events and related economic shocks (food
prices) as well as long-term changes
• Improved food security and nutrition indicators
– beyond aggregate calorie availability
– access, utilization and stability of key nutrients at regional and
household levels
CGRA Outcomes
20

21. 21
For protocols, up-to-date events and news,
and to join AgMIP listserve – www.agmip.org