Antonina Broyaka POLICY SEMINAR Food System Repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine War 2023 Borlaug Dialogue Breakout session Co-organized by IFPRI and CGIAR OCT 26, 2023 - 1:10 TO 2:10PM EDT

1. IMPACT OF THE RUSSIAN MILITARY INVASION
ON UKRAINE'S AGRICULTURE AND TRADE
Antonina Broyaka
Extension Associate of Agricultural Economics Department,
Kansas State University
PhD in Economics, Associate Professor from Ukraine

2. UKRAINE'S PLACE IN GLOBAL AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN 2021
% - a share in the global structure of
agricultural exports
Source: based on data of the State Customs Service of Ukraine
5.1 mill tonnes
24.7 mill tonnes
4.2 mill tonnes
5.7 mill tonnes
20.1 mill tonnes
1.1 mill tonnes
2.7 mill tonnes
168.4 thous tonnes
57.8 thous tonnes 35.8 thous tonnes
Sunflower oil Sunflower meal Millet
Corn Barley Rapeseed
Wheat Honey Walnuts
Soybeans

3. Wheat;
5.6; 39%
Sunflower;
2.5; 17%
Corn; 1.7;
12%
Barley;
1.2; 8%
Fruits &
berries;
0.4; 3%
Other
crops ; 3.0;
21%
Crop losses due to lower production,
$ billion
Agricultural
machinery;
4.7; 53%
Destroyed and
stolen inputs; 0.1;
1%
Destroyed
and stolen
outputs; 1.9;
22%
Grain
storage
facilities ;
1.3; 15%
Perennial
crops; 0.5; 6%
Livestock,
bees, fisheries
& aquaculture;
0.3; 3%
DIRECT DAMAGE FROM THE WAR TO
UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion
$14.3 billion
Source: based on data of the Kyiv School of Economics
INDIRECT LOSSES FROM THE WAR TO UKRAINIAN AGRICULTURE, $ billion
$8.9 billion
Milk; 0.8;
48%
Eggs;
0.34; 20%
Pigs;
0.15; 9%
Cattle;
0.06; 4%
Poultry;
0.29; 17%
Other;
0.03; 2%
Livestock losses due to lower
production, $ billion
$1.7 billion
Other losses: $15.6 billion
- due to decrease in the prices for export-oriented commodities - $14.5 billion;
- due to increase in the prices for fertilizers - $377.1 million;
- due to increase in the prices for fuel - $467.4 million;
- recultivation of the land affected by battles and missiles - $183.9 million;
- fisheries and aquaculture losses - $53.8 million

4. 53.4 MT 17.5 MT
CHANGES IN AGRICULTURE FOR THE YEAR OF THE WAR IN UKRAINE (2022 vs. 2021)
PRODUCTION
9.1 MT 3.0 MT
7.7 MT 11.6 bln pieces
EXPORT
Grain Oil seeds
Sugar beets Meat, all types
Milk Eggs
Grain
Oil seeds
Vegetable oil
Source: based on data of Ministry of
Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine, State
Customs Service of Ukraine and UCAB
THE PRICE GAP BETWEEN THE
WORLD AND DOMESTIC PRICES
(at the end of the year)
Wheat
Corn
38.4 MT
4.6 MT
7.9 MT
2.1times
2021
2022
4.6 times
2021
2022
3.4 times

5. 2020/2021
MY
Total
2021/2022
MY
Total
2022/2023 MY 2023/2024 MY
Total
incl.
Oct.
2022
Total, as
for
October
23, 2023
incl.
Oct.
2023
Grain and
legumes,
total
43,939 48,508 49,079 3,159 8,333 1,580
• wheat 16,413 18,741 16,900 1,450 4,158 824
• barley 4,210 5,752 2,713 243 663 41
• rye 15.8 161.9 18.0 1.9 0.9 0.1
• corn 22,596 23,535 29,299 1,455 3,391 706
Wheat flour 123.7 69.4 148.1 8.1 39.4 4.7
Other flour 1.1 1.5 6.2 0.2 1.3 0.3
Total flour 124.8 70.9 154.3 8.3 40.7 5.0
Total export
(grain+flour)
44,105 48,579 49,233 3,167 8,374 1,585
EXPORT OF GRAIN AND LEGUMES FROM UKRAINE
with products of their processing (MY – Marketing year July-June),
thousand metric tonnes
Source: based on data of State Customs Service of Ukraine
Dynamics of main agricultural products export
from Ukraine in 2023, thousand tonnes
4,215
793
420
430
5,198
557
436
414
5,710
683
556
455
3,914
217
564
262
3,502
320
484
445
3,783
242
514
435
2,275
330
549
321
2,313
755
549
367
2,078
881
480
415
Cereals Oil crops Vegetable oils Oilseed cake
January February March April May June July August September

6. EXPORT SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE DURING THE WAR TIME BY TYPES OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES,
March 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023, thousand metric tonnes
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Corn Wheat Rapeseed Sun oil Barley Oil-cake Soybeans Sunflower seeds Soybean oil
395,726
3,379,755
3,813,054
3,366,032
4,948,517
5,311,341
7,300,018
20,408,637
34,841,786
Soybean oil
Barley
Soybeans
Sunflower seeds
Rapeseed
Oil-cake
Sunflower oil
Wheat
Corn
Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine
Total
83,764,865
metric tonnes

7. 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept
Millions
Ferry 1,141,456
Ports 59,708,118
Railway 16,045,506
Vehicle 6,869,784
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY EXPORT SHIPMENTS FROM UKRAINE IN TRANSPORTATION BREAKDOWN,
March 1, 2022 – September 30, 2023, metrics tonnes (grains, oilseeds and vegetable oils)
Total 83,764,865 tonnes :
Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and Ministry of Infrastructure of Ukraine
1,492
3,431
3,490
2,255
3,469
3,140
3,412
2,509
1,185 1,176 206 49
1,214 1,074
1,031 1,110 1,242
1,038 795
1,108
1,700 1,441
1,791
2,102
1,708
2,079
1,904
July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept
“Grain initiative” ports (Odessa,
Pivdennyi, Chornomorsk)
Danube ports
EXPORT OF GRAINS AND OILSEEDS FROM UKRAINIAN PORTS (wheat, corn, barley, sunflower seeds, rapeseeds, soybeans), thousand tonnes

8. Price dynamics of milling wheat (offer, FOB), USD/t
IMPACT OF THE WAR ON GRAIN PRICES
Price dynamics of corn (offer, FOB), USD/t
Source: APK-inform
Price dynamics of feed wheat (offer, FOB), USD/t Price dynamics of feed barley (offer, FOB), USD/t

9. GLOBAL FOOD SECURITY INDEX 2022
130.4%
133.6%
128.2%
141.2%
150.8%
121.5%
126.2%
173.5%
106.4%
50
100
150
200
250
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Octr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept
%
Consumer price index Food (overall average) Bread
Meat Fish Milk
Eggs Fruit Vegetables
Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine
FOOD INFLATION IN UKRAINE
(deviation of the Consumer Price Index on a cumulative basis
to the previous month, Jan. 2022 - Sept. 2023)
Ukraine declined from rank 58 in 2021 to 71 in 2022
Source: Economist Impact

10. Crops
Harvested, thousand
hectares
2023*
Harvested
to forecast
2023*, %
Harvested
2023*,
thousand
metric
tonnes
Average yields, metric
tonnes per hectare
Change in yields
per hectare,%
2021 2022
Forecast,
thousand
hectares
Harvested,
thousand
hectares
2021 2022 2023*
2023* to
2021
2023* to
2022
Grain and legumes
total, including:
15,299.2 10,969.7 10,569.4 7,944.1 75.2 % 38,266.5 5.50 4.88 4.82 -12.4 % -1.2 %
•wheat 7,073.0 4,979.4 4,646.4 4,694.5 101.1 % 22,359.2 4.64 4.05 4.76 +2.6 % +17.5%
•barley 2,467.7 1,666.5 1,492.9 1,504.5 100.8 % 5,863.0 3.92 3.47 3.90 -0.5 % +12.4%
•corn 5,356.0 4,045.0 4,055.2 1,376.7 33.9 % 9,281.6 8.01 6.68 6.74 -15.9 % +0.9 %
•peas 240.4 118.1 150.0 154.4 102.9 % 396.8 2.43 2.28 2.57 +5.8 % +12.7%
•buckwheat 84.2 115.9 141.5 136.6 96.5 % 203.6 1.30 1.37 1.49 +14.6% +8.8 %
•millet 77.9 44.7 83.4 77.4 92.8 % 162.4 2.52 2.28 2.10 -16.7% -7.9 %
Soybeans 1,279.5 1,537.0 1,811.0 1,641.4 90.6 % 4,240.9 2.68 2.43 2.58 -3.7 % +6.2 %
Rapeseed 1,013.9 1,134.8 1,425.6 1,396.0 97.9 % 4,005.4 2.95 2.86 2.87 -2.7 % +0.3 %
Sunflower 6,482.4 4,825.5 5,059.7 4,357.2 86.1 % 10,210.6 2.52 2.18 2.34 -7.1 % +7.3 %
HARVESTING OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS IN UKRAINE,
as of October 20, 2023
Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine
Note: includes data from territories under Ukrainian control as of the reporting date

11. 42.1
33.0
10.1
3.5 2.9
16.9
27.3
20.2
5.8 3.7 3.9
11.1
28.1
22.4
5.9 4.8 4.1
13.9
28.0
22.5
5.7 4.8 4.3
14.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans Rapeseeds Sunflower seeds
2021 2022 2023* Ukrainian Ministry 2023* USDA
Source: based on data of Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine and USDA, as of October 12, 2023
FORECAST OF HARVEST OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS IN UKRAINE IN 2023, million metric tonnes
Total : up to 80.5 million tonnes (vs. 73.8 million tonnes in 2022)
• Grain and legumes – 57 million tonnes
• Oil crops – 23 million tonnes
23.5
18.7
5.8
1.1 2.7 1.1
29.5
16.8
2.7 3.3 3.4 2.4
22.0
16.0
3.0 3.3 4.0
0.5
19.5
11.0
1.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Corn Wheat Barley Soybeans Rapeseeds Sunflower seeds
2021/22 2022/23 2023/24* Ukrainian Ministry 2023/24* USDA
Total : up to 49 million tonnes (vs. 58 million tonnes in 2022/23)
FORECAST OF EXPORT POTENTIAL OF GRAIN, LEGUMES AND OIL CROPS FROM UKRAINE IN 2023/24 MY, million tonnes

12. SOWN AREA OF WINTER CROPS IN UKRAINE, thousand hectares
Source: based on data of the State Statistic Service of Ukraine and Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine
Crops 2020 2021 2022
2022 to
2021, %
Sown areas in 2023 for the 2024 harvest
Forecast
2023
Planted as of October 17,
2023
Forecast of 2023 to
planted in
thousand
hectares
% to forecast 2022, % 2021, %
Winter crops
total,
including:
8,973.5 9,029.4 5,449.4 -39.6 % 6,339.9 4,467.2 70.5 % + 16.3 % -29.8 %
•winter wheat 6,714.4 6,538.4 3,758.8 -42.5 % 4,355.3 3,017.8 69.3 % + 15.9 % -33.4 %
•winter barley 1,080.4 969.0 612.5 -36.8 % 692.1 260.1 37.6 % + 13.0 % -28.6 %
•winter rye 166.8 108.5 79.2 -27.0 % 80.9 65.2 80.6 % + 2.1 % -25.4 %
•winter
rapeseeds
1,011.9 1,413.5 998.9 -29.3 % 1,211.6 1,124.2 92.8 % + 21.3% -14.3 %
Note: includes data from territories under Ukrainian control as of the reporting date

13. 2030 UKRAINE CEREALS AND OILSEEDS MARKETS PROJECTIONS: 2023 – END OF THE WAR ASSUMPTION
Acreage of cereals and oilseeds, thousand hectares
Production of cereals and oilseeds, thousand tonnes
Source: Kyiv School of Economics

14. Questions?
Thank you!