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Using the EcoCrop niche model to forecast impacts of climate change on global crop production Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Bioversity International Cali, Colombia
Impact assessment: methods and data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Model: EcoCrop ,[object Object],It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
Choosing target crops ,[object Object]
Playing around with all this… ,[object Object]
More regional level impacts Percent of crops with significant gains /losses in each region… bad news for North and Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific… Maximum positive and negative changes per region… Europe: the big winner…
And a bit more… ,[object Object],[object Object]
Crop-based results ,[object Object]
Crop-based results ,[object Object],Contrasting responses on the same industry
Regional and crop-based results: contrasts EUROPE NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA
Country based results ,[object Object]
Country based results Current suitability and predicted changes to 2050s for geographic regions. Note the high variability in SSA and Asia, while relatively low variability in changes within Latin America Current suitability and number of crops with significant negative changes. Bubble size is Infant Mortality Rate
Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
Next steps ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next steps: validate and adjust the parameters ,[object Object],[object Object],Suitability prediction Visual validation Survey to gather validation data

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Julian R - Using the EcoCrop model and database to forecast impacts of cc

  • 1. Using the EcoCrop niche model to forecast impacts of climate change on global crop production Julián Ramírez and Andy Jarvis International Centre for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) Bioversity International Cali, Colombia
  • 2.
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  • 6. More regional level impacts Percent of crops with significant gains /losses in each region… bad news for North and Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, the Caribbean and the Pacific… Maximum positive and negative changes per region… Europe: the big winner…
  • 7.
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  • 10. Regional and crop-based results: contrasts EUROPE NORTH AFRICA SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LATIN AMERICA
  • 11.
  • 12. Country based results Current suitability and predicted changes to 2050s for geographic regions. Note the high variability in SSA and Asia, while relatively low variability in changes within Latin America Current suitability and number of crops with significant negative changes. Bubble size is Infant Mortality Rate
  • 13. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
  • 14. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
  • 15.
  • 16.