8 May 2019. Cairo. ICARDA Workshop on Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture.
Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat. Presentation by by Prof. Senthold Asseng, Professor at the Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department of the University of Florida.
Climate change effect on abiotic stress in fruit crops Parshant Bakshi
A change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Climate change, its impact on agriculture and mitigation strategiesVasu Dev Meena
According to IPCC (2007) “Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)”.
Climate change has adverse impacts on agriculture, hydropower, forest management and biodiversity.
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates, moisture availability etc.
Climate change directly affect food production across the globe.
Presentation delivered by Dr. Graham Farquhar (The Australian National University, Australia) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
Climate change effect on abiotic stress in fruit crops Parshant Bakshi
A change of climate, which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.
Climate change, its impact on agriculture and mitigation strategiesVasu Dev Meena
According to IPCC (2007) “Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its Variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)”.
Climate change has adverse impacts on agriculture, hydropower, forest management and biodiversity.
In the long run, the climatic change could affect agriculture in several ways such as quantity and quality of crops in terms of productivity, growth rates, photosynthesis and transpiration rates, moisture availability etc.
Climate change directly affect food production across the globe.
Presentation delivered by Dr. Graham Farquhar (The Australian National University, Australia) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org
Rosegrant, Mark. 2023. Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. PowerPoint presentation given during university-wide seminar. Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, March 30, 2023.
The climate resilient agriculture for rainfed and dryland farming is need of the hour. This discus the options of climate adapted agricultural technologies.
Agriculture and fisheries are highly dependent on specific climate conditions. Trying to understand the overall effect of climate change on our food supply can be difficult. Increases in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) can be beneficial for some crops in some places. But to realize these benefits, nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability, and other conditions must also be met. Changes in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods could pose challenges for farmers and ranchers. Meanwhile, warmer water temperatures are likely to cause the habitat ranges of many fish and shellfish species to shift, which could disrupt ecosystems. Overall, climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and same places as we have done in the past. The effects of climate change also need to be considered along with other evolving factors that affect agricultural production, such as changes in farming practices and technology.
Climate Smart Agriculture : Food Security of Future to the Climate ChangeIARI, NEW DELHI
Adverse climatic variabilities draw attention of people towards a sustainable approach
to mitigate against climate change to fulfil the increasing demand of this exploding
population. But due to increasing population, food security requires a sustainable
strategy and to combat these effects of climate, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) came
into existence in present climatic scenario for sustainable food security and enhances
food security and development. CSA is an integrative and interacting approach to
address these interlinked challenges of food security and climate change, i.e.,
sustainably increasing agricultural productivity, adapting and building agricultural
resilience and reducing emissions of greenhouse gas (GHGs) from agriculture activities
(including crops, livestock and fisheries). CSA combines to the actions both on-farm
and off-farm, and incorporates technologies, policies, organizations, institutions and
investment on an equal platform.
What will it take to establish a climate smart agricultural world? Presentation on the problems, solutions and key challenges in Climate Smart Agriculture. Presentation made in the Wayamba Conference in Sri Lanka, August 2014.
Rosegrant, Mark. 2023. Climate Change and Agriculture: Impacts, Adaptation, and Mitigation. PowerPoint presentation given during university-wide seminar. Texas State University, San Marcos, Texas, March 30, 2023.
The climate resilient agriculture for rainfed and dryland farming is need of the hour. This discus the options of climate adapted agricultural technologies.
Agriculture and fisheries are highly dependent on specific climate conditions. Trying to understand the overall effect of climate change on our food supply can be difficult. Increases in temperature and carbon dioxide (CO2) can be beneficial for some crops in some places. But to realize these benefits, nutrient levels, soil moisture, water availability, and other conditions must also be met. Changes in the frequency and severity of droughts and floods could pose challenges for farmers and ranchers. Meanwhile, warmer water temperatures are likely to cause the habitat ranges of many fish and shellfish species to shift, which could disrupt ecosystems. Overall, climate change could make it more difficult to grow crops, raise animals, and catch fish in the same ways and same places as we have done in the past. The effects of climate change also need to be considered along with other evolving factors that affect agricultural production, such as changes in farming practices and technology.
Climate Smart Agriculture : Food Security of Future to the Climate ChangeIARI, NEW DELHI
Adverse climatic variabilities draw attention of people towards a sustainable approach
to mitigate against climate change to fulfil the increasing demand of this exploding
population. But due to increasing population, food security requires a sustainable
strategy and to combat these effects of climate, climate-smart agriculture (CSA) came
into existence in present climatic scenario for sustainable food security and enhances
food security and development. CSA is an integrative and interacting approach to
address these interlinked challenges of food security and climate change, i.e.,
sustainably increasing agricultural productivity, adapting and building agricultural
resilience and reducing emissions of greenhouse gas (GHGs) from agriculture activities
(including crops, livestock and fisheries). CSA combines to the actions both on-farm
and off-farm, and incorporates technologies, policies, organizations, institutions and
investment on an equal platform.
What will it take to establish a climate smart agricultural world? Presentation on the problems, solutions and key challenges in Climate Smart Agriculture. Presentation made in the Wayamba Conference in Sri Lanka, August 2014.
Rising to the challenge of establishing a climate smart agriculture - a global context presented as keynote in the Workshop on Climate Smart Agriculture Technologies in Asia workshop, organised by CCAFS, UNEP and IRRI.
Bridging the gaps: Challenges and Opportunities CGIAR
Bridging the gaps between AR and ARD Challenges and Opportunities- presented by Alain Vidal, Senior Advisor, Capacity Development and Partnerships, CGIAR Consortium at the AKIS-ARCH Workshop, Brussels, 26-27 May 2014
Keating - Sustainable intensification and the food security challenge CIALCA
Presentation delivered at the CIALCA international conference 'Challenges and Opportunities to the agricultural intensification of the humid highland systems of sub-Saharan Africa'. Kigali, Rwanda, October 24-27 2011.
Bridging the gaps between agricultural research and AR for development Brusse...Alain Vidal
Presentation made upon invitation of European ARCH and AKIS groups (EC plus Member States) to introduce a 2-day workshop on "Best strategies for intercontinental research and innovation partnerships - towards greater impact on global challenges". Brussels, 26-27 May 2014
Unlocking the potential of SOC for climate action, food security and sustaina...ExternalEvents
This presentation was presented during the Plenary 3, Working group, Conclusion and Closure of the Global Symposium on Soil Organic Carbon that took place in Rome 21-23 March 2017. The presentation was made by Mr. Pete Smith from FAO, in FAO Hq, Rome
Presentation by Lini Wollenberg on behalf of Meryl Richards, both from CCAFS and the University of Vermont Gund Institute for Environment
International conference on agricultural emissions and food security: Connecting research to policy and practice
10-13 September 2018
Berlin, Germany
Presentation by Mr. Eric Yao, co-ordinator of The Africa Centre, Dublin, and a farmer in Ghana, on the effects that a changing climate has had on his business.
Can we measure female social entrepreneurship? ICARDA
1st Annual Conference of the Private Sector Development Research Network:Private Enterprise and Inclusion12-13 December 2019
Presentation by Anastasia Seferiadis, Sarah Cummings and Bénédicte Gastineau
Building Climate Smart FARMERSThe Indian PerspectiveICARDA
Presented by
DR. KIRIT N SHELAT, I.A.S. (Rtd)
National Council for Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Public Leadership (NCCSD)
AHMEDABAD - INDIA
SUSTAINABLE SILVOPASTORAL RESTORATION TO PROMOTE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN TUNISIAICARDA
25 - 29 November 2019. Antalya, Turkey. Near East Forestry and Range Commission (NEFRC) - 24th Session
Presentation by Dr. Mounir Louhaichi
Rangeland Ecology & Management
International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas
M.Louhaichi@cigar.org
Highlights on 2019 research outputs and outcomesICARDA
18-20/11/2019. ICARDA Board of Trustees. The Program Committee of the first day was open to all staff. It included:
Highlights of recent research breakthroughs and strategic questions presented by Strategic Research Priorities (CRPs) and Cross Cutting Themes (CCTs).
The presentation is a brief highlight of the rationale for mobile data collection and the landscape of the mobile data collection platforms that exist, and the potential considerations for a choice of a choice of open data kit as a subject of the training
URI
https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11766/10373
See also:
https://www.icarda.org/media/events/monitoring-evaluation-and-learning-data-management-and-geo-informatics-option-context
BRINGING INNOVATION AND SUSTAINABILITY ALONG THE WHOLE VALUE CHAIN IN THE MED...ICARDA
Tunis, 6-7 November 2019. Training workshop PRIMA – Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area is the most ambitious joint programme to be undertaken in the frame of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.
Presentation by Prof. M. Hachicha National Research Institute in Rural Engineering, Water and Forestry, University of Carthage | UCAR
Utilizing the reject brine from desalination for implementing integrated agri...ICARDA
14-15 November 2019. Madrid. International Symposium on the use of Non-Conventional Waters to achieve Food Security
DESALINATION - “Advancing desalination: reducing energy consumption and environmental footprint”
Presentation by Ms Dionysia Lyra, International Centre on Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA), United Arab Emirates
The role of higher and vocational education and training in developing knowle...ICARDA
25 October 2019. Africa-Europe event on higher education collaboration
Investing in skills and the young generation is key for sustainable social and economic development. Africa and Europe have been working together to develop high quality and inclusive higher education systems, exchange experience in matching skills with the demands of the labour market and to support collaboration, mobility and exchange between students and scientists within and between the African continent and Europe.
Characteristics of a winning research proposal ICARDA
Tunis, 6-7 November 2019. Training workshop PRIMA – Partnership for Research and Innovation in the Mediterranean Area is the most ambitious joint programme to be undertaken in the frame of Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.
Yehia Selmi, co-founder, Bio-wonder, Tunisia.
28 October 2019. Cairo. On the occasion of the 10th Africa Food Day Commemoration, held in joint food and nutrition security research and innovation projects within the Africa-EU Partnership.
Panel 4: Panel 4 – Idea-carriers:
Dr. Jacques Wery, Deputy Director General Research, ICARDA (CGIAR)
28 October 2019. On the occasion of the 10th Africa Food Day Commemoration, held in Egypt under the chairmanship of the African Union by Egypt in 2019, the North Africa event, organized by LEAP4FNSSA with the support of ARC/ Agricultural Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, launched a public private alliance of partners between Europe and North Africa to develop joint food and nutrition security research and innovation projects within the Africa-EU Partnership
Funding networks and mechanisms to support EU AU FNSSA R&I ICARDA
Dr. Bernard Mallet, Agriculture Projects Coordinator, Agence Nationale de la Recherche, France
28 October. On the occasion of the 10th Africa Food Day Commemoration, held in Egypt under the chairmanship of the African Union by Egypt in 2019, the North Africa event, organized by LEAP4FNSSA with the support of ARC/ Agricultural Research Center of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, launched a public private alliance of partners between Europe and North Africa to develop joint food and nutrition security research and innovation projects within the Africa-EU Partnership
https://www.icarda.org/media/events/building-research-and-innovation-collaborations-within-frame-african-european
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Presentation by Chandrashekhar Biradar and team.
16-18 October 2019. Hyderabad, India. TRUST: Humans, Machines & Ecosystems. This year’s Convention was hosted by The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT). The Platform is led by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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f you offer a service on the web, odds are that someone will abuse it. Be it an API, a SaaS, a PaaS, or even a static website, someone somewhere will try to figure out a way to use it to their own needs. In this talk we'll compare measures that are effective against static attackers and how to battle a dynamic attacker who adapts to your counter-measures.
About the Speaker
===============
Diogo Sousa, Engineering Manager @ Canonical
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Emily Wise, Lund University
Madeline Smith, The Glasgow School of Art
Have you ever wondered how search works while visiting an e-commerce site, internal website, or searching through other types of online resources? Look no further than this informative session on the ways that taxonomies help end-users navigate the internet! Hear from taxonomists and other information professionals who have first-hand experience creating and working with taxonomies that aid in navigation, search, and discovery across a range of disciplines.
This presentation by Morris Kleiner (University of Minnesota), was made during the discussion “Competition and Regulation in Professions and Occupations” held at the Working Party No. 2 on Competition and Regulation on 10 June 2024. More papers and presentations on the topic can be found out at oe.cd/crps.
This presentation was uploaded with the author’s consent.
Acorn Recovery: Restore IT infra within minutesIP ServerOne
Introducing Acorn Recovery as a Service, a simple, fast, and secure managed disaster recovery (DRaaS) by IP ServerOne. A DR solution that helps restore your IT infra within minutes.
1. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat
Senthold Asseng
2. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
…wheat was always important…
Egypt National Museum
Egypt National Museum
Edfu Temple
3. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Agriculture & population growth
World Bank 2016, Bourguignon and Morrisson 2002
Global population (billion)
Extreme
poverty/hunger
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1820 1850 1900 1950 2000 2015
4. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Projected population growth
https://population.un.org
7.7 billion
today
Global
population
(billion)
15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1800 1900 1960 2000 2060 2100
5. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Agriculture & food demand
Increase food demand
Population increase
• 3 billion in 1960
• 7.7 billion now
• >9 billion in 2050
• 800 M undernourished
BUT (West et al. 2014 Science)…
Undernourished population
Source: United Nations Statistics 2012
Food Waste
http://lifereallymatters.com
Overweight
Calories (T kg)
Food
Feed
Other
Global calorie production
West et al. 2014 Science
1961 1980 2000 2009
Year
6. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Produce more food
Population increase
Need 60% more food in 2050
(Alexandratos & Bruinsma 2012 FAO Report)
Increase nutritional value
Tamp
Agriculture & food demand
7. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Produce more food
Increase nutritional value
Reduce environmental impact
(Irrigationin agriculture = 70% of global water
withdrawals with India, Pakistan, China, USA =
72% of all irrigation) (West et al. 2014 Science)
High risk of surface water pollution across the world
Ippolito et al. 2015 Environmental Pollution
Tamp
Agriculture & pollution
8. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Produce more food
Increase nutritional value
Reduce environmental impact
Agriculture & pollution
News4Jax, 13 August 2018
Cordell and Stuart White 2011
Sustainability
Phosphorus production (Mt P/year)
9. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Agriculture
Produce more food
Increase nutritional value
Reduce environmental impact
…Climate change
10. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Climate change & green house effect
Carbon dioxide acts like a blanket, absorbing IR
radiation & preventing it from escaping into
outer space net effect heating of Earth
11. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Since when do we know about climate change?
Arrhenius 1896 Philosophical Magazine and
Journal of Science
- doubling of atmospheric CO2 could cause
an increase in Earth’s surface temperature
of 6.1 – 8.1°C
(3.1 – 5.0°C suggest by GCMs)Swedish chemist
Svante Arrhenius
12. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
NASA
Past temperature trend
13. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Knutti and Sedlacek 2013 Nature CC
Future temperature trend
14. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Agriculture --- Climate Change
Climate Change
Temperature increased by 1.0 oC
By 2050: Atmospheric CO2 >500ppm
By 2100:
Temperature +2 to 4 oC
More extremes (heat, droughts,
rainfall).
(IPCC 2015)
Produce more food
Increase nutritional value
Reduce environmental impact
15. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
AgMIP
Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project
AgMIP is a distributed program:
model intercomparison and future climate change impacts
multiple climate, crop & agricultural economics modeling groups around the world
started in 2010
close to 1000 members
>30 teams
Rosenzweig et al., 2013 AFM
www.agmip.org
16. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
For protocols, up-to-date events, and news;
and to join AgMIP listserv – www.agmip.org
17. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Modeling (Wheat) Cropping Systems
CO2
Light Temperature Rainfall/Irrigation
Crop Management
Carter 2013
Soil
Time
(Ozone)
Cultivar Agronomy
Breeding
18. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
$2M in yield
(4000ha farm @$200/t)
$360,000 in N costs
(90kg N @1$/kg N)
Individual farms
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
0
1
2
3
Western Australian wheat-belt
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006Mean Mullewa & Yuna rainfall
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
0
200
400
600
Western Australian wheat-belt
rainfall
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Grain
Yield
(t/ha)
Rainfall
(mm)
Year
May to October
Annual
Seasonal variability
Asseng et al. 2012 EJA
19. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Maximum and minimum temperature (OC)
4
8
12
16
20
24
Wheat yield (t/ha) (Wet season)
2
3
4
5
Wheat yield (t/ha) (Dry season)
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Tmax
Tmin
Grain yield (simulated)
Western
Australia
Seasonal variability – rainfall & temperature
Asseng et al. 2011 GCB
wet season
dry season
Grain yield (simulated)
20. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
observed - symbols
simulated - lines
0
1
2
3
N application (t/ha)
0
40
80
120
160
200
240ilisation
ha)
0
1
2 0
40
80
120
160
200
240
L1 1991 L1 1992
L2 L3
Remobilisation (t/ha)
Asseng & van Herwaarden 2003 Plant Soil
Remobilisation of water-soluble carbohydrates
21. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Gross margins (A$/farm) (,000)
0
200
400
600
800AllC
rop
AllC
rop
+
forecast
C
rop
/
Pasture
C
rop
+
forecast/
PastureC
rop
+
forecast/
Pasture
+forecast
Nyabing
3000 ha farm, duplex soil
GM’s
from
sheep
Forecast benefit
Seasonal forecast – wheat/sheep farming
Asseng et al. 2012 Ag Syst
22. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Months
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Average monthly rainfall (mm)
0
20
40
60
80
Ludwig, Milroy & Asseng 2009 Climatic Change
1945 – 1974
1975 - 2008
wheat
Yield impact depends on:
pattern of rainfall change
soil type (water storage
capacity)
Declining rainfall does not necessarily mean less yield
23. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Multi-model approach
24. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
x
x
x
x
AgMIP-Wheat
25 models consistent across 2 data sets:
a) 4 pilot locations – contrasting conditions
b) 6 CIMMYT hot locations (2 cultivars)
25. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Median
1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6
Location
Model
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Rank value
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Median
1 2 3 4
Location
Model
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Rank value
Model ranking (to observation)
6-CIMMYT hot locations (2 cultivars)4-pilot locations – contrasting conditions
26. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Multi-model ensembles
27. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Multi-model ensembles
Season mean temperature (°C)
15 20 25 30 35
Grainyield(t/ha)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Bruce Kimball
Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC
Season mean temperature (°C)
15 20 25 30 35
Grainyield(t/ha)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
simulated
median
+/-25%tile
observed
28. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Multi-model ensembles
Multi-model ensemble median is a better predictor
than any single model !
• Wheat yields --- Asseng et al. 2013 Nature CC
• Wheat yields (heat stress) --- Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC
• Wheat variables --- Martre et al. 2014 GCB
• Maize yields --- Bassu et al. 2014 GCB
• Rice yields --- Li et al. 2014 GCB
• Potato yields --- Fleisher et al. 2016 GCB
• Stats explanation --- Wallach et al. 2018 GCB
29. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Temperature impact on crops
30. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Wheat Yield decline with increasing temperature
Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC
6% decline in global wheat production for each degree in global warming
Wheat producing area
30 model ensemble median (& mean of 30 years)
+2 oC
31. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Experiments
Assimilation
Root
Shoot + Leaf Grain
Residues
(surface)
Residues
(roots)
BIOM
C:N
HUM
C:N
FOM
carbohydartes
lignin
cellulose
Mineral-N
NH4
NO3
urea NH4
Mineralisation
Immobilisation
Harvest
Leaching
C
N
C
N
N
C,N
C,N
CO2
TUE
Es
Ep
Denitrification
FertiliserCO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
LL SATDUL
runoff
Drainage
1
2
3
n
rainfall
max & min
temperature
solar
radiation
C
Water Soil
Crop
Phenology
Crop models
Impact
Multi-model points
US wheat yields
Statistical models
Global-gridded
32. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Zhao et al. 2017 PNAS
Impacts of global temperature increase on global yield estimates
for major crops (using 4 methods)
Yield impact
with 1oC
increase in
global
temperature
(%)
Impacts of 1oC
(For wheat: Liu et al. 2016 Nature CC)
33. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Climate change impact on crops
34. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Grain yield Grain protein %
550ppm
Model testing with CO2 x T x Rain
(Increased T)
Median of 32 (18 with N) wheat models
Asseng et al. 2019 GCB
simulated
observed
35. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Median of 32 models, 5 GCMs, mean of 30 years, RCP8.5 @2050s
Asseng et al.
2019 GCB
Climate change impact (temperature, CO2, rain) on grain yield
36. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Climate change impact (temperature, CO2, rain) on grain yield
Median of 32 models, 5 GCMs, mean of 30 years, RCP8.5 @2050s
Mexico -7.9%
(3 CM x 5 GCMs, 2050s, RCP8.5)
Hernandez-Ochoa et al. 2018 AFM
Egypt -1.7%
(3 CM x 3 GCMs, 2050, RCP8.5, +techno trend)
Asseng, Kheir et al. 2018 ERL
Asseng et al.
2019 GCB
37. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Adaptation: Field observations from 4 experiments
Proposed adaptation to increased temperature:
Delay anthesis + increase grain filling rate, Asseng et al. 2015 Nature CC
Does exist, Asseng et al. 2019 GCB
Asseng et al. 2019 GCB
Warm
Cold
38. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Climate change impact (2050) at global scale (temperature, CO2, rain)
Asseng et al. 2019 GCB
Median of 32 (18 with N) models
39. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Country trends (2002-2015) of N fertilizer use in agriculture
(top 20 wheat producer)
FAO, 2018
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Nuse(*1,000t)
China India Russia USA France
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Nuse(*1,000t)
Canada Germany Pakistan Ukraine Australia
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Nuse(*1,000t)
Turkey United Kingdom Argentina Kazakhstan Poland
Nutrients likely to limit
growth stimulus from
elevated CO2 in many
regions
40. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Climate extremes - impact on crops
41. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Price & extreme drought/heat
2008 Food Riots
2010 Arab Spring
0
100
200
300
400
500
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Wheat price (US$/t)
Source: FAO
2010 Drought/heat
20
40
60
80
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Wheat production (million tons)
Russia
Source: FAO
42. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Asseng, Kheir et al.
2018 ERL
Egypt: stagnating yields since 2000 & heat shock
simulated
Year 2010
(1.5Mt or 16% drop)
Stagnating
yields in many
countries
Ray et al. 2012
Nature Comms
43. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
1900 - 2006
2080 - 2100
Battisti & Naylor 2009 Science
Temperature anomaly (oC)
Number of seasons
France
2003 hottest year in 100 years, normal in 2090
Current extremes will be the normal by end of century
44. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Ben-Ari et al. 2018 Nature Comms
New kind of yield shock caused by climate change trends
Year 2016
(13Mt or 32% drop)
Combination of warmer early winter + intensive rainfall (during key crop stages)
caused: increased disease pressure, water logging, nutrient leaching, lower solar radiation
France
45. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
Agriculture --- Climate Change
Climate Change
Temperature increased by 1.0 oC
By 2050: Atmospheric CO2 >500ppm
By 2100:
Temperature +2 to 4 oC
More extremes (heat, droughts,
rainfall).
(IPCC 2015)
Produce more food
Increase nutritional value
Reduce environmental impact
46. Senthold Asseng, Climate change impact and adaptation in wheat, Workshop on Novel Research Dimensions in Modeling Climate Change Impacts in Agriculture, ICARDA, 8 May 2019
“You can't build a peaceful world
on empty stomachs …”
Dr. Norman Borlaug, 1970 Nobel Peace Prize
Senthold Asseng sasseng@ufl.edu
Editor's Notes
1.4 M young people in 123 countries
2017 northern Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen. And this week, the United Nations declared famine in a patch of South Sudan. 20M people affected
Currently enough food to feed everybody
30% food waste (storage, end-user)
Over-consumption (2 B people obese/overweight)
Closing yield gap – e.g. increasing yields to 50% of potential yield = food for 850 M people
Changing meat consumption & biofuels could feed 4 B people
Relative to the 17 major crops, rice and wheat together cover 63% of the total irrigated area and consume 59% of irrigation water globally.
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
2017 northern Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen. And this week, the United Nations declared famine in a patch of South Sudan. 20M people affected
Currently enough food to feed everybody
30% food waste (storage, end-user)
Over-consumption (2 B people obese/overweight)
Closing yield gap – e.g. increasing yields to 50% of potential yield = food for 850 M people
Changing meat consumption & biofuels could feed 4 B people
Relative to the 17 major crops, rice and wheat together cover 63% of the total irrigated area and consume 59% of irrigation water globally.
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
2017 northern Nigeria, Somalia and Yemen. And this week, the United Nations declared famine in a patch of South Sudan. 20M people affected
Currently enough food to feed everybody
30% food waste (storage, end-user)
Over-consumption (2 B people obese/overweight)
Closing yield gap – e.g. increasing yields to 50% of potential yield = food for 850 M people
Changing meat consumption & biofuels could feed 4 B people
Relative to the 17 major crops, rice and wheat together cover 63% of the total irrigated area and consume 59% of irrigation water globally.
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates
Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates
Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates
Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates
Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket, absorbing IR radiation (longwave) and preventing it from escaping into outer space. The net effect is the gradual heating of Earth's atmosphere and surface, a process known as global warming. Solar energy enters as shortwave (UV and visible light). Earth re-emits energy as longwave radiation in the form of infrared rays.
Figure b1. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in all directions (including downwards), keeping Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere warm. Adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere enhances the effect, making Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere even warmer. Image based on a figure from US EPA.
doubling of atmospheric CO2 could cause an increase in Earth’s surface temperature of 11 - 14.5°F
(5.5 - 9°F suggest by GCMs)
Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases act like a blanket, absorbing IR radiation and preventing it from escaping into outer space. The net effect is the gradual heating of Earth's atmosphere and surface, a process known as global warming
Figure b1. Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, including water vapour, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, absorb heat energy and emit it in all directions (including downwards), keeping Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere warm. Adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere enhances the effect, making Earth’s surface and lower atmosphere even warmer. Image based on a figure from US EPA.
emperature histories from paleoclimate data (green line) compared to the history based on modern instruments (blue line) suggest that global temperature is warmer now than it has been in the past 1,000 years, and possibly longer. (Graph adapted from Mann et al., 2008.)
Global temperature change (mean and one standard deviation as shading) relative to 1986–2005 for the SRES scenarios run by CMIP3 and the RCP scenarios run by CMIP5. The number of models is given in brackets. The box plots (mean, one standard deviation, and minimum to maximum range) are given for 2080–2099 for CMIP5 (colours) and for the MAGICC model calibrated to 19 CMIP3 models (black), both running the RCP scenarios.
Northern hemisphere – driven by application rates
Southern – driven by combination of rainfall intensity, terrain slope, ag intensity and application rate
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F
4 crops supply 2/3 of global food
Data are medians of measured or simulated changes and error bars show 25th to 75th percentile intervals.
Mt %GP t/GP
700 13 91
The initial causes of the late-2006 price spikes included droughts in grain-producing nations and rising oil prices.[6] Oil price increases also caused general escalations in the costs of fertilizers, food transportation, and industrial agriculture. Root causes may be the increasing use of biofuels in developed countries (see also food vs fuel),[7] and an increasing demand for a more varied diet across the expanding middle-class populations of Asia.[8][9]The Food and Agriculture Organization also raised concerns about the role of hedge funds speculating on prices leading to major shifts in prices.[10] These factors, coupled with falling world-food stockpiles, all contributed to the worldwide rise in food prices
(CNN) -- Riots from Haiti to Bangladesh to Egypt over the soaring costs of basic foods have brought the April 2008 CNN: issue to a boiling point and catapulted it to the forefront of the world's attention, the head of an agency focused on global development said Monday.
FAO and Index mundi
https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=wheat&months=360
Russia = 32% drop from previous year (from 62 to 42 M t)
#5 in world wheat production (in 2017) 42 to 29Mt drop
China, India, Russia, USA
The drop in French production comes at a period of high output in other wheat-producing countries, which has led to a fall in world prices; prices are at rock bottom as harvests have been very good elsewhere, notably in Ukraine, Romania and Russia,”
Ben-Ari paper mention soil-born disseases, leave fungal diseases and viruses but nothing specific
+1C since start of industrial revolution
1960 = 3b people
2000=0.9b undernourished, 2014 0.8b
0.6 = 1.0 F
2=3.6F
4=6.2F