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CCAFS Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security


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CCAFS Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security

  1. 2. The Challenge
  2. 3. The concentration of GHGs is rising Long-term implications for the climate and for crop suitability
  3. 4. Historical impacts on food security % Yield impact for wheat Observed changes in growing season temperature for crop growing regions,1980-2008. Lobell et al (2011)
  4. 5. Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050 Crop suitability is changing
  5. 6. <ul><li>In order to meet global demands, we will need </li></ul><ul><li>60-70% </li></ul><ul><li>more food </li></ul><ul><li>by 2050. </li></ul>Food security is at risk
  6. 7. “ Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050 ,” relative to the full mitigation scenario. -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
  7. 8. Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
  8. 9. Left : Example of a silvo-pastoral system 2006 2007 2008 Ecosystem valuation Spot the livestock! Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
  9. 10. Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
  10. 11. Program Design
  11. 12. CCAFS: the partnership
  12. 13. <ul><li>Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. </li></ul><ul><li>Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies , and of climate issues in agricultural policies , at all levels. </li></ul>CCAFS objectives
  13. 14. The CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change <ul><li>Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change </li></ul><ul><li>Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation </li></ul>Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems Trade-offs and Synergies <ul><li>4. Integration for Decision Making </li></ul><ul><li>Linking Knowledge with Action </li></ul><ul><li>Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning </li></ul><ul><li>Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis </li></ul>
  14. 15. Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices The CGIAR Research Centers Lead center - CIAT
  15. 16. Place-based field work Indo- Gangetic Plains : There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise; the intensity and probability of extreme events will likely increase. Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal East Africa : Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress. Regional director: James Kinyangi West Africa : Extreme rainfall variability impedes precipitation predictions, but the Sahel will likely experience shorter growing periods. Regional director: Robert Zougmor é
  16. 17. Progressive Adaptation <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>To adapt farming systems, we need to: </li></ul><ul><li>Close the production gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies </li></ul><ul><li>Increase the bar : develop new ways to increase food production potential </li></ul><ul><li>Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level </li></ul>
  17. 18. Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
  18. 19. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 <ul><li>1.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) </li></ul><ul><li>Agricultural knowledge transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms </li></ul>Adapted farming systems <ul><li>1.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies </li></ul><ul><li>Regional fora to discuss and set priorities </li></ul>Breeding strategies for climate stresses <ul><li>1.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>On-farm use of diversity to adapt </li></ul><ul><li>Policies of access for benefit sharing </li></ul>Species and genetic diversity
  19. 20. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?
  20. 21. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?
  21. 22. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?
  22. 23. Karnal (India) <ul><li>Rainy season from June to September </li></ul>
  23. 24. Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management
  24. 25. TPE analysis Future systems Knowledge & intuition Ideotype concept Gene/allelediscovery Intelligent phenotyping designs Marker developmt. Modeling Marker validation, Integration, G x E x M Molecular breeding Intelligent choice of populations Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment CHANGE Con-ventional breeding Application Methodology Search Function, regulation, phénotype Strategic choices Diversity Panels Biparental Pops CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2: Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon
  25. 26. >> Multi-site agricultural trial database( 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011
  26. 27. <ul><li>Over 3,000 trials </li></ul><ul><li>16 crops </li></ul><ul><li>20 countries </li></ul><ul><li>> 15 international and national institutions </li></ul>New data >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(
  27. 28. Risk Management <ul><li>THE VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Climate-related risk impedes development , leading to chronic poverty and dependency </li></ul><ul><li>Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations . </li></ul></ul>
  28. 29. Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods ( Farm level ) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response ( Food system level ) Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services Managing Climate Risk · 2
  29. 30. Managing Climate Risk · 2 <ul><li>2.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Designed diversification </li></ul><ul><li>Index-based risk transfer </li></ul><ul><li>Anticipatory mgmt, aided by forecasts and communications </li></ul><ul><li>Participatory action research </li></ul>Building resilient livelihoods <ul><li>2.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Manage price volatility via trade and storage </li></ul><ul><li>Improved early warning systems </li></ul><ul><li>Coordin. platform </li></ul><ul><li>Food safety nets </li></ul><ul><li>Post-crisis recovery </li></ul>Food delivery, trade, and crisis response <ul><li>2.3 </li></ul><ul><li>info. </li></ul><ul><li>Historical data reconstruction </li></ul><ul><li>Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions </li></ul><ul><li>Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests & diseases </li></ul><ul><li>services </li></ul><ul><li>Institutional arrangements </li></ul><ul><li>Communication processes </li></ul><ul><li>Capacity bldg for providers </li></ul>Climate information and services
  30. 31. Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses. <ul><li>Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance </li></ul><ul><li>Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk </li></ul>What CCAFS outputs? Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index avoids the high cost of verifying losses and overcomes the problems of moral hazard, adverse selection and. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks. Why is it useful?
  31. 32. Managing climate risk · 2 >> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO What CCAFS outputs? Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc Why is it useful?
  32. 33. Pro-poor Mitigation VISION Short-term : Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term : Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
  33. 34. Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements Objective Three : Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
  34. 35. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 <ul><li>3.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation </li></ul><ul><li>Assess impacts of current policies </li></ul><ul><li>Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlpt </li></ul>Low-carbon development pathways <ul><li>3.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on best bets (SE Asia, Latin Amer) </li></ul><ul><li>Assess potential non-market options </li></ul><ul><li>Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women </li></ul>Incentives and instit. arrangements <ul><li>3.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms </li></ul><ul><li>Dvlpt cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. </li></ul><ul><li>Assess impacts of all GHGs through their lifecycles. </li></ul>On-farm mitigation options
  35. 36. Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa What CCAFS outputs? <ul><li>Direct link between research and action </li></ul><ul><li>Strong demand from carbon project managers </li></ul>Why is it useful? Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research
  36. 37. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3 >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural emissions Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts. What CCAFS outputs? Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. Why is it useful?
  37. 38. Integration <ul><li>VISION </li></ul><ul><li>Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework , grounded in the policy context </li></ul><ul><li>Synthesize lessons learned </li></ul><ul><li>Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions </li></ul><ul><li>Build partners’ capacity </li></ul>
  38. 39. Rural Livelihoods Environment Food Security Integration for Decision Making T2 : Risk Management T3 : Pro-poor Mitigation
  39. 40. Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis Integration for Decision Making · 4
  40. 41. Integration for Decision Making · 4 <ul><li>4.1 </li></ul><ul><li>Regional scenarios </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability assessments </li></ul><ul><li>Approaches to decision making informed by good science </li></ul><ul><li>Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups </li></ul>Linking knowledge with action <ul><li>4.2 </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development </li></ul><ul><li>Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders </li></ul>Data and tools for analysis and planning <ul><li>4.3 </li></ul><ul><li>Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies </li></ul><ul><li>Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups </li></ul>Frameworks for policy analysis
  41. 42. Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households What CCAFS outputs? <ul><li>Sites for participatory action research </li></ul><ul><li>Guidance for research foci </li></ul><ul><li>Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts </li></ul>Why is it useful? Integration for Decision Making · 4 >> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey
  42. 43. >> Spotlight on: Integration for Decision Making · 4 A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe What CCAFS outputs? To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies Why is it useful?
  43. 44. Select climate model (6 options or their avg) Select emissions scenario (3 options) Select the centre year of the time slice Select location Select the number of years of data desired Integration for Decision Making · 4 MarkSim ™
  44. 45. Global scenarios … … regional scenarios … (demand, land use, global prices, etc) Inputs Ecosystem services (regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc) Checks for coherence, consistency, viability <ul><li>Evaluating options: </li></ul><ul><li>Incomes </li></ul><ul><li>Food security </li></ul><ul><li>Livelihoods </li></ul><ul><li>Trade-offs </li></ul>… household assessment … providing context and inputs to … … providing context and inputs to … Checks for coherence, consistency, viability Aggregation Disaggregation
  45. 46. Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs
  46. 47. Building a user-driven agenda <ul><li>From large-scale stakeholder consultations </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. GCARD, regional meetings </li></ul><ul><li>Specific exercises with selected groups </li></ul><ul><li>e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials </li></ul>From local to regional to global
  47. 48. Mainstream outputs and outcomes For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results. CLIFF, meteorological services, climate and agricultural research institutes, the Climate Food and Farming PhD student network For policy partners to demand and use data, tools, and results Governments, civil society, development organizations, farmers’ organizations, private sector e.g. User-driven regional scenarios
  48. 49. People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently. A Definition <ul><li>Adaptation requires embedded local capacity, not external solutions </li></ul><ul><li>CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action </li></ul>The CCAFS Vision Capacity enhancement
  49. 50. <ul><li>Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) abilities to respond </li></ul><ul><li>30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation </li></ul><ul><li>Early work in gender studies, opportunities for women scientists </li></ul>Social differentiation
  50. 51. Join up climate, ag & food policy <ul><li>Based on robust science, what policy changes need to happen and what are the levers? </li></ul><ul><li>13 Commissioners, 10 months </li></ul>The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change <ul><li>Putting agriculture and food security on the climate map </li></ul><ul><li>Global partners, major reach </li></ul>Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)
  51. 52. CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations. Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) Global policy impact The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals. The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
  52. 53. Urgent actions in 2011
  53. 54. Participatory action research <ul><li>Participatory trials of practices, tools & technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Cross-site learning visits to empower farmers to build adaptation strategies </li></ul>
  54. 55. Communications & engagement on multiple fronts , with regional partners and farmers’ voices Hope for agriculture in the UNFCCC? Hague process, Commission, ARDD, Meridian, SACAU & FANRPAN Need to bring African policy-makers on board Communications & policy outreach
  55. 56. Verbal, photo and video testimonials <ul><li>Link local & scientific knowledge </li></ul><ul><li>Communicate uncertainty </li></ul>Amplifying rural voices
  56. 57. CCAFS Governance Structure
  57. 58. <ul><li>Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work. </li></ul><ul><li>Budget assigned strategically. </li></ul>2012 and beyond CCAFS Start-Up <ul><li>Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships. </li></ul><ul><li>Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations. </li></ul>2011 as a transition year
  58. 59. CCAFS Budget Subtotal Executed by Centers 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Theme 1 Adaptation to progressive climate change 16.9 18.0 18.5 19.5 20.4 93.3 Theme 2 Adaptation through managing climate risk 5.3 6.0 7.0 7.4 7.7 33.4 Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation 7.9 8.6 9.5 10.0 10.5 46.4 Theme 4 Integration for decision making 9.7 10.2 11.2 11.7 12.3 55.1 CRP7, Theme and regional coordination 1.1 1.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 8.1 Subtotal 40.9 44.1 48.0 50.4 53.0 236.4 37% 14% 19% 27% 3% Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive climate change Theme 2: Adaptation through managing climate risk Theme 3: Pro- - poor climate change mitigation Theme 4: Integration for decision making CRP7: Theme and regional coordination
  59. 60. CCAFS Budget across centers
  60. 61. CCAFS Budget across centers - Unrestricted
  61. 62. ILRI Activity Plan part 1 Theme 1, Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 1.1 Adapted Farming systems to changing climate conditions Data assembly (including systems and the analytical framework), analysis and synthesis Documentation of future vulnerability of livestock systems globally to target interventions   INRA-led consortium of 27 partners 1.2 Breeding strategies for future climatic conditions 1.3 Species and genetic diversity for climate change Theme 2, Adaptation Pathways for Current Climate Risk Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 2.1 Managing climate risk and building resilient livelihoods Workshops, syntheses, report writing Documentation of how agro-pastoralists are coping with climate risk in West and Southern Africa, and piloting options as to how they may cope with increased climate risk in the future   PIK, University of Kassel, IER (Mali), IIAM (Mozambique), IFPRI 2.2 Managing climate risk through food delivery, trade and crisis response 2.3 Prediction of climate impacts, and enhanced climate services
  62. 63. ILRI Activity Plan part 2 Theme 3, Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 3.1. Low-carbon agricultural development pathways Consultations, workshop, analysis, syntheses Greenhouse gas emissions from livestock systems by country: updating the IPCC numbers   IIASA, FAO 3.2 Institutional arrangements and incentives for mitigation 3.3 On-farm mitigation practices and landscape implications Workshop, syntheses Scoping study on carbon sequestration in livestock systems in developing countries   Under development Theme 4, Integration for Decision Making Activity in 2011 Outputs in 2011 Partners 4.1 Linking knowledge with action 4.2 Data and tools for analysis and planning Model development, testing and documentation Documentation for GLOBIOM-Livestock, a global integrated assessment model with explicit treatment of livestock issues 4.3 Refining frameworks for policy analysis Writeshops, syntheses Global review of livestock issues in global change  IFPRI, IIASA, PIK, FAO, PBL 
  63. 64. Director: Bruce Campbell Head of Research : Sonja Vermeulen Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann Program Manager : Misha Wolsgaard-Iversen Events & Program Support Consultant: Ratih Septivita Communications Consultant : Vanessa Meadu CCAFS Director and Heads Program & Comm. Support The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort?
  64. 65. T1: Adaptation to Progressive CC Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis & Andy Challinor Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen Science Officer: Kevin Coffey T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: Lini Wollenberg Science Officer: Michael Misiko T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leaders: Phil Thornton, Gerry Nelson, Patti Kristjanson Science Officers: Wiebke Chaudhury, Christina Sison, Moushumi Chaudhury The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the effort?
  65. 66. <ul><li>Plug into centre communications and co-brand outputs </li></ul><ul><li>Create a platform for fund-raising to support centres </li></ul>Co-branding of CC work How we would like to work <ul><li>Connect people </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce redundancy </li></ul><ul><li>Maximise creative potential </li></ul><ul><li>Elevate the level of CGIAR research and its outreach </li></ul>Integrating across the CGIAR
  66. 67. <ul><li>Use research products coming out of other centers </li></ul><ul><li>Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy </li></ul><ul><li>Develop ownership and feel a part of the program AND your centre </li></ul>Collaborate and contribute What Should You Do? <ul><li>Learn about the program on the web and through presentations </li></ul><ul><li>Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research </li></ul>Learn and engage
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