CCAFS workshop titled "Using Climate Scenarios and Analogues for Designing Adaptation Strategies in Agriculture," 19-23 September in Kathmandu, Nepal.

1. The climate analogues approach Concepts and application

3. The Challenge

4. Problems/Opportunities Problem : 60-70% more food to support a growing population…. … ..under an uncertain and potentially unfriendly climate Countries and communities asking: What does climate change imply, what can I do to adapt, how much will it cost, how do I implement it? Opportunity : Massive amount of existing knowledge on technologies and practices for production, and increasing food system governance from local to global level

5. 0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1 Exacerbating the yield gap From Licker et al, 2010 Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

6. Exacerbating the yield gap Climate change will likely increase difficulties for resource-poor farmers, thereby increasing the yield gap

8. Input Providers Consumer Other Crops Structural Adaptation Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate. Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4 -certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure. Adaptive Adjustments Action: a) Shading b) Changing varietals c) Changing inputs Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption. Wholesale/Retail C4 Coffee Federation Coffee Producers a) Shading

9. Coffee Producers Transformational Adaptation Action: Migrate to keep farming Change farming systems (agricultural) Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural) Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.

10. Theme 1 Strategy Problem definition: DIAGNOSTIC BIO/ENV DATA SOCIO/ECO DATA MODELS CAP. BUILDING EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND TECHNOLOGIES (2012) (2013- 2014) 1.2 RESEARCH Strategies (breeding) -> CRPs 1.3 POLICY + INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES * Food system * Nat -> sub-national 1.1 COMMUNITY / FARMING SYSTEM + LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM STRATEGIES SCIENCE BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES OBJECTIVES System or crop level adaptation strategies (2013- 2015)

11. Approaches and impact pathways Data and evidence based strategies and solutions Climate science Agricultural modelling Observation using climate variability Analysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation Village to national level Setting priorities Development partners, Private Sector, Policy Outreach

13. TPE analysis Future systems Knowledge & intuition Ideotype concept Gene/allelediscovery Intelligent phenotyping designs Marker developmt. Modeling Marker validation, Integration, G x E x M Molecular breeding Intelligent choice of populations Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment CHANGE Con-ventional breeding Application Methodology Search Function, regulation, phénotype Strategic choices Diversity Panels Biparental Pops CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2: Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon

14. Current Climatic Suitability

15. Current Climatic Constraints

16. Future Suitability

17. Benefits of breeding options

18. >> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org) 20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites Effect of +1ºC warming on yield Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought Lobell et al. 2011

21. >> Example for beans

24. This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of SROI and to outline how SOCIAL RETURN ON INVESTMENT COMMUNITY BASED CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTING This PPT is designed to introduce the concept of Social Return on Investment (SROI) and to outline the pilot framework as applied in Kisumu Kenya in July of 2011. JUSTIFICATION | WHAT IS SROI? | WORKSHOP | SROI INTERVIEWS | ANALYSIS CONTENT BAR:

25. SROI - Kochiel, Kenya – July 2011 (All photos by Anna Wikman) RESOURCES The SROI Network: http://www.thesroinetwork.org/ >> The publication, “A guide to Social Return on Investment", has served as the guiding resource in developing this pilot series. The document has been embedded in this PPT for reference.

26. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge. Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge. What CCAFS output?

27. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture What CCAFS output?

28. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1 >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality What CCAFS output? Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials Why is it useful?

35. AN EXAMPLE OF USING THE ANALOGUE APPROACH TO LINK KNOWLEDGE AND DATA

37. Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine , Senegal Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm - Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C

39. Crop suitability – Kaffrine , Senegal

41. Zoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites CCAFS site with minimum value of dissimilarity with the climate of Kaffrine, Senegal = Tougou, Burkina Faso Best consistency between the 24 GCM’s = Fakara , Niger The current climate of Fakara is similar to the future projected climate in Kaffrine Fakara is the most likely analogue of Kaffrine

43. Change in climate, 2020 – Fakara, Niger Average Climate Change Trends: - Decrease in precipitation from 615 mm to 539.53 mm - Increase in main daily temperature range of 1.3°C

46. Agtrial database - Application Kontela, Mali is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal The sorghum yield data in Kontela, Mali could help us to know the future sorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Yield data available in the Agtrials database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/ Sorghum yield data Sorghum Variety K (kg/ha) N (kg/ha) P (kg/ha) Lime (kg/ha) Manure (kg/ha) Grain yield (t/ha) CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68 CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10 CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55 CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33 CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54 CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06 CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08

47. Agtrial database - Application Senegal Hombolo, Tanzania is another potential analogue to Kaffrine, Senegal Yield data available in the Agtrial database: http://www.agtrials.org:85/ The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzania could help us to know the future millet yield in Kaffrine, Senegal. Millet Yield data Variety name Grain Yield (t/ha) Nyamkombo 0.87 Okashana-2 1.09 PMV-2 0.78 PMV-3 0.86 SDMV89003 0.88 SDMV89007 0.82 SDMV90031 1.16 SDMV91018 0.91 SDMV92033 0.75 SDMV92038 0.82 SDMV95032 1.03 SDMV95033 0.93 SDMV95045 1.13 SDMV96075 0.89 SDMV97007 0.87 SDMV97011 0.87 TSPM91018 0.69 SDMV89005 0.90 SDMV92035 0.51 SDMV92037 1.01 SDMV95009 0.77 SDMV95014 0.68 SDMV95025 0.73 ZPMV92005 0.50 ZPMV94001 0.60

49. stay in touch www.ccafs.cgiar.org sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate