Current ENSO and IOD Conditions, Forecasts, and the Potential Impacts
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Christina Justice IFPRI-AMIS SEMINAR SERIES A Look at Global Rice Markets: Export Restrictions, El Niño, and Price Controls Co-organized by IFPRI and Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) OCT 18, 2023 - 9:00 TO 10:30AM EDT
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Current ENSO and IOD Conditions, Forecasts, and the Potential Impacts
- 1. Current ENSO and IOD Conditions, Forecasts, and the Potential Impacts Christina Justice University of Maryland Geographical Sciences Department; GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Lead; NASA Harvest Food Security & Early Warning Co-Lead
- 2. Overview • ENSO has been in El Niño phase since the end of May 2023, this is a strong event and forecast to last through March to May 2024 (80% chance) according to NOAA CPC • A positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is also underway and expected to peak in October and November and last until January according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology • These climatic conditions will induce precipitation changes across the world which are already materializing in areas • Crop yields will likely be impacted in several regions
- 3. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) • ENSO is currently in El Niño phase and is already a strong event that is forecast to reach peak intensity during November to January according to NOAA CPC • There is a 3 in 10 chance of a "historically strong" event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 • The current El Niño is likely to persist through March to May 2024 • After which, neutral conditions have an elevated probability and El Niño has a decreased probability of occurrence
- 4. Source: NOAA & CHC & FEWS NET El Niño and Precipitation
- 5. Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) November December January Issued 12 October 2023 • A positive IOD is currently present and can exacerbate the effects of El Niño
- 6. Source: NOAA & CHC & FEWS NET Positive IOD and Precipitation
- 7. Probabilistic forecast for most-likely Nov 2023-April 2024 rainfall tercile, based on April conditions. Source: WMO November to April Forecast Precipitation Anomaly
- 8. Probabilistic forecast for most-likely Nov2023- April 2023 rainfall tercile, based on October conditions. Source: WMO November to April Forecast Temperature Anomaly
- 9. Global Scale Historical El Niño Crop Yield Impacts • Crop yield impacts vary from one El Niño event to another • El Niño teleconnections typically offset one-another for maize and sorghum such that there is no discernable impact on global yields. • The average impact of El Niño on global wheat yields is slightly negative, however, ~40% of El Niños do not result in below expected wheat yields. • During El Niño years global rice yields tend to be ~0-2% below expected. • During El Niño years global soybean yields tend to range from -0.5% to +2.5% Historical crop yield conditions during El Niño events for wheat, maize, rice, soybeans, and sorghum. In countries with more than one crop affected, the color reflects the strongest effect.
- 10. Regional Crop Yield Impacts • Maize and Sorghum • On average, El Niños lead to above-average yields in the United States and Southeast South America, but below-average in India, China, and Southeast Africa. • Wheat • Yields likely to be above-average in the United States and Central Asia, but below- average in Australia, Southeast South America, India, China, Europe and North Africa. • Rice • Rice yields in the United States tend to be slightly above-average during El Niño years, while slightly below-average throughout South and Southeast Asia (most notably in India and Thailand) and Brazil.
- 11. Summary • Strong El Niño conditions are now currently present according to NOAA CPC • El Niño is forecast to reach its peak strength from November to January and persist through April-May-June of 2024 • A Positive IOD event is present and could exacerbate the effects of the ongoing El Niño in countries surrounding the Indian Ocean • Long range forecasts from the WMO MME for November to April shows a high likelihood of reduced rainfall over several key producing regions and above-average global temperatures • Crop yields are likely to be impacted both negatively and positively, depending on the crop and the region. • Heightened monitoring is necessary
- 12. Thank you
Editor's Notes
- ENSO has been in El Nino phase since the end of May 2023, this is now rated as a strong even that is forecast to last through March to May 2024 according to NOAA CPC The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently in a positive phase that is forecst to last through January according to the Austrailian Bureu of Meterology These developments will likley induce precipitation impacts across the world and in some areas these impacts are already materializing Crop yields are likely to be impacted in several regions which we will go in more detail on later in the presentation
- Strong El Niño conditions are now present according to NOAA CPC and is forecast to reach peak intensity during November to January There is a 3 in 10 chance of a historically strong event that rivals 2015-16 and 97-98 The stronger the El Niño, the more likely temperatures, precipitation, and other patterns will reflect the expected El Niño impacts El Niño is likely to persist through March - May of 2024 After which neutral conditions have an elevated probability and El Nino a decreased probability of occurance. The graphic on the right shows the ENSO forecast from August with El Nino forecast probabillty in red, la nina in blue and neutral conditions in grey
- This graphic shows the location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to El Niño events. Based upon observed precipitation during 22 El Niño events since 1950. El Niño events tend to increase the likelihood of above and below-average precipitation in many parts of the globe Typically El Niño events tend to enhance rainfall relative to average in Central Asia, southern North America, south-eastern South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China. Drier-than-average conditions tend to occur in Central America, the Caribbean, northern South America, parts of western and northern East Africa, Southern Africa, India, northern China, the Maritime Continent, and Australia.
- In addition to the current El Nino, The Indian Ocean Dipole or IOD is currently positive which started in August and is continuing to strengthen. The IOD index is +1.85 °C for the week ending 8 October. This is the sixth-highest weekly IOD index value since records for the Austrailian Bureau of Meterology SST dataset began in 2001, with all higher index values observed during the positive IOD of 2019. A positive IOD can exacerbate the drying effect of El Niño. The graphs shown are from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology from their October 12th update On the left are the forecasted monthly seas surface temperature anomalies for the IOD region On the right are the graphs show the average forecast value of the IOD index for each international model surveyed for the selected calendar month. As you can see, by January those forecasted numbers are starting to go down and even cross below the positive IOD index.
- This graphic shows the location and timing of likely above- and below-average precipitation related to positive IOD events. Based upon IOD events since 1960. Of note we can see the enhanced drying effects in Austrailia, Southern Southeast Asia and Southern Africa and enhanced wet effects across East Africa and parts of China
- Taking a look at long range forecasts we can already see some of these El Nino like precipiation anomalies start to materialize. Here is the current November to April six month precipitation forecast from the Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble from the WMO (World Metrological Organization). You can see that the forecast is already being influenced by the likely EL Nino and positive IOD from the areas circled in red that show high probabilities of having below-average precipitation and in blue showing areas with high probability of having above average rainfall
- Here is the current November to April six month temperature forecast from the Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble from the WMO (World Metrological Organization). We are expecting to have generally above normal temperatures across the globe through the next six months
- While crop yield impacts vary from one El Nino to another from a recent historical analysis of crop yields during El Nino events for the primary commodity crops undertaken by NOAA, NASA, USAID, and USCB CHC, we can look at what El Nino might mean for both Global and regional crop yields. What has been found is that at the global scale El Nino teleconnections typically offset one another for maize and sorghum so that there is no discernable impact on global yields. For wheat the average impact of El Nino is slightly negative however 40% of el ninos do not result in below expected wheat yields. During El Ninos global rice yields tend to be 0-2% below expected Global soybean yields tend to range from -.5 to +2.5%
- At the regional level however we have a very different story and crop yield impacts are more significant. For Maize and sorghum on average El Ninos lead to above average yields in the US and Southeast South America, but below average yields in India, China, Southeast Africa For Wheat above average yields are more likley in the US and Central Asia but below average in Austrailia, Southeast South America, India, China, Europe, and North Africa For Rice, yields tend to be slightly above averate during El Nino years while slightly below average throughout South and Southeast Asia (particularly in India and Thailand) and Brazil.
- In Summary Strong El Niño conditions are now currently present according to NOAA CPC and El Niño is forecast to reach its peak strength from November to January and persist through April-May-June of 2024 A Positive IOD event is present and could exacerbate the effects of the ongoing El Niño in countries surrounding the Indian Ocean Long range forecasts from the WMO MME for the next 6 months from November to April shows a high likelihood of reduced rainfall over several key producing regions and above-average global temperatures\Crop yields are likely to be impacted both negatively and positively, depending on the crop and the region. Heightened monitoring is necessary