"Challenges and Projections for Global Agriculture and Food Security" presented by Sherman Robinson at Regional Research Conference “Agricultural Transformation and Food Security in Central Asia”, April 8-9, 2014, Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

1. Challenges and Projections
for Global Agriculture
and Food Security
Sherman Robinson and the Impact Team
International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
April 2014

2. www.ifpri.org
Outline
 IFPRI’s baseline projections:
• Drivers of agricultural growth
• The IMPACT Model
• Data for Central Asia
• Base scenario results
 Climate challenges (IPCC 2014)
 AgMIP results (PNAS 2014)
 The role of technologies (Rosegrant et al. 2014)

3. www.ifpri.org
Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security
 Demand drivers
• Population growth: 9 billion people in 2050
• Urbanization: 50% in 2008, 78% in 2050
• Income growth
• Oil prices
• Biofuels and bioenergy
• Conservation and biodiversity
http://www.government.nl/dsc?c=getobject&s=
obj&objectid=101492

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 Rapid income growth and urbanization – effects
on diets and patterns of agricultural production
• Increased consumption of fruits and vegetables
• Rapid growth in meat consumption and demand for grains
for feed
• Change in diets to convenience foods, fast foods
• Higher food energy, more sugar, fats and oils
• Half of growth in grain demand will be for
Livestock feed
• Increased pressure on land and water
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Fast_food_(
282678968).jpg
Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security

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 Supply drivers
• Climate change
• Water and land scarcity
• Investment in infrastructure
• Investment in agricultural
research
• Policy
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ught18-
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Drivers of Agricultural Growth
and Food Security

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The IMPACT Model
 International Model for Policy Analysis of
Agricultural Commodities and Trade
 Global partial equilibrium model
• Food model
• Water models
• Crop models
• Malnutrition model

7. www.ifpri.org
IMPACT Model – Schematic

8.  Hydrology Model
 Water Basin
Management Model
 Water Stress Model
 Multimarket Model:
crops, sugar, oilseeds,
livestock/meat
 SPAM - Spatial
Production Allocation
Model
 Land-Use Model
 DSSAT Crop Models
 Biofuel Model
 Livestock Model
IMPACT Suite of Models
8

9. IMPACT version 3
159
• Countries
154
• Water
Basins
320
• Food
Production
Units
• 58 Agricultural
commodities
9

10. Production, Exports and Imports in
Central Asia
10

11. Central Asia’s Shares of
Global Cotton Exports
National Exports as a Percent of Global Exports
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12. Cotton Yields in Central Asia
12
Country Yield Ratio # Regions
Kazakhstan 80.3 7
Kyrgyzstan 95.6 2
Tajikistan 63.0 1
Turkmenistan 65.8 3
Uzbekistan 86.0 2
Ratio to global average (%), FAO Data, average for
2004-2006. Regions: water basins

13. www.ifpri.org
Change in World Prices of Cereals
between 2010 and 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

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Change in World Prices of Meats
between 2010 and 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

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World Crop Area
Baseline Projections
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

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World Crop Yields
Annual Average Growth Rate
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

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Sources of Cereal Production Growth
2010 - 2030
Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

19. What about climate change?
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 4(B), 31Mar2014
Global annual average surface temperature
23

20. Historical climate change impacts on
yields
1960-2013
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 SPM, Figure 2(C), 31Mar2014
24

21. Projected climate change impacts on
yields
Source: IPCC AR5 WG2 Ch7, Figure 7-7, 31Mar2014 25

22. www.ifpri.org
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate
change in 2050
Overall production change in shown existing areas: -11.2%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
(MIROC/A1B)

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Overall production change in shown existing areas: -37.3%
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations
Rainfed Maize: Impact of climate
change in 2080
(MIROC/A1B)

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Impact on International Food Prices
(2010=100)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Wheat Maize Rice
2010 2050 no CC 2050 CC
Average of four GCM, A1B, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios
Source: IFPRI IMPACT simulations

25. Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
The Agricultural Model
Intercomparison and Improvement
Project (AgMIP)
31

26. Price increase scenario results (%), 2010 – 2050,
Baseline economy and demography, IMPACT 2010
Minimum and maximum
effect from four climate
scenarios
33

27. Alternate perspectives on price scenarios 2004-2050,
OECD comparison 2011 (perfect mitigation)
IMPACT had substantially greater price
increases than LEITAP or ENVISAGE
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28. The role of agricultural
technologies
• Baseline to 2050, including
climate change
• Linked crop models and
economic models
• Assessed 11 technologies for
maize, rice and wheat
• Impacts on prices, yields, risk
of hunger
Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
35

29. Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Price effects of technologies
36

30. Source: Rosegrant et al. (2014)
Impacts on Food Security
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31. www.ifpri.org
Thank you for your attention
S.Robinson@cgiar.org