Climate change poses a serious threat to food security in Pakistan. Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change as rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events are negatively impacting crop yields and productivity. This is exacerbated by Pakistan's growing population. Wheat production is projected to decline significantly by 2050 due to the effects of climate change, reducing per capita availability. To ensure future food security, Pakistan must implement mitigation and adaptation strategies like developing new crop varieties and irrigation techniques that can better withstand the impacts of climate change.

1. CLIMATE CHANGE- A THREAT TO FOOD SECURITY IN PAKISTAN
Sadia Mubeen* and Tajamal Hussain*
Department of Agronomy
Faculty of Crop and Food Science
PMAS-Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi
Tajamalhussain4@gmail.com
Food is basic need of man as food security is vital for health of nation as well as for honorable
living among nations, food insecurity leads to conflicts and tyranny among people. Concerted
efforts are needed to enhance food grain production in the world and to investigate the problems
that are causing gaps in food production and food requirement. Pakistan is an agriculture based
country, 47% population of Pakistan is earning from this sector and contribution of this sector in
GDP is 24% (Economic Survey of Pakistan 2013). Pakistan earns 70% of its foreign exchange
from agriculture alone. Climate change is one of the most complex challenges that threatened
Pakistan’s agriculture. Agriculture productivity is being affected by a number of factors like
climate change including rainfall pattern, temperature hike, changes in sowing and harvesting
dates, water availability, evapotranspiration, and land suitability. All these factors have direct
influence on yield and agricultural productivity so Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector to
climate change. Growing season length of wheat and rice in Pakistan will be reduced as a result
of climate change with negative effects on yield. In 1949-50, the agriculture sector was
contributing 53 percent in the country's GDP, which dropped to 31 percent during 1980-81, and
during 2012-13 it has dropped drastically to only 21.4 percent. About 80 % of the global cereal
production comes from wheat, maize, and rice. Among the cereals, wheat is the largest (Akhtar
et al, 2010).Wheat (Triticum spp.) is a worldwide cultivated grass from the Fertile Crescent
region of the Near East.
In 2007 world production of wheat was 607 million tons, making it the third most-
produced cereal after maize (784 million tons) and rice (651 million tons). Pakistan is 9th
largest
wheat producing accounting for 3.04 % of the world wheat producing country. Wheat is our
staple food and cultivated on largest area in almost every part of the country. Its contribution in
GDP is 2.8%. (Economic Survey of Pakistan 2012-13). Moisture is limiting factor for wheat
production and per head wheat consumption in Pakistan is 120kg.The water available for the
cultivation of wheat in Pakistan is 26 MAF (million acre feet) which is still 28.6% lower than the
normal requirement of water (Rosegrant et al., 2008). Wheat productivity is also threatened by
climate variability in relation to food security. The most commonly acceptable concept of food
security is a phenomenon when all people at all times have physical, social and economic access
to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an
active and healthy life. The per capita per annum consumption of wheat during the last 18 years
ranges between 110 and 147.9 and averaged 128 Kg /per capita /per annum which is very close
to the international standard (126kg), currently per capita wheat availability is 198 kg per annum
and it would be 105 kg per annum in 2031 and 84 kg per annum in 2050 (fig.1). Wheat

2. 0
500
1000
1500
2000
2012 2021 2031 2041 2050
Production
Population
Availability
production decreases as a result of negative changes in climate conditions like high temperature
and low water availability during early stages of wheat.
Figure 1: Future projection of wheat production, population and per capita availability of wheat
over Punjab (IPCC, 2001).
There is decreasing trends in wheat production. Climate change has a great impact on
food security as it effects agriculture productivity. 27% of the Pakistani citizens are seriously
worried about not having adequate food to eat and similarly, 14% people don’t have access to
adequate clean drinking water according to climate Asia. Rising population threatens food
security. Wheat productivity is seriously threatened by climate change in future because it is
estimated that there would be 1.2 and 2.8o
C rise in maximum while 1.0 and 2.2o
C rise in
minimum temperature during early and midcentury in rice-wheat cropping system in Punjab,
Pakistan (Fig 2). In 2006 World Bank prepared a report named “Pakistan Strategic Country
Environmental Assessment" and according to this report in Environmental Sustainability Index
(ESI) country secured bottom position in South Asia. Egypt has three time more wheat
production as compared to Pakistan although both countries have same climatic conditions.
Pakistan is among three most affected countries since 2010 according to Global Climate Risk
Index. Due to fossil fuel burning and deforestation temperature has risen about 1o
C during last
century. There is a projection in increase in temperature between 1.4 to 5.8o
C by 2100. Heat
waves the byproduct of climate extremes are now more frequent and intense during the summer
over most parts of the world. They are not only responsible for deaths of living beings but can
also change the rate of evapotranspiration and soil moisture ultimately causing crop failure. The
projected increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves is expected to increase mortality
rates as a result of heat stress. Rising temperature cause glacial melt which will effect fresh water
flow ultimately resulting in adverse effect on food security.

3. -100
400
900
1400
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
rainfall(mm)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
T min.
T max
Fig.2 Temp. Prevailing during last five years 2008-2013
Flooding is most prominent sign of climate change which ultimately cause poverty.
During last decades due to heavy and repetitive flooding Pakistan economy has been facing
serious problems. Two consecutive floods
were experienced by Pakistan in 2010 &
2014. These floods caused increase in
malnutrition and hunger that resulted in rise
in overall poverty. Losses during 2010
includes crop losses like cotton, sugarcane
,rice, pulses and wheat, livestock loss and it
also effect GDP about 3%. In 2008-2009
there were drought conditions as rainfall
was less than optimum level and in 2010
and 2013 rainfall more than optimum level
had cause flood in different parts of Punjab. Fig.3: Rainfall scenario (2008-2013)
In addition to flood another symptom of climate change is droughts due to lack of
rainfall. Pakistan faced extreme famine in 2013 in Thar Desert which had caused many deaths
especially 390 children as well as losses to economy as animals started dying in Thar Desert in
October 2013. This famine extended up to 2014 and caused more deaths in first three months of
year. Recently 3 more casualties occurred due to malnutrition. Persistent drought in Pakistan
lowered the country’s GDP because of poor performance of agriculture sector. Continuous spells
of droughts affected Pakistan’s economy heavily especially in Sind and Baluchistan. The drought
in these areas has reduced the river flows, resulting in drying up of the irrigation canals, leading
to severe agricultural deprivation. Hence droughts cause general deficiency of food and water for
people. Climate change is also disturbing the seasonal monsoon of March leading to serious

4. challenges to sustainable crop production. According to the Asian Development Bank, more than
10 million people have been displaced in Pakistan over the last two years due to these climate
related disasters. Coastal areas of Pakistan are most vulnerable to climate change, including
Indus Delta, with rising sea surface especially due to SSTS and atmospheric water vapors
causing an increase in cyclone intensity and rainfall.
The agriculture in the whole of the Indus Valley is under threat, resulting in direct and
indirect impacts on agriculture that could cost billions of dollars. Coal burning in order to meet
our energy demand is very dangerous to environment, although it is cheaper source of fuel and
also it provides jobs to many people and it can go long to boosting industrial production but it
should be kept in mind that it would increase health hazards and air pollution. Investments in
renewable energy resources will not only give Pakistan a better and cleaner alternative, they will
also enable technology transfer that can fundamentally alter the shape of our economy. Climate
change also results in rising of carbon dioxide that will definitely cause potential adverse impacts
like rise in sea level, floods and storms and especially in change in rainfall patterns, ultimately
this will leads to reduction in crop growth per capita availability of food. Although Pakistan itself
contributes very little to the overall GHG emissions, still it remains one of the most severely hit
countries of the world due to global warming and climate change.
To cope with problematic scenario of climate change, insurance of food security and to
prevent scarcity of food like in Thar there must be some serious mitigation strategies like
management, change in sowing time and introduction of new genotypes are need of time to get
sustainable yield under rainfed agriculture as issue of concern is food security first should be
minimized the gap between wheat production and requirement. Authentic information about the
climate change as it affects wheat production as well as food security is necessary. Develop new
and innovative farm production practices, including early maturing and late maturing crop
varieties and irrigation techniques is also important. Developing crop cultivars with novel traits
could help agriculture adaptive to climate change. Developing and introducing regulatory
mechanisms to manage and store summer water overflows new reservoirs would be needed.