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Role of Agriculture and Government
in Rural Development
Prof. John Mellor
John Mellor Associates
Q.1 ONLY 21 PERCENT OF GDP
• Wrong question? With the extraordinary Indus Basin
resource grossly underutilized the rate of...
Q.2 IS PAKISTANS GROWTH PRO-POOR
• NO!
• Poverty reduction driven by the Small Commercial
Farmer (25% of rural households ...
Q.3 20 YEAR RURAL VISION
• Not appropriate from me, but
• In all high population density rural areas every home
within one...
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John Mellor - Role of Agriculture and Government in Rural Development

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PSSP Third Annual Conference "Agricultural and Natural Resource Issues and Policy Reform"
Islamabad, Pakistan
April 14, 2015

Published in: Education
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John Mellor - Role of Agriculture and Government in Rural Development

  1. 1. Role of Agriculture and Government in Rural Development Prof. John Mellor John Mellor Associates
  2. 2. Q.1 ONLY 21 PERCENT OF GDP • Wrong question? With the extraordinary Indus Basin resource grossly underutilized the rate of return is very high. • With fast growth (not now!) in urban industry accelerating agr. growth from 2.2% to 5.3% adds 0.9% points to the growth rate (15%) and 1.6% points to the employment growth rate (67%).Drives poverty reduction • Improve rural roads (and electricity) are essential to agricultural growth – but they are essential to social services to the continuing to grow and large rural population. • Small Commercial Farmers (64% of production) require public services. Targets: 10% of Government expenditure; 3% of Agr. GDP to research.
  3. 3. Q.2 IS PAKISTANS GROWTH PRO-POOR • NO! • Poverty reduction driven by the Small Commercial Farmer (25% of rural households 65% of agr. production)rapidly increasing income (it isn’t happening now)and spending half that on the employment intensive, non-tradable rural non-farm sector (75% of the rural population, little income from farming, 80% of the poor.) • Urban industrial growth does not reduce poverty. • On Safety nets do not take resources away from growth by the SCF.
  4. 4. Q.3 20 YEAR RURAL VISION • Not appropriate from me, but • In all high population density rural areas every home within one mile of an all weather road and every home electrified. • Every child at least starts secondary school education • Agricultural incomes growing at 5% per year. • Less than 5% of the rural population relying on safety nets to keep above the poverty line. • Livestock (and livestock feed) and Horticulture comprising over 80% of agricultural output

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