Channing Arndt COUNTRY WORKSHOP The Knowledge Lab on Climate Resilient Food Systems: An analytical support facility to achieve the SDGs Co-Organized by IFPRI and AGRA FEB 7, 2019 - 08:30 AM TO 05:55 PM EAT

1. The Future of African Agriculture
Assessing Country Resilience
Knowledge Lab for Climate Resilient Food Systems
Prepared by the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Group
Environment and Production Technology Division
International Food Policy Research Institute
7 February 2019

2. Some Key Drivers
2

3. African Population in Global Perspective
(UN medium variant forecast)
3

4. Key Drivers: Sub-Saharan Africa Population and Income Scenarios
4

5. Key Drivers: Climate Change
5

6. Takeaway Points
1. Africa is globally important and becoming much more so.
• Rising populations and incomes combined with high food shares and relatively high
income elasticities of demand make Africa particularly important for food and
agriculture.
2. While differences across population, emissions and atmospheric
concentrations of GHGs, and income scenarios are present by
2050, they become enormous by 2100.
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7. Recent Trends in African Agriculture
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8. Africa has the fastest growth in cereal production of any continent
since the early 1990s
8

9. The growth in African cereal production over the last
decade was helped by high area growth
Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2018).
Average for 2012-2015
Annualized growth
rates 2002-2005 to
2012-2015
Region Tons Hectares
Yield
(kg /
hect)
Product
ion
Har-
vested
area Yield
World 2,737,337,452 716,115,547 3,822 2.32 0.58 1.74
Africa 180,059,533 112,607,418 1,599 3.12 1.35 1.77
Americas 698,420,833 128,128,299 5,451 2.35 0.48 1.86
Asia 1,334,600,630 337,212,821 3,958 2.61 0.67 1.95
Europe 484,461,045 119,481,865 4,055 1.33 -0.12 1.45
Oceania 39,795,411 18,685,144 2,130 1.53 -0.12 1.66
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10. With Northern Africa excluded, SSA cereal yields rose at
2.1% per year, higher than any other continent
Average for 2012-2015
Annualized growth
rates 2002-2005 to
2012-2015
Region or country Tons Hectares
Yield
(kg /
hect)
Product
ion
Har-
vested
area Yield
Africa 180,059,540 112,607,422 1,599 3.12 1.35 1.77
Sub-Saharan Africa 141,451,409 99,644,682 1,420 3.59 1.47 2.12
Northern Africa 38,608,131 12,962,740 2,978 1.56 0.47 1.09
Eastern Africa 47,959,387 31,766,940 1,510 5.43 1.74 3.68
Middle Africa 9,417,656 9,270,609 1,016 5.03 3.41 1.62
Southern Africa 28,926,097 12,339,261 2,344 2.62 -0.60 3.22
Western Africa 55,148,269 46,267,872 1,192 2.49 1.55 0.94
Source: FAOSTAT (FAO 2018).
10

11. Sub-Saharan Africa is essentially maize self-sufficient, but
Northern Africa imports 60% of its maize
Source: FAOSTAT Commodity Balance
This is the first time since the mid-1980s that SSA has been essentially
food self-sufficient in maize
Continent Production Net Exports
Net
Exports /
Produc-
tion
Net
Imports /
Demand
Food /
Demand
Feed /
Demand
Other /
Demand
Loss /
Demand
Africa 65,601,552 -11,730,873 NA 15.7% 55.8% 31.5% 1.3% 9.0%
Northern Africa 7,714,343 -11,587,846 NA 60.0% 34.9% 54.3% 2.0% 7.9%
Sub-Saharan Africa 57,887,209 -143,027 NA 0.3% 63.1% 23.5% 1.1% 9.4%
Eastern Africa 16,480,248 -463,143 NA 3.1% 75.7% 11.5% 0.1% 8.7%
Middle Africa 3,190,925 -423,214 NA 12.7% 61.1% 20.5% 0.0% 12.1%
Southern Africa 21,457,518 1,038,063 4.8% NA 62.2% 29.2% 0.3% 6.7%
Western Africa 16,758,518 -294,733 NA 1.7% 53.3% 27.9% 3.2% 12.7%

12. Maize Yield Gaps
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Source: http://ebrary.ifpri.org/utils/getfile/collection/p15738coll2/id/128747/filename/128958.pdf
There is also substantial scope for area expansion, including irrigated area.

13. Tanzania: Sesame seed production and yield
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
Production,000tons
Harvestedarea,000ha
Area harvested, 000 ha Production, 000 tons
0.3 0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
1.0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1961-70 1971-80 1981-90 1991-00 2001-10 2010-16
Yield,tons/ha
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14. Takeaway Points
3. African agriculture has become much more dynamic in recent decades.
4. Regional differences are important.
5. Ample scope exists to expand production, especially in SSA, through
yield increase, area increase, and/or irrigation expansion making Africa
globally important in terms of global food supply.
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15. Quantitative Foresight Modeling Approach
and Key Assumptions
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16. Modeling Approach:
Quantitative Foresight Modeling – IFPRI’s IMPACT Model
 Linked climate, water, crop and economic
models
 Estimates of production, consumption,
hunger, and environmental impacts
Adapted from: Robinson et al. (2015) "The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade
(IMPACT); Model description for version 3". IFPRI Discussion Paper. IFPRI: Washington, DC.
16
Projections
out to 2050

17. Key Assumptions:
Scenario set up for foresight modeling to address key dimensions
across population and income
Primary scenarios
 REFERENCE:
• Climate future follows RCP8.5-HadGEM
• Population follows UN medium variant
• Per capita GDP matched to middle-of-the-road SSP2 projections including
feedback from a broader economy model of climate change impacts
 PESSIMISTIC (same as REFERENCE except):
• Africa population follows UN high variant
• African per capita GDP reduced by 10%
 OPTIMISTIC (same as REFERENCE except):
• Africa population follows UN low variant
• African per capita GDP increased by 10%
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18. Key Drivers: Climate Change
18

19. Key Assumptions:
Scenario set up for foresight modeling to address key dimensions
across population and income
Primary scenarios
 REFERENCE:
• Climate future follows RCP8.5-HadGEM
• Population follows UN medium variant
• Per capita GDP matched to SSP2 projections including feedback from a
broader economy model of climate change impacts
 PESSIMISTIC (same as REFERENCE except):
• Africa population follows UN high variant
• African per capita GDP growth reduced by 10%
 OPTIMISTIC (same as REFERENCE except):
• Africa population follows UN low variant
• African per capita GDP growth increased by 10%
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20. Key Drivers: Sub-Saharan Africa Population and Income Scenarios
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Note that, in GDP terms, the scenarios offset. (GDP=GDPpc*Pop)

21. Another Key Driver: Agricultural Productivity
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Productivity growth has two
components:
1) An intrinsic productivity
growth rate (IPR).
2) A yield response factor
contingent on prices.

22. Key Driver: Agricultural Productivity
22
Productivity growth has two
components:
1) An intrinsic productivity
growth rate (IPR). Fixed
across scenarios.
2) A yield response factor
contingent on prices.
Varies endogenously by
scenario.

23. 23ASF F&V STAPLES CASH
REFERENCE
RANK 2010 2050
SSA 1 Wheat Vegetables
2 Rice Tropical Fruit
3 Dairy Beef
4 Vegetables Dairy
5 Tropical Fruit Banana
Top 5 net imports by value (sum of individual countries’ net imports,
includes intra-African and international trade)
REFERENCE
RANK 2010 2050
SSA 1 Cacao Vegetables
2 Tropical Fruit Yams
3 Beef Cacao
4 Vegetables Tropical Fruit
5 Cotton Plantain
Top 5 net exports by value:
individual countries regional aggregate
REFERENCE
RANK 2010 2050
SSA 1 Cacao Cacao
2 Cotton Other
3 Other Cotton
4 Beef Tea
5 Tea Groundnut

24. Agricultural Trade Takeaway Points
6. Income growth and urbanization drive demand, production, and trade—
dominating climate change effects to 2050.
7. Higher value products become much more important in production and
trade with intra-regional trade playing a large role.
8. Traditional cash crop exports (cacao etc.) continue to dominate SSA’s
agricultural exports to the rest of the world.
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25. 25
SSA
Maize production, consumption, and net trade (million metric tons)
Largely used for human consumption in SSA, but also growing needs
for supplying feed markets
- Centers of bubbles show indexed area (horizontal) and
yield (vertical) growth to 2050 in Africa for REFERENCE
(2010 = 1.0)
- Bubble sizes scaled to total regional production in 2050
- One-to-one line (red) for reference
Expansion of
maize production
dominated by
yield growth

26. 26
SSA
Rice production, consumption, and net trade (million metric tones)
A major grain of increasing interest to African consumers AND
producers
- Centers of bubbles show indexed area (horizontal) and
yield (vertical) growth to 2050 in Africa for REFERENCE
(2010 = 1.0)
- Bubble sizes scaled to total regional production in 2050
- One-to-one line (red) for reference
Expansion of
rice production
dominated by
yield growth
13 December 2018

27. Population undernourished for Sub-Saharan Africa (PoU*Pop)
13 December 2018 27

28. Staples Production Takeaway Points
9. Staple crop production expands driven principally by yield growth
(despite the strongest possible climate change scenario) but also
substantial area expansion.
10.This growth in staple crop production is not enough to (i) satisfy demand
growth resulting in a negative net trade balance and (ii) drive down the
absolute number of people at risk of hunger.
13 December 2018 28

29. 10 Takeaway Points
1. Africa is globally important in food demand and becoming much more so.
2. Differences across scenarios for population, income, and climate become enormous by 2100.
3. African agriculture has become much more dynamic in recent decades.
4. Regional differences are important.
5. Ample scope exists to make Africa globally important in food production.
6. Income growth and urbanization dominate climate change effects to 2050.
7. Higher value products become more important in production and trade with intra-regional trade playing
a large role.
8. Traditional cash crop exports continue to dominate SSA’s agricultural exports to the rest of the world.
9. Staple crop production expands driven principally by yield growth but also substantial area expansion.
10. This growth in production will not satisfy demand or drive down the number of undernourished people.
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