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Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: 
Similarities and differences 
@John Englander 
Newport, RI 
December 10, 2014
FEMA photo 
Storm events….“Sandy”
one month after “Sandy”, the 
“no name” Thanksgiving storm of 2012
Not a Future Problem 
saltwater on the streets 
every month at peak tide
King Tide not Florida to replace 
next FLL
Flooding has many variations
Flooding due to: 
1. Storms 
2. Extreme Tides 
3. Rising Sea Level 
4. Subsidence 
5. Runoff / Downstream 
6. [Erosion]
Flooding due to: 
1. Storms 
2. Extreme Tides 
3. Rising Sea Level 
4. Subsidence 
5. Runoff / Downstream 
6. [Erosion] 
Different 
 Drivers 
 Predictability 
 Magnitude 
 Permanence 
 Impact areas
Sea Level 
Today 
Elevation 
Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Tides and Waves 
SLR 
Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation (!) 
Episodic Risk Factors 
Long-Term Risk Factors 
William O’Reilly / Scripps Institution of Oceanography
See Level change is 
“new.” 
Barely changed in 
5,000 years. 
Last time it was 
higher was 120,000 
years ago.
@johnenglander
20,000 Years Ago 
Sea Level
When all ice melts 
Present Sea Level 
47th Floor 
Miami Tower 
“Bank of America” 
30th Floor 
212 ft (65 m) 
390 ft (120 m) 
20,000 years ago 
Last Ice Age 
@ johnenglander.net
© 2006 John Englander
@johnenglander
@johnenglander
Greenland = 
24 feet of SLR 
Antarctica = 
186 feet of SLR
© 2006 John Englander
Last half century 
continues the 
pattern: 
CO2, global 
temperature, and 
sea level are all 
rising
By 2100, 
new IPCC Projections: 
“10 – 32 Inches of SLR” 
#’s do not include the 
“wild card” amplifiers: 
• Methane 
• West Antarctic glaciers
Methane becoming larger factor 
86 x CO2 warming force per unit / 20 years
Takeaways 
1. Storms + tides + SLR = vulnerability now 
2. After years of stability, SL is rising and 
will continue for centuries 
3. We can slow SLR, but not stop it 
4. The trend can be your friend 
5. Know your risk, plan, and adapt
Sacramento, CA is 80 miles from the 
Pacific but has extreme vulnerability to 
rising sea level and over a thousand miles 
of earthen levees.
Rotterdam Multipurpose Urban Dikes Concept
Water Plaza
UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE
Beach Resort Scheveningen: Dike-under-Boulevard concept 
Benelux Flood Defence System KWS (NL)
Noordwijk: ‘Dike-in-Dune’ concept 
Boulevard 
New dike 
Additional dune 
Benelux Flood Defence System KWS (NL)
Designing for future generations… 
…is our responsibility, and a great 
opportunity
RECAP 
1. Storms, Extreme Tides, and SLR are 
different. 
2. SLR will have different effects in different 
places. 
3. Projections differ and change. Plan for first 3 
feet of SLR, asap……more to come 
4. Don’t confuse planning for SLR with reducing 
GHG and other efforts at being “sustainable” 
and green.
RI @ johnenglander.net 
www.johnenglander.net 
Amazon.com: print and Kindle 
Twitter: @johnenglander 
Facebook
Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: Similarities and differences

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Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: Similarities and differences

  • 1. Rising Seas and Extreme Storms: Similarities and differences @John Englander Newport, RI December 10, 2014
  • 2. FEMA photo Storm events….“Sandy”
  • 3.
  • 4. one month after “Sandy”, the “no name” Thanksgiving storm of 2012
  • 5.
  • 6. Not a Future Problem saltwater on the streets every month at peak tide
  • 7. King Tide not Florida to replace next FLL
  • 8.
  • 9. Flooding has many variations
  • 10. Flooding due to: 1. Storms 2. Extreme Tides 3. Rising Sea Level 4. Subsidence 5. Runoff / Downstream 6. [Erosion]
  • 11. Flooding due to: 1. Storms 2. Extreme Tides 3. Rising Sea Level 4. Subsidence 5. Runoff / Downstream 6. [Erosion] Different  Drivers  Predictability  Magnitude  Permanence  Impact areas
  • 12. Sea Level Today Elevation Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Tides and Waves SLR Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation (!) Episodic Risk Factors Long-Term Risk Factors William O’Reilly / Scripps Institution of Oceanography
  • 13. See Level change is “new.” Barely changed in 5,000 years. Last time it was higher was 120,000 years ago.
  • 14.
  • 15.
  • 17. 20,000 Years Ago Sea Level
  • 18.
  • 19. When all ice melts Present Sea Level 47th Floor Miami Tower “Bank of America” 30th Floor 212 ft (65 m) 390 ft (120 m) 20,000 years ago Last Ice Age @ johnenglander.net
  • 20.
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. © 2006 John Englander
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28. Greenland = 24 feet of SLR Antarctica = 186 feet of SLR
  • 29. © 2006 John Englander
  • 30.
  • 31.
  • 32.
  • 33.
  • 34.
  • 35. Last half century continues the pattern: CO2, global temperature, and sea level are all rising
  • 36. By 2100, new IPCC Projections: “10 – 32 Inches of SLR” #’s do not include the “wild card” amplifiers: • Methane • West Antarctic glaciers
  • 37.
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41. Methane becoming larger factor 86 x CO2 warming force per unit / 20 years
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45. Takeaways 1. Storms + tides + SLR = vulnerability now 2. After years of stability, SL is rising and will continue for centuries 3. We can slow SLR, but not stop it 4. The trend can be your friend 5. Know your risk, plan, and adapt
  • 46.
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49. Sacramento, CA is 80 miles from the Pacific but has extreme vulnerability to rising sea level and over a thousand miles of earthen levees.
  • 50.
  • 54. Beach Resort Scheveningen: Dike-under-Boulevard concept Benelux Flood Defence System KWS (NL)
  • 55. Noordwijk: ‘Dike-in-Dune’ concept Boulevard New dike Additional dune Benelux Flood Defence System KWS (NL)
  • 56.
  • 57. Designing for future generations… …is our responsibility, and a great opportunity
  • 58. RECAP 1. Storms, Extreme Tides, and SLR are different. 2. SLR will have different effects in different places. 3. Projections differ and change. Plan for first 3 feet of SLR, asap……more to come 4. Don’t confuse planning for SLR with reducing GHG and other efforts at being “sustainable” and green.
  • 59. RI @ johnenglander.net www.johnenglander.net Amazon.com: print and Kindle Twitter: @johnenglander Facebook