Learn the facts about climate change in Rhode Island, existing impacts, and near-term projections presented by Austin Becker, URI College of Environmental Life Sciences

1. Climate Change Impacts for Rhode Island’s Coast:
A Summary of the Science
Austin Becker
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Asst. Professor of Coastal Planning, Policy, and Design
University of Rhode Island
Staying Afloat: Adapting Waterfront Businesses to Rising Seas and Extreme Storms
2014 Ronald C. Baird Sea Grant Science Symposium
Dec. 10. 2014
Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI
(05/01/2014)
USACE/NOAA Low
Rate
USACE Int, NOAA
Int Low
NOAA Int High Rate
USACE High Rate
NOAA High Rate
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
0
Year
RSLC in feet (NAVD88)

2. Overview
• Recent high‐water events around RI
–2010 floods
–Sandy
–A 2014 moon tide
• Historical trends
• Climate change projections
• STORMTOOLS inundation maps
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3. 2010 –Warwick Sewage Treatment Plant
3 Credit: RIDOT

4. 2010 –Warwick Showcase Cinemas
4 Credit: RIDOT

5. 2010 –Warwick Mall
5 Credit: RIDOT

6. 2010 – I‐95 Warwick
6 Credit: RIDOT

7. 2010 ‐ Traffic
7 Credit: RIDOT

8. October 29, 2013
Sandy – Wickford
Credit: Melissa Devine

9. Sandy – Matunuck
October 29, 2013 Credit: Melissa Devine 9

10. Sandy – Narragansett
October 29, 2013 Credit: CRC 10

11. Sandy –Westerly
October 29, 2013 Credit: CRC 11

12. Sandy – Block Island
October 29, 2013 Credit: RIDOT 12

13. 2014 – High Tide North Kingstown
NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine

14. 2014 – High Tide Wickford
NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine

15. 2014 – High Tide Wickford
NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine

16. 2014 – High Tide in Wickford
NK Town Dock‐ August 13, 2014; Photo Credit: M.Devine

17. Historic storm surge heights in PVD
Name Date Cat $ Damage Surge height
above MLLW
1938 9/21/38 ? 100 17.5
1944 9/14/44 ? 2 11.7
Carol 8/31/54 3 90 16.5
Gloria 9/27/85 2 20 9
Bob 8/21/91 2 115 10
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18. HEIGHT NOW
Adapted from:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/
sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8452660%20Newport,%20RI
Boothroyd 2013
Rate of Rise 1930-2013
10.8 +/- .7 inch/100 yr

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Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI
(05/01/2014)
USACE/NOAA Low
Rate
USACE Int, NOAA
Int Low
NOAA Int High Rate
USACE High Rate
NOAA High Rate
10
8
6
4
2
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
0
Year
RSLC in feet (NAVD88)
http://www.corpsclimate.us/ccaceslcurves.cfm

20. Sea Level is Rising Faster
along the Northeast US Coast
Figure 1 from Hotspot of accelerated sea‐level rise on the Atlantic coast of North America
Asbury Sallenger et al., 2012 Nature Climate Change doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE1597

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Giuliano, Lenny and Valee, David Unpublished Working Pape

22. Tropical Cyclone Projections
Due to Climate Change
Frequency: Large uncertainties remain. Some computer
models indicate either reduction (Knutson et al (2013) or
increase in TC frequency (Emanuel, 2013). We have very low
confidence in projected changes in individual basins.
Intensity: The frequency of the most intense (rare/high‐impact)
storms will more likely than not increase by a
substantially larger percentage in some basins (Knutson et al
(2013), Emanuel (2013), Bender et al (2010).
Rainfall: Rates are likely to increase. The projected
magnitude is on the order of +20% (Knutson et al. (2013),
Bender et al (2013)

23. Climate change challenges
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Relative Sea Level Change Projections - Gauge: 8452660, Newport, RI
(05/01/2014)
USACE/NOAA Low
Rate
USACE Int, NOAA
Int Low
NOAA Int High Rate
USACE High Rate
NOAA High Rate
10
8
6
4
2
0
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
2110
2120
Year
RSLC in feet (NAVD88)
Doubling of Cat 4 and 5 tropical storms
1‐in‐100 year storm event of today
Sea levels to rise 0.75 – 1.9 meters by 2100
1‐in‐3 year storm event of 2100
Inland flooding
http://www.cargolaw.com/2008nightmare_j
axcrane.html
Photograph: Guy Reynolds/Dallas
Morning News/AP
(Bender et al. 2010; Grinsted et al. 2013; Rahmstorf 2010; Emanuel 2013; IPCC 2012; Tebaldi et al. 2012)

24. STORM TOOLS Simplified Flooding
Web Based Mapping Viewer Access
http://edc.maps.arcgis.com/home/
Type in “scaled SLR” in the search window to connect
to the maps
•25, 50, 100 year recurrence
(probability) of flooding based on
historic record
•High Tides plus 1,2,3, 5 foot SLR
•Storm events plus 2’ of SLR

27. Barrington, 100 Acre Cove: 100 Year Flood, 5’ SLR

28. STORM TOOLS Simplified Flooding
Web Based Mapping Viewer Access
http://edc.maps.arcgis.com/home/
Type in “scaled SLR” in the search window to connect
to the maps
Contacts for STORM TOOLS:
Chris Damon, URI Environmental
Data Center, cdamon@edc.uri.edu
Malcolm Spaulding, URI Ocean
Engineering, spaulding@egr.uri.edu

29. Austin Becker
abecker@uri.edu
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With thanks to: Isaac Ginnis, Malcolm Spaulding, Jon Boothroyd,
Clara Rubin, Pam Rubinoff, Teresa Crean

30. 21st Century Climate Warming Projected
Changes in Atlantic Hurricane Frequency
Cat 4+5 frequency:
81% increase, or 10%
per decade
Estimated net impact
of these changes on
damage potential:
+28%
Colored bars show changes for the18 model CMIP3 ensemble (27 seasons); dots show range
of changes across 4 individual CMIP models (13 seasons).
Source: Bender et al., Science, 2010.

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36. MOMS‐ Cat 4 storm with 1.52m (5 ft) tides (SL3R6 )

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Petroleum
Facilities
Wastewater
Treatment Plant
LPG
Facility