Presentation by Dr. Jim Guldin to support the Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change (ASCC) J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center Workshop held January 12-14, 2016

1. Dr. Jim Guldin
Supervisory Ecologist and Project Leader,
Ecology and Management of Southern Pines
SRS-4159, Southern Research Station
US Forest Service
Hot Springs,Arkansas
One stand at a time—
silvicultural options
for stand-level response
to climate change

2. 1.3 Billion
MORE people
since 2000!
1.3 Billion—
estimated
population on
Earth in 1860

3. Bottom line--few of our problems on Earth, including
agriculture and natural resources, will be easier to
handle at projected global populations.
Saturday at the beach, Shandong Province, China - Reuters

4. In the United States:
2000: 281,421,906 people
2010: 308,745,538 people
Source; US Census, 2010

5. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Arkansas Louisiana Oklahoma Texas
Population(millions)
Popn 2000
Popn 2010
In the South-Central US: 20% increase in
10 years!
Source; US Census, 2010

6. TEXAS COUNTIES
Population
gain, %
2000-2010
ROCKWALL 81.8
WILLIAMSON 69.1
FORT BEND 65.1
HAYS 61
COLLIN 59.1
MONTGOMERY 55.1
DENTON 53
GUADALUPE 47.8
KAUFMAN 44.9
KENDALL 40.7
MOTLEY -15.1
COCHRAN -16.2
MARTIN -16.9
FLOYD -17.1
FOARD -17.6
STERLING -17.9
CULBERSON -19.4
KING -19.7
COTTLE -21
US Census data; 2010 report
The US population is
increasingly urban and
suburban, not rural

7. Little thought has been given to how, and what kind of,
stand-level silvicultural practices would be appropriate to
apply in an environment of climate change, and how a
forester might apply them.
Ernest Lovett and the late Dr. John Gray
inspect the 2004 harvest at Crossett EF

8. A PRACTICAL approach to managing
southern forests for climate change:
1)We work with forest stands currently
being managed or landowners willing to
start
2)We work on resistance, resilience,
restoration, rehabilitation, and recovery
3)We do what we know—modify
existing silvicultural practices that will
work in a changing climate.

9. First, do no harm—
• Anything done in the name of
climate change should also be
robust in the context of the
current climate and stand
conditions

10. • Why? The most difficult year
for a new age cohort will be
the first growing season

11. Secondly,
How many silvicultural systems
are carried from establishment
at year 0 to rotation age R??

12. IMO--not many!
Industry land—silvicultural systems
change every time land
ownership changes
Exceptions—when rotation age is
less than length of ownership

13. The sale of forest industry lands to
TIMO-REIT ownership has been the
most recent of many recent changes
on the ‘forest industry’ land base.

14. NIPF land—Nearly no examples,
because of estate tax issues--
landowner’s life is far less than
age to maturity of timber
The hard truth on NIPF lands-
long-term management plans
only rarely survive the ownership
transition from parents to
children

15. The few examples
involve estate
planning into
irrevocable
easements,
trusts and
foundations
e.g.,
Pioneer Forest,
central Missouri

16. Govt land, such as National
Forests?
The challenge is ‘decennial
micromanagement’! Every 10-yr
compartment exam redraws
stand boundaries and changes
existing silvicultural plans.
The exception-
Significant work for habitat
restoration of endangered
species

17. A classic example—the shortleaf pine-
bluestem management area on the
Ouachita NF, dedicated to RCWs

18. IMO:
At the most, 5-10% of the
200MM ac of southern forestland
is managed under the same
silvicultural system from year 0
to maturity.

19. IMO:
Silvicultural practice in the future
is the art and science of practices
that
-improve stand conditions in the
short term, and
-create, not limit, options for
current or future landowners in
the long term

20. IMO:
This can be developed into an
empirical decision model for
silvicultural practices that are
resistant, resilient, or robust in
the context of changing
climatic conditions.

21. Bottom line—
Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems, regardless of the
stage of the extant silvicultural
system in light of the condition
of the current stand.

22. Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems
Elements of
diversity
Elements of the silvicultural system
Regeneration
treatments
Intermediate
treatments
Reproduction
cutting
methods
Genetic
diversity High Low Low
Species
diversity Moderate Moderate Low
Structural
diversity Low Moderate Moderate

23. Thoughts parallel concepts of forest
sustainability
 The first principle of sustainability at
the stand level–
 Secure regeneration of the desired
species after reproduction cutting
Regeneration treatments

24. Genetic diversity
Diversity of naturally-regenerated stock
-seed-origin
-sprout origin
Diversity of artificially-regenerated stock
-planted
-direct-seeded

25. Natural
regeneration
Sprout originSeed origin
Post-harvest
establishment
Advanced
regeneration
Stump
sprouts
Seedling
sprouts
Requires choices to optimize genetic and
species diversity of natural regeneration
cohort
More diverse Less diverse

26. Natural regeneration from seed
• Genetically variable, result of
outcrossing
• Rely on natural seedfall or advance
growth from seedfall
• Especially important in the oaks
• Seedling sprouts perfectly acceptable
for genetic diversity if developed
from advance growth of seed origin

27. Natural regeneration--stump sprouts
 Genetically
identical to
parent trees
 Adapted to local
site conditions
 May not be the
best model
under changing
climatic
conditions

28. Biggest
implications—
oak regeneration
May need to
increase reliance
on seed-origin
seedling sprout
advance growth

29. Artificial regeneration—planting (pines)
First year is toughest for survival:
Plant stock appropriate for the
expected conditions
Site prepare for first-year survival;
containerized stock?

30. Artificial regeneration—planting (pines)
 Unlike traditional practice—identify
planting stock origin and ensure genetic
diversity in seedlings being planted on a
given site
 Plant mixtures of species, such as
longleaf, loblolly and shortleaf in east
Texas sites?

31. Direct seeding
Same arguments as planting stock
from the genetic perspective—ensure
diversity of seed
Could be used :
If a species absent from the site
Where natural seedfall is unlikely
to occur
To develop mixtures with
multiple species or genetic stock

32. Moving planting stock?
Guidance found in the old Southwide Pine
Seed Source Study:
Seed sources can be moved northward a
modest distance (<~200 miles) to colder
conditions, where they will outgrow local
sources
If moved too far, they suffer cold damage
The most important climatic variable
associated with north-south variation in
growth in provenance tests of southern
pines was average yearly minimum
temperature at the source

33. 20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan
Feb
M
ar
Apr
M
ay
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
Annual
Month
Meanminimumtemp.,deg.F
Alexandria LA
Hot Springs AR
Springfield MO
Average annual monthly
temperature, Crossett EF
high low
1931-1963 76.9º F 51.1º F
1970-2004 74.9º F 53.0º F

34. To enhance species
diversity—
Underplanting or
enrichment planting
A tool to restore
native species
absent from the
stand because of
historical activity or
management
decisions
Managed hardwood stand
with shortleaf pine stumps
Pioneer Forest, fall 2004

35. Underplanting or enrichment planting
Can be used to add species in a stand
based on expected changes
There are technical questions about
planting to achieve partial stocking, to
fill in openings smaller than 2 tree
heights in diameter, and survival under
closed canopy conditions

36. Pay attention to silvics!
Trait - - - Characteristic - - -
Distribution Limited Wide
Scattered Continuous
Pollination vector Insect Wind
Seed dispersal Limited Effective
Reproduction Vegetative Sexual
Habitat specificity Specialized Broad
Seral stage Pioneer Climax
Increasing genetic variability with increasing
number of characteristics to the right-hand side in
the table (Myking 2002)

37. Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems:
Elements of
diversity
Elements of the silvicultural system
Regeneration
treatments
Intermediate
treatments
Reproduction
cutting
methods
Genetic
diversity High Low Low
Species
diversity Moderate Moderate Low
Structural
diversity Low Moderate Moderate

38. Intermediate treatments
Maintain resistance and
resilience of existing
stands to effects of
climate change

39. Structural diversity
Indicators:
Canopy strata—one, two, many
Outputs:
Ability to resist effects of climate
change, or recover if stands are
adversely affected

40. Thinning
 The silvicultural equivalent of
aspirin-we think it works, not
sure why
 Maintain high individual tree
vigor, reduce density-dependent
mortality
 Maintain stocking at acceptable
levels below full stocking

41. Thinned stands have low hazard to
SPB, but admittedly susceptible to
other disturbance events
Thinned pine stand, age 15
PCT Study 99, Crossett EF
Thinned pine stand damaged during
Dec 2000 ice storm
Ouachita NF

42. Prescribed burning
 Maintain stands with reduced
midstory and understory prairie
flora
 Maintain conditions resistant to
loss from wildfire

43. Prescribed burning is important in FS lands—
hopefully, scale and scope can continue
Pine-bluestem stand
Poteau RD, Ouachita NF
An erstwhile
silviculturist
ignites a
prescribed burn
Poteau RD,
Ouachita NF

44. Presalvage, salvage, sanitation cutting
 Decide upon rehabilitation or
recovery based on the extent of
damage
 If recovery is indicated, feed
back to regeneration decisions

45. Resilience: stands that recover
when changes affect them
Longleaf pine stand after Hurricane Katrina
Harrison Experimental Forest, Saucier MS

46. For example, understocked stand rehabilitation
research informs decisions about recovery from
windstorm events
SI=90
SI=75
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15
Time, years
Percentstocking
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15
Time, years
Percentstocking

47. Manage for diverse stands and
ecosystems
Elements
of
diversity
Elements of the silvicultural system
Regeneratio
n treatments
Intermediate
treatments
Reproduction
cutting
methods
Genetic
diversity High Low Low
Species
diversity Moderate Moderate Low
Structural
diversity Low Moderate Moderate

48. Structural diversity
Indicators:
Number and distribution of age
cohorts
Stand tables, models, stocking charts
Outputs:
Ability to resist effects of climate
change, or recover if stands are
adversely affected
Reproduction cutting methods

49. Reproduction
cutting
Even-aged
methods
Uneven-aged
methods
Clearcutting
method
Seed-tree
methods
Shelterwood
method
Group
selection
Single-tree
selection
Timing of new age cohorts—
more frequently may be better!
45-120
yrs
25-80
yrs
7-20
yrs

50. Two very different alternatives:
Longleaf pine woodland
Classic 1- to 2-aged stand
Apalachicola NF, FL
Classic uneven-aged stand
after 75 years of management
Mixed loblolly-shortleaf pine
Crossett EF,AR

51. The alternative of no treatment
inappropriate for managed stands
A problem of stand development
Not a retrogression to pre-
Columbian conditions
Static stand development is
inconsistent with changing
environment

52. Silvicultural strategies to consider at
the stand and landscape scale
SUMMARY

53. 1. Manage forest composition and
structure to improve the resistance to
disturbance and the ability to recover
from disturbance
2. Modify silvicultural practices to improve
diversity of age and species composition
3. Manage forest density for optimum
resistance to drought, fire and wind

54. 4. Factor in the possibility of increased
stress when making decisions about
intermediate treatments (ex. thinning and
burning)
-combine objectives to improve
compositional, structural and genetic
diversity in single treatments
5.Time harvests and site prep practices to
expected seed crops, or to release
established advance growth, for species in
the desired composition

55. 6. Plan for and use disturbance events as
opportunities to improve forest resilience
to climate change
7. Consider “enrichment plantings” within
existing stands to improve species and
genetic diversity
8.Allow a mixture of natural and planted
regeneration.

56. 9. Maximize genetic diversity within the
limits of the desired composition
-natural vs planted
-coppice vs seed
-bulk lot vs open pollinated vs full-sib
-local vs moved source)
10. Minimize the use of single sources for
clonal planting stock.

57. 11. Monitor regeneration and early
development success of desired species.
12. Experimental or “banked” plantings
outside the natural ranges and standard
guides for seed sources (test pollination,
cold hardiness and drought resistance).
13. Consider species and plant material
sources outside and from dryer areas than
the immediate geographic area.

58. 14. Don’t forget to hedge your bet—
Anything done silviculturally to capture
climatic conditions we think will occur
in the future should also be robust in
today’s climate in case our predictions
are wrong!