Danielle Shannon (Michigan Technological University and NIACS), presented at the Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change Workshop, at Antioch University New England, Keene, NH on April 4-5, 2017. The workshop was hosted by the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS), USDA Climate Hubs, and Trout Unlimited.
Details at www.forestadaptation.org/water
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Adapting Forested Watersheds to Climate Change - Approaches for Action
1. ADAPTING FORESTS TO
CLIMATE CHANGE
www.forestadaptation.org
Approaches for Action
Danielle Shannon
April 4, 2017
2. Adaptation in the real world
What does adaptation look like in
forested watershed management?
Stay tuned!
•Erin Rodgers
•Maria Janowiak
…but first what is
adaptation?
3. Our goal: Develop local examples
of adaptation
Forestadaptation.org/demos
+200
Projects
underway
4. Climate Responses
•Mitigation: Actions that reduce
greenhouse gas emissions and enhance
carbon sinks.
•Adaptation: Actions to reduce the
vulnerability of natural and human
systems against climate change effects.
www.nca2014.gov
IPCC 2007
5. Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in
response to climate change.
Parry et al. 2007, SCBD 2009, Groves et al. 2010
Taking action to prepare for anticipated
changes and risks, and responding to effects.
6. But how…?
Assess future risk and vulnerabilities
Design a response in line with your
management goals and needs
Keep in mind….
• There is no single “right” way to
respond to climate change
• Activities can build upon and
complement sustainable
management and conservation
actions
7.
8. Intentionality
• Explicitly consider and
address climate change
• Sure we might get
lucky…
• Intentionally assessing
risk and vulnerabilities
makes our plans more
robust!
10. Manage for Persistence:
Ecosystems are still recognizable as
being the same system (character)
Resistance
Transition
(Response)
Resilience
Manage for Change:
Ecosystems have fundamentally
changed to something different
Adaptation Concepts
Reduce impacts / Maintain current conditions
Forward-looking/Promote change
11. Improve the defenses of
the ecosystem against
effects of change.
• Short-term
• High-value
Millar et al. 2007
Photo: USFS
Resistance (persistence)
14. Accommodate some degree of change or
disruption, but be able to return to a similar
condition after disturbance.
Holling 1973, Millar et al. 2007
Photo: USFS
• Thinning stands to improve overall health & vigor
• Management of vegetation following disturbance
Resilience (persistence)
18. • Restoring ecosystem
function
• Returning an altered
system to its previous
state with the intention of:
• Reestablishing the
structure
• Productivity
• Diversity
…that we think was originally
present in the system, in a
past climate
Restoration
19. • Can be
complementary to
adaptation if:
• Helps the system
better cope with
climate changes.
Restoration
• Restoring can put a system at a higher risk if the
restored state has greater vulnerability to climate
change.
21. Adaptation actions
Adaptation actions may not look that different from
current management actions, especially in the near
term.
Same actions–
climate change
just makes
them that
much more
important
Small “tweaks” that
improve effectiveness
New & different
actions, even
some that seem
wild & crazy
22. Forest Adaptation Resources
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543 and www.AdaptationWorkbook.org
• Practical process to
intentionally consider climate
& customize adaptation
actions
• Designed to be flexible – for
diverse goals, and values
• Does not make
recommendations
• New online version!
Swanston and Janowiak 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
AdaptationWorkbook.org
23. Forest Adaptation Resources
Adaptation Workbook
Strategies & Approaches
Menu of adaptation actions
Structured process to
integrate climate
change considerations
into management.
• Workbook approachSwanston and Janowiak 2016;
www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760 Also online: AdaptationWorkbook.org
24. A structured process to integrate climate change
considerations into management planning and activities
1. DEFINE area of
interest,
management
objectives, and time
frames.
2. ASSESS climate
change impacts and
vulnerabilities for the
area of interest.
3. EVALUATE
management
objectives given
projected impacts
and vulnerabilities.
4. IDENTIFY and
implement
adaptation
approaches and
tactics.
5. MONITOR and
evaluate
effectiveness of
implemented actions.
Vulnerability
assessments,
scientific
literature, and
other resources
Menu of
Adaptation
Strategies &
Approaches
Adaptation Workbook
Swanston and Janowiak 2016; www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760
25. Menu of Adaptation Resources:
Forested Watersheds
1: Maintain and enhance hydrologic processes
2: Protect water quality
3: Protect and restore forests and vegetative cover
4: Facilitate forest community adjustments through tree
species transitions
5: Accommodate altered hydrologic processes
6: Design and modify infrastructure to match future conditions
Draft v1 (2017)
Strategies
26. Translating concepts to actions
Adaptation Concepts = 3
• Resistance, Resilience, Transition
Strategies = 6
• Regionally specific conditions
Approaches = 30
• Actions for a specific ecosystem
or forest type
Tactics = infinite
• Prescriptions for local conditions
and mgmt. objectives
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Menu of Adaptation Resources:
Forested Watersheds
27. 1. Maintain and
enhance hydrologic
processes
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
28. 1.1: Maintain or enhance
infiltration and water
storage capacity of
forest soils
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
31. 4.1 Favor or restore
native species that are
expected to be
adapted to future
conditions.
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
32. 4. Facilitate community
adjustments through
species transitions
CONCEPT
ACTION
STRATEGIES
APROACHES
TACTICS
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches
34. Why it’s important:
Helps connect the dots
from broad concepts to
specific actions for
implementation.
Management
Goals & Objectives
Climate Change Impacts
Intent of Adaptation (Option)
Make Idea Specific
(Strategy, Approach)
Action to Implement
(Tactic)
Challenges & Opportunities
Responding to Climate Change
36. Goal: Protect soil and water resources
Impacts of concern:
•Altered precipitation
•Extreme
precipitation
•Flooding
37. Approaches related to BMPs for Water Quality
• Maintain infiltration and water storage capacity of
soils (Approach 1.1)
• Protect hydrologic function of forested wetlands
(Approach 1.5)
• Reduce soil erosion and sediment loading (Approach 2.3)
• Reduce overland flows (Approach 5.5)
• Reroute or minimize road infrastructure on the
landscape (Approach 6.2)
Goal: Protect soil and water resources
38. Adjust Management to Changing
Conditions
• Protect forested wetland function (1.5)
• Moderate stream temperature increases
(2.1)
• Protect sensitive and unique habitats (3.4)
• Adapt forests to new or changing water
levels (4.6)
Goal: Promote Healthy Forest Wetlands
& Riparian areas
Impacts addressed:
• Warmer air and water
temperatures
• Altered precipitation
• Altered streamflows
• Extreme events
• Changes in tree species
distribution
• Enhanced forest
stressors
39. Adapt Forests to Changing Conditions
Favor native species expected to be
adapted to future conditions (4.1)
• Encourage new mixes of native species.
(4.2)
• Disfavor species that are maladapted. (4.3)
• Introduce species that are expected to be
adapted to future conditions (4.5)
Goal: Promote Healthy Forests
Impacts addressed:
• Warmer
temperatures
• Altered precipitation
• Changes in tree
species distribution
• Enhanced forest
stressors
40. Improved Road Crossings
• Restore hydrologic connectivity (1.2)
• Moderate stream temperature
increases (2.1)
• Restore stream channel form and
function – mimics natural channel
design (1.3)
• Reduce negative effects of flooding and
extreme high flows (5.4)
• Stronger and more robust
infrastructure (6.1)
Goal: Restore Channel Connectivity
Impacts addressed:
• Warmer air and water
temperatures
• Altered precipitation
• Extreme precipitation
• Flooding
• Altered streamflows
41. Protect & Restore Veg. Cover
• Maintain forest and vegetative cover in
uplands, wetlands, and riparian areas (3.1)
• Revegetate areas impacted by
disturbance (3.2)
• Prevent invasive species establishment
(3.3)
• Enhance species and structural diversity
in forests (3.5)
Goal: Maintain Forest and Vegetative Cover
Impacts addressed:
• Warmer temperatures
• Altered precipitation
• Altered streamflows
• Extreme events
• Changes in tree species
distribution
• Enhanced forest
stressors
42. Next Steps
Adaptation Strategies and Approaches for Forested Watersheds!
Develop menu
Literature review
Testing workshop –
Midwest (Mar 15-16)
Testing workshop –
Northeast (Apr 4-5)
Additional comments
Peer review & publication
Help Support Managers
Create more Adaptation
Demonstrations
Training workshops
Details at:
www.forestadaptation.org/water
43. What can you do…?
• Prioritize actions based on site
vulnerability to enhance the
ability to cope
• Reduce risks and plan ahead
• There is no single “right” way
to respond
• Emphasize actions that
maintain flexibility
• ACT! The time is now
What actions can we take to enhance the ability of an ecosystem to cope with change and still meeting our management goals?
This morning we discussed climate change and the range of potential impacts we may see on our watersheds (forests, hydrology, climate). In this talk we will begin thinking about how to manage for that uncertainty now to managing our forests to cope with a range of potential impacts
and adjusting our forest management to create future opportunities and options.
___
This morning we covered projected changes in climate and climate change and impacts on forests and hydrology. Although we recognize a great deal of uncertainty surrounding future projections, now is an important time to start managing that uncertainty. In other words, how can we manage our forests to cope with a range of potential impacts, and how can we adjust our management to create future opportunities
while also dealing with challenges related to climate change?
In this talk – review broad adaptation actions
Leave it to the managers who will present after this presentation to highlight the various ways folks are currently thinking about adaptation actions, planning and integrating climate change into management, and active implementation
Before we get too far – points out : Different concepts, different pieces of the puzzle – today we are talking about adaptation
Adaptation means taking action to prepare for anticipated changes and respond to effects.
Adaptation means taking action (prepare and respond)
Preparing systems for climate change involves assessing information about the vulnerabilities and risks that come with climate change and then choosing a course of action that best fits the management goals and the needs of the system.
There is no single “right” way to respond to climate change, just as there is no single right way to manage resources.
But there are some win-win strategies that will complement the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration practices that are currently on the ground.
For managers who are used to dealing with multiple threats to forest health and productivity, much of what you’re already doing also makes good sense as a response to climate change
________________
Adaptation includes a wide variety of actions that complement the sustainable management, conservation, and restoration of forests and help to maintain ecosystem integrity and environmental benefits.
Some things that we are doing will help systems adapt to climate change even though CC wasn’t an initial consideration in the mgmt. plan
How do these actions already address some aspects of a changing climate? Are there other actions we may want to consider?
Explicitly considering and addressing CC effects that could impact our MGMT goals
Yes we might get lucky – but don’t bank on it - Some things we are doing now will help systems adapt to changing conditions… even if we did not plan for it (this was an unintended consequence of management)
Intentionality makes our plans more robust!
Sets up options for future managers
So before we talk about potential actions, you must first come to grips with these two questions – the answers to these questions will indicate what path you will tend towards in your management
There are three different options that are helpful for thinking about climate change adaptation: resistance, resilience, and transition. Resistance and resilience emphasize management for the persistence of existing systems, and transition promotes system change.
These actions reside as a continuum of choice in how to respond
Know where you are going – general direction you are heading – at the intersection – going left, straight or right
Resistance - Reduce impacts/ Maintain current conditions
Resilience –
Transition - Forward-looking/ Promote change – Innovation!
Resistance actions improve the defenses of a system against anticipated changes, or directly defend the system against disturbance so that the system remains relatively unchanged.
This option could be most useful in high-value systems that may not be able to cope with disturbances and pressures from a changing climate. These systems may be economically, socially, or culturally valuable, or protected for specific values or characteristics.
Building the seawall, adding a few feet to the levy
Installing fuelbreaks
Preventing the spread of invasive species, pests, diseases
The resistance option broadly tries to put resources into maintaining what is currently on the landscape. Over time, this could get more and more costly, so this is best as a short-term strategy or for things of high cultural, economic, ecological value.
Makes more sense if the CC trajectory is already close to BAU….makes less sense if CC trajectory will be more of a departure
Accepting more risk over time with this option.
Protective bubble
Essentially stay the same regardless of CC pressures
Comes with risk
Investment into maintaining the bubble are likely to increase as conditions change
Resisting climate pressures over the long term – setting the system up to fair if some critical threshold is reached
A large disturbance could cause significantly alter the system, causing collapse
The disturbed system may grow back differently, be less productive, or may not provide the same values as the original system.
Thinning stands to improve overall health & vigor
Management of vegetation following disturbance
Resilience actions enhance the ability of a system to return to prior conditions after a disturbance. Although some degree of change may occur, the intent is for the system to return to a state similar to what it was before the disturbance.
Good for systems that can tolerate a wide range of environmental conditions and disturbance (those with high adaptive capacity).
Resilience is effective until the degree of change exceeds the ability of the system to cope – resulting in transition to another state
Increase the capacity of the system to absorb changes
Recover from disturbances
May undergo minor changes with CC
But the system will maintain character into the future
The system may not “look EXACTLY” like the Original but it will be similar in composition and function
-- Carries less risk – but still carries risk if system may not be able to maintain the same character in a different climate.
------
We may choose resilience as the adaptation option for a system when we want to increase the capacity of the system to absorb changes and recover from any disturbances. The system may undergo relatively minor changes as climate pressures increase, but a resilient system will maintain its character into the future. Even though the future system may not look exactly like the original, it will be similar in composition and function. Resilience carries less risk than resistance because we manage the system to cope with some amount of climate disturbance. Risk still increases over time because the system may not be able to maintain the same character in a different climate.
____
In this option, we allow disturbances to occur, but we want the system to eventually return to its original condition or at least resemble current conditions.
Lots of sustainable forest MGMT already falls under this umbrella.
BUT – this option still incurs more and more risk through time, particularly if CC trends are heading in a diff direction.
Favoring future-adapted NATIVE species
Using seed sources from hotter, drier places?
Assisted migration
Increase connectivity for migration corridors
Manage refugia
Restoring former floodplain wet/marsh areas for storage of water – changing the hydrology of the system to act in a different way causes an ecological transition – a forested area is now a persistently wet marsh (different veg)
Facilitate changes that we believe will make the system better suited to future conditions.
- in response, or in advance
We expect that as climate pressures on the system increase and the system may change.
By anticipating likely effects on the system, we can shape our response to maintain desired functions and values even as the system is altered.
In the long term, transition may carry less risk because we are actively considering how a system may change and taking action to promote those changes.
Caveat: tradeoff between long term change and upfront risk – in some cases there maybe significant upfront risks
Still a risky proposition – less risk over time, although there maybe upfront risks that are higher than RR strategies
Maybe appropriate in ecosystems assessed as highly vulnerable across a range of plausible future climates – such that risk with RR maybe too great
Transition actions are typically designed for long-term effectiveness –
Phased into broader MGMT plans that have a short term focus on resilience
More effort upfront? Gradual changes to increase options?
Making an intentional, directed change.
The end result forest still provides values that are important to you.
Most often thought of as returning a system to a previous state in order to re-establish the structure and diversity that we think was there (historic)
Complementary: restoring previously drained wetlands – restoring function, will help the system cope with increased rain events (as storage), and help the system moderate warmer temps by slowly conveying cool water to the system
Greater vulnerability: Attempt to restore species to areas in which they can no longer survive
Establishing restoration benchmarks in a changing climate
Restoration ecologists who work to restore degraded lands sometimes struggle to establish benchmarks.
What does "restoration" look like in different locations? What targets should they set?
Many efforts aim to re-establish the original suite of species that existed at a site before humans developed lands, harvested species, introduced exotics, and dammed rivers.
However, some ecologists argue that a historical target for restoration is no longer valid as climate changes. After all, it makes little sense to attempt to restore species to areas in which they can no longer survive. These ecologists suggest that we should plan for the future instead;
they recommend planting species suited to the projected climate conditions of tomorrow.
https://toolkit.climate.gov/case-studies/mapping-wildland-values-and-climate-change-vulnerability
The upshot is that adaptation activities will usually build upon sustainable forest management and conservation. Much of what peple are already doing for smart forestry also makes good sense as a response to climate change.
The FAR is a resource for you to draw on
Intentionally consider climate – connect to mgmt. goals – customize adaptation responses/actions
Shown to work well with managers who have diverse goals and values
Intended to accommodate a diverse set of goals
Part of that is our decision to not make management recommendations – that’s not what we are here to do
Purpose to help managers logically consider climate change at the scale of their management.
There are two main components to the document, a menu of strategies and approaches, and a workbook to structure and document climate considerations.
S/A
Result of literature review & expert feedback and review
Provides a “menu” of possible actions to chose from based upon your needs and goals for the land.
The workbook approaches adaptation from a perspective that is relevant to you; that is, starting with your management objectives in your geographic area, and working through a five-step process to assess potential impacts,
The workbook creates
framework for managers to customize management actions
to help reduce risks and increase the success of management goals.
Menu: Stepping stones from broad concepts to on-the-ground actions
presents a menu of adaptation actions that can help sustain ecosystems and achieve management goals in the face of climate change.
Came out of an extensive literature review, and is on route to be peer reviewed and published
Sometimes in the process, a manager may identify a tactic first, then work up the hierarchy to identify how a tactic fits in with an intentional climate change adaptation strategy. In this example, we choose to plant future adapted species on south facing slopes.
Favor more drought and heat tolerant species on sites expected to become warmer and drier (narrow ridge tops, south facing slopes with shallow soils, etc)
Climate change creates new challenges, but also new opportunities. It will require both skill and creativity to address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities.
May need to prioritize actions based on vulnerability and ability to manage/adapt
Reduce risk and plan ahead, not just for climate change, but for extreme events and disturbance
Adaptive management maintains flexibility and incorporates new information over time
Managing our natural resources will become more challenging as the climate continues to change, but change, complexity, and uncertainty have always been part of managing natural resources. Climate change creates new challenges, but also new opportunities. It will require both skill and creativity to address the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities.
There is no single “right” way to respond to climate change, and many different actions will be needed to address the challenges.
Incorporating information about the vulnerabilities and risks associated with the changing climate is an important first step. From there, emphasizing actions that maintain flexibility and address the greatest risks may preserve the most choices for future managers, even as they help meet current management goals.
Act now! Deciding where to emphasize different climate adaptation strategies and where to spread risk among multiple strategies.