The document discusses various methods for conducting market analysis for new product development. It focuses on four main areas: idea generation, product optimization, marketing mix optimization, and market prediction. For idea generation, methods like brainstorming, focus groups, and morphological analysis are presented. Product optimization discusses approaches like Quality Function Deployment (QFD) and conjoint analysis to design the product based on customer needs. Test marketing and concept testing are described as ways to introduce the new product to the market and predict its anticipated success. Case studies on pharmaceutical companies and automakers are provided as examples.

1. Market Analysis
New Product Developement
Hamzeh ghorbankhani
Sadegh Motamedi
Mehdi Farimani
Ali Mansouri
Instructor: Dr. Sadeghi

2. Market analysis areas
• Idea Generation
– What product to develop?
• Product Optimization
– How must the product be designed?
• Marketing Mix Optimization
– How to introduce the product?
• Market Prediction
– What is the new product’s anticipated
success

3. What product to develop?
• Brainstorming
• Synectics
• Focus group
• User-observation
• Delphi method
• Morphological analysis

4. Methods (1)
• Brainstorming
– Developing creative solutions.
– New ideas
– Spark off
– Four basic rules
 No criticism
 Welcome unusual ideas
 Quantity wanted
 Combine and improve ideas
• Delphi method
– Does not require face to
face communication.

5. Methods (2)
• Synectics
– Closely related to brainstorming
– More formalised and structured
– Trigger questions
– Making the strange familiar and familiar strange
– Emphasis on fantasy
• Focus group
– Evaluating services
– Testing new ideas

6. Methods (3)
• User-observation
– Direct
– Indirect
observation
methods
personal mechanical audit
• Morphological analysis
content
analysis
trace
analysis

7. Case:a pharmaceutical company
• With all the interest in preventing childhood obesity and improving
the health and wellness of children, the pediatric nutrition division of
a pharmaceutical company wanted to determine what nutritional
products it could develop to improve the health outlook for this
important cohort.
• Conducting the Focus Group
The focus group consisted of four prosumers and four consumers.
The discussion lasted for three hours

8. How must the product be
designed?
• QFD
• Conjoint analysis
• Concept test
• Prototype test
• In-home-use test

9. QFD
• A method designed to help the NPD-project team to identify
and interpret the needs and wants of customers.
• The aim is to establish the importance of product attributes
and transform them into technical requirements.
• Originated in Japan in 1966 by Yoji Akao
• Maximizes positive quality that adds value.
• Tasks in QFD:
– Acquiring market needs by listening to the Voice of Customer (VOC)
– sorting the needs
– numerically prioritizing them (using techniques such as the AHP)

10. QFD Process
• Product Planning (House of Quality)
– Translate customer requirement into product technical requirements
to meet them
• Product Design
– Translate technical requirements to key part characteristics or systems
• Process Planning
– Identify key process operations necessary to achieve key part
characteristics
• Production Planning (Process Control)
– Establish process control plans, maintenance plans, training plans to
control operations

11. QFD process

12. House of Quality

13. Example
• Customer need:
– “the headlamp is bright enough to see well”
• Customer requirement:
– “I can see distant objects well”
– “I can see close objects well”
– “I can see well even under adverse conditions”
• Demanded quality:
– “I can see distant objects well”
– “broad beam”
– “light does not scatter”
• Quality characteristics:
– flux distribution
– headlamp life
– Safety

14. Case: Car Company
• Ford
– Bob King describes an analysis he did at Ford Motor Company.
– An important question was whether the additional time and
expense of using Voice of the Customer and QFD actually helped
or hurt time-to-market.
– The answer was quite striking. By reducing midstream changes,
Ford actually reduced its time-to-market quite significantly.
Although this conclusion seemed counterintuitive at the time,
there is little doubt about it today.
• Kayaba vs. Toyota
the Japanese car
component firm,
Kayaba, who
attempted to use the
QFD systems of Toyota
and initially suffered
almost total failure.

15. Conjoint Analysis (1)
• The early 1970s, market researcher developed conjoint analysis
to overcome some key shortcomings of a standard concept test.
• Conjoint has been widely used in the new product development
process for selecting among alternative product designs,
targeting, and pricing.
• A fundamental idea in conjoint analysis is that a product can be
broken down into a set of relevant attributes
• By defining products as collections of attributes and having the
individual consumer react to a number of alternatives, one can
infer each attributes (i) importance and (ii) most desired level.

16. Conjoint Analysis (2)
• Conjoint estimates an individuals value system, which
specifies how much value a consumer puts on each level of
each of the attributes.
• If we know an individuals value system, we can predict
which of a set of available alternatives he will buy.
• Individuals usually do not find it easy to state their value
system reliably. Rather than forcing consumers to think
separately about individual attributes, conjoint asks the
consumer to make judgments about products overall and
then uses mathematical analysis to uncover the value system
which must be behind the preference judgments.

17. Example (1)
• consider a fitness facility, interested in optimal
design of its locker rooms.
• Two attributes are potentially important to users:
(i) whether or not there is a sauna: “yes” and “no”
(ii) the size of available lockers: “small storage,
large daily”, “medium storage” and “large daily”
• There are thus 2 x 3 = 6 different sauna/locker
combinations or products.
• One might in practice ask individuals how
important these alternative attributes are.
Alternatively, one can simply ask the respondent to
rank order the six possible combinations from
most to least preferred.

18. Example (2)

19. Decision stage in conjoint analysis (1)
Determining
Relevant
Attributes
Choose:
Stimulus
Representa
tion
Choose:
Response
Type
Choose:
Criterion
Choose:
Methods
of Data
Analysis

20. Decision stage in conjoint
analysis (2)
• Determining Relevant Attributes
– In conjoint, the burden is on the analyst to prespecify
the attributes impacting a consumers purchase
decision.
– If an attribute of no real importance is included in the
study, the value system will indicate this attributes
limited role.
• Stimulus Representation
– The second design question is how to present products
to the respondent: partial or full profile method.
– In the full profile approach, each product is described
on all the relevant attributes.

21. Decision stage in conjoint
analysis (3)
• Response Type
– Design three is the manner in which respondents
express their judgments, viz. as ratings or ranks.
– The made-in-the-U.S.A. study noted above is a ratings
scale application, i.e., without explicitly considering
other options, consumers were asked to state how
likely they would be to purchase an item.
• Criterion
– Whatever the stage 3 decision, there is still the related
but distinct issue of the standard to be used in the
judgments.
– The two major types of standards are:
 preference
 likelihood or intention to purchase

22. Decision stage in conjoint analysis (4)
• Methods of Data Analysis
– The data analysis depends on the previous decisions made with
respect to the input data collected.
– Most commonly, the following are used:
Form of Judgment About Alternatives Data Analysis
Rating Scores Simple
Regression
Probability of Purchase Logic Model
Rankings MONANOVA

23. Concept test & In home use
test
• Concept test
– Stage in product development process where a
detailed description of a product (and of its attributes
and benefits) is presented to prospective customers or
users, to assess their attitudes and intentions toward
the product.
• In home use test
– An approach that has a number of potential
customers/users test a new product (“at home”) for a
certain period of time. Afterwards
experiences/problems encountered are discussed.

24. Prototype test
• While CAD/CAE simulation and analysis clearly reduces the required
number of physical prototypes necessary to validate a new product or
component, physical prototype testing remains an important and
necessary step in the product development process.
• Prototype test benefits
– Prototypes can be tested for aspects like design flaws and ease of use.
– You need to make sure everything works the way it should -- and that your
customers can figure out how to make it work, too.
– One of the reasons for this is that time is a huge factor in product
development.
– they can also be useful if you want to start pitching your idea to investors,
upper level management and other interested parties before you have a
finished product.

25. How to introduce the product?
• Mini test
• Test marketing
• Limited roll-out
• Scanner market

26. Test marketing (1)
• Test marketing is about trying something out before making a big
commitment to it. It gives the firm producing and marketing the
product or service some idea of what is likely to happen should it
decide to go ahead with a broader expansion on a regional or
national basis.
• Aims of Test marketing:
– To provide estimations of sales volume and market share for a new
product, a product extension or a new marketing device.
• Types of test marketing
– Traditional test marketing
– Controlled test marketing
– Simulated test marketing

27. Test marketing (2)
• Traditional test marketing
– Traditional test marketing is marketing under ‘normal’
conditions and the company’s own salesforce gets retailers
to stock the product, give it good shelf position and provide
in-store promotion and cooperative advertising. The sales
staff also make sure that the shelves remain stocked.
• Conditional test marketing
– This is a test where sales are measured within a controlled
store environment.
– The research firm stocks the product in the stores, handling
both warehousing and distribution. It maintains retail
inventory levels, handles pricing, shelf conditions and the
building and placement of displays.

28. Test marketing (3)
• Simulated market tes
– A method that confronts customers with a product and its
marketing mix using an interview and virtual store-environment.
– The objectives is to simulate the "awareness-trail-repeat
purchase" process.
– It applies only to a situation where the product and its
packaging, pricing, and advertising and promotion have been
developed in finished form.
 Limited roll out
– An approach for introducing a new product to the market.
The new product is first introduced on a small scale, with the
objective to expand slowly in order to limit market risk.
During the introduction the content of the market strategy
may be modified.

29. What is the new product’s
anticipated success?
• Diffusion model
• Market prediction model

30. Diffusion models (1)
• Everett Roger’s book (Rogers 1962): A
normal distribution is specified for the
timing of adoption, and five classes of
adopters are specified:
(1) Innovators; (2) Early Adopters; (3) Early
Majority; (4) Late Majority; and (5)
Laggards.
• According to the theory, apart from
innovators (defined as the first two and
one-half percent of the adopters), adopters
are influenced in the timing of adoption by
the pressures of the social system, the
pressure increasing for later adopters with
the number of previous adopters.

31. Diffusion models (2)
• The probability that an initial purchase will
be made at T given that no purchase has
yet been made is a linear function of the
number of previous buyers.
P(T)  p (q /m)Y(T)
2 S(T)  pm (q  p)Y(T)  q /m[Y(T)]
• If the coefficient of imitation is greater
than the coefficient of innovation the
solution rises to a peak and then declines.
• Figure  growth of new product

32. Diffusion models (3)
• M, p, q
• The coefficient of innovation is relatively stable
and averages about 0.03.
• The coefficient of imitation varies substantially
across contexts, with an average of about 0.4.
• The Bass model has had great appeal and
widespread use because:
 simple
 generally fits data well
 enables intuitive interpretations of the three parameters
 and performs better than many more complex models.

33. Market prediction models
• Different methods/models
(often computer models)
that try to estimate the
market share of the new
product (over time)
calculating for factors like
customer preference, the
market mix of the new
product and competition
(level of competition an
competitive reactions).

34. Marketing strategy and NPD
• 4P:
1. Pricing
2. Promotion
3. Place
4. Product
• STP
1. Segmentation
2. Targeting
3. positioning
• Brand/branding
• Multi national
marketing strategy
• Market entry
1. How
2. when
• Growth strategies

35. Positioning
• Position differ from image in that it implies a frame of
reference, the reference point is usually being the
competition. Thus when the bank of California positions itself
as being small and friendly it is explicitly or perhaps implicitly
positioning itself with respect to bank of America.
• The positioning decision is often the crucial strategic decision
for company or brand because the position can be central to
customer’s perception and choice. A clear positioning strategy
can insure that the elements of the marketing program are
consistent and supportive.

36. Six approach for positioning
• Attributes (most frequent, Toyota: economy and reliability,
Volkswagen: value for money, Volvo: durability and safety, BMW:
handling and engineering efficiently), ignored points.
• Price/ quality. It is an important attribute. Service, features, or
performance (department stores – stores like Sears- discount stores
like Kmart).
• Use or application, associating product with use or
application(Campbell’s soup for many years was positioned for use at
lunch time).
• Product users. Many cosmetics companies have used this ( Johnson &
Johnson saw market share moved from 3 percent to 14 when they
repositioned their shampoo form a baby shampoo to one used by
people who wash their hair frequently and need mild shampoo)
• The product class ( the hand soap “Caress” by Lever Brothers
positioned itself as a bath oil product rather than a soap).
• The competitors. In most positioning strategies an explicit or implicit
frame of reference is competition. 1. established competitor’s image
2. you are better than a given competitor (Avis we’re number two, so
we try harder).

37. The process of developing a
positioning strategy
1. Identify the competitors (it is not as simple as it
seems). Primary group and secondary group.(
1.asking 2.use context)
2. Determine how the competitors are perceived
and evaluated( associations).
3. Determine competitor’s position. 1.Product
association based 2.similarities based
multidimensional scaling.
4. Analyze the customers, Segmentation.
5. Select the position, segmentation commitment,
economic analysis, don’t try to be something
you are not
6. Monitor the position

38. Thanks for your Attention