The document discusses six strategies for improving decision making: 1) Acquiring experience and expertise, 2) Debiasing judgment, 3) Analogical reasoning, 4) Taking an outsider's view, 5) Using linear models and other statistical techniques, and 6) Understanding biases in others. It provides examples and analysis of how each strategy can help reduce cognitive biases. The strategies include gaining direct experience, questioning current assumptions, comparing to similar past situations, incorporating outside perspectives, applying statistical models, and systematically assessing for biases. The overall aim is to present a framework for more objective and well-informed decisions.

1. Marketing Decision Management
Making
Improving Decision Making
ارائه دهندگان:
احسان مدرس
علی صنعتی
Graduate School of Management and Economics
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2. Introduction
Solution to previous biases
Case (baseball)
Case (Iran’s football)
Case (politics)
Why it takes this amount of time?
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3. Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Introduction
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Debiasing Judgment
Analogical Reasoning
Taking an Outsider’s View
Using Linear Models and Other Statistical
Techniques
Understanding Biases in Others
Strategies for
Improving
Decision making
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4. Strategy 1: Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Experience (feedback)
Feedback not
helps always
because
1.Delay of outcomes
2.Variability of environment
3.No info of alternatives
4.Uniqueness of decisions
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5. Strategy 1: Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Hint All conditions must satisfied for using experience
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Case
• acquiring a company
Conclusion
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6. Strategy 1: Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Expertise
• complementary of experience
Transferability (compare)
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7. Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
Unfreezing
Change
Refreezing
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8. Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
Satisfaction
whit the
status quo
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Unfreezing
Change
Refreezing
Resistance
Against
The
Change
Risk
aversion
Known
behavior
V.S
Innovative
behavior
Change
=
Flaw
Reinforcem
ent Theory
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9. Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
Some ways to
unfreeze
decision making
process
Question
current strategy
(Quiz and
Feedback)
Ready to learn
where they went
wrong
Ready to learn
how they could
have performed
better
Become
Receptive to
alternatives
Vivid
examples
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Unfreezing
Change
Freezing
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10. Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
Change
Clarifying
Reassurance
Explanation
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Unfreezing
Change
Refreezing
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11. Strategy 2: Debiasing Judgment
Revert
back
New
comer
Practice
and
Frequent
application
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Unfreezing
Change
Freezing
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12. Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
THOMPSON :
People learn far more from cases, simulations, and
real-world experiences when they are able to take
away an abstract form of the learning message.
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13. Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
• More generalized insight
How the two
simulations
related?
• Focus on surface-level
characteristics
• Apply the message on specific
context
Explain the
lesson of
each one.
Two exercise
whit same
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lesson
Comparison
Focus on
similarities
Less
Sensitive to
irrelevant
context
features
Transferred
to new
situations
(different
context)
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14. Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
IDSON:
Understanding differences ,as well as similarities,
across problems may also be a very useful means of
transferring knowledge.
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15. Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
Acquiring a
company
Two version of Monty Hall
problem and Two version of
Dividing a Pie Problem
Understand the
differences
Generalize the
importance of
focusing on
others decisions
Without training on Monty Hall
problem and Dividing a Pie
Generalize the
importance of
games role
problem
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16. Strategy 3: Analogical Reasoning
What is the optimal level of abstraction that should
occur to help people from analogies across problems ?
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17. Strategy 4: Taking an Outsider’s View
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Different views
to problems
Insider’s view :
the biased decision maker who looks at each
situation as unique.
Outsider’s view :
more capable of generalizing across situations
and identifying similarities.
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18. Strategy 4: Taking an Outsider’s View
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Entrepreneurs
Member of consulting
team
Kahneman
Construction or
renovation
case
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19. Strategy 4: Taking an Outsider’s View
Why we
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use
insider?
optimism
overconfidence
Consider
all details
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20. Strategy 5: Using Linear Models
4 above strategies are debiasing our decisions directly
Linear model is an alternative for human decisions
Why we need an
alternative?
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Humans don’t
debiased
completely
always have a
rational decision
takes big amount
of time
faced with the
problem of
creating a decision
making
environment
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21. Strategy 5: Using Linear Models
Successful example of using Linear Model
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why do
linear
models
work so
well?
• People are much better at selecting and coding information
than integrating
• Humans are unreliable in judgments
• Additional data (case)
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22. Strategy 6:Understanding Biases in Others
How can we systemically detect bias in
our own decision and those of others ?
Director of marketing for a retail chain
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23. Strategy 6:Understanding Biases in Others
Step1 • Select a comparison group
Step2 • Assess the distribution of the comparison group
Step3 • Incorporate intuitive estimation
Step4 • Assess the predicted result of the decision
Step5 • Adjust the intuitive estimate
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Adjusted estimate =Group mean + Correlation x
(Initial estimate –Group mean)

24. Strategy 6:Understanding Biases in Others
We now have a model for adjusting biased decisions in both
individual and multiparty context that involves three parts.
Perceive and analyze the context
Distinguish the potential biases
Identify and make the adjustment
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25. Intro S. 1 S. 2 S. 3 S. 4 S. 5 S. 6 Con.
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Conclusion
Strategies for
improving
decision making
Change
Acquiring Experience and Expertise
Debiasing Judgment
Analogical Reasoning
Techniques
Taking an Outsider’s View
Using Linear Models and Other Statistical
Techniques
Understanding Biases in Others
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26. Thank You
For Your Attention