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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff
Net sales 9,147 7,203 27.0 8,981 1.9
EBITDA 960 916 4.8 895 7.3
EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 12.7 (222)bp 10.0 53bp
PAT 598 570 5.0 535 11.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
For 2QFY2011, Maruti recorded decent performance. The top line came in
marginally above our estimates, largely due to higher volume growth, while
bottom-line growth was lower due to contraction in EBITDA margin on a yoy
basis. Higher royalty charges and increased input costs hit Maruti’s operating
performance on a yoy basis. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock.
Decent performance; 2QFY2011 results above expectations: For 2QFY2011,
Maruti registered 27% yoy growth in net sales to `9,147cr (`7,203cr), 1.9% above
our estimates. Volumes for the quarter increased by 27% yoy, while average
realisation declined by 0.5% for the quarter. The company reported better-than-
expected EBITDA margin, despite higher raw-material costs (up 149bp yoy) and a
substantial increase in royalty (up 160bp yoy) to 5.3% of net sales (3.7% in
2QFY2010). Savings at staff cost and power and fuel cost helped the company to
post an 87bp qoq expansion in EBITDA margin. Net profit at `598cr recorded a
5% yoy jump, 11.8% above our expectations. Higher other operating income
(up 39% yoy) and other income (up 22% yoy) helped the company to exhibit
better-than-expected bottom-line performance.
Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of `1,551, the stock is trading at 18.7x and
15x FY2011E and FY2012E earnings of `82.9 and `103.4, respectively.
We broadly maintain our volume and earnings growth estimates for Maruti.
We model a 16.6% volume CAGR and an 11% earnings CAGR for the company.
We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `1,670, at which
level it would trade at 16.2x FY2012E earnings (5% discount to our
Sensex target multiple).
Key financials
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 20,454 29,099 35,081 41,308
% chg 14.3 42.3 20.6 17.7
Net profit 1,667 2,498 2,396 2,988
% chg (6.2) 49.8 (4.1) 24.7
EBITDA margin (%) 9.2 11.8 10.0 10.6
EPS (`) 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4
P/E (x) 41.8 18.5 18.7 15.0
P/BV (x) 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.6
RoE (%) 18.2 18.6 18.0 16.6
RoCE (%) 11.9 22.7 17.4 18.9
EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 28.2 11.2 10.6 8.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE
CMP `1,551
Target Price `1,670
Investment Period 12 Months
Stock Info
Sector
Bloomberg Code
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 54.2
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 23.0
FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.2
Indian Public / Others 2.6
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11.3 24.8 0.3
Maruti Suzuki 29.5 12.5 30.5
MSIL@IN
5
20,032
6,018
MRTI.BO
44,817
0.7
1,658/1,171
118,289
Automobile
Avg. Daily Volume
Market Cap (` cr)
Beta
52 Week High / Low
Face Value (`)
BSE Sensex
Nifty
Reuters Code
Vaishali Jajoo
022-4040 3800 Ext: 344
vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com
Yaresh Kothari
022-4040 3800 Ext: 313
yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com
Maruti Suzuki
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | Automobile
October 29 2010
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 2
Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Net sales (incl. other op. inc.) 9,147 7,203 27.0 17,379 13,696 26.9
Consumption of RM 6,791 5,240 29.6 12,925 10,007 29.2
(% of sales) 74.2 72.7 74.4 73.1
Staff costs 157 126 24.2 318 260 22.3
(% of sales) 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9
Purchases of TG 285 216 31.9 561 403 39.0
(% of sales) 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.9
Other expenses 955 705 35.5 1,822 1,316 38.5
(% of sales) 10.4 9.8 10.5 9.6
Total expenditure 8,187 6,286 30.2 15,626 11,986 30.4
EBITDA 960 916 4.8 1,753 1,709 2.5
EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 12.7 10.1 12.5
Interest 10 6 62.8 18 12 44.1
Depreciation 238 203 17.3 480 399 20.2
Other Income 134 110 21.8 234 327 (28.3)
PBT (excl. extr. items) 846 817 3.6 1,489 1,624 (8.3)
Extr. income/(expense) - - - - - -
PBT (incl. extr. items) 846 817 3.6 1,489 1,624 (8.3)
(% of sales) 9.3 11.3 8.6 11.9
Provision for taxation 248 247 0.4 426 471 (9.6)
(% of PBT) 29.3 30.2 28.6 29.0
PAT 598 570 5.0 1,064 1,154 (7.8)
PATM (%) 6.5 7.9 6.1 8.4
Equity capital (cr) 144 144 144 144
EPS (`) 21 20 5.0 37 40 (7.8)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Quarterly volume performance
Y/E March (units) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg
Total volume 313,654 246,188 27.4 596,978 472,917 26.2
A1: M800 5,207 8,737 (40.4) 12,113 15,856 (23.6)
C: Omni, Versa, Eeco 41,596 22,200 87.4 75,117 44,433 69.1
A2: Alto, Wagon R, Zen,
Swift, A-star, Ritz
198,953 153,096 30.0 369,466 299,829 23.2
A3: SX4, Dezire 31,362 24,278 29.2 60,320 44,225 36.4
Total passenger cars 277,118 208,311 33.0 517,016 404,343 27.9
MUV: Gypsy, Vitara 818 772 6.0 3,807 2,155 76.7
Domestic 277,936 209,083 32.9 520,823 406,498 28.1
Exports 35,718 37,105 (3.7) 76,155 66,419 14.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 3
Net sales marginally above expectation, up on higher volume growth: Maruti
reported 27% yoy top-line growth at `9,147cr, which was marginally above our
expectation of `8,981cr, largely aided by ~27.4% yoy jump in volumes. Top-line
performance was also aided by a substantial ~39.3% increase in other operating
income at `170cr (`122cr in 2QFY2010). Other operating income increased due
to forex gain of `10cr, higher spare part sale and cash discount during the
quarter. Average net realisation was marginally down by 0.5% yoy at `2.85lakh
(`2.86lakh), largely owing to currency (Euro) impact on export revenue, which
stood at `992cr (`1,130cr in 1QFY2011 and `1,266cr in 2QFY2010), while
average export realisation declined by almost 18.6% yoy to `2.77lakh (`3.41lakh
in 2QFY2010).
Exhibit 3: Volume growth remains robust
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: Realisation down marginally by 0.5%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Net sales up 27% on 27.4% volume growth
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 6: Segment-wise market share trend
Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Quarterly revenue and realisation performance
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
Domestic revenue (` cr) 5,341 5,784 6,020 6,952 6,921 7,945
Change qoq (%) - 8.3 4.1 15.5 (0.4) 14.8
Domestic realisation (`) 270,560 276,616 274,988 283,308 284,934 285,861
Change qoq (%) - 2.2 (0.6) 3.0 0.6 0.3
Export revenue (` cr) 999 1,266 1,314 1,283 1,130 992
Change qoq (%) - 26.7 3.8 (2.4) (11.9) (12.2)
Export realisation (`) 340,793 341,194 336,079 305,186 279,447 277,731
Change qoq (%) - 0.1 (1.5) (9.2) (8.4) (0.6)
Source: Company, Angel Research
17.7
29.9
48.7
21.5
25.0
27.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)(units) Total volume yoy growth (RHS)
13.8
12.9
9.3
7.5
1.6
(0.5)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
276,000
278,000
280,000
282,000
284,000
286,000
288,000
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)(` ) Net average realisation/unit yoy growth (RHS)
33.6
44.2
62.2
31.0 26.8
27.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)(` cr) Net sales (LHS) yoy change (RHS)
58.2 56.5 58.0
52.7 53.4
56.5
36.9 38.0
35.1 34.6
37.7
34.8
53.5
51.1 50.8 46.5 47.6 48.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%) A2 A3 Total passenger car
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 4
Better-than-expected performance at the operating front: For 2QFY2011, Maruti’s
EBITDA margin grew 87bp qoq to 10.5%, 53bp above our estimate. However, the
company reported a 222bp yoy dip in EBITDA margin, largely due to a 149bp yoy
increase in raw-material cost to 74.2% (72.7%) and a substantial increase in
royalty (up 160bp yoy) to 5.3% (3.7%) of net sales. Royalty charges spiked due the
increase in sales of K-series engine models and amendments in the various royalty
agreements the company has entered with Suzuki Motor Corporation, resulting in
additional royalty expense. However, lower power and fuel coat and fall in selling
and distribution expenses restricted the further decline in operating margin on a
yoy basis to a certain extent. Maruti expects annualised benefits of `30cr from the
Manesar facility on power and fuel cost; of this, `8cr was utilised during
2QFY2011.
Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin trend
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 9: Net profit up 5.0% yoy
Source: Company, Angel Research
Net profit up 5% yoy: Maruti reported net profit of `598cr, up 5% yoy, as against
our estimate of `535cr. Growth was largely aided by higher volume growth and
decent performance at the operating front. However, higher other operating
income and other income for the quarter positively supported net profit growth to a
certain extent.
12.2 12.7 15.1 13.2
9.6 10.5
78.2 77.4 76.2 77.9
79.6 79.2
3.6 3.7 3.6
3.3
5.9 5.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0
20
40
60
80
100
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)(%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales
Royalty expenses/sales (RHS)
9.0
7.9
9.2
7.8
5.7
6.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)(` cr) Net profit Net profit margin (RHS)
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 5
Conference call – Key highlights
Management expects the robust demand momentum to continue in
2HFY2011, driven by strong consumer demand. As a result of the buoyant
demand, festival discount during the current fiscal is 18% less as compared to
the last fiscal. The production capacity has been increased to 1.3mn units
(from 1.2mn) through de-bottlenecking exercise. The current production rate is
110,000 units/month. Total production capacity will increase to 1.75mn units
per annum by FY2012–13.
• Manesar plant B: Capacity of 2.5lakh units operational by 3QFY2012.
• Manesar Plant C: Capacity of 2.5lakh units operational by early FY2013.
The company has hedged ~80% of exports and ~25% of imports exposure.
Ongoing appreciation in Yen is a concern, which may have an adverse impact
on the company’s margins.
Management intends to de-risk exports and, as such, is concentrating on
non-European markets. Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia and
Brunei are the countries in which the company is testing its products. During
2QFY2011, 60% of exports were to non-European countries. Exports revenue
during 1HFY2011 was `2,122cr (`2,265cr in 1HFY2010).
Maruti expects annualised benefits of `30cr from the Manesar facility on the
power and fuel front. Of this, `8cr was utilised during 2QFY2011.
Capital expenditure of `500cr was incurred during 2QFY2011. Capex target
for FY2011 is `2,800cr.
Sales of CNG models are in the range of 15–18% of overall sales in the
markets, where the CNG models have been launched.
Exhibit 10: Passenger vehicle (PV) volume and market share trend
Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research
(20)
(10)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2QFY07
3QFY07
4QFY07
1QFY08
2QFY08
3QFY08
4QFY08
1QFY09
2QFY09
3QFY09
4QFY09
1QFY10
2QFY10
3QFY10
4QFY10
1QFY11
2QFY11
(%)(units) Market share (RHS) PV volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 6
Investment arguments
Per capita near inflexion point for car demand: Car penetration in India is
estimated at around 12 vehicles/1,000 people in FY2009 compared to
around 21 vehicles/1,000 people in China. Moreover, India’s PPP-based per
capita is estimated to approach US $5,000 over the next 4–5 years, which is
expected to be the inflexion point for the country’s car demand. Increasing
penetration is estimated to drive ~13% CAGR in domestic volumes over
FY2010–12E. Further, Maruti has a sizeable competitive advantage over new
foreign entrants due to its widespread distribution network (nearly 2,767 and
681 service and sales outlets, respectively), which is not easy to replicate.
Suzuki focusing to make Maruti a small car-manufacturing hub: Suzuki Japan
is making Maruti a manufacturing hub to cater to the increasing global
demand for small cars, due to rising fuel prices and stricter emission
standards. Thus, we believe there exists a huge potential for the company to
increase its market share in the export market. Moreover, R&D capabilities, so
far largely housed at Suzuki Japan, are progressively moving to Maruti.
The company is aiming to achieve full model change capabilities over the next
couple of years, which will enable it to launch new models and variants at a
much faster pace, which should ideally reduce its royalty payment in the long
run (2–3 years).
Outlook and valuation
We broadly maintain our volume and earnings growth estimates for the company.
We model a 16.6% volume CAGR and an 11% CAGR in earnings over
FY2010–12E for the company.
Exhibit 11: Change in estimates
Y/E March (` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chg
FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E
Net sales 34,578 41,093 35,081 41,308 1.5 0.5
EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 10.5 10.0 10.6 7bp 10bp
EPS 82.8 102.5 82.9 103.4 0.1 0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research
At the CMP of `1,551, the stock is trading at 18.7x and 15x FY2011E and
FY2012E earnings of `82.9 and `103.4, respectively. We maintain Accumulate on
the stock with a Target Price of `1,670, at which level it would trade at 16.2x
FY2012E earnings (5% discount to our Sensex target multiple).
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 7
Exhibit 12: Key assumptions
Particular (units) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
A1 : Maruti 800 79,245 69,543 49,383 33,028 21,468 19,321
C: Omni, Versa 83,091 89,737 77,948 101,325 157,054 180,612
A2: Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A Star 440,375 499,280 511,396 633,190 766,160 873,422
A3 : SX4, Esteem, D-Zire 29,697 49,335 75,928 99,315 120,171 136,995
Total Passenger Cars 632,408 707,960 714,655 866,858 1,064,853 1,210,351
MUV: Gypsy, Vitara 3,221 3,927 7,489 3,932 4,915 5,407
Domestic 635,629 711,824 722,144 870,790 1,069,768 1,215,757
Export 39,295 53,024 70,023 147,557 147,557 169,691
Total Sales 674,924 764,848 792,167 1,018,347 1,217,325 1,385,448
% yoy chg. 20.1 13.3 3.6 28.6 19.5 13.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 13: Angel v/s consensus forecast
Angel estimates Consensus Variation (%)
FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Top line (` cr) 35,081 41,308 34,719 39,993 1.0 3.3
EPS (`) 82.9 103.4 84.7 98.1 (2.1) 5.4
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 14 : One-year forward P/E band
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 15: One-year forward P/E chart
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
(`) Share price (`) 5x 9x 13x 17x
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
(x) Absolute P/E Five-yr average P/E
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 8
Exhibit 16: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 17: Maruti - Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E
Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 18: Automobile - Recommendation summary
Company Reco.
CMP
(`)
Tgt. price
(`)
Upside
(%)
P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY10-12E EPS
FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E CAGR (%)
Ashok Leyland Neutral 76 - - 17.6 13.9 11.5 9.8 15.0 17.5 37.5
Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,514 1,603 5.9 16.9 15.1 11.1 9.7 79.8 70.2 30.5
Hero Honda Neutral 1,866 - - 17.4 15.6 13.0 11.3 55.8 52.3 7.2
Maruti Suzuki Accumulate 1,551 1,670 7.7 18.7 15.0 10.6 8.1 18.0 16.6 11.2
M&M Accumulate 732 827 13.0 17.6 15.5 11.6 10.1 25.7 24.7 16.4
Tata Motors Accumulate 1,159 1,214 5.1 9.4 8.6 6.1 4.8 64.9 46.1 173.2
TVS Motor Neutral 73 - - 16.4 12.5 9.4 7.1 23.9 29.4 58.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
(`cr) EV (` cr) 7x 9x 11x 13x
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
20
40
60
Apr-04
Oct-04
Apr-05
Oct-05
Apr-06
Oct-06
Apr-07
Oct-07
Apr-08
Oct-08
Apr-09
Oct-09
Apr-10
Oct-10
(%) Absolute premium Five-yr average premium
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 9
Profit & Loss Statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Gross sales 17,206 21,025 23,181 31,948 39,197 46,154
Less: Excise duty 2,510 3,134 2,727 2,849 4,116 4,846
Net Sales 14,696 17,892 20,454 29,099 35,081 41,308
Total operating income 14,696 17,892 20,454 29,099 35,081 41,308
% chg - 21.7 14.3 42.3 20.6 17.7
Total Expenditure 12,706 15,598 18,572 25,669 31,585 36,929
Net Raw Materials 10,982 13,455 16,045 22,170 26,937 31,497
Other Mfg costs 251 345 - 526 667 867
Personnel 266 347 464 538 614 744
Other 1,207 1,451 2,064 2,435 3,368 3,821
EBITDA 1,990 2,294 1,882 3,430 3,497 4,379
% chg - 15.2 (18.0) 82.3 1.9 25.2
(% of Net Sales) 13.5 12.8 9.2 11.8 10.0 10.6
Depreciation& Amortisation 271 568 707 825 1,002 1,143
EBIT 1,719 1,726 1,175 2,605 2,494 3,235
% chg - 0.4 (31.9) 121.7 (4.3) 29.7
(% of Net Sales) 11.7 9.6 5.7 9.0 7.1 7.8
Interest & other Charges 38 60 51 34 45 41
Other Income 611 883 1,000 1,021 999 1,074
(% of PBT) 27.0 35.5 50.6 29.1 29.0 25.2
Recurring PBT 2,292 2,549 2,124 3,593 3,448 4,269
% chg - 11.2 (16.7) 69.1 (4.0) 23.8
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (27) (61) (146) (79) - -
PBT 2,265 2,488 1,978 3,514 3,448 4,269
Tax 718 772 457 1,095 1,051 1,281
(% of PBT) 32 31 23 31 30 30
PAT (reported) 1,574 1,777 1,667 2,498 2,396 2,988
ADJ. PAT 1,548 1,716 1,521 2,419 2,396 2,988
% chg 31.8 10.9 (11.3) 59.0 (0.9) 24.7
(% of Net Sales) 10.5 9.6 7.4 8.3 6.8 7.2
Basic EPS (`) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4
% chg 31.8 10.9 (37.5) 125.5 (0.9) 24.7
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 10
Balance Sheet
Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 145 145 145 145 145 145
Reserves & Surplus 6,709 8,271 9,200 11,691 14,762 17,431
Shareholders’ Funds 6,854 8,415 9,345 11,835 14,907 17,576
Total Loans 631 900 699 821 821 821
Deferred Tax Liability 168 170 155 137 120 77
Total Liabilities 7,652 9,486 10,199 12,794 15,848 18,474
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 6,147 7,285 8,721 10,407 12,529 14,753
Less: Acc. Depreciation 3,487 3,989 4,650 5,382 6,384 7,528
Net Block 2,660 3,297 4,071 5,025 6,145 7,225
Capital Work-in-Progress 251 736 861 388 1,002 738
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 3,409 5,181 3,173 7,177 7,924 10,161
Current Assets 4,405 3,098 5,510 3,772 5,269 5,592
Cash 1,423 331 1,939 98 704 223
Loans & Advances 1,533 1,074 1,731 1,656 2,105 2,478
Other 1,449 1,694 1,840 2,019 2,460 2,890
Current liabilities 3,072 2,826 3,417 3,568 4,492 5,242
Net Current Assets 1,333 272 2,094 205 777 351
Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - -
Total Assets 7,652 9,486 10,199 12,794 15,848 18,474
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 11
Cash Flow Statement
Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Profit before tax 2,265 2,488 1,978 3,514 3,448 4,269
Depreciation 271 568 707 825 1,002 1,143
Change in Working Capital (596) (152) (403) 140 (468) (274)
Less: Other income (829) 263 926 14 (639) 329
Direct taxes paid 718 772 457 1,095 1,051 1,281
Cash Flow from Operations 2,052 1,869 899 3,369 3,569 3,529
(Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (1,351) (1,624) (1,560) (1,212) (2,737) (1,959)
(Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (1,358) (1,772) 2,007 (4,003) (747) (2,237)
(Inc.)/Dec. in loans and adv. (75) 66 (335) (132) (98) 5
Other income 611 883 1,000 1,021 999 1,074
Cash Flow from Investing (2,173) (2,447) 1,112 (4,327) (2,583) (3,116)
Issue of Equity - - - - - -
Inc./(Dec.) in loans 559 269 (201) 123 - -
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 115 152 169 118 202 212
Others (804) (935) (371) (1,124) (582) (1,104)
Cash Flow from Financing (129) (514) (403) (883) (380) (893)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (250) (1,092) 1,608 (1,841) 606 (481)
Opening Cash balances 1,673 1,423 331 1,939 98 704
Closing Cash balances 1,423 331 1,939 98 704 223
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 12
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 29.0 26.1 41.8 18.5 18.7 15.0
P/CEPS 24.3 19.1 23.3 13.8 13.2 10.9
P/BV 6.5 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.6
Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5
EV/Sales 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8
EV/EBITDA 20.4 17.5 28.2 11.2 10.6 8.1
EV / Total Assets 7.3 5.3 4.3 3.8 2.9 2.2
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4
EPS (fully diluted) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4
Cash EPS 63.9 81.1 66.6 112.2 117.6 143.0
DPS 4.5 5.0 3.5 6.0 6.3 7.5
Book Value 237.2 291.2 323.4 409.5 515.8 608.2
DuPont Analysis
EBIT margin 11.7 9.6 5.7 9.0 7.1 7.8
Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 5.9 5.3 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
RoIC (Post-tax) 47.3 35.0 19.9 33.8 27.2 29.6
Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 7.3 5.4 4.9 3.0 3.8 3.5
Leverage (x) - - - - - -
Operating RoE 47.3 35.0 19.9 33.8 27.2 29.6
Returns (%)
RoCE (Pre-tax) 25.9 20.1 11.9 22.7 17.4 18.9
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 61.0 43.4 14.3 47.2 34.5 40.0
RoE 22.4 21.4 18.2 18.6 18.0 16.6
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.0
Inventory / Sales (days) 20 18 17 13 14 14
Receivables (days) 17 14 14 11 10 10
Payables (days) 44 46 49 37 35 36
WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (2) (2) 1 2 1 1
Solvency ratios (x)
Net debt to equity (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5)
Net debt to EBITDA (2.1) (2.0) (2.3) (1.9) (2.2) (2.2)
Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 45.7 29.0 23.0 77.8 55.2 78.8
Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update
October 29 2010 13
Disclosure of Interest Statement Maruti Suzuki
1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
DISCLAIMER
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.

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Maruti suzuki ru2 qfy2011-291010

  • 1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg (yoy) Angel est. % diff Net sales 9,147 7,203 27.0 8,981 1.9 EBITDA 960 916 4.8 895 7.3 EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 12.7 (222)bp 10.0 53bp PAT 598 570 5.0 535 11.8 Source: Company, Angel Research For 2QFY2011, Maruti recorded decent performance. The top line came in marginally above our estimates, largely due to higher volume growth, while bottom-line growth was lower due to contraction in EBITDA margin on a yoy basis. Higher royalty charges and increased input costs hit Maruti’s operating performance on a yoy basis. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Decent performance; 2QFY2011 results above expectations: For 2QFY2011, Maruti registered 27% yoy growth in net sales to `9,147cr (`7,203cr), 1.9% above our estimates. Volumes for the quarter increased by 27% yoy, while average realisation declined by 0.5% for the quarter. The company reported better-than- expected EBITDA margin, despite higher raw-material costs (up 149bp yoy) and a substantial increase in royalty (up 160bp yoy) to 5.3% of net sales (3.7% in 2QFY2010). Savings at staff cost and power and fuel cost helped the company to post an 87bp qoq expansion in EBITDA margin. Net profit at `598cr recorded a 5% yoy jump, 11.8% above our expectations. Higher other operating income (up 39% yoy) and other income (up 22% yoy) helped the company to exhibit better-than-expected bottom-line performance. Outlook and valuation: At the CMP of `1,551, the stock is trading at 18.7x and 15x FY2011E and FY2012E earnings of `82.9 and `103.4, respectively. We broadly maintain our volume and earnings growth estimates for Maruti. We model a 16.6% volume CAGR and an 11% earnings CAGR for the company. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `1,670, at which level it would trade at 16.2x FY2012E earnings (5% discount to our Sensex target multiple). Key financials Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 20,454 29,099 35,081 41,308 % chg 14.3 42.3 20.6 17.7 Net profit 1,667 2,498 2,396 2,988 % chg (6.2) 49.8 (4.1) 24.7 EBITDA margin (%) 9.2 11.8 10.0 10.6 EPS (`) 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4 P/E (x) 41.8 18.5 18.7 15.0 P/BV (x) 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.6 RoE (%) 18.2 18.6 18.0 16.6 RoCE (%) 11.9 22.7 17.4 18.9 EV/Sales (x) 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA (x) 28.2 11.2 10.6 8.1 Source: Company, Angel Research ACCUMULATE CMP `1,551 Target Price `1,670 Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector Bloomberg Code Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 54.2 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 23.0 FII / NRIs / OCBs 20.2 Indian Public / Others 2.6 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 11.3 24.8 0.3 Maruti Suzuki 29.5 12.5 30.5 MSIL@IN 5 20,032 6,018 MRTI.BO 44,817 0.7 1,658/1,171 118,289 Automobile Avg. Daily Volume Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Vaishali Jajoo 022-4040 3800 Ext: 344 vaishali.jajoo@angelbroking.com Yaresh Kothari 022-4040 3800 Ext: 313 yareshb.kothari@angelbroking.com Maruti Suzuki Performance Highlights 2QFY2011 Result Update | Automobile October 29 2010
  • 2. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 2 Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg Net sales (incl. other op. inc.) 9,147 7,203 27.0 17,379 13,696 26.9 Consumption of RM 6,791 5,240 29.6 12,925 10,007 29.2 (% of sales) 74.2 72.7 74.4 73.1 Staff costs 157 126 24.2 318 260 22.3 (% of sales) 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 Purchases of TG 285 216 31.9 561 403 39.0 (% of sales) 3.1 3.0 3.2 2.9 Other expenses 955 705 35.5 1,822 1,316 38.5 (% of sales) 10.4 9.8 10.5 9.6 Total expenditure 8,187 6,286 30.2 15,626 11,986 30.4 EBITDA 960 916 4.8 1,753 1,709 2.5 EBITDA margin (%) 10.5 12.7 10.1 12.5 Interest 10 6 62.8 18 12 44.1 Depreciation 238 203 17.3 480 399 20.2 Other Income 134 110 21.8 234 327 (28.3) PBT (excl. extr. items) 846 817 3.6 1,489 1,624 (8.3) Extr. income/(expense) - - - - - - PBT (incl. extr. items) 846 817 3.6 1,489 1,624 (8.3) (% of sales) 9.3 11.3 8.6 11.9 Provision for taxation 248 247 0.4 426 471 (9.6) (% of PBT) 29.3 30.2 28.6 29.0 PAT 598 570 5.0 1,064 1,154 (7.8) PATM (%) 6.5 7.9 6.1 8.4 Equity capital (cr) 144 144 144 144 EPS (`) 21 20 5.0 37 40 (7.8) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: Quarterly volume performance Y/E March (units) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY11 1HFY10 % chg Total volume 313,654 246,188 27.4 596,978 472,917 26.2 A1: M800 5,207 8,737 (40.4) 12,113 15,856 (23.6) C: Omni, Versa, Eeco 41,596 22,200 87.4 75,117 44,433 69.1 A2: Alto, Wagon R, Zen, Swift, A-star, Ritz 198,953 153,096 30.0 369,466 299,829 23.2 A3: SX4, Dezire 31,362 24,278 29.2 60,320 44,225 36.4 Total passenger cars 277,118 208,311 33.0 517,016 404,343 27.9 MUV: Gypsy, Vitara 818 772 6.0 3,807 2,155 76.7 Domestic 277,936 209,083 32.9 520,823 406,498 28.1 Exports 35,718 37,105 (3.7) 76,155 66,419 14.7 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 3. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 3 Net sales marginally above expectation, up on higher volume growth: Maruti reported 27% yoy top-line growth at `9,147cr, which was marginally above our expectation of `8,981cr, largely aided by ~27.4% yoy jump in volumes. Top-line performance was also aided by a substantial ~39.3% increase in other operating income at `170cr (`122cr in 2QFY2010). Other operating income increased due to forex gain of `10cr, higher spare part sale and cash discount during the quarter. Average net realisation was marginally down by 0.5% yoy at `2.85lakh (`2.86lakh), largely owing to currency (Euro) impact on export revenue, which stood at `992cr (`1,130cr in 1QFY2011 and `1,266cr in 2QFY2010), while average export realisation declined by almost 18.6% yoy to `2.77lakh (`3.41lakh in 2QFY2010). Exhibit 3: Volume growth remains robust Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: Realisation down marginally by 0.5% Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 5: Net sales up 27% on 27.4% volume growth Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 6: Segment-wise market share trend Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research Exhibit 7: Quarterly revenue and realisation performance 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 Domestic revenue (` cr) 5,341 5,784 6,020 6,952 6,921 7,945 Change qoq (%) - 8.3 4.1 15.5 (0.4) 14.8 Domestic realisation (`) 270,560 276,616 274,988 283,308 284,934 285,861 Change qoq (%) - 2.2 (0.6) 3.0 0.6 0.3 Export revenue (` cr) 999 1,266 1,314 1,283 1,130 992 Change qoq (%) - 26.7 3.8 (2.4) (11.9) (12.2) Export realisation (`) 340,793 341,194 336,079 305,186 279,447 277,731 Change qoq (%) - 0.1 (1.5) (9.2) (8.4) (0.6) Source: Company, Angel Research 17.7 29.9 48.7 21.5 25.0 27.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%)(units) Total volume yoy growth (RHS) 13.8 12.9 9.3 7.5 1.6 (0.5) (2) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 276,000 278,000 280,000 282,000 284,000 286,000 288,000 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%)(` ) Net average realisation/unit yoy growth (RHS) 33.6 44.2 62.2 31.0 26.8 27.0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%)(` cr) Net sales (LHS) yoy change (RHS) 58.2 56.5 58.0 52.7 53.4 56.5 36.9 38.0 35.1 34.6 37.7 34.8 53.5 51.1 50.8 46.5 47.6 48.2 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) A2 A3 Total passenger car
  • 4. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 4 Better-than-expected performance at the operating front: For 2QFY2011, Maruti’s EBITDA margin grew 87bp qoq to 10.5%, 53bp above our estimate. However, the company reported a 222bp yoy dip in EBITDA margin, largely due to a 149bp yoy increase in raw-material cost to 74.2% (72.7%) and a substantial increase in royalty (up 160bp yoy) to 5.3% (3.7%) of net sales. Royalty charges spiked due the increase in sales of K-series engine models and amendments in the various royalty agreements the company has entered with Suzuki Motor Corporation, resulting in additional royalty expense. However, lower power and fuel coat and fall in selling and distribution expenses restricted the further decline in operating margin on a yoy basis to a certain extent. Maruti expects annualised benefits of `30cr from the Manesar facility on power and fuel cost; of this, `8cr was utilised during 2QFY2011. Exhibit 8: EBITDA margin trend Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 9: Net profit up 5.0% yoy Source: Company, Angel Research Net profit up 5% yoy: Maruti reported net profit of `598cr, up 5% yoy, as against our estimate of `535cr. Growth was largely aided by higher volume growth and decent performance at the operating front. However, higher other operating income and other income for the quarter positively supported net profit growth to a certain extent. 12.2 12.7 15.1 13.2 9.6 10.5 78.2 77.4 76.2 77.9 79.6 79.2 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.3 5.9 5.3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 0 20 40 60 80 100 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%)(%) EBITDA margin Raw material cost/sales Royalty expenses/sales (RHS) 9.0 7.9 9.2 7.8 5.7 6.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%)(` cr) Net profit Net profit margin (RHS)
  • 5. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 5 Conference call – Key highlights Management expects the robust demand momentum to continue in 2HFY2011, driven by strong consumer demand. As a result of the buoyant demand, festival discount during the current fiscal is 18% less as compared to the last fiscal. The production capacity has been increased to 1.3mn units (from 1.2mn) through de-bottlenecking exercise. The current production rate is 110,000 units/month. Total production capacity will increase to 1.75mn units per annum by FY2012–13. • Manesar plant B: Capacity of 2.5lakh units operational by 3QFY2012. • Manesar Plant C: Capacity of 2.5lakh units operational by early FY2013. The company has hedged ~80% of exports and ~25% of imports exposure. Ongoing appreciation in Yen is a concern, which may have an adverse impact on the company’s margins. Management intends to de-risk exports and, as such, is concentrating on non-European markets. Australia, New Zealand, Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunei are the countries in which the company is testing its products. During 2QFY2011, 60% of exports were to non-European countries. Exports revenue during 1HFY2011 was `2,122cr (`2,265cr in 1HFY2010). Maruti expects annualised benefits of `30cr from the Manesar facility on the power and fuel front. Of this, `8cr was utilised during 2QFY2011. Capital expenditure of `500cr was incurred during 2QFY2011. Capex target for FY2011 is `2,800cr. Sales of CNG models are in the range of 15–18% of overall sales in the markets, where the CNG models have been launched. Exhibit 10: Passenger vehicle (PV) volume and market share trend Source: Company, SIAM, Angel Research (20) (10) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 2QFY07 3QFY07 4QFY07 1QFY08 2QFY08 3QFY08 4QFY08 1QFY09 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%)(units) Market share (RHS) PV volume (LHS) yoy growth (RHS)
  • 6. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 6 Investment arguments Per capita near inflexion point for car demand: Car penetration in India is estimated at around 12 vehicles/1,000 people in FY2009 compared to around 21 vehicles/1,000 people in China. Moreover, India’s PPP-based per capita is estimated to approach US $5,000 over the next 4–5 years, which is expected to be the inflexion point for the country’s car demand. Increasing penetration is estimated to drive ~13% CAGR in domestic volumes over FY2010–12E. Further, Maruti has a sizeable competitive advantage over new foreign entrants due to its widespread distribution network (nearly 2,767 and 681 service and sales outlets, respectively), which is not easy to replicate. Suzuki focusing to make Maruti a small car-manufacturing hub: Suzuki Japan is making Maruti a manufacturing hub to cater to the increasing global demand for small cars, due to rising fuel prices and stricter emission standards. Thus, we believe there exists a huge potential for the company to increase its market share in the export market. Moreover, R&D capabilities, so far largely housed at Suzuki Japan, are progressively moving to Maruti. The company is aiming to achieve full model change capabilities over the next couple of years, which will enable it to launch new models and variants at a much faster pace, which should ideally reduce its royalty payment in the long run (2–3 years). Outlook and valuation We broadly maintain our volume and earnings growth estimates for the company. We model a 16.6% volume CAGR and an 11% CAGR in earnings over FY2010–12E for the company. Exhibit 11: Change in estimates Y/E March (` cr) Earlier estimates Revised estimates % chg FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 34,578 41,093 35,081 41,308 1.5 0.5 EBITDA margin (%) 9.9 10.5 10.0 10.6 7bp 10bp EPS 82.8 102.5 82.9 103.4 0.1 0.9 Source: Company, Angel Research At the CMP of `1,551, the stock is trading at 18.7x and 15x FY2011E and FY2012E earnings of `82.9 and `103.4, respectively. We maintain Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `1,670, at which level it would trade at 16.2x FY2012E earnings (5% discount to our Sensex target multiple).
  • 7. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 7 Exhibit 12: Key assumptions Particular (units) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E A1 : Maruti 800 79,245 69,543 49,383 33,028 21,468 19,321 C: Omni, Versa 83,091 89,737 77,948 101,325 157,054 180,612 A2: Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A Star 440,375 499,280 511,396 633,190 766,160 873,422 A3 : SX4, Esteem, D-Zire 29,697 49,335 75,928 99,315 120,171 136,995 Total Passenger Cars 632,408 707,960 714,655 866,858 1,064,853 1,210,351 MUV: Gypsy, Vitara 3,221 3,927 7,489 3,932 4,915 5,407 Domestic 635,629 711,824 722,144 870,790 1,069,768 1,215,757 Export 39,295 53,024 70,023 147,557 147,557 169,691 Total Sales 674,924 764,848 792,167 1,018,347 1,217,325 1,385,448 % yoy chg. 20.1 13.3 3.6 28.6 19.5 13.8 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 13: Angel v/s consensus forecast Angel estimates Consensus Variation (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Top line (` cr) 35,081 41,308 34,719 39,993 1.0 3.3 EPS (`) 82.9 103.4 84.7 98.1 (2.1) 5.4 Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 14 : One-year forward P/E band Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 15: One-year forward P/E chart Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 (`) Share price (`) 5x 9x 13x 17x 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 (x) Absolute P/E Five-yr average P/E
  • 8. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 8 Exhibit 16: One-year forward EV/EBITDA band Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 17: Maruti - Premium/Discount to Sensex P/E Source: Company, Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 18: Automobile - Recommendation summary Company Reco. CMP (`) Tgt. price (`) Upside (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) FY10-12E EPS FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E CAGR (%) Ashok Leyland Neutral 76 - - 17.6 13.9 11.5 9.8 15.0 17.5 37.5 Bajaj Auto Accumulate 1,514 1,603 5.9 16.9 15.1 11.1 9.7 79.8 70.2 30.5 Hero Honda Neutral 1,866 - - 17.4 15.6 13.0 11.3 55.8 52.3 7.2 Maruti Suzuki Accumulate 1,551 1,670 7.7 18.7 15.0 10.6 8.1 18.0 16.6 11.2 M&M Accumulate 732 827 13.0 17.6 15.5 11.6 10.1 25.7 24.7 16.4 Tata Motors Accumulate 1,159 1,214 5.1 9.4 8.6 6.1 4.8 64.9 46.1 173.2 TVS Motor Neutral 73 - - 16.4 12.5 9.4 7.1 23.9 29.4 58.1 Source: Company, Angel Research 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 (`cr) EV (` cr) 7x 9x 11x 13x (60) (40) (20) 0 20 40 60 Apr-04 Oct-04 Apr-05 Oct-05 Apr-06 Oct-06 Apr-07 Oct-07 Apr-08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 (%) Absolute premium Five-yr average premium
  • 9. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 9 Profit & Loss Statement Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Gross sales 17,206 21,025 23,181 31,948 39,197 46,154 Less: Excise duty 2,510 3,134 2,727 2,849 4,116 4,846 Net Sales 14,696 17,892 20,454 29,099 35,081 41,308 Total operating income 14,696 17,892 20,454 29,099 35,081 41,308 % chg - 21.7 14.3 42.3 20.6 17.7 Total Expenditure 12,706 15,598 18,572 25,669 31,585 36,929 Net Raw Materials 10,982 13,455 16,045 22,170 26,937 31,497 Other Mfg costs 251 345 - 526 667 867 Personnel 266 347 464 538 614 744 Other 1,207 1,451 2,064 2,435 3,368 3,821 EBITDA 1,990 2,294 1,882 3,430 3,497 4,379 % chg - 15.2 (18.0) 82.3 1.9 25.2 (% of Net Sales) 13.5 12.8 9.2 11.8 10.0 10.6 Depreciation& Amortisation 271 568 707 825 1,002 1,143 EBIT 1,719 1,726 1,175 2,605 2,494 3,235 % chg - 0.4 (31.9) 121.7 (4.3) 29.7 (% of Net Sales) 11.7 9.6 5.7 9.0 7.1 7.8 Interest & other Charges 38 60 51 34 45 41 Other Income 611 883 1,000 1,021 999 1,074 (% of PBT) 27.0 35.5 50.6 29.1 29.0 25.2 Recurring PBT 2,292 2,549 2,124 3,593 3,448 4,269 % chg - 11.2 (16.7) 69.1 (4.0) 23.8 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (27) (61) (146) (79) - - PBT 2,265 2,488 1,978 3,514 3,448 4,269 Tax 718 772 457 1,095 1,051 1,281 (% of PBT) 32 31 23 31 30 30 PAT (reported) 1,574 1,777 1,667 2,498 2,396 2,988 ADJ. PAT 1,548 1,716 1,521 2,419 2,396 2,988 % chg 31.8 10.9 (11.3) 59.0 (0.9) 24.7 (% of Net Sales) 10.5 9.6 7.4 8.3 6.8 7.2 Basic EPS (`) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4 % chg 31.8 10.9 (37.5) 125.5 (0.9) 24.7
  • 10. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 10 Balance Sheet Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 145 145 145 145 145 145 Reserves & Surplus 6,709 8,271 9,200 11,691 14,762 17,431 Shareholders’ Funds 6,854 8,415 9,345 11,835 14,907 17,576 Total Loans 631 900 699 821 821 821 Deferred Tax Liability 168 170 155 137 120 77 Total Liabilities 7,652 9,486 10,199 12,794 15,848 18,474 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 6,147 7,285 8,721 10,407 12,529 14,753 Less: Acc. Depreciation 3,487 3,989 4,650 5,382 6,384 7,528 Net Block 2,660 3,297 4,071 5,025 6,145 7,225 Capital Work-in-Progress 251 736 861 388 1,002 738 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 3,409 5,181 3,173 7,177 7,924 10,161 Current Assets 4,405 3,098 5,510 3,772 5,269 5,592 Cash 1,423 331 1,939 98 704 223 Loans & Advances 1,533 1,074 1,731 1,656 2,105 2,478 Other 1,449 1,694 1,840 2,019 2,460 2,890 Current liabilities 3,072 2,826 3,417 3,568 4,492 5,242 Net Current Assets 1,333 272 2,094 205 777 351 Mis. Exp. not written off - - - - - - Total Assets 7,652 9,486 10,199 12,794 15,848 18,474
  • 11. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 11 Cash Flow Statement Y/E March (` cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Profit before tax 2,265 2,488 1,978 3,514 3,448 4,269 Depreciation 271 568 707 825 1,002 1,143 Change in Working Capital (596) (152) (403) 140 (468) (274) Less: Other income (829) 263 926 14 (639) 329 Direct taxes paid 718 772 457 1,095 1,051 1,281 Cash Flow from Operations 2,052 1,869 899 3,369 3,569 3,529 (Inc.)/Dec. in Fixed Assets (1,351) (1,624) (1,560) (1,212) (2,737) (1,959) (Inc.)/Dec. in Investments (1,358) (1,772) 2,007 (4,003) (747) (2,237) (Inc.)/Dec. in loans and adv. (75) 66 (335) (132) (98) 5 Other income 611 883 1,000 1,021 999 1,074 Cash Flow from Investing (2,173) (2,447) 1,112 (4,327) (2,583) (3,116) Issue of Equity - - - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 559 269 (201) 123 - - Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 115 152 169 118 202 212 Others (804) (935) (371) (1,124) (582) (1,104) Cash Flow from Financing (129) (514) (403) (883) (380) (893) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (250) (1,092) 1,608 (1,841) 606 (481) Opening Cash balances 1,673 1,423 331 1,939 98 704 Closing Cash balances 1,423 331 1,939 98 704 223
  • 12. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 12 Key Ratios Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11E FY12E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 29.0 26.1 41.8 18.5 18.7 15.0 P/CEPS 24.3 19.1 23.3 13.8 13.2 10.9 P/BV 6.5 5.3 4.8 3.8 3.0 2.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 EV/Sales 2.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 0.9 0.8 EV/EBITDA 20.4 17.5 28.2 11.2 10.6 8.1 EV / Total Assets 7.3 5.3 4.3 3.8 2.9 2.2 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4 EPS (fully diluted) 53.5 59.4 37.1 83.7 82.9 103.4 Cash EPS 63.9 81.1 66.6 112.2 117.6 143.0 DPS 4.5 5.0 3.5 6.0 6.3 7.5 Book Value 237.2 291.2 323.4 409.5 515.8 608.2 DuPont Analysis EBIT margin 11.7 9.6 5.7 9.0 7.1 7.8 Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 5.9 5.3 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 RoIC (Post-tax) 47.3 35.0 19.9 33.8 27.2 29.6 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 7.3 5.4 4.9 3.0 3.8 3.5 Leverage (x) - - - - - - Operating RoE 47.3 35.0 19.9 33.8 27.2 29.6 Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) 25.9 20.1 11.9 22.7 17.4 18.9 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 61.0 43.4 14.3 47.2 34.5 40.0 RoE 22.4 21.4 18.2 18.6 18.0 16.6 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) 2.6 2.7 2.6 3.0 3.1 3.0 Inventory / Sales (days) 20 18 17 13 14 14 Receivables (days) 17 14 14 11 10 10 Payables (days) 44 46 49 37 35 36 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) (2) (2) 1 2 1 1 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) Net debt to EBITDA (2.1) (2.0) (2.3) (1.9) (2.2) (2.2) Interest Coverage (EBIT/Interest) 45.7 29.0 23.0 77.8 55.2 78.8
  • 13. Maruti Suzuki | 2QFY2011 Result Update October 29 2010 13 Disclosure of Interest Statement Maruti Suzuki 1. Analyst ownership of the stock Yes 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below `1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.