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Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1QFY11 %qoq
Revenue 431.0 349.6 23.3 402.8 7.0
EBITDA 64.5 50.8 27.1 78.6 (17.9)
OPM (%) 15.0 14.5 45bp 19.5 (453bp)
PAT 42.1 23.7 77.7 40.2 4.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
We have revised our estimates upwards: 1) revised revenue estimates for FY2011
by 1.3% to factor in higher revenue traction from the Burda JV which is offset by
lower-than-expected circulation revenues reported by the company this quarter,
2) revised consolidated earnings to factor in the company’s focus on cost
rationalization, incremental newsprint cost due to the Burda JV (negative impact),
high other income and lower interest expense. We recommend Accumulate on
the stock.
Burda JV drives top-line, bottom line buoyed by other income and OPM
expansion: HT Media posted mixed set of numbers both on the revenue and
profitability front. Top-line growth was 23% yoy to `431cr, aided by significant
revenue traction from Burda (~`28cr) and a modest 14% yoy increase in core
revenues (advertisement grew 16.8% yoy, circulation de-grew by 12.7% yoy).
Recurring earnings grew a robust 77.7% yoy albeit on account of significant
increase in other income and margin expansion (margins expanded despite
contraction in gross margin by 298bp yoy).
Outlook and Valuation: HTML continued to show resilience in its new businesses
this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive cost
rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive and
achieved EBIT breakeven despite additional cost of ~`30-40lakh incurred
towards their new property, Ramayana), trickle–down effect of higher revenue
traction and benign newsprint price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during
FY2010-12) will help HTML post higher margins (~20%) during FY2011/12. At
the CMP of `165, HTML is trading at 17.8x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of
`9.3. Owing to significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses
and incremental revenue traction on the back of improvement in advertising
spends across sectors, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a Target
Price of `186 based on 20x FY2012E earnings.
Key Financials (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Net Sales 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012
% chg 11.9 4.9 24.8 14.1
Net Profit (Adj) 20.0 143.5 191.1 218.8
% chg (80.3) 617.3 33.1 14.5
EBITDA margin (%) 6.5 18.1 19.9 19.7
EPS (`) 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3
P/E (x) 193.7 27.1 20.4 17.8
P/BV (x) 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9
RoE (%) 2.4 15.8 18.0 17.4
RoCE (%) 1.6 14.5 19.6 20.4
EV/Sales (x) 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 47.7 16.0 11.5 9.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
ACCUMULATE
CMP `165
Target Price `186
Investment Period 12 months
Stock Info
Sector Print Media
Market Cap (Rs cr) 3,891
Beta 0.6
52 Week High / Low 186/156
Avg. Daily Volume 39,436
Face Value (Rs) 2.0
BSE Sensex 19,941
Nifty 5,988
Reuters Code HTML.BO
Bloomberg Code HTML@IN
Shareholding Pattern (%)
Promoters 68.8
MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.7
FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.5
Indian Public / Others 3.0
Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr
Sensex 11.0 22.5 3.6
HTML 4.2 28.6 (22.8)
Anand Shah
022-4040 3800-334
anand.shah@angelbroking.com
Chitrangda Kapur
022-4040 3800-323
chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com
Sreekanth P.V.S
022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331
sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com
HT Media
Performance Highlights
2QFY2011 Result Update | Media
October 28, 2010
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 2
Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1QFY11 % qoq 1HFY2011 1HFY2010 % chg
Net Sales 431.0 349.6 23.3 402.8 7.0 833.9 679.2 22.8
Consumption of RM 164.9 123.4 33.7 130.3 26.6 295.2 247.0 19.5
(% of Sales) 38.3 35.3 32.3 35.4 36.4
Staff Costs 73.4 62.2 18.0 74.9 (2.0) 148.4 126.8 17.0
(% of Sales) 17.0 17.8 18.6 17.8 18.7
Advertising 32.3 34.3 (5.9) 28.5 13.0 60.8 53.8 13.1
(% of Sales) 7.5 9.8 7.1 7.3 7.9
Other Expenses 95.9 79.0 21.4 90.5 5.9 186.4 150.0 24.3
(% of Sales) 22.2 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.1
Total Expenditure 366.5 298.9 22.6 324.3 13.0 690.8 577.6 19.6
Operating Profit 64.5 50.8 27.1 78.6 (17.9) 143.1 101.6 40.9
OPM (%) 15.0 14.5 19.5 17.2 15.0
Interest 5.5 7.4 (26.0) 6.4 (14.5) 11.9 15.3 (22.2)
Depreciation 21.1 18.7 13.1 19.4 8.7 40.5 36.2 12.1
Other Income 20.7 3.3 520.1 7.2 188.0 27.8 17.0 64.0
PBT (excl. Ext Items) 58.6 28.1 108.8 59.9 (2.2) 118.5 67.1 76.6
Ext Income/(Expense) - - - - -
PBT (incl. Ext Items) 58.6 28.1 108.8 59.9 (2.2) 118.5 67.1 76.6
(% of Sales) 13.6 8.0 14.9 14.2 9.9
Provision for Taxation 16.6 4.4 277.0 19.8 (16.2) 36.3 15.5 135.0
(% of PBT) 28.2 15.6 33.0 30.6 23.0
Recurring PAT 42.1 23.7 77.7 40.2 4.7 82.2 51.6 59.2
PATM 9.8 6.8 10.0 9.9 7.6
Minority Interest 3.3 (0.4) (1.2) 2.0 (1.2)
Reported PAT 38.8 24.1 60.9 41.4 (6.2) 80.2 52.8 51.8
Equity shares (cr) 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5
EPS (`) 1.7 1.0 60.9 1.8 (6.2) 3.4 2.2 51.8
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: Revenue highlights (Consolidated)
(` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1QFY11 % qoq
Consolidated sales 431.0 349.6 23.3 402.8 7.0
Hindi 125.7 102.6 22.5 132.8 (5.3)
English 305.3 247.0 23.6 270.0 13.1
Advertising 329.4 282.1 16.8 328.6 0.2
Hindi 91.4 70.6 29.5 96.3 (5.1)
English 238.0 211.5 12.5 232.3 2.5
Circulation 41.8 47.9 (12.7) 46.8 (10.7)
Hindi 28.8 30.4 (5.3) 32.3 (10.8)
English 13.0 17.5 (25.7) 14.5 (10.3)
Radio 14.1 9.8 43.9 12.3 14.5
Internet 2.7 1.0 170.0 2.0 35.0
Core revenue 388.0 340.8 13.8 389.7 (0.4)
Others 43.0 8.8 387.0 13.1 227.5
Source: Company, Angel Research
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 3
Top-line growth strong at 23% led by ~20%+ growth in both English
and Hindi
HT Media posted a strong top-line growth of 23% yoy to `431cr (`350cr) driven by
23.6% yoy growth in English and 22.5% yoy growth in Hindi. On a sequential basis,
however, Hindustan reported a decline of 5% in advertising revenue on account of
the seasonality factor (2QFY2010 partly captured the festive season), while for
English print the advertising revenue was modest at 2.5%. Circulation revenue
recorded a decline of 12.7% yoy/10.7% qoq to `41.8cr. Both English print and
Hindustan reported a yoy decline of 25.7% and 5.3% respectively, in circulation.
While Hindustan’s circulation revenue decline maybe attributed to increase in
competitive intensity in its core Bihar/Jharkhand market leading to lower realisation
(with the entry of DB Corp in Ranchi, the cover price of Hindustan was slashed to `2),
the English print circulation suffered on account of higher discounts/free trial
subscription copies distributed in the markets of Mumbai, Punjab, UP and some parts
in Delhi. As part of the company strategy, management has indicated that they
would strive to garner higher advertising revenue going forward by focusing on
attaining higher readership irrespective of the circulation.
Exhibit 3: Top-line growth (Consolidated)
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 4: English/Hindi Ad-rev. up 13%/30%
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Circulation rev. declines 12.7%
Source: Company, Angel Research
344 338 330
350 359 374
403
431
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(`cr)
282 286
302
329 329
(5)
-
5
10
15
20
25
-
100
200
300
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Ad Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
48 51
43
47
42
(20)
(10)
-
10
20
30
40
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Circ Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 4
Amongst other segments, the new businesses registered significant revenue
traction. The radio business reported robust top-line growth of 43.7% yoy to
`14.1cr (`9.8cr) on account of increased advertising, while the internet business
contributed `2.7cr to overall revenues. Management has indicated that the
Burda JV contributed `28cr to revenues in its first full quarter of operation. We
expect the Burda JV to contribute ~`75cr to FY2011 top-line.
Bumper earnings despite jump in tax rate, aided by other income
In terms of earnings, HT Media posted a robust growth of 77.7% yoy to `42cr
(`24cr) on a recurring basis and 60.9% yoy growth to `39cr (`24cr) on a
reported basis, despite the spike in the tax rate (up 1,260bp yoy) and
depreciation cost (up 13.1% yoy), aided by significant 520% yoy increase in
other income (spike on account of higher interest and dividend income and a
profit of ~`2.5cr booked through divestment of private treaties), 26% yoy decline
in interest expense and margin expansion. Moreover, the losses in internet
business have reduced (reported an operating loss of `8.5cr in 2QFY2011
compared to `9.5cr in 2QFY2010), while radio has reported an operating profit
of `1.6cr.
 
Exhibit 6: NPM to sustain at ~10% in FY2011
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 7: Sequentially Gross margins contracts OPM
Source: Company, Angel Research
OPM expands on cost rationalisation
At the operating level, HT Media posted a modest 45bp yoy expansion in
operating margins, driving 27% yoy growth in operating profit to `64.5cr, aided
by various cost rationalisation measures adopted by the company, which saw
decline in staff cost (down 76bp yoy/156bp qoq), advertising spend (down
232bp yoy/qoq increase of 40bp) and other expenses (down 35bp yoy/23bp
qoq). However, a significant 298bp yoy/592bp qoq contraction in gross margin
on account of hardening newsprint costs and operating loss for Burda JV
(recorded newsprint cost of ~`24cr this quarter) curtailed further OPM
expansion.
In terms of segments, HTML recorded EBIT margin expansion of 327bp yoy to
14% (10.7%), aided by the company’s print business (recorded EBIT of `70cr
and margin expansion of 199bp yoy to 16.7%) and decrease in the losses of
internet businesses, while radio achieved breakeven with a marginal `0.5cr
profit (loss of `2.4cr) at EBIT level.
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
(10)
-
10
20
30
40
50
3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11
(%)
(`cr)
Recurring PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS)
5.7
(6.1)
15.4 15.5 18.8 21.9 19.5
15.0
56.5 59.8 62.5 64.7
68.4 69.1 67.7
61.7
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11
(%)
OPM Gross Margins
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 5
Exhibit 8: Segmental Performance (Consolidated)
Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY2011 1HFY2010 % chg
Revenue
Printing 417.7 339.6 23.0 808.8 667.0 21.3
Radio 14.1 9.8 43.7 26.4 18.7 41.4
Internet 2.7 1.0 179.4 4.7 1.7 176.5
Total Revenue 434.6 350.4 24.0 839.9 687.4 22.2
Less: Inter segment 1.3 0.7 3.3 1.3
Less: Other Op Inc 12.7 0.3 13.9 0.5
Total Net sales 420.6 349.3 20.4 822.7 685.6 20.0
EBIT
Printing 69.9 50.0 39.6 148.4 105.3 40.9
Radio 0.5 (2.4) (0.7) (5.2)
Internet (9.4) (10.0) (18.2) (19.5)
Total EBIT 60.9 37.6 61.8 129.5 80.7 60.5
EBIT Margin (%) 14.0 10.7 327 15.4 11.7
Source: Company, Angel Research
Investment Rationale
Incremental growth in ad revenue, Burda JV to scale up top-line: HTML
recorded a rebound in ad-revenue this quarter, with a yoy growth of 23.6% in
English print and 22.5% yoy in Hindi print, despite 2QFY2010 partially
capturing the festive season. The increase was primarily driven by volume
growth and a marginal improvement in yield. With the up-tick in economy, we
estimate this growth in ad-revenue to sustain, with the English (HT Times and
Mint) and Hindi print businesses (HMVL) posting a CAGR of 15.6% and 26%
over FY2010–12, respectively. While Hindustan’s ad–revenue will grow
maximum in UP (we peg a CAGR of ~32% over FY2010–12), HT Mumbai will
be the maximum growth driver for the English print’s ad-revenue (we peg a
CAGR of ~15% over FY2010–12). Moreover, FY2011 will be the first full
operational year for the Burda JV and we estimate it to contribute ~`75cr to
top-line in FY2011.
Resilience in new business to continue, expect OPM of ~20% in FY1011/12: In
terms of operating performance, HTML continued to show resilience in its new
businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover,
aggressive cost rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA
positive and achieved EBIT breakeven despite additional cost of ~`30-40lakh
incurred towards their new property, Ramayana), trickle–down effect of higher
revenue traction and benign newsprint price environment (factoring in ~10%
rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML post higher margins (~20%) during
FY2011/12.
Balance sheet to remain healthy, we peg cash to swell to ~`200cr+ in FY2012:
HTML has shown significant turnaround in the net working capital in FY2010,
with improvement in both inventory and debtor turnover. Going forward, for our
FY2011 and FY2012 estimates, we expect the company to sustain its negative
working capital cycle, thus increasing its cash surplus. As of 2QFY2011, the
company recorded ~`91cr of cash in its books, which we peg it to swell to
~`200cr by FY2012. Hence, we believe that HTML is extremely well placed in
terms of funding its expansion plans and continuing investing in its growing
business, owing to a low debt:equity of ~0.2x and low working capital
requirement.
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 6
Outlook and Valuation
We have revised upwards our revenue expectations for FY2011 by 1.3% to factor
in higher revenue traction from Burda JV - we expect Burda JV to contribute
`75cr in top-line (earlier estimated `60cr), but offset by lower-than-expected
circulation revenues reported by the company (pruned the consolidated
circulation revenues to ~`170cr).
The consolidated earnings are revised upwards to factor in: 1) saving through
the cost rationalisation initiatives taken by the company in terms of
advertisement spend and staff cost but, offset by incremental newsprint cost due
to Burda JV (expect cost to be 75% of estimated Burda’s revenues), 2) high other
income, and 3) lower interest expense as the company pays off its debt.
Exhibit 9: Change in estimates
Parameter Old Estimate New Estimate % chg
(` cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E
Revenue 1,741 2,014 1,763 2,012 1.3 (0.1)
OPM (%) 19.8 20.3 19.9 19.7 7bp (61bp)
EPS (`) 7.6 9.3 8.1 9.3 6.9 0.1
Source: Company, Angel Research
At CMP of `165, HTML is trading at 17.8x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of
`9.3. Owing to significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses
and incremental revenue traction on the back of improvement in advertising
spend across sectors, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a Target
Price of `186 based on 20x FY2012E earnings.
Downside risks to our estimates include – 1) Sharp rise in newsprint prices, 2)
Increased competition, and 3) Higher-than-expected losses or re-investment in
growing businesses (Radio, Mint and Internet).
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 7
Exhibit 10: Key Assumptions - Revenue
(` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E CAGR (%)
Advt Revenues 1,133 1,141 1,407 1,600 18.4
HT Times/ Mint 890 844 1,006 1,129 15.6
Hindustan 244 297 400 471 26.0
Circ Revenues 154 183 170 201 4.6
HT Times/ Mint 49 63 53 55 (6.6)
Hindustan 105 121 118 146 10.0
Radio Revenues 29 41 63 75 34.9
Burda JV - 5 75 85 297.5
Others 30 42 48 52 10.9
Total Revenue 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012 19.3
Yoy growth (%)
Advt Revenues 11.9 0.7 23.3 13.7
HT Times/ Mint 5.0 (5.1) 19.2 12.2
Hindustan 47.7 21.5 35.0 17.6
Circ Revenues 2.5 19.0 (7.1) 17.8
HT Times/ Mint (7.5) 27.6 (16.0) 3.9
Hindustan 8.0 15.0 (2.5) 24.1
Radio Revenues 54.3 42.1 52.9 19.0
Burda JV 1,294.1 13.3
Others 39.4 39.8 13.5 8.3
% of Total
Advt revenue 84.2 80.8 79.8 79.5
Circ Revenues 11.4 13.0 9.7 10.0
Radio Revenues 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.7
Burda JV - 0.4 4.3 4.2
Others 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.6
Source: Company, Angel Research
Exhibit 11: Peer Valuation
Company Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR #
(` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT
HT Media Accumulate 3,891 165 186 12.7 20.4 17.8 2.3 1.9 18.0 17.4 19.3 26.9
Jagran Buy 3,923 130 154 18.5 20.2 16.8 3.7 3.2 30.6 33.9 14.7 15.1
DCHL Buy 3,175 130 193 48.5 11.3 9.9 2.2 2.0 20.9 21.1 11.8 10.7
Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:^
denotes consensus data, #
denotes CAGR for FY2010-12E
Exhibit 12: Angel v/s Consensus estimates
Top-line (` cr) FY2011E FY2012E EPS (`) FY2011E FY2012E
Angel estimates 1,763 2,012 Angel estimates 8.1 9.3
Consensus 1,651 1,868 Consensus 7.7 9.4
Diff (%) 6.8 7.7 Diff (%) 6.0 (1.2)
Source: Company, Angel Research
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 8
Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) ` crore
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Gross sales 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012
Less: Excise duty - - - - - -
Net Sales 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012
Total operating income 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012
% chg 26.1 15.7 11.9 4.9 24.8 14.1
Total Expenditure 871 1,033 1,259 1,158 1,413 1,616
Cost of Materials 465 497 595 515 667 790
SG&A 206 289 354 318 390 438
Personnel 160 198 242 252 264 292
Others 41 49 68 72 92 97
EBITDA 169 170 88 255 350 396
% chg 41.8 0.7 (48.3) 190.6 37.1 13.1
(% of Net Sales) 16.2 14.1 6.5 18.1 19.9 19.7
Depreciation& Amortisation 44 57 69 71 83 90
EBIT 125 113 19 185 267 306
% chg 57.7 (9.7) (83.1) 868.5 44.7 14.5
(% of Net Sales) 12.0 9.4 1.4 13.1 15.2 15.2
Interest & other Charges 15 18 32 30 19 16
Other Income 37 44 33 41 49 56
(% of PBT) 25.0 31.6 166.6 20.9 16.5 16.2
Share in profit of Associates - - - - - -
Recurring PBT 147 139 20 196 298 346
% chg 78.1 (5.3) (85.7) 888.4 51.8 16.4
Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (0) - 19 8 - -
PBT (reported) 147 139 1 188 298 346
Tax 55 38 12 54 89 104
(% of PBT) 37.2 27.1 62.9 27.4 30.0 30.0
PAT (reported) 92 101 (12) 135 208 242
Add: Share of associates - - - - - -
Less: Minority interest (MI) (5) 0 (13) (1) 17 24
PAT after MI (reported) 97 101 1 136 191 219
ADJ. PAT 97 101 20 144 191 219
% chg 64.4 4.6 (80.3) 617.3 33.1 14.5
(% of Net Sales) 9.3 8.4 1.5 10.2 10.8 10.9
Basic EPS (`) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3
Fully Diluted EPS (`) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3
% chg 63.8 4.6 (80.3) 617.3 33.1 14.5
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 9
Balance Sheet (Consolidated) ` crore
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Equity Share Capital 47 47 47 47 47 47
Preference Capital - - - - - -
Reserves& Surplus 717 806 802 924 1,107 1,318
Shareholders Funds 764 853 849 971 1,154 1,365
Minority Interest 0 0 (7) 22 39 63
Total Loans 166 223 371 313 188 158
Deferred Tax Liability 27 12 21 18 18 18
Total Liabilities 957 1,088 1,233 1,323 1,398 1,603
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 614 701 823 1,033 1,237 1,364
Less: Acc. Depreciation 124 177 247 322 405 495
Net Block 490 524 576 712 833 870
Capital Work-in-Progress 31 59 196 129 148 164
Goodwill - - - - - -
Investments 229 266 304 475 475 475
Current Assets 418 520 698 670 772 1,009
Cash 110 77 71 109 65 203
Loans & Advances 56 129 232 200 256 292
Other 252 314 396 362 452 514
Current liabilities 211 280 540 666 831 915
Net Current Assets 207 240 158 5 (58) 94
Misc Exp 0 0 - 2 - -
Total Assets 957 1,088 1,233 1,323 1,398 1,603
Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) ` crore
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Profit before tax 147 139 1 189 298 346
Depreciation 44 57 69 71 83 90
Change in Working Capital (22) (19) 132 155 20 (15)
Interest / Dividend (Net) (0) (11) 12 15 (2) (9)
Direct taxes paid 55 60 20 41 89 104
Others 9 3 5 (3) 3 1
Cash Flow from Operations 123 110 198 386 312 309
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (86) (120) (259) (156) (223) (142)
(Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (189) (62) (82) (133) 0 0
Cash Flow from Investing (275) (182) (341) (290) (223) (142)
Issue of Equity (16) 0 0 (2) 0 0
Inc./(Dec.) in loans (4) 57 149 (49) (125) (29)
Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 7 8 11 8 10 8
Interest / Dividend (Net) (5) 10 2 (1) (2) (9)
Cash Flow from Financing (21) 39 136 (59) (133) (28)
Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (173) (33) (7) 38 (44) 138
Opening Cash balances 281 110 77 71 109 65
Closing Cash balances 107 77 71 109 65 203
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 10
Key Ratios
Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
Valuation Ratio (x)
P/E (on FDEPS) 40.0 38.2 193.7 27.1 20.4 17.8
P/CEPS 27.6 24.5 43.6 18.2 14.2 12.6
P/BV 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9
Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
EV/Sales 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.9
EV/EBITDA 23.4 23.8 47.7 16.0 11.5 9.7
EV / Total Assets 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.4
Per Share Data (`)
EPS (Basic) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3
EPS (fully diluted) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3
Cash EPS 6.0 6.8 3.8 9.1 11.7 13.1
DPS 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3
Book Value 32.6 36.4 36.2 41.3 49.1 58.0
Dupont analysis
EBIT margin 12.0 9.4 1.4 13.1 15.2 15.2
Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7
Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3
ROIC (Post-tax) 13.2 12.1 0.9 16.8 23.4 24.0
Cost of Debt (Post-tax) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
Leverage (x) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3)
Operating ROE 10.3 9.9 0.8 14.4 16.6 15.8
Returns (%)
RoCE 13.5 11.0 1.6 14.5 19.6 20.4
Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 12.7 11.0 0.8 18.2 21.8 23.2
RoE 13.3 12.5 2.4 15.8 18.0 17.4
Turnover ratios (x)
Asset Turnover 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5
Inventory / Sales (days) 36.2 35.0 47.6 31.0 31.7 32.4
Receivables (days) 52.1 60.2 59.6 62.6 61.9 60.8
Payables (days) 67.0 77.6 141.7 164.7 161.3 157.4
Net Working capital (days) 34.0 49.2 23.6 (26.8) (25.4) (19.7)
Solvency ratios (x)
Net Debt to equity (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4)
Net Debt to EBITDA (1.0) (0.7) (0.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.3)
Interest Coverage 8.4 6.3 0.6 6.3 14.3 19.4
HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update
October 28, 2010 11
Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com
Disclaimer
This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
risks of such an investment.
Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.
Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
fundamentals.
The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.
Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
the past.
Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
connection with the use of this information.
Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the
latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have
investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.
Disclosure of Interest Statement HTML
1. Analyst ownership of the stock No
2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No
3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No
4. Broking relationship with company covered No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%)
Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)

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Ht media ru2 qfy2011-281010

  • 1. Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1 (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1QFY11 %qoq Revenue 431.0 349.6 23.3 402.8 7.0 EBITDA 64.5 50.8 27.1 78.6 (17.9) OPM (%) 15.0 14.5 45bp 19.5 (453bp) PAT 42.1 23.7 77.7 40.2 4.7 Source: Company, Angel Research We have revised our estimates upwards: 1) revised revenue estimates for FY2011 by 1.3% to factor in higher revenue traction from the Burda JV which is offset by lower-than-expected circulation revenues reported by the company this quarter, 2) revised consolidated earnings to factor in the company’s focus on cost rationalization, incremental newsprint cost due to the Burda JV (negative impact), high other income and lower interest expense. We recommend Accumulate on the stock. Burda JV drives top-line, bottom line buoyed by other income and OPM expansion: HT Media posted mixed set of numbers both on the revenue and profitability front. Top-line growth was 23% yoy to `431cr, aided by significant revenue traction from Burda (~`28cr) and a modest 14% yoy increase in core revenues (advertisement grew 16.8% yoy, circulation de-grew by 12.7% yoy). Recurring earnings grew a robust 77.7% yoy albeit on account of significant increase in other income and margin expansion (margins expanded despite contraction in gross margin by 298bp yoy). Outlook and Valuation: HTML continued to show resilience in its new businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive cost rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive and achieved EBIT breakeven despite additional cost of ~`30-40lakh incurred towards their new property, Ramayana), trickle–down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12) will help HTML post higher margins (~20%) during FY2011/12. At the CMP of `165, HTML is trading at 17.8x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of `9.3. Owing to significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and incremental revenue traction on the back of improvement in advertising spends across sectors, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `186 based on 20x FY2012E earnings. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012 % chg 11.9 4.9 24.8 14.1 Net Profit (Adj) 20.0 143.5 191.1 218.8 % chg (80.3) 617.3 33.1 14.5 EBITDA margin (%) 6.5 18.1 19.9 19.7 EPS (`) 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3 P/E (x) 193.7 27.1 20.4 17.8 P/BV (x) 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 RoE (%) 2.4 15.8 18.0 17.4 RoCE (%) 1.6 14.5 19.6 20.4 EV/Sales (x) 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 47.7 16.0 11.5 9.7 Source: Company, Angel Research ACCUMULATE CMP `165 Target Price `186 Investment Period 12 months Stock Info Sector Print Media Market Cap (Rs cr) 3,891 Beta 0.6 52 Week High / Low 186/156 Avg. Daily Volume 39,436 Face Value (Rs) 2.0 BSE Sensex 19,941 Nifty 5,988 Reuters Code HTML.BO Bloomberg Code HTML@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 68.8 MF / Banks / Indian Fls 15.7 FII / NRIs / OCBs 12.5 Indian Public / Others 3.0 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex 11.0 22.5 3.6 HTML 4.2 28.6 (22.8) Anand Shah 022-4040 3800-334 anand.shah@angelbroking.com Chitrangda Kapur 022-4040 3800-323 chitrangdar.kapur@angelbroking.com Sreekanth P.V.S 022 – 4040 3800 Ext: 331 sreekanth.s@angelbroking.com HT Media Performance Highlights 2QFY2011 Result Update | Media October 28, 2010
  • 2. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 2 Exhibit 1: Quarterly Performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1QFY11 % qoq 1HFY2011 1HFY2010 % chg Net Sales 431.0 349.6 23.3 402.8 7.0 833.9 679.2 22.8 Consumption of RM 164.9 123.4 33.7 130.3 26.6 295.2 247.0 19.5 (% of Sales) 38.3 35.3 32.3 35.4 36.4 Staff Costs 73.4 62.2 18.0 74.9 (2.0) 148.4 126.8 17.0 (% of Sales) 17.0 17.8 18.6 17.8 18.7 Advertising 32.3 34.3 (5.9) 28.5 13.0 60.8 53.8 13.1 (% of Sales) 7.5 9.8 7.1 7.3 7.9 Other Expenses 95.9 79.0 21.4 90.5 5.9 186.4 150.0 24.3 (% of Sales) 22.2 22.6 22.5 22.4 22.1 Total Expenditure 366.5 298.9 22.6 324.3 13.0 690.8 577.6 19.6 Operating Profit 64.5 50.8 27.1 78.6 (17.9) 143.1 101.6 40.9 OPM (%) 15.0 14.5 19.5 17.2 15.0 Interest 5.5 7.4 (26.0) 6.4 (14.5) 11.9 15.3 (22.2) Depreciation 21.1 18.7 13.1 19.4 8.7 40.5 36.2 12.1 Other Income 20.7 3.3 520.1 7.2 188.0 27.8 17.0 64.0 PBT (excl. Ext Items) 58.6 28.1 108.8 59.9 (2.2) 118.5 67.1 76.6 Ext Income/(Expense) - - - - - PBT (incl. Ext Items) 58.6 28.1 108.8 59.9 (2.2) 118.5 67.1 76.6 (% of Sales) 13.6 8.0 14.9 14.2 9.9 Provision for Taxation 16.6 4.4 277.0 19.8 (16.2) 36.3 15.5 135.0 (% of PBT) 28.2 15.6 33.0 30.6 23.0 Recurring PAT 42.1 23.7 77.7 40.2 4.7 82.2 51.6 59.2 PATM 9.8 6.8 10.0 9.9 7.6 Minority Interest 3.3 (0.4) (1.2) 2.0 (1.2) Reported PAT 38.8 24.1 60.9 41.4 (6.2) 80.2 52.8 51.8 Equity shares (cr) 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 EPS (`) 1.7 1.0 60.9 1.8 (6.2) 3.4 2.2 51.8 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 2: Revenue highlights (Consolidated) (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % yoy 1QFY11 % qoq Consolidated sales 431.0 349.6 23.3 402.8 7.0 Hindi 125.7 102.6 22.5 132.8 (5.3) English 305.3 247.0 23.6 270.0 13.1 Advertising 329.4 282.1 16.8 328.6 0.2 Hindi 91.4 70.6 29.5 96.3 (5.1) English 238.0 211.5 12.5 232.3 2.5 Circulation 41.8 47.9 (12.7) 46.8 (10.7) Hindi 28.8 30.4 (5.3) 32.3 (10.8) English 13.0 17.5 (25.7) 14.5 (10.3) Radio 14.1 9.8 43.9 12.3 14.5 Internet 2.7 1.0 170.0 2.0 35.0 Core revenue 388.0 340.8 13.8 389.7 (0.4) Others 43.0 8.8 387.0 13.1 227.5 Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 3. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 3 Top-line growth strong at 23% led by ~20%+ growth in both English and Hindi HT Media posted a strong top-line growth of 23% yoy to `431cr (`350cr) driven by 23.6% yoy growth in English and 22.5% yoy growth in Hindi. On a sequential basis, however, Hindustan reported a decline of 5% in advertising revenue on account of the seasonality factor (2QFY2010 partly captured the festive season), while for English print the advertising revenue was modest at 2.5%. Circulation revenue recorded a decline of 12.7% yoy/10.7% qoq to `41.8cr. Both English print and Hindustan reported a yoy decline of 25.7% and 5.3% respectively, in circulation. While Hindustan’s circulation revenue decline maybe attributed to increase in competitive intensity in its core Bihar/Jharkhand market leading to lower realisation (with the entry of DB Corp in Ranchi, the cover price of Hindustan was slashed to `2), the English print circulation suffered on account of higher discounts/free trial subscription copies distributed in the markets of Mumbai, Punjab, UP and some parts in Delhi. As part of the company strategy, management has indicated that they would strive to garner higher advertising revenue going forward by focusing on attaining higher readership irrespective of the circulation. Exhibit 3: Top-line growth (Consolidated) Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 4: English/Hindi Ad-rev. up 13%/30% Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 5: Circulation rev. declines 12.7% Source: Company, Angel Research 344 338 330 350 359 374 403 431 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (`cr) 282 286 302 329 329 (5) - 5 10 15 20 25 - 100 200 300 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) (`cr) Ad Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS) 48 51 43 47 42 (20) (10) - 10 20 30 40 - 10 20 30 40 50 60 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 (%) (`cr) Circ Revenue (LHS) YoY growth (RHS)
  • 4. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 4 Amongst other segments, the new businesses registered significant revenue traction. The radio business reported robust top-line growth of 43.7% yoy to `14.1cr (`9.8cr) on account of increased advertising, while the internet business contributed `2.7cr to overall revenues. Management has indicated that the Burda JV contributed `28cr to revenues in its first full quarter of operation. We expect the Burda JV to contribute ~`75cr to FY2011 top-line. Bumper earnings despite jump in tax rate, aided by other income In terms of earnings, HT Media posted a robust growth of 77.7% yoy to `42cr (`24cr) on a recurring basis and 60.9% yoy growth to `39cr (`24cr) on a reported basis, despite the spike in the tax rate (up 1,260bp yoy) and depreciation cost (up 13.1% yoy), aided by significant 520% yoy increase in other income (spike on account of higher interest and dividend income and a profit of ~`2.5cr booked through divestment of private treaties), 26% yoy decline in interest expense and margin expansion. Moreover, the losses in internet business have reduced (reported an operating loss of `8.5cr in 2QFY2011 compared to `9.5cr in 2QFY2010), while radio has reported an operating profit of `1.6cr.   Exhibit 6: NPM to sustain at ~10% in FY2011 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 7: Sequentially Gross margins contracts OPM Source: Company, Angel Research OPM expands on cost rationalisation At the operating level, HT Media posted a modest 45bp yoy expansion in operating margins, driving 27% yoy growth in operating profit to `64.5cr, aided by various cost rationalisation measures adopted by the company, which saw decline in staff cost (down 76bp yoy/156bp qoq), advertising spend (down 232bp yoy/qoq increase of 40bp) and other expenses (down 35bp yoy/23bp qoq). However, a significant 298bp yoy/592bp qoq contraction in gross margin on account of hardening newsprint costs and operating loss for Burda JV (recorded newsprint cost of ~`24cr this quarter) curtailed further OPM expansion. In terms of segments, HTML recorded EBIT margin expansion of 327bp yoy to 14% (10.7%), aided by the company’s print business (recorded EBIT of `70cr and margin expansion of 199bp yoy to 16.7%) and decrease in the losses of internet businesses, while radio achieved breakeven with a marginal `0.5cr profit (loss of `2.4cr) at EBIT level. (2) - 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 (10) - 10 20 30 40 50 3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11 (%) (`cr) Recurring PAT (LHS) NPM (RHS) 5.7 (6.1) 15.4 15.5 18.8 21.9 19.5 15.0 56.5 59.8 62.5 64.7 68.4 69.1 67.7 61.7 (20.0) - 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 3QFY09 1QFY10 3QFY10 1QFY11 (%) OPM Gross Margins
  • 5. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 5 Exhibit 8: Segmental Performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (` cr) 2QFY11 2QFY10 % chg 1HFY2011 1HFY2010 % chg Revenue Printing 417.7 339.6 23.0 808.8 667.0 21.3 Radio 14.1 9.8 43.7 26.4 18.7 41.4 Internet 2.7 1.0 179.4 4.7 1.7 176.5 Total Revenue 434.6 350.4 24.0 839.9 687.4 22.2 Less: Inter segment 1.3 0.7 3.3 1.3 Less: Other Op Inc 12.7 0.3 13.9 0.5 Total Net sales 420.6 349.3 20.4 822.7 685.6 20.0 EBIT Printing 69.9 50.0 39.6 148.4 105.3 40.9 Radio 0.5 (2.4) (0.7) (5.2) Internet (9.4) (10.0) (18.2) (19.5) Total EBIT 60.9 37.6 61.8 129.5 80.7 60.5 EBIT Margin (%) 14.0 10.7 327 15.4 11.7 Source: Company, Angel Research Investment Rationale Incremental growth in ad revenue, Burda JV to scale up top-line: HTML recorded a rebound in ad-revenue this quarter, with a yoy growth of 23.6% in English print and 22.5% yoy in Hindi print, despite 2QFY2010 partially capturing the festive season. The increase was primarily driven by volume growth and a marginal improvement in yield. With the up-tick in economy, we estimate this growth in ad-revenue to sustain, with the English (HT Times and Mint) and Hindi print businesses (HMVL) posting a CAGR of 15.6% and 26% over FY2010–12, respectively. While Hindustan’s ad–revenue will grow maximum in UP (we peg a CAGR of ~32% over FY2010–12), HT Mumbai will be the maximum growth driver for the English print’s ad-revenue (we peg a CAGR of ~15% over FY2010–12). Moreover, FY2011 will be the first full operational year for the Burda JV and we estimate it to contribute ~`75cr to top-line in FY2011. Resilience in new business to continue, expect OPM of ~20% in FY1011/12: In terms of operating performance, HTML continued to show resilience in its new businesses this quarter (radio and internet gained traction). Moreover, aggressive cost rationalisation in the radio business (continues to be EBITDA positive and achieved EBIT breakeven despite additional cost of ~`30-40lakh incurred towards their new property, Ramayana), trickle–down effect of higher revenue traction and benign newsprint price environment (factoring in ~10% rise during FY2010-12E) will help HTML post higher margins (~20%) during FY2011/12. Balance sheet to remain healthy, we peg cash to swell to ~`200cr+ in FY2012: HTML has shown significant turnaround in the net working capital in FY2010, with improvement in both inventory and debtor turnover. Going forward, for our FY2011 and FY2012 estimates, we expect the company to sustain its negative working capital cycle, thus increasing its cash surplus. As of 2QFY2011, the company recorded ~`91cr of cash in its books, which we peg it to swell to ~`200cr by FY2012. Hence, we believe that HTML is extremely well placed in terms of funding its expansion plans and continuing investing in its growing business, owing to a low debt:equity of ~0.2x and low working capital requirement.
  • 6. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 6 Outlook and Valuation We have revised upwards our revenue expectations for FY2011 by 1.3% to factor in higher revenue traction from Burda JV - we expect Burda JV to contribute `75cr in top-line (earlier estimated `60cr), but offset by lower-than-expected circulation revenues reported by the company (pruned the consolidated circulation revenues to ~`170cr). The consolidated earnings are revised upwards to factor in: 1) saving through the cost rationalisation initiatives taken by the company in terms of advertisement spend and staff cost but, offset by incremental newsprint cost due to Burda JV (expect cost to be 75% of estimated Burda’s revenues), 2) high other income, and 3) lower interest expense as the company pays off its debt. Exhibit 9: Change in estimates Parameter Old Estimate New Estimate % chg (` cr) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Revenue 1,741 2,014 1,763 2,012 1.3 (0.1) OPM (%) 19.8 20.3 19.9 19.7 7bp (61bp) EPS (`) 7.6 9.3 8.1 9.3 6.9 0.1 Source: Company, Angel Research At CMP of `165, HTML is trading at 17.8x FY2012E revised consolidated EPS of `9.3. Owing to significant improvement in profitability of its growing businesses and incremental revenue traction on the back of improvement in advertising spend across sectors, we recommend Accumulate on the stock with a Target Price of `186 based on 20x FY2012E earnings. Downside risks to our estimates include – 1) Sharp rise in newsprint prices, 2) Increased competition, and 3) Higher-than-expected losses or re-investment in growing businesses (Radio, Mint and Internet).
  • 7. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 7 Exhibit 10: Key Assumptions - Revenue (` cr) FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E CAGR (%) Advt Revenues 1,133 1,141 1,407 1,600 18.4 HT Times/ Mint 890 844 1,006 1,129 15.6 Hindustan 244 297 400 471 26.0 Circ Revenues 154 183 170 201 4.6 HT Times/ Mint 49 63 53 55 (6.6) Hindustan 105 121 118 146 10.0 Radio Revenues 29 41 63 75 34.9 Burda JV - 5 75 85 297.5 Others 30 42 48 52 10.9 Total Revenue 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012 19.3 Yoy growth (%) Advt Revenues 11.9 0.7 23.3 13.7 HT Times/ Mint 5.0 (5.1) 19.2 12.2 Hindustan 47.7 21.5 35.0 17.6 Circ Revenues 2.5 19.0 (7.1) 17.8 HT Times/ Mint (7.5) 27.6 (16.0) 3.9 Hindustan 8.0 15.0 (2.5) 24.1 Radio Revenues 54.3 42.1 52.9 19.0 Burda JV 1,294.1 13.3 Others 39.4 39.8 13.5 8.3 % of Total Advt revenue 84.2 80.8 79.8 79.5 Circ Revenues 11.4 13.0 9.7 10.0 Radio Revenues 2.2 2.9 3.6 3.7 Burda JV - 0.4 4.3 4.2 Others 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.6 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Peer Valuation Company Reco Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) EV/Sales (x) RoE (%) CAGR # (` cr) (`) (`) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT HT Media Accumulate 3,891 165 186 12.7 20.4 17.8 2.3 1.9 18.0 17.4 19.3 26.9 Jagran Buy 3,923 130 154 18.5 20.2 16.8 3.7 3.2 30.6 33.9 14.7 15.1 DCHL Buy 3,175 130 193 48.5 11.3 9.9 2.2 2.0 20.9 21.1 11.8 10.7 Source: Company, Angel Research, Note:^ denotes consensus data, # denotes CAGR for FY2010-12E Exhibit 12: Angel v/s Consensus estimates Top-line (` cr) FY2011E FY2012E EPS (`) FY2011E FY2012E Angel estimates 1,763 2,012 Angel estimates 8.1 9.3 Consensus 1,651 1,868 Consensus 7.7 9.4 Diff (%) 6.8 7.7 Diff (%) 6.0 (1.2) Source: Company, Angel Research
  • 8. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 8 Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) ` crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Gross sales 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012 Less: Excise duty - - - - - - Net Sales 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012 Total operating income 1,040 1,203 1,347 1,413 1,763 2,012 % chg 26.1 15.7 11.9 4.9 24.8 14.1 Total Expenditure 871 1,033 1,259 1,158 1,413 1,616 Cost of Materials 465 497 595 515 667 790 SG&A 206 289 354 318 390 438 Personnel 160 198 242 252 264 292 Others 41 49 68 72 92 97 EBITDA 169 170 88 255 350 396 % chg 41.8 0.7 (48.3) 190.6 37.1 13.1 (% of Net Sales) 16.2 14.1 6.5 18.1 19.9 19.7 Depreciation& Amortisation 44 57 69 71 83 90 EBIT 125 113 19 185 267 306 % chg 57.7 (9.7) (83.1) 868.5 44.7 14.5 (% of Net Sales) 12.0 9.4 1.4 13.1 15.2 15.2 Interest & other Charges 15 18 32 30 19 16 Other Income 37 44 33 41 49 56 (% of PBT) 25.0 31.6 166.6 20.9 16.5 16.2 Share in profit of Associates - - - - - - Recurring PBT 147 139 20 196 298 346 % chg 78.1 (5.3) (85.7) 888.4 51.8 16.4 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) (0) - 19 8 - - PBT (reported) 147 139 1 188 298 346 Tax 55 38 12 54 89 104 (% of PBT) 37.2 27.1 62.9 27.4 30.0 30.0 PAT (reported) 92 101 (12) 135 208 242 Add: Share of associates - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) (5) 0 (13) (1) 17 24 PAT after MI (reported) 97 101 1 136 191 219 ADJ. PAT 97 101 20 144 191 219 % chg 64.4 4.6 (80.3) 617.3 33.1 14.5 (% of Net Sales) 9.3 8.4 1.5 10.2 10.8 10.9 Basic EPS (`) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3 Fully Diluted EPS (`) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3 % chg 63.8 4.6 (80.3) 617.3 33.1 14.5
  • 9. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 9 Balance Sheet (Consolidated) ` crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 47 47 47 47 47 47 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 717 806 802 924 1,107 1,318 Shareholders Funds 764 853 849 971 1,154 1,365 Minority Interest 0 0 (7) 22 39 63 Total Loans 166 223 371 313 188 158 Deferred Tax Liability 27 12 21 18 18 18 Total Liabilities 957 1,088 1,233 1,323 1,398 1,603 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 614 701 823 1,033 1,237 1,364 Less: Acc. Depreciation 124 177 247 322 405 495 Net Block 490 524 576 712 833 870 Capital Work-in-Progress 31 59 196 129 148 164 Goodwill - - - - - - Investments 229 266 304 475 475 475 Current Assets 418 520 698 670 772 1,009 Cash 110 77 71 109 65 203 Loans & Advances 56 129 232 200 256 292 Other 252 314 396 362 452 514 Current liabilities 211 280 540 666 831 915 Net Current Assets 207 240 158 5 (58) 94 Misc Exp 0 0 - 2 - - Total Assets 957 1,088 1,233 1,323 1,398 1,603 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) ` crore Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax 147 139 1 189 298 346 Depreciation 44 57 69 71 83 90 Change in Working Capital (22) (19) 132 155 20 (15) Interest / Dividend (Net) (0) (11) 12 15 (2) (9) Direct taxes paid 55 60 20 41 89 104 Others 9 3 5 (3) 3 1 Cash Flow from Operations 123 110 198 386 312 309 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (86) (120) (259) (156) (223) (142) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (189) (62) (82) (133) 0 0 Cash Flow from Investing (275) (182) (341) (290) (223) (142) Issue of Equity (16) 0 0 (2) 0 0 Inc./(Dec.) in loans (4) 57 149 (49) (125) (29) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 7 8 11 8 10 8 Interest / Dividend (Net) (5) 10 2 (1) (2) (9) Cash Flow from Financing (21) 39 136 (59) (133) (28) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (173) (33) (7) 38 (44) 138 Opening Cash balances 281 110 77 71 109 65 Closing Cash balances 107 77 71 109 65 203
  • 10. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 10 Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 40.0 38.2 193.7 27.1 20.4 17.8 P/CEPS 27.6 24.5 43.6 18.2 14.2 12.6 P/BV 5.1 4.5 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 Dividend yield (%) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 EV/Sales 3.8 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.3 1.9 EV/EBITDA 23.4 23.8 47.7 16.0 11.5 9.7 EV / Total Assets 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.4 Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3 EPS (fully diluted) 4.1 4.3 0.9 6.1 8.1 9.3 Cash EPS 6.0 6.8 3.8 9.1 11.7 13.1 DPS 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 Book Value 32.6 36.4 36.2 41.3 49.1 58.0 Dupont analysis EBIT margin 12.0 9.4 1.4 13.1 15.2 15.2 Tax retention ratio 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 ROIC (Post-tax) 13.2 12.1 0.9 16.8 23.4 24.0 Cost of Debt (Post-tax) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 Leverage (x) (0.2) (0.2) (0.1) (0.1) (0.3) (0.3) Operating ROE 10.3 9.9 0.8 14.4 16.6 15.8 Returns (%) RoCE 13.5 11.0 1.6 14.5 19.6 20.4 Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) 12.7 11.0 0.8 18.2 21.8 23.2 RoE 13.3 12.5 2.4 15.8 18.0 17.4 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.5 Inventory / Sales (days) 36.2 35.0 47.6 31.0 31.7 32.4 Receivables (days) 52.1 60.2 59.6 62.6 61.9 60.8 Payables (days) 67.0 77.6 141.7 164.7 161.3 157.4 Net Working capital (days) 34.0 49.2 23.6 (26.8) (25.4) (19.7) Solvency ratios (x) Net Debt to equity (0.2) (0.1) (0.0) (0.3) (0.3) (0.4) Net Debt to EBITDA (1.0) (0.7) (0.0) (1.1) (1.0) (1.3) Interest Coverage 8.4 6.3 0.6 6.3 14.3 19.4
  • 11. HT Media|2QFY2011 Result Update October 28, 2010 11 Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com Disclaimer This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement HTML 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%)