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Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
Anand Rathi Research India Equities
Technology
Company Update
India I Equities
Mohit Jain
Research Analyst
+9122 6626 6531
mohitjain@rathi.com
Shobit Singhal
Research Associate
+9122 6626 6511
shobitsinghal@rathi.com
Key financials (YE Mar) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Sales (` m) 6,087 8,065 9,110 10,030 11,503
Net profit (` m) -829 -411 -243 521 938
EPS (`) -8.3 -3.9 -2.3 4.0 7.3
Growth (%) - NM NM NM 80.0
PE (x) NM NM NM 24.5 13.6
PBV (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4
RoE (%) -12.5 -6.6 -3.3 7.2 10.5
RoCE (%) -15.6 -9.8 -5.7 6.7 9.5
Dividend yield (%) - - - - -
Net debt/equity (x) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
`
Rating: Buy
Target Price: `150
Share Price: `99
Key data INDA IN / INEE.BO
52-week high / low `197 / `97
Sensex / Nifty 31214 / 9711
3-m average volume $0.9m
Market cap `11bn / $168m
Shares outstanding 102m
Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'17 Mar'17 Dec'16
Promoters 29.4 29.4 29.6
- of which, Pledged -
Free float 70.6 70.6 70.4
- Foreign institutions 11.9 11.1 8.0
- Domestic institutions 7.9 7.4 7.6
- Public 50.9 52.1 54.9
Change in EstimatesTargetReco
14 August 2017
Intellect Design Arena
Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy
Intellect had a stable Q1: revenue at $37.4m, flat q/q, up 22% y/y, in
line with estimates. The benefits of more revenue and a high operating-
leverage-driven model resulted in a much higher Q1 FY18 adj EBITDA
margin of 5.6% (-6.5% a year ago). With costs now stable, it had a
second consecutive quarter of profits. We retain a Buy but reduce our
target to `150 (1.6x FY19 EV:sales) from `175 earlier, on 23% rights
dilution and currency movements.
Steady cost structures. Intellect suffered from variability in both revenue and
cost till Q3 FY17. Revenue, at this scale, will arguably be volatile for a few more
quarters but is clearly trending up (FY15: $99m; FY18e $156m, all organic). The
company achieved stable costs (and positive EBITDA) in the last six months
and now doesn’t anticipate further increases. Therefore, a large part (~70%) of
further revenue should flow to EBITDA, from Q2 FY18.
Low tangible and stable R&D capex (of `1bn) to drive FCF in FY19.
Intellect’s capex on infrastructure is complete. It now expects just `400m-
500m maintenance capex (down 40% from FY16). This, coupled with a ~7-
day reduction in receivables (to 155) and rights proceeds (`2bn) will make for
a comfortable balance sheet. We estimate it should turn FCF positive in
FY19.
Amortisation to start from H2 FY18. Intellect may see an increase in D&A
expenditure from H2 FY18 as amortisation of capitalised R&D kicks in. This
is done over a period of five years from the date of launch of a product and is
built into our estimates.
Retaining a Buy; estimate changes reflect currency movements. We
retain our revenue estimates largely, but lower EBITDA by ~5%, primarily
due to currency movements. We also build in a 23% dilution due to the rights
issue at `86 a share (14% below the CMP). These changes lead to a new target
of `150 (1.6x FY19 EV:sales, a 15% discount to Majesco, reflecting lower
profitability). Risk: Sharp rupee appreciation.
Relative price performance
Source: Bloomberg
INDA
Sensex
0
50
100
150
200
250
Aug-16
Sep-16
Oct-16
Nov-16
Dec-16
Jan-17
Feb-17
Mar-17
Apr-17
May-17
Jun-17
Jul-17
Aug-17
Estimates revision (%) FY18e FY19e
Sales ($) 0.4 0.0
EBITDA (4.9) (4.8)
PAT (9.9) (8.4)
14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 2
Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations
Fig 1 – Income statement (` m)
Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Net revenues 6,087 8,065 9,110 10,030 11,503
Revenue growth (%) 14.3 32.5 12.9 10.1 14.7
- Oper. expenses 6,945 8,621 9,245 9,099 10,000
EBIDTA -857 -555 -136 932 1,503
EBITDA margins (%) -14.1 -6.9 -1.5 9.3 13.1
- Interest 8 12 113 105 46
- Depreciation 190 208 241 254 369
+ Other income 232 262 209 119 89
- Tax 17 -91 28 104 236
Effective tax rate (%) -2.1 18.1 -13.2 16.7 20.1
+ Associates / (minorities) 12 12 66 -67 -3
Adjusted PAT -829 -411 -243 521 938
+ Extraordinary items - - - - -
Reported PAT -829 -411 -243 521 938
Adj. FDEPS (` / sh) -8.3 -3.9 -2.3 4.0 7.3
Adj. FDEPS growth (%) -53.1 -40.8 NM 80.0
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (` m)
Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Adjusted PAT -829 -411 -243 521 938
+ Non-cash items 200 208 241 254 369
Cash profit -629 -203 -2 775 1,307
- Incr. / (decr.) in WC -710 1,021 417 -188 -293
Operating cash-flow 71 -1,224 -419 963 1,600
- Capex 250 921 1,020 1,538 1,384
Free cash-flow -179 -2,145 -1,439 -575 216
- Dividend -34 - - - -
+ Equity raised -6 409 36 1,987 -
+ Debt raised -721 36 2,159 -1,987 500
- Investments - -1,190 147 -374 -4
- Misc. items - - - - -
Net cash-flow 502 -510 609 -201 720
+ Op. cash & bank bal. 560 1,062 552 1,161 960
Cl. Cash & bank bal. 1,062 552 1,161 960 1,680
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Fig 5 – Price movement
Source: Bloomberg
Fig 2 – Balance sheet (` m)
Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
Share capital 501 504 509 624 624
Reserves & surplus 5,691 5,687 5,475 7,867 8,805
Net worth 6,192 6,190 5,983 8,491 9,429
Total debt 77 229 2,324 337 837
Minority interest 0 - - - -
Def. tax liab. (net) 51 -65 -1 -1 -1
Capital employed 6,321 6,355 8,306 8,828 10,265
Net fixed assets 1,794 2,578 2,002 2,266 2,261
Intangible assets 874 804 2,158 3,178 4,198
Investments 1,794 604 751 377 373
- of which, Liquid 1,514 294 371 1 1
Working capital 796 1,817 2,234 2,045 1,752
Cash 1,062 552 1,161 960 1,680
Capital deployed 6,321 6,355 8,306 8,828 10,265
Working capital (days) 48 82 90 74 56
Book value (` / sh) 62 59 57 66 73
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `99
Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e
P/E (x) NM NM NM 24.5 13.6
Cash P/E (x) NM NM NM 16.5 9.8
EV / EBITDA (x) -8.8 -16.9 -79.6 10.1 6.1
EV / sales (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8
P/B (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4
RoE (%) -12.5 -6.6 -3.3 7.2 10.5
RoCE (%) -15.6 -9.8 -5.7 6.7 9.5
Dividend yield (%) - - - - -
Dividend payout (%) - - - - -
Net debt / equity (x) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1
Debtor (days) 166.0 167.6 161.8 154.8 149.8
Inventory (days) - - - - -
Payables (days) 81.8 82.4 57.7 50.7 47.7
CFO:PAT % 20.9 262.3 243.0 180.1 167.3
CFO: sales % -2.9 -13.7 -7.1 10.6 13.7
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Fig 6 – Regional break-up of revenue
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
(`) North America
13%
Continental
Europe
40%
India
11%
ROW
36%
14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 3
Result Highlights
Q1 FY18 Results at a Glance
Fig 8 – Quarterly result (` m)
Year-end: Mar Q1 FY18 % q/q % y/y FY17 FY16 % y/y
Sales ($ m) 37 0.1 21.7 137 124 10.6
Sales 2,412 (3.7) 17.8 9,110 8,065 12.9
EBITDA 135 (13.4) NM (136) (555) NM
EBITDA margin (%) 5.6 -63 bps 1211 bps (1.5) (6.9) 540 bps
EBIT 77 (20.5) NM (377) (763) NM
EBIT margin (%) 3.2 -67 bps 1256 bps (4.1) (9.5) 532 bps
PBT 91 22.6 NM (239) (513) NM
Tax (36) NM 3.8 (28) 91 NM
Tax rate (%) (40.1) NM NM 11.9 (17.7) NM
Net Income 7 (95.0) NM (202) (411) NM
Source: Company
Fig 7 – Segment-wise results
Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q/q % Y/y %
Revenues ($ m) 31 35 34 37 37 0.1 21.7
Growth Y/y % 1 10 14 16 22 524bps 2055bps
Revenues (` m) 2,048 2,294 2,265 2,504 2,412 -3.7 17.8
Eff. exchange rate 66.6 65.2 67.5 67.0 64.5 -3.8 -3.2
Employees (EoP) -est 4,220 4,240 4,200 4,180 4,280 2.4 1.4
Revenue Productivity ($ ‘000/employee) 7.3 8.3 8.0 8.9 8.7 -2.2 20.0
CoR (excluding D&A) (1,648) (1,793) (1,857) (1,794) (1,774) -1.1 7.7
As % of revenue -80 -78 -82 -72 -74 -190bps 692bps
SG&A (533) (516) (552) (553) (502) -9.2 -5.7
As % of revenue -26 -22 -24 -22 -21 127bps 519bps
EBITDA (133) (14) (145) 156 135 -13.4 NM
EBITDA margin % -6 -1 -6 6 6 -63bps 1211bps
EBIT -192 -75 -206 96 77 -20.5 NM
EBIT margin % -9 -3 -9 4 3 -67bps 1256bps
Other Income 175 (48) 106 18 56 213.9 -68.2
Forex gain / loss 142 15 50 (70) 10
PBT -33 -147 -133 74 91 22.6 NM
PBT margin % -2 -6 -6 3 4 81bps 536bps
Taxes (35) (27) (37) 71 (36) NM 3.8
ETR % 107 18 28 95 -40 NM NM
PAT (68) (174) (170) 145 54 -62.4 NM
PAT margin % -3 -8 -8 6 2 -352bps 556bps
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Note: Analyst judgement used for R&D costs. May not match with the reported numbers. This is to normalize reported numbers for management discretion on capitalization and expensing out.
14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 4
Conference call takeaways/other
details
There was no conference call in Q1 FY18 as the company was in a rights
issue process.
Here are the other details from results:
 The business environment overall continues to be strong for BFSI
products as judged by the deal pipeline. Therefore, Intellect’s revenue
continues to scale up. We expect it to end the year with a comfortable
14% revenue growth in dollar terms.
 The rights issue closed on 9th Aug’17.
 R&D expenditure continues at ~`1bn a year. In Q1 FY18, there seems
to be additional capitalisation of `26m compared to Q4 FY17. This
benefitted the reported EBITDA by the same amount.
 Intellect has a workforce of ~4,300, of which 1,500-1,600 are deployed
in R&D (new product developments).
 The tax rate is a function of which subsidiaries and regions are turning
profitable. Therefore, “percent” may be misleading regarding an
effective tax rate. In absolute terms, the tax rate may hold at similar
levels as in Q1 FY18.
 The Bangladesh subsidiary had a large proportion of revenues this
quarter and that led to the dramatic increase in minority interest for the
quarter. This will be normalized from next quarter.
 Capex would be low as infrastructure needs are complete and the
business model is non-linear. R&D will be the major recurring capex.
 Amortisation of new software will start in Q2 FY18 and increase
overall depreciation in FY19. We expect `130m amortization vs.
`1,000m R&D capitalisation in FY19.
Fig 9 – Intellect Design – License Revenues (US$m)
Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
1QFY15
2QFY15
3QFY15
4QFY15
1QFY16
2QFY16
3QFY16
4QFY16
1QFY17
2QFY17
3QFY17
4QFY17
1QFY18
License + AMC Implementation and Support
US$m
14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 5
Valuations
We have valued the stock on EV/sales, of 1.6x FY19e and an implied PE
of 20x. We retain our Buy recommendation with a new target of `150,
reflecting our optimism regarding Intellect’s ability to scale up revenues and
the efficacy of the cost-management programs in Q4 FY17 and Q1 FY18.
The company needs to deliver growth to create value and generate returns
for shareholders. Since most of its costs are fixed, it tends to suffer greater
losses in periods of slow growth (as in most of FY17). We believe that, at
this stage, the single most important variable for it is revenue growth. We,
therefore, continue to value it on EV:sales.
Capex is almost complete and will continue to trend lower, at ~`300m-
400m, further requirement being restricted to new-product development,
estimated at `1bn a year.
Revenue growth is coming along well, adjusted for overall weakness in the
industry. Margins are also turning out to be better now as the company
focuses on cost rationalisation and balances out disproportionate spending
on SG&A.
The positive thing about Intellect is that it can, at its discretion, decide to
cut costs as and when needed; it exercised this option in Q4 FY17 to
demonstrate the profitability of the underlying business model. We saw this
continued focus on managing costs in Q1 FY18.
Fig 10 – Change in estimates
FY18 FY19
(` m) New Old Chg % New Old Chg %
Revenues ($ m) 156 155 0.4 178 178 -
Revenues 10,030 10,383 (3.4) 11,503 11,957 (3.8)
EBITDA 932 980 (4.9) 1,503 1,578 (4.8)
EBITDA margin % 9.3 9.4 -15 bps 13.1 13.2 -13 bps
EBIT 678 734 (7.6) 1,133 1,302 (13.0)
EBIT margin % 6.8 7.1 -31 bps 9.9 10.9 -104 bps
PBT 693 768 (9.8) 1,177 1,283 (8.3)
Net Profit 588 653 (9.9) 940 1,026 (8.4)
Source: Anand Rathi Research
Fig 11 – 1-year forward EV/Sales
Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy
Anand Rathi Research 6
Risks
 Business: Intellect operates in an industry (BFSI/discretionary
spending), currently traversing some turbulence on account of BRexit.
Its revenue targets/guidance may be affected by some of these
unforeseen circumstances. Of its revenue, 33% arises from Europe.
 Sharp rupee appreciation.
Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research
analyst(s) in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have
no bearing whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.
Important Disclosures on subject companies
Rating and Target Price History (as of 14 August 2017)
Date Rating
TP
(`)
Share
Price (`)
1 01-Oct-15 Buy 230 171
2 04-Apr-16 Buy 290 236
3 07-Feb-17 Buy 175 133
Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions
Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described
in the Ratings Table below:
Ratings Guide (12 months)
Buy Hold Sell
Large Caps (>US$1bn) >15% 5-15% <5%
Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) >25% 5-25% <5%
Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014
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INDA
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Anand Rathi Research Lowers Target on Intellect Design to Rs 150 on Rights Dilution; Maintains Buy

  • 1. Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst certifications are present in the Appendix. Anand Rathi Research India Equities Technology Company Update India I Equities Mohit Jain Research Analyst +9122 6626 6531 mohitjain@rathi.com Shobit Singhal Research Associate +9122 6626 6511 shobitsinghal@rathi.com Key financials (YE Mar) FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e Sales (` m) 6,087 8,065 9,110 10,030 11,503 Net profit (` m) -829 -411 -243 521 938 EPS (`) -8.3 -3.9 -2.3 4.0 7.3 Growth (%) - NM NM NM 80.0 PE (x) NM NM NM 24.5 13.6 PBV (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 RoE (%) -12.5 -6.6 -3.3 7.2 10.5 RoCE (%) -15.6 -9.8 -5.7 6.7 9.5 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Net debt/equity (x) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research ` Rating: Buy Target Price: `150 Share Price: `99 Key data INDA IN / INEE.BO 52-week high / low `197 / `97 Sensex / Nifty 31214 / 9711 3-m average volume $0.9m Market cap `11bn / $168m Shares outstanding 102m Shareholding pattern (%) Jun'17 Mar'17 Dec'16 Promoters 29.4 29.4 29.6 - of which, Pledged - Free float 70.6 70.6 70.4 - Foreign institutions 11.9 11.1 8.0 - Domestic institutions 7.9 7.4 7.6 - Public 50.9 52.1 54.9 Change in EstimatesTargetReco 14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy Intellect had a stable Q1: revenue at $37.4m, flat q/q, up 22% y/y, in line with estimates. The benefits of more revenue and a high operating- leverage-driven model resulted in a much higher Q1 FY18 adj EBITDA margin of 5.6% (-6.5% a year ago). With costs now stable, it had a second consecutive quarter of profits. We retain a Buy but reduce our target to `150 (1.6x FY19 EV:sales) from `175 earlier, on 23% rights dilution and currency movements. Steady cost structures. Intellect suffered from variability in both revenue and cost till Q3 FY17. Revenue, at this scale, will arguably be volatile for a few more quarters but is clearly trending up (FY15: $99m; FY18e $156m, all organic). The company achieved stable costs (and positive EBITDA) in the last six months and now doesn’t anticipate further increases. Therefore, a large part (~70%) of further revenue should flow to EBITDA, from Q2 FY18. Low tangible and stable R&D capex (of `1bn) to drive FCF in FY19. Intellect’s capex on infrastructure is complete. It now expects just `400m- 500m maintenance capex (down 40% from FY16). This, coupled with a ~7- day reduction in receivables (to 155) and rights proceeds (`2bn) will make for a comfortable balance sheet. We estimate it should turn FCF positive in FY19. Amortisation to start from H2 FY18. Intellect may see an increase in D&A expenditure from H2 FY18 as amortisation of capitalised R&D kicks in. This is done over a period of five years from the date of launch of a product and is built into our estimates. Retaining a Buy; estimate changes reflect currency movements. We retain our revenue estimates largely, but lower EBITDA by ~5%, primarily due to currency movements. We also build in a 23% dilution due to the rights issue at `86 a share (14% below the CMP). These changes lead to a new target of `150 (1.6x FY19 EV:sales, a 15% discount to Majesco, reflecting lower profitability). Risk: Sharp rupee appreciation. Relative price performance Source: Bloomberg INDA Sensex 0 50 100 150 200 250 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Estimates revision (%) FY18e FY19e Sales ($) 0.4 0.0 EBITDA (4.9) (4.8) PAT (9.9) (8.4)
  • 2. 14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy Anand Rathi Research 2 Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations Fig 1 – Income statement (` m) Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e Net revenues 6,087 8,065 9,110 10,030 11,503 Revenue growth (%) 14.3 32.5 12.9 10.1 14.7 - Oper. expenses 6,945 8,621 9,245 9,099 10,000 EBIDTA -857 -555 -136 932 1,503 EBITDA margins (%) -14.1 -6.9 -1.5 9.3 13.1 - Interest 8 12 113 105 46 - Depreciation 190 208 241 254 369 + Other income 232 262 209 119 89 - Tax 17 -91 28 104 236 Effective tax rate (%) -2.1 18.1 -13.2 16.7 20.1 + Associates / (minorities) 12 12 66 -67 -3 Adjusted PAT -829 -411 -243 521 938 + Extraordinary items - - - - - Reported PAT -829 -411 -243 521 938 Adj. FDEPS (` / sh) -8.3 -3.9 -2.3 4.0 7.3 Adj. FDEPS growth (%) -53.1 -40.8 NM 80.0 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (` m) Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e Adjusted PAT -829 -411 -243 521 938 + Non-cash items 200 208 241 254 369 Cash profit -629 -203 -2 775 1,307 - Incr. / (decr.) in WC -710 1,021 417 -188 -293 Operating cash-flow 71 -1,224 -419 963 1,600 - Capex 250 921 1,020 1,538 1,384 Free cash-flow -179 -2,145 -1,439 -575 216 - Dividend -34 - - - - + Equity raised -6 409 36 1,987 - + Debt raised -721 36 2,159 -1,987 500 - Investments - -1,190 147 -374 -4 - Misc. items - - - - - Net cash-flow 502 -510 609 -201 720 + Op. cash & bank bal. 560 1,062 552 1,161 960 Cl. Cash & bank bal. 1,062 552 1,161 960 1,680 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 5 – Price movement Source: Bloomberg Fig 2 – Balance sheet (` m) Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e Share capital 501 504 509 624 624 Reserves & surplus 5,691 5,687 5,475 7,867 8,805 Net worth 6,192 6,190 5,983 8,491 9,429 Total debt 77 229 2,324 337 837 Minority interest 0 - - - - Def. tax liab. (net) 51 -65 -1 -1 -1 Capital employed 6,321 6,355 8,306 8,828 10,265 Net fixed assets 1,794 2,578 2,002 2,266 2,261 Intangible assets 874 804 2,158 3,178 4,198 Investments 1,794 604 751 377 373 - of which, Liquid 1,514 294 371 1 1 Working capital 796 1,817 2,234 2,045 1,752 Cash 1,062 552 1,161 960 1,680 Capital deployed 6,321 6,355 8,306 8,828 10,265 Working capital (days) 48 82 90 74 56 Book value (` / sh) 62 59 57 66 73 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 4 – Ratio analysis @ `99 Year-end: Mar FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18e FY19e P/E (x) NM NM NM 24.5 13.6 Cash P/E (x) NM NM NM 16.5 9.8 EV / EBITDA (x) -8.8 -16.9 -79.6 10.1 6.1 EV / sales (x) 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 P/B (x) 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 RoE (%) -12.5 -6.6 -3.3 7.2 10.5 RoCE (%) -15.6 -9.8 -5.7 6.7 9.5 Dividend yield (%) - - - - - Dividend payout (%) - - - - - Net debt / equity (x) -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Debtor (days) 166.0 167.6 161.8 154.8 149.8 Inventory (days) - - - - - Payables (days) 81.8 82.4 57.7 50.7 47.7 CFO:PAT % 20.9 262.3 243.0 180.1 167.3 CFO: sales % -2.9 -13.7 -7.1 10.6 13.7 Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Fig 6 – Regional break-up of revenue Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 (`) North America 13% Continental Europe 40% India 11% ROW 36%
  • 3. 14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy Anand Rathi Research 3 Result Highlights Q1 FY18 Results at a Glance Fig 8 – Quarterly result (` m) Year-end: Mar Q1 FY18 % q/q % y/y FY17 FY16 % y/y Sales ($ m) 37 0.1 21.7 137 124 10.6 Sales 2,412 (3.7) 17.8 9,110 8,065 12.9 EBITDA 135 (13.4) NM (136) (555) NM EBITDA margin (%) 5.6 -63 bps 1211 bps (1.5) (6.9) 540 bps EBIT 77 (20.5) NM (377) (763) NM EBIT margin (%) 3.2 -67 bps 1256 bps (4.1) (9.5) 532 bps PBT 91 22.6 NM (239) (513) NM Tax (36) NM 3.8 (28) 91 NM Tax rate (%) (40.1) NM NM 11.9 (17.7) NM Net Income 7 (95.0) NM (202) (411) NM Source: Company Fig 7 – Segment-wise results Q1 FY17 Q2 FY17 Q3 FY17 Q4 FY17 Q1 FY18 Q/q % Y/y % Revenues ($ m) 31 35 34 37 37 0.1 21.7 Growth Y/y % 1 10 14 16 22 524bps 2055bps Revenues (` m) 2,048 2,294 2,265 2,504 2,412 -3.7 17.8 Eff. exchange rate 66.6 65.2 67.5 67.0 64.5 -3.8 -3.2 Employees (EoP) -est 4,220 4,240 4,200 4,180 4,280 2.4 1.4 Revenue Productivity ($ ‘000/employee) 7.3 8.3 8.0 8.9 8.7 -2.2 20.0 CoR (excluding D&A) (1,648) (1,793) (1,857) (1,794) (1,774) -1.1 7.7 As % of revenue -80 -78 -82 -72 -74 -190bps 692bps SG&A (533) (516) (552) (553) (502) -9.2 -5.7 As % of revenue -26 -22 -24 -22 -21 127bps 519bps EBITDA (133) (14) (145) 156 135 -13.4 NM EBITDA margin % -6 -1 -6 6 6 -63bps 1211bps EBIT -192 -75 -206 96 77 -20.5 NM EBIT margin % -9 -3 -9 4 3 -67bps 1256bps Other Income 175 (48) 106 18 56 213.9 -68.2 Forex gain / loss 142 15 50 (70) 10 PBT -33 -147 -133 74 91 22.6 NM PBT margin % -2 -6 -6 3 4 81bps 536bps Taxes (35) (27) (37) 71 (36) NM 3.8 ETR % 107 18 28 95 -40 NM NM PAT (68) (174) (170) 145 54 -62.4 NM PAT margin % -3 -8 -8 6 2 -352bps 556bps Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Note: Analyst judgement used for R&D costs. May not match with the reported numbers. This is to normalize reported numbers for management discretion on capitalization and expensing out.
  • 4. 14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy Anand Rathi Research 4 Conference call takeaways/other details There was no conference call in Q1 FY18 as the company was in a rights issue process. Here are the other details from results:  The business environment overall continues to be strong for BFSI products as judged by the deal pipeline. Therefore, Intellect’s revenue continues to scale up. We expect it to end the year with a comfortable 14% revenue growth in dollar terms.  The rights issue closed on 9th Aug’17.  R&D expenditure continues at ~`1bn a year. In Q1 FY18, there seems to be additional capitalisation of `26m compared to Q4 FY17. This benefitted the reported EBITDA by the same amount.  Intellect has a workforce of ~4,300, of which 1,500-1,600 are deployed in R&D (new product developments).  The tax rate is a function of which subsidiaries and regions are turning profitable. Therefore, “percent” may be misleading regarding an effective tax rate. In absolute terms, the tax rate may hold at similar levels as in Q1 FY18.  The Bangladesh subsidiary had a large proportion of revenues this quarter and that led to the dramatic increase in minority interest for the quarter. This will be normalized from next quarter.  Capex would be low as infrastructure needs are complete and the business model is non-linear. R&D will be the major recurring capex.  Amortisation of new software will start in Q2 FY18 and increase overall depreciation in FY19. We expect `130m amortization vs. `1,000m R&D capitalisation in FY19. Fig 9 – Intellect Design – License Revenues (US$m) Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 3QFY16 4QFY16 1QFY17 2QFY17 3QFY17 4QFY17 1QFY18 License + AMC Implementation and Support US$m
  • 5. 14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy Anand Rathi Research 5 Valuations We have valued the stock on EV/sales, of 1.6x FY19e and an implied PE of 20x. We retain our Buy recommendation with a new target of `150, reflecting our optimism regarding Intellect’s ability to scale up revenues and the efficacy of the cost-management programs in Q4 FY17 and Q1 FY18. The company needs to deliver growth to create value and generate returns for shareholders. Since most of its costs are fixed, it tends to suffer greater losses in periods of slow growth (as in most of FY17). We believe that, at this stage, the single most important variable for it is revenue growth. We, therefore, continue to value it on EV:sales. Capex is almost complete and will continue to trend lower, at ~`300m- 400m, further requirement being restricted to new-product development, estimated at `1bn a year. Revenue growth is coming along well, adjusted for overall weakness in the industry. Margins are also turning out to be better now as the company focuses on cost rationalisation and balances out disproportionate spending on SG&A. The positive thing about Intellect is that it can, at its discretion, decide to cut costs as and when needed; it exercised this option in Q4 FY17 to demonstrate the profitability of the underlying business model. We saw this continued focus on managing costs in Q1 FY18. Fig 10 – Change in estimates FY18 FY19 (` m) New Old Chg % New Old Chg % Revenues ($ m) 156 155 0.4 178 178 - Revenues 10,030 10,383 (3.4) 11,503 11,957 (3.8) EBITDA 932 980 (4.9) 1,503 1,578 (4.8) EBITDA margin % 9.3 9.4 -15 bps 13.1 13.2 -13 bps EBIT 678 734 (7.6) 1,133 1,302 (13.0) EBIT margin % 6.8 7.1 -31 bps 9.9 10.9 -104 bps PBT 693 768 (9.8) 1,177 1,283 (8.3) Net Profit 588 653 (9.9) 940 1,026 (8.4) Source: Anand Rathi Research Fig 11 – 1-year forward EV/Sales Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17
  • 6. 14 August 2017 Intellect Design Arena – Steady Q1 on rev & margins, lower target on rights dilution; Buy Anand Rathi Research 6 Risks  Business: Intellect operates in an industry (BFSI/discretionary spending), currently traversing some turbulence on account of BRexit. Its revenue targets/guidance may be affected by some of these unforeseen circumstances. Of its revenue, 33% arises from Europe.  Sharp rupee appreciation.
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Important Disclosures on subject companies Rating and Target Price History (as of 14 August 2017) Date Rating TP (`) Share Price (`) 1 01-Oct-15 Buy 230 171 2 04-Apr-16 Buy 290 236 3 07-Feb-17 Buy 175 133 Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps (>US$1bn) and Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) as described in the Ratings Table below: Ratings Guide (12 months) Buy Hold Sell Large Caps (>US$1bn) >15% 5-15% <5% Mid/Small Caps (<US$1bn) >25% 5-25% <5% Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014 Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. (hereinafter refer as ARSSBL) (Research Entity) is a subsidiary of Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd. ARSSBL is a corporate trading and clearing member of Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd, National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. 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