KTH - The Royal Institute of Technology   Grand challenges in Energy




                                                 Prof. Ronald Wennersten
                                                 Department of Industrial Ecology
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Perspectives




Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
What is your perspective of yourself?
What is your perspective of the world?
What is the worlds perspective of you?
           Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Arvid Nilsson   1961
                Ronald Wennersten/Industrial
                       Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial
       Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial
       Ecology/KTH
“If we don’t change direction
     soon, we’ll end up where
     we’re heading”

        There are few signs that the
        urgently needed change in
        direction in global energy trends is
        underway. Although the recovery
        in the world economy since 2009
        has been uneven, and future
        economic prospects remain
        uncertain, global primary energy
        demand rebounded by
        a remarkable 5% in 2010, pushing
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH to a new high.
        CO2 emissions
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
We need engineers to
                                           solve problems that
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH   engineers have created
Change to what?




                  Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
2. Waste water - heat
                                                                         pumps – heat to district
               3. Sorted waste – biofuel                                 heating system – cooling
               for district heating and                                  to district cooling of
               electricity production                                    offices




                                                                      1. Sludge – biogas –
                                                                           cooking/cars




The Hammarby Model – system approach on
                          Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
City level
How can we go from one state to another?




              Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
?



    Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
?



    Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
How can we go from one state to another




   We have to know
   what we are heading for and….
           Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
How can we go from one state to another




                                                  Technology
which are the barriers                            Economy
                                                  Management
                                                  Peoples mindsets
                  Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Backcasting scenario

                                            Future




                                            Future
Now



                                             Future




               Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Central sources
                                                                 Hydropower
                                                                 Wind power
                                                                 CHP plants
         District heating

                District cooling                                 Local sources
                                                                 Local CHP
                                                                 PV cells
                                                                 Wind
Electric grid                                                    Solar heater
                                                                 Heatpumps

  Gas
                                                             New business models


                  Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Short circuit economies?


                                                                                      Hydro Power plant



                             solar

                                  PV cells              wind
                                                                                        District area

                                                                                       City
      Cogeneration plant
                                                                                       District Heating
                                                Bio-transport                          Power Grid

   Micro Bio-
   Fuelled CHP

                                              Waste water
                                                                    Waste Water
                                                                    treatment plant
                     Wood chips


                              ”Bio forest”                           soil
                                    Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Can we predict technology development?
          Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
First flight of the Wright Flyer I, 17 December
1903, Orville piloting, Wilbur running at
wingtip.


                                                                   The distance over
                                                                   the ground was
                                                                   measured to be
                                                                   852 feet (260 m);
                                                                   the time of the
                                                                   flight was 59
                                                                   seconds.




                        Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
What on earth can
                                           this be used for?




Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Who would have imagined this?


                                 Airbus A380




Provides seating for 525 people in standard three-class configuration
or up to 853 people in all economy class configuration
                       Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Solar Impulse




 Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
                                     www.solarimpulse.com
Solar Impulse




Aerodynamics
The wingspan of Solar Impulse is 80 metres, slightly wider than the
wingspan of an Airbus A380. The ultra-light structure must use
customised carbon fibres.

Energy
Photovoltaic cells will generate electricity during the day, which will
serve both to propel the plane and to recharge the batteries to allow
flight at night.

Propulsion
The average power provided to the engines will be on the order of 12
hp, comparable to that of the Wright Flyer
                         Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
What will happen in the next 100 years?
        Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
 Long and short term scenarios
 Systems thinking and wider perspective
 And..
     Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
New ways to teach and learn




       Ronald Wennersten/Industrial
              Ecology/KTH
A successful organisation is like a child

Determined      Trying                   Adaptive
Curious         Brave
Searching       Challenging




                  Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Beware of modern colonialists
           colonizing the future




Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
To solve the small challanges
you need to face the great challanges




              Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
And to think out of the box




      Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH
Thanks!

 Ronald Wennersten/Industrial Ecology/KTH

Grand challenges in energy