Energy Revolution
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This presentation gives an overview on how our current unsustainable energy supply systems can be transformed to sustainable energy systems? There is a special focus on the challenges for developing countries. The findings are based on the book from Peter Hennicke & Susanne Bodach "Energierevolution - Effizienzsteigerung und erneuerbare Energien als neue globale Herausforderungen" (Oekon Verlag 2010). Presentation held on World Environment Day 2010 (2010-06-06) in Kathmandu, Nepal.
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Energy Revolution
- 1. World Environmental Day 2010 EnergyREVOLUTION Susanne Bodach . Energy & Environmental Expert FNCCI / Energy Efficiency & Environmental Forum Kathmandu, 6 June 2010
- 2. Unsustainable Trends: The Daily Toll
- 3. Today’s Energy supply system • Based mainly on fossil energy resources • Centralized large supply structures • Steadily increasing energy demand
- 4. Today’s Energy supply systems • Unsustainable consumption pattern • Energy poverty & energy equity
- 5. Today’s Energy supply systems • Direct coupling between economic growth and energy demand growth Energy intensity in kWh / capita & year Income or GDP in US$ / capita & year
- 6. What are the risks of our current energy supply systems? Climate change Eco-degradation Limited resources Energy poverty Supply insecurity Increasing prices Resource conflicts Nuclearisation Supply shortage
- 7. Climate change Common but differentiated responsibility
- 8. Climate change Stern Report 2006: •Economic cost of climate change: 5% of global GDP •Cost for avoiding temperature rise of more than 2-3 Degree Celsius: only 1% of GDP
- 9. Resources are limited • Oil and gas peak already reached
- 10. Nuclearisation • Risk of Supergau, Tschernobyl 1986 • Nuclear power technology can be abused – Countries with nuclear weapons 1970: 5 vs. Today: 25 – Nuclear terror • Until today no viable solution for nuclear waste
- 11. What we need? New Life style & Quality of life consumption Innovative pattern Policies for Sustainable Production and Economic Eco-efficient consumption Products growth And production Use of nature Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity
- 12. „Humanity can solve the carbon and climate problem in the first half of this century simply by SCALING UP what we already know to do“. (Pacala/ Socolow2004 Princeton University, USA)
- 13. How to do? Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity In the North - Absolute decoupling 1. Ecological Industrial Policy 2. Sustainable Lifestyles 3. Lead markets for “GreenTech“ In the South - Relative decoupling 1. Avoid lock-in into outdated technologies and unsustainable consumption patterns of the North; 2. Reduce energy growth by fostering „leapfrogging“ technologies (e.g. energy efficiency)
- 14. Leapfrogging Barefoot Solar Engineers Micro Hydro Power in Nepal Solar driven LED lamps
- 15. How to do? Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity Common Challenges: 1. Sustainable energy systems based on „three green pillars“: I. Energy Efficiency (EE) II. Renewable Energy (RE) EE RE CHP III. Combined Heat & Power (CHP) 2. „Greening“ energy supply, decentralisation, liberalisation, democratisation! 3. Dematerialisation, ecoefficiency (“reduce, recycle, reuse”)
- 16. How to do? Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Global potential for Renewable Energies: • 1 EJ = 1018 Joule • Primary energy consumption of Germany : 100 EJ in 2008 = 14 EJ • Nepal’s Hydro Power Potential = 83 GW, : 140 EJ 43 GM economically viable, only 1% used : 30 EJ : 50 EJ : Infinite Source: WBGU (2003)
- 17. How to do? Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Source: Greenpeace (2009)
- 18. How to do? Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Energy intensity & development Energy efficiency potential in DC Sector Area Saving Potentials Agriculture Vehicles bis zu 35 % Irrigation bis zu 85 % Soil management bis zu 70 % Traffic Passenger & goods 10 – 35 % Industry Steel, cement,. 25 – 50 % Chemicals Pulp, paper, oil 30 – 40 % Steam, boilers 20 – 50 % electrical drives Buildings Manufacturing & 50 – 60 % production Private households 50 – 70 % Source: UNDP (2000) Source: WEA (2004)
- 19. How to do? Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity The future will be “decentralized“ Centralized decentralized Decentralized energy supply based on Renewables
- 20. Challenges for developing countries Barriers: • Technical: lack of know-how, adapted technologies, no quality standards, maintenance infrastructure • Lack of awareness & capacity: insufficient data, almost no information, lack of qualified personal, • Institutional: unclear political framework, monopolistic energy market, grid access not ensured • Financial: high initial investment, lack of capital, import customs duties
- 21. Challenges for developing countries Instruments: • No general subsidies for fossil fuels • Private investment necessary • Create “good” political framework → Functioning energy markets • Technology & know-how transfer → Local capacity building • Financial support from IC • “true” energy prices • Regulatory bodies • Fighting corruption
- 22. Chances for developing countries • Independency from energy imports • “clean” energy exporters →NEPAL with Hydropower • Less cost intensive supply infrastructure • Supply also for rural population • Create new markets & new jobs in Renewables/Energy Efficiency sector →foster sustainable economic growth
- 23. „It may not be cost-effective to save the world, but it will be worthwhile anyhow“ (Prof. Joergen Noergard)
- 24. Thank you!!! Peter, Hennicke: Susanne Bodach: Energierevolution - Effizienzsteigerung und erneuerbare Energien als neue globale Herausforderungen. Oekon Verlag 2010.
Editor's Notes
- The daily toll of our life style……describe figureRegarding energy:Energy is necessary for developmentThe century of cheap energy is overIf these trends continue during the following decade (business as usual), we will experience a catastrophic change of our world.However, there is hope: There is still enough time to change our unsustainable life style!
- Based mainly on fossil energy resources like coal, mineral oil and natural gas80% of the global energy demand is supplied by thesefuelsOnly 6% by nuclear energy uranium resources are also a limitedno technical solution for nuclear waste disposal until TODAYRenewable energy resources and nuclear power plays a minor role in our current energy systemCentralized large supply structuresInertial & inflexible systemsconstruction of thermal power plant need up to 10 years from the planning to completion and have a minimum life time of several decadesSteadily increasing energy demand, especially in DC due to population growth and economic development, NEA forecast for electricity demand growth in Nepal: average 9% yearly until 2027/28
- Unsustainable consumption pattern of the industrialized countries are copied by developing countriesIf China’s people would drive as much by car as people in the US, they would need all the whole mineral oil currently available on the world marketEnergy poverty:Some 1.6 billion people –one-quarter of the world population–have no access to electricity. In the absence of vigorous nopolicies, 1.4 billion people will still lack electricity in 2030.Some 2.4 billion people rely on traditional biomass – wood, agriculturalresidues and dung–for cooking and heating. That number will increase to 2.6 billion by 2030.
- Last decades of the 20th century the economy in IC is slowly growing by less than 3% per year.In contrast economic growth in DC is sharply increasing with two digits rates. What is happening there mainly is a so-called “catch-up development”, i.e. they are going the same structural path of economic growth that IC went after World War II.There development is also mainly based on a fossil fuels energy supply system which has as a consequence not only global risk but also risk for the environment in these countries as wealth as health risk.Economic development is traditionally measured by the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) = Income Conventional development patterns: economic growth implicates increase of energy demand, both are coupled directly, you can observe that in most IC but also in DCConsequence: two digit economic growth follows two digit energy demand growthExplain figureFigure shows: you can reach different welfare with same input of energy!!!Only if energy efficiency is improving faster than economic growth a decoupling is possible, i.e. energy intensity
- Figure: Temperature projection in different scenarios until 2100Consequence of climate changeMore extreme meteorological events like heavy rains, floods, storms, hurricanes, droughts, etc. Glacial meltLoss of biodiversity, ecosystems cannot adapt so fast on climate change, e.g. CoralsDeclining crops yields@Climate change discussionIndustrial countries (IC) are the cause of climate changeFrom historical point of view IC with 20% of the world’s population are responsible for 80% of the cumulative Carbon Emissions since industrial revolutionHowever, due to population growth developing countries are the carbon emitters of the futureIn 2006 China became the major emitter of carbon emissions. @Climate change discussion need for Common but differentiated responsibilityClimate equity, i.e. per capita emission
- The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change is a 700-page report released for the British government in 2006 by economist Nicholas SternNicolas Stern, former economist of the World Bankdiscusses the effect of global warming on the world economyfirst report on this issues, results were broadly discussedmain conclusion is the benefit of strong early action on climate change to reduce costs in the futureThe Review states that climate change is the greatest and widest-ranging market failure ever seen, presenting a unique challenge for economics.
- These are limited resourcesFrom 1950 to 2007 yearly global oil consumption increased from 470 to almost 4,000 Millions of oil equivalentOur current supply systems are highly inertial, i.e. they cannot adapt fast to changing situationOil and gas peakexpected between 2010 and 2025, i.e. after reaching the so called depletion point oil production will decreased considerablyWhat will happen after that???Steadily increasing demand and decreasing supplyConsequence: oil price goes up remarkably (especially developing countries will suffer)conflicts for fossil resources has already started
- Security risk: Risk of Supergau, Tschernobyl 1986Who can control the trade with nuclear material?Nuclear power technology can be abused Since 1970, the year of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the number of countries with nuclear weapon has increased from 5 up to 25 countriesNuclear terrorUntil today no viable solution for nuclear wasteNuclear waste is still radioactive after thousands of yearshealth risk through toxic radiation
- @New understanding of interaction between human being and the environmentReduce the uses of nature by ensuring quality of lifeNEED: new life style and consumption pattern eco-efficient production innovative policies to faster sustainable production & consumption@Decoupling economic growth from the use of nature by fostering resource productivity: An ecological necessity and a benefit for sustainable development, security of supply and climate mitigation!
- The 2000-watt society (2,000-Watt Society) is a vision, developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Züricheach person in IC would cut their overall rate of energy use to an average of no more than 2,000 watts per year (i.e. 17,520 kilowatt-hours per year of all energy use, not only electrical) by the year 2050, without lowering their standard of living.The concept addresses not only personal or household energy use, but the total for the whole society, divided by the populationCurrent global average per capita consumption: 2000 Watt per year, BUT 6,000 watts in western Europe, 12,000 watts in the United States, 1500 watts in China, 1000 watts in India, and only 300 watts in Bangladesh.That means: in the North energy consumption has to be reduced to one third without loosing welfareso that per capita consumption in the south rises for sustainable developmentThrough innovation, integration of resource & energy efficiency, change of consumption pattern & life styleThrough „leapfrogging“ to modern energy efficient technologies
- The term "leapfrogging" describes the rapid change made by a society or a company to a higher level of development without going through the intermediate stages observed in other cases. This connects with the idea that economic resources for unsustainable fossil technologies can be saved and thus the country can invest these resources directly in a sustainable future, instead of in infrastructure that will soon become obsolete. Ecological leapfrogging can be an alternative to development-as-catching up.Example of leapfrogging@
- "Barefoot Solar Engineers" -- rural women trained to install and repair solar power systems in IndiaSolar-powered or biodiesel-powered LED Lamps to Bring Green Energy to rural areas in developing countriesMicro & Mini Hydro power for access to electricity in remote areas in nepal
- The future is in RENEWABLE ENERGY & ENERGY EFFICIENCY!!!Both have to go together. It’s a race against time!We have still time to prevent the risk and guide our energy systems in a sustainable futureA globally coordinated „energy efficiency + renewables initiative“ is needed, it includes:A vision, new consumption pattern, new lifestyle for the post-carbon society (Convergence and reduction to „2000 Watt per capita societies“; at least 60% C02-reduction up to 2050) Binding targets for IC; know-how transfer and financial support for DC A supporting framework to create world wide markets for energy services
- Figure:global: development of primary energy consumption under the two scenarios:REF = Reference scenario, business as usual, just following the unsustainable path E(R) = Energy Revolution scenario: fostering renewable & energy efficiency
- 1st figure describes the development path of IC since industrialisation regarding its energy intensityEnergy intensity: is a measure of the energy efficiency of a nation's economy. It is calculated as units of energy per unit of GDP.The energy intensity of IC is desceasing steadily after reaching its maximumThose countries where industrialization started later, their maximum is lowerHowever: need for faster reduction of energy intensity to ensure sustainable development@Where are the potential savings in DC???
- Why decentralized?Current centralized energy supply systems were developed in IC in order to supply a large number of consumers which are more or less equally distributedRisk of centralizations: supply security, economic power in the hands of few supplier, conflict of limited resourcesSituation in DC is different: less dense populated area, less capital available, etc.however, centralized system were mostly copied, cost intensive infrastructure is not affordableonly urban areas can be suppliedEnergy poverty in rural areasIsland systems based on Renewables for grid-isolated area, especially in developing countriesEmpowerment trough decentralization: energy consumer became energy producer, know-how is build upSocial aspect of RE based decentralized SS: Labour intensive technology, e.g. in Germany RE have created hundred thousands of new jobsLeapfrogging has already started
- 8x@
- Prof. JoergenNoergard: Associate Professor at Technical University of Denmark, Researcher and teacher for 35 years on energy conservation and other solutions to environmental problems, Member of the Balaton Group, an international environmental organization of ca. 200 scientists and manager