The document discusses sustainable development goals for energy access, efficiency, and low carbon energy supply for a post-2015 agenda. It proposes goals for increasing renewable energy shares, reducing costs of low carbon technologies, boosting annual investments in energy access, and improving efficiency in buildings and economic sectors. The goals would contribute to outcomes like behavioral changes and investments, and ultimately impact sustainable development through economic, environmental and social changes.

1. Måns Nilsson
Stockholm Environment Institute
and Royal Institute of Technology
IRF
Independent Research Forum
For a Post 2015 Sustainable
Development Agenda
12-09-03

2. IRF research agenda
• Post 2015 universal development vision and
narrative
• SDG objectives structure and hierarchy
• Indepth analysis of multilevel implementation
of specific goal areas such as water, energy
and food
• Indicators, monitoring and learning systems
12-09-03

3. Prof. Måns Nilsson
Stockholm Environment Institute
and Royal Institute of Technology
Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL)
The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)
African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC)
World Resources Institute (WRI)
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE)
Brazilian Foundation for Sustainable Development (FBDS)
Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 3

4. Energy as a basis for development

5. Exponential
growth in energy
use
Source: IIASA
5

6. 6

7. 7

8. Women disproportionally affected
by lack of modern energy
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9. Energy and development

10. Energy for shared development globally
faster development in the world’s poor regions, requiring energy for
productive/ industrial economic activities world wide.
Energy for ”modern society”
Energy for productive and industrial
purposes
Access to basic energy services for the poor
Energy for basic needs and MDGs
providing lighting, cooking and other basic energy services to all based
on an extension of the MDG goals
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11. Key question
• What are the energy systems implications of a
development pathway with converging per capita
incomes over the long term?
– A detailed sector-by-sector energy scenario for 22 world regions
-a good chance to achieve 2 degrees climate change
-meeting global needs for energy for development
- observing land and water constraints
– 1st roll out of basic energy services to the poor
– 2nd energy demand on par with middle income
• radical improvements in energy efficiency
• accelerated retirement of fossil fuels
• shift toward renewable energy sources

13. GDP:
Shared Development

14. Cumulative Emissions:
Scenarios Compared to Requirements
for Climate Protection
Cumulative CO2 Emissions: 2000-2050 Gt CO2
Baseline 2,516
Shared Development Agenda 1,165
Required to Give 50% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,440
Required to Give 67% Chance of Keeping within 2C 1,169

15. ”Nexus” interaction: Where and when does
bioenergy hit constraints?
400
350
300
250
Low
200 M edium
Strict
150
100
50
0
default no grass no nature 10% TEEB-BL
forests

16. Energy implications

17. Energy demand trajectories in different regions
E
J

18. Making sustainable energy for all real
• Access
• 2030 Ensuring universal access to modern energy services
• 2050 +Ensuring enough supply for productive economic
activities world wide
• Efficiency
• 2030 Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency
• 2050 +Electrification of processes and transport
• Low carbon energy
• 2030 Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global
energy mix
• 2050 +Ensuring land and water requirements are balanced

19. Municipal
Transition efficiency
Enhancing efficiency towns UK Sweden
Zero- and lifestyles Efficient
Carbon
buildings
Seattle
Netherlands EU Wind in Solar
Solar EU
Covenant China PV in
and US
of Mayors China
Integrated
Expanding Cook
power
planning
stoves
renewable Bio-
Local India
Thailand
energy
energy Mali
ethanol
Ethiopia
Lighting
rural Energy
India for all in
Hydro Asia prog
power Microhydro
Biofuels Indonesia
and grids
Brazil
in SSA
Expanding basic
energy access
Integrated
power
planning
SA

20. Contributing policies: transition pathways
Stable market signals
Facilitate entry of
new actors
Long term and Support
industry-close experiments /demos
R&D and niche markets
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21. Selected policy implications
International
1. Establish energy access, low carbon supply and efficiency as SDGs
2. Establish global mechanism for energy for development – with
goals, financing and technology sharing
National
1. Investment and RD&D needs not met - put the state back in the
game, reinvent industrial policy
2. Put predictable but dynamic hard regulations in place to direct
and drive innovation efforts
Subnational
1. Nurture private-public partnerships to enable infrastructure
investments and innovation platforms
2. Foster new business models and entrepreneurship for access and
for efficient practices

22. Sustainable Development Goals
can be formulated as:
• Contributing goals
– Processes and decisions towards the goals
• Ultimate goals
– Outcomes - changes in behaviours / investments etc
– Impacts – changes in society or the environment
Policy and Policy outputs Outcomes Impacts on SD
institutional and (economic,
frameworks implementation environmental,
decisions social)

23. Low carbon supply goals / contributing
R&D expenditure
Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 23

24. Low carbon supply goals / contributing
Public subsidies
Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 24

25. Low carbon supply goals / ultimate
Renewable energy shares
Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 25

26. Low carbon supply goals / ultimate
Cost reductions
Source; Junginger et al 2008
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27. Access goals: contributing
Annual investments required
Total Investment needs: ca 48 billion
USD per year
(1/3 donors / home governments /
private sector)
Stockholm, Sweden - 3 May 2011 27

28. Efficiency goals
– Activity levels of energy services in households
• Electrification and electricity use per capita
• Modern cooking stoves in use
– Activity levels of energy services in economic sectors
– Intensity in economy wide and in sectors
– Intensities / efficiency measurements in buildings
• Conversion rates of existing stock
• Performance of new buildings
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