This document outlines a roadmap for research in electronic governance over the next decade. It identifies four grand challenges: 1) Model-based collaborative governance to improve policy modeling and simulation; 2) Data-powered collective intelligence and action to leverage real-time open data; 3) Establishing a government service utility to provide ubiquitous, standardized public services; and 4) Developing a science base for ICT-enabled governance to systematize the field. For each challenge, it discusses short and long-term research directions to address gaps between current governance and a rapidly changing digital society. The overall goal is to transform policy-making using collaborative models, robust data analysis, and innovative digital service delivery.

1. A Roadmap for Research in Electronic Governance: The Grand Challenges aheadYannisCharalabidisAssistant Professor, University of the AegeanManager, Greek Interoperability Centre

2. Your keynote speakerSoftware engineer, National Technical University of AthensPhD in complex information systems, NTUA7 years a researcher in RTD projects for businesses and governments7 years in the software industry (Greece, Netherlands, Germany Poland). Managing director of Baan-Singular ERP company Already 4 years in Uni Aegean, teaching and researching on eGovernance (another 3 “remaining”)The next 7 years ?My aim for the day: to give you food for thought. Hold on …

3. The problem: policy-making and governance in a complex worldRising number of tipping points, unpredictable “black swan” events: (financial and economic crisis; terrorist attacks, climate change)Can’t be adequately addressed by traditional econometric modelsPoliticians are not used to evidence-based decisionsExplosion in authorship, co-creation and collaborationMass collaboration and participationOpen data, open innovation modelsGovernment 2.0More intelligence and more stupidity, more signal and more noise

4. Governance: often silos-based, linear, obscure, hierarchical, over-simplifiedPolicies, Disciplines and Actors are isolatedSociety: increasingly interconnected, flexible, fast-evolving, unpredictableThe Problem: Gap between Society and Governance

5. The problem: We need a mix of ICT with Social SciencesWeb TechnologiesSystems & Services Technologies“Hard”Public Sector Service Systems Workflow SystemsEnterprise Resource ManagementCloud computingWeb 2.0Argument VisualizationMixed Reality Pattern RecognitionSerious GamesElectronic ParticipationTranslation SystemsSocial NetworksPS Knowledge ManagementLegal Structures ManagementBusiness IntelligenceData & Opinion MiningSimulationForecasting - BackcastingOptimizationSystems DynamicsAdaptive ModelsBehavioral ModellingSocietal ModellingSocial SimulationSocial InformaticsManagement Tools“Soft”SocietyAdministration

6. "The problems that we have created cannot be solved at the level of thinking that created them" Albert EinsteinSo ?

7. A roadmap for ICT-enabled governance research, beyond 2010, to address global challenges: What are the new needed research directions ?

8. How should we team-up among governments, industry and citizens ?

9. When should we expect results ?www.crossroad-eu.net

10. 2020: A Paradigm Shift in Policy-making, using three "powers"More people involved (collaborative governance)20202010More accurate and analytical, modeling and simulation tools More data available (the data deluge)

11. The MethodFuture scenarios: demand pullState of the art: research pushGapsResearch roadmap (final)Grandchallenges (draft)Research challengesResearch challenges

12. The eGovernance State of the Art in 2010

13. High Openness & Transparency: extreme 1 Self-Service GovernanceOpen GovernanceLow Integration of Policy IntelligenceHigh Integration of Policy Intelligenceextreme 1extreme 0Leviathan GovernancePrivatised GovernanceLow Openness & Transparency: extreme 0Four Scenarios for our Society

14. WHAT – the Grand Challenges

15. GC1: Model-based collaborative governanceToday’s policy modeling:Human effort basedUsing mainly econometric models and overlooking human behaviourSocial simulation and agent-based models are marginal, black-box, fragmented and single-purposeProgress in modeling software has not matched advances in computing power.Designing, reviewing and updating formal models from qualitative and quantitative data is costly.

16. Research challengesIntegrated, composable and reusable modelsmodels composability and interoperability (between software and modelling methods) to build on existing modelsShort term research: definition of procedures for model composition and repositories Long term research: model interoperability and SOA / GRIDCollaborative modellingIntuitive model building and simulation tools to allow all stakeholders to take part in transparent formal modelling at large scaleShort term: transparent and intuitive modelling interfacesLong-term: mass-collaboration modelling frameworkEasy access to information and knowledge creation methods of information elicitation that, during the overall model building and use processes, will help decision makers to learn how a certain system works and ultimately gain insights (knowledge) and understanding (apply the extracted knowledge from those processes) in order to successfully implement a desired policy.Short-term: interoperability of data sources, information elicitationLong-term: user-behavior information generation; mass-interactive learning environments

17. Research challenges/2Model validationReliability of models plays a crucial role in policy modeling and simulation. A policy model should be developed for a specific purpose (or context) and its validity is to be determined with respect to that purpose (or context). Therefore, specific and integrated techniques and ICT tools are required to be developed for policy modeling, (conceptual and software validation )Short-term: Consolidation of validation techniquesLong-term: complex and large scale model validation; artificial intelligence incorporated in validation systemsInteractive simulation It allows a researcher to interactively control simulations and perform data analysis while avoiding many of the pitfalls associated with the traditional batch/post processing cycle. Short-term: UsabilityLong-term: Input/output system integration, Computational steeringOutput analysis and knowledge synthesisthe analysis and integration of feedbacks in modelling and simulation processShort-term: Policy model simulation, ranking techniquesLong-term: sophisticated variance estimators, automated output analysis

18. GC2: Data-powered collective intelligence and action

19. Research challengesPrivacy-compliant participatory sensing for real-time policy-makingDramatically increasing the data availability for policy evaluation while maintaining privacy and ensuring policy inferenceShort term: combination of sensing with social network analysis, data quality verification, context verification; Long term: privacy by design; enhanced analytical techniques to respond to subtle events; data collaboration protocolsReal-time, high-quality, reusable open government data Simplifying and lowering costs of real-time open data publication, ensuring data quality and advanced privacy monitoringShort-term: data vocabularies; data curating tools; easy linked data publicationLong-term: on the fly data quality agreements, web of data, real-time validation and publication

20. Research challenges/2Federated dynamic identity management and privacy controlNecessary to ensure trustful collaboration, federated across country, with multiple levels of security for different services, relying on authentic sources, usable in private sector context. Short-term: Dynamic user-controlled data disclosure; culturally-dependent identity systems; trust negotiationLong-term: context dependent identity managementPeer-to-peer public opinion miningThe limits of human attention, combined to the existing simple interfaces available for browsing discussion and comments, often leads to low levels of engagement and flaming wars, driving to polarisation of arguments and enhanced risks of conflicts.Short-term research: computer-generated cross-language policy corpora; algorithms for policy statistical analysis; comment recommendation algorithmsLong-term research: integration with social network analysis; audiovisual mining; peer-to-peer usable opinion mining tools;

21. Research challenges/3 Intuitive, collaborative visual analytics of data for policy-makingVisual analytics is particularly effective when dealing with complex and non-predictable patterns, such as those related to assessing and anticipating public policy impact, but is not formalised in the policy contextShort-term research: Collaborative platform display; Interaction between visualization and models; Visualization infrastructures for policy modelling issuesLong-term research: Bias identification; learning adaptive algorithm for users’ intent; intuitive affordable interfaces for citizensUser-generated simulation and gaming tools for public actionSimulation and serious gaming impact on personal incentives to action and showing long-term and systemic effects of individual choices, but lack open scenarios based on personal and policy decision as well as usabilityShort-term: kit-based citizens-controlled simulation and gaming; integration with policy modelsLong-term: augmented reality in policy gaming and simulationNew institutional design of collaborative governance

22. GC3 – Government Service UtilityRationalePresent:Traditional public services have not delivered on their promise for time, quality, cost, or overall return on investmentCitizens rarely have access to personalised services in the way they want Service design cannot tap into citizen or SME’s productivity. Services practically remain the same as new service creation is hindered Future:Services are converging and moving from thephysical into the digital world, universally accessible on any device from all social groupsGovernment clouds are overcoming interoperability, privacy and security challenges and provide the base for high automation in public sectorsFuture Internet appears as a key enabler for new public service systems, drastically altering productivity, speed, cost and overall qualityThe 1-1-1 Concept:every service can be provided in one stop, one second, with one euro cost

23. Why a Service Utility ? Electricity Provision Service ProvisionUbiquitous nature: electricity is available everywhere, if you have a proper line and device to connectUsability: it is simple to connect to electricity network, provided you have an electric device with a standard plug (different from country to country, sometimes)Federation: you don’t really know where / how energy is created within a complex network that cross borders, sectorsCo-generation: you can be a customer and a provider, at the same timeDe-regulation: although Governments set the regulations and may own some utilities, the market is competitiveMulti-channel service provisionSimplicity, interoperability, inclusionPublic Clouds Service co-creationService supply deregulation See also “6 common characteristics of service utilities (Rappa, 2004)”: Necessity, Reliability, Usability, Utilisation, Scalability and Exclusivity.

24. The GSU Model Enterprises, SME’s, VSE’s Finance

25. Growth

26. Work and Social Security

27. Representation

28. Information Administrations CoreServices

29. Registry Services

30. Public Sector (web) Services

31. Planning

32. Monitoring

33. Open DataCitizens Citizenship

34. Health

35. Education

36. Work and Social Security

37. Representation / Participation

38. Finance

39. InformationOther / Cross Country GSU’s PanEuropean Core Services

40. PanEuropean Registry Services

41. Cross-country services

42. Highly automated cross-GSU Services Private Service Utilities ServiceProvisionGSUService ConsumptionService CreationServiceAggregationInformation Services Open data

43. Semantic services

44. Knowledge managementCore Services Identification

45. Security

46. Communication

47. Storage

48. Execution

49. Open DataRegistry Services Citizen Registry

50. Health Registry

51. Financial Registry

52. Cadastre

53. Social Security

54. Education

55. Professional ChamberComplex Services Taxation

56. Health

57. Education

58. Social Security

59. Benefits / subsidies

60. Representation / ParticipationGC3 Research challengesUser-driven innovation shaping Public ServicesService co-design, co-generation, mashing and deploymentCitizen generated ideas for new services Change the “DNA” of Public ServicesCloud – based service provision, high automation, interoperability Multichannel provision, internet of thingsServices in one second, one stop, at one euro costDigital public services value proposition for allReshape digital public services objectives, scope and means Create a value proposition model for all stakeholders Massive Public Information as a ServiceUtilisation of public information and knowledge

61. The Governance Cycle and the Management CycleCitizensGC 1GC 2StateGC 3Citizens

62. GC4 – Science Base for ICT-enabled GovernanceRationalePresent: Although a lot of solutions are being developed and applied, there is a lack of systematisation of the domain, hindering re-use of practices, gradual refinement and evolution Relations with neighboring domains are not explored, resulting in unnecessary duplications or lack of cooperationFuture: ICT-enabled governance is maturing into a well-established discipline, integrating social sciences, management, operational research and ICT Classification of research approaches, applications, problems and solution paths supports gradual evolution The research community is constantly updating the objectives and challenges of the domain, utilising new ICT developments for the good of the society

63. Multi-disciplinary issues and relations with neighbouring domainsMetrics and assessment models, Decision Support, Modelling & Simulation Tools (supporting problem-solution relation, utilising BPM/BPR tools, vertical approaches)Formal methods and tools for categorising and analysing the concepts, the problems and solution paths in ICT-enabled governanceGC4: Research Challenges

64. A collaborative journey…3 large experts’ workshops: Samos restricted workshop in July 2010 (over 100 participants)Roadmap Validation workshop in conjunction with the IFIP EGOV Conference 2010, on August 30th, 2010 (over 50 participants) Networking Session (Large Expert Workshop) in conjunction with the ICT 2010 Conference in Brussels on September 27th, 2010 (over 100 participants)Online deliberation at http://crossroad.uservoice.com (over 500 votes)Validation by the Experts Scientific Committee of the full draft of the initial roadmapOngoing discussion on LinkedIn groupAverage distribution: 30% industry, 10% public administration, 60% researchers

66. My eGovernance Research Hype CurveVisibilityService Co-creationVisual AnalyticsGov Cloud (SaaS)Linked DataOpen data Model-Based Decision MakingOpinion MiningSocial Media in Policy MakingService Delivery PlatformsOrganisational InteroperabilityLegal InformaticsGov Cloud (IaaS)eParticipationArgument VisualisationGov Cloud (PaaS)eVotingSocietal SimulationInstant, proactive Service Delivery for allSemantic InteroperabilityMobile GovernmentWeb ServicesScience Basefor ICT-enabled GovernanceFederated eIDTechnical Interoperability ICT-enabled historiographyInflated ExpectationsDisillusionmentProductivityTime

67. Back to reality: Our current projects on ICT-enabled GovernancePADGETS: Policy Making through Social Media Interoperability www.padgets.euENGAGE: Open, Linked Governmental Data for scientists and citizens www.engage-project.euNOMAD: Non-moderated opinion mining (the opinion web) – starting October 2011CROSSOVER: A global think-tank on ICT-enabled Governance– starting October 2011

68. As a conclusionWe need a totally different set of tools for evidence-based decision making by governmentsSocietal Simulation, Data and Opinion Mining, Service Co-creation will be the next “big things” for governments that wish to make a differenceWe need to go beyond pure ICT approaches and embark in a multi-disciplinary journey. That’s why we need a science base for ICT-enabled GovernanceBut most importantly …

69. eGovernance Research is about our children’s future:It is not enough to “do things right” … we should “do the right things”Stay tuned at:yannisx@aegean.gr@yannisct-government.blogspot.com