The document discusses research on using ICT tools to improve governance and policy modeling. It proposes: 1) Developing advanced tools and new governance models to engage citizens and groups in policymaking through mass collaboration platforms. 2) Creating real-time opinion visualization, policy modeling, and next generation public services based on simulating people's behavior and wishes at large scales. 3) Building participative roadmaps on ICT for governance and policy modeling through discussion.

1. David Osimo, Tech4i2 OD2010 Leeds 2 nd July 2010

2. EC FP7 research programme on ICT for governance and policy modelling

3. a) Governance and participation toolbox advanced tools and new governance models to empower and engage individuals, societal groups and communities mass cooperation platforms facilitate transparency and tracking of inputs to the policy and decision making process enable creation, sharing and tracking of group knowledge security, identity and access controls safeguarding against misuse, ensuring privacy & providing feedback Outcome

4. b) Policy modelling, simulation and visualisation Real-time opinion visualisation based on modelling , societal simulation, gaming and mixed reality applications Policy modelling , based on the simulated behaviour and wishes of large numbers of people Next generation of public services as complex service systems in the environment of social networking and collaborative society , including the needs of the younger generation. Large-scale data analysis and cloud computing Outcome And more to come in 2011

5. Building a participative roadmap on ICT for Governance and Policy Modelling

6. Discussion Point 1 Discussion Point 1.1 [Location], [Date]

7. USER: Citizen & Government Users Engagement Collaborative production Social networking Civic hacking Display for behavioural change Data representation Visual analytics Augmented reality Context-aware computing Multi-channel Data analysis Non-linear models Societal simulation Forecasting Models interoperability Opinion mining Data validation Collaborative filtering Reputation management systems Authentication Privacy Social Network Analysis Data collection Sensors / smart cities Open gov / linked data Citizens generated data Serious Games Interoperable Data Exposure PRODUCER: Citizen & Government

8. More people involved (collaborative governance) More accurate and usable models and simulation tools More data available (the data deluge) 2010 2030

9. Open collaborative model-building based on massive quantitative and qualitative data Pervasive and joined-up simulation for policy impact assessment Representative and high quality participation in policy making even with low engagement From conversation to action: simulation-based behavioural change Government Service Utility Towards a science of ICT for governance and policy modelling (policy-making)

10. David Osimo, Tech4i2 [email_address] Join Us! @crossroadeu #xroad groups: Crossroad-eu

11. Currently, collaborative policy making requires in-depth understanding and attention, and involves only a self-selected micro-elites of participants with total separation from non-participants and risks of self-referential thinking. When large-scale participation occurs, input is often of low value and data processing is mostly human, at high cost. Costs of engagement and analysis remain high, and e-discussion too separated from mainstream priorities. 2030 example: budget restrictions are being discussed openly through simulation and visualization techniques that also show long-term impacts. Less engaged people can quickly grasp the key issues by checking the opinion of high-reputation experts trusted by friends and making use of curation and visualization tools easily created by the different stakeholders. Engagement processes are designed to leverage short attnetion and engagement span. Opinion mining and natural language interface. Collaborative filtering tools ensure relevant content but also awareness of divergent opinions to avoid confirmation bias and group thinking. Maximum usage is made of short, limited attention spans and passive behaviours. Collective preferences are captured by formal input and informal behaviour such as satisfaction with specific services, opinion mining, instant and context-aware feedback collection about specific services. Online debate reflects and involves “the belly” of public opinion.

12. Real-time, accurate and affordable opinion-mining and reputation management systems; large scale collaboration through SNA and KDDM; pervasive context-aware feedback; gaming simulation and visualization for inclusion; usable tools for curating content and opinion; filtering to distinguish signal from noise Relevant Gaps: 1.5. Citizen-oriented linked data querying and reasoning 1.7. Large scale public information visualization 2.1. Open and Cross-language Collaborative Filtering 2.2. High-quality expertise identification through reputation management 2.3. Distributed Early Warning Systems for Risk Prevention 2.4. Affordable large scale collaboration 2.5. Leveraging casual participation 2.6. Robust and large-scale argument support systems 3.4. Collaborative Intelligence in Policy Making 3.5. Usability in Modelling and Simulation 4.1. IT compliance for integrated and process supportive identity management 4.4. Social engineering and trust relationship 5.3. Mobility and Participatory Sensing 5.4. Real-time context-aware services

13. Today, even in cases where full information is available, individuals and government do not implement the needed actions, out of laziness, fear, blindness. ICT is already useful in providing the information, but has little impact on the deriving action. Furthermore, accountability is applied only to government, while to some degrees it should be applied to citizens as well. 2030 example: When making policy-relevant choices such as attending emergency services for normal illnesses, citizens have immediate intuitive feedback on the simulation of the impact of their choices, at personal and systemic level, such as the cost generated and tax implications. Peer-pressure tools show what choices the community makes and shows its total long term impact. Automated filtering tools ensure personal awareness of important elements, overcoming confirmation bias. Gaming applications engage users to consume less by showing performances over time. Same principles applied to government decision-makers, including feedback on the potential impact on approval rate (as incentive to act).

14. We need intuitive simulation and visualization tools that related everyday choices by citizens to related policy actions; that raise the attention on possible confirmation biases and overlooking relevant information; Relevant gaps: 1.1. Systematic management and monitoring of transparency 1.4. Real-time Public Linked Data 1.5. Citizen-oriented linked data querying and reasoning 1.7. Large scale public information visualization 2.4. Affordable large scale collaboration 2.5. Leveraging casual participation 3.4. Collaborative Intelligence in Policy Making 3.5. Usability in Modelling and Simulation 4.2. Litigable data protection in high flexible business processes 4.3. Flexible and dynamic disclosure management tools and technologies 5.3. Mobility and Participatory Sensing