Slides for a 1-day workshop on "Future Technologies and Their Applications" facilitated by Brian Kelly and Tony Hirst at the ILI 2013 conference on Monday 14 October 2013. See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/ See http://ukwebfocus.wordpress.com/events/ili-2013-workshop/

1. Future Technologies and
Their Applications
A one-day workshop
at ILI 2013 facilitated
by Brian Kelly and
Tony Hirst
Twitter hashtag:
#ili2013fut
Available under a
Creative Commons
(CC-BY licence)
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E1: Technology Trends:
Scenario Planning

2. Review
We have:
• Heard about the approach developed by the JISC
Observatory for detecting signals of new
technological developments.
• Heard about the importance of open processes
for discussing the implications of the evidence.
• Used a Delphi process for identifying
technological developments which you feel to be
important.
• Presented cases giving reasons why these areas
should be investigated further.
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3. But What Of Our Organisation?
How will our organisations respond to:
• The technological developments we have
identified?
• Unforeseen technological developments?
• Political, social, economic and cultural
changes?
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4. Scenario Planning
Scenario planning is:
• A strategic planning method that some organisations
use to make flexible long-term plans.
• An adaptation and generalization of classic methods
used by military intelligence.
Processes:
• Step 1 - decide assumptions/drivers for change
• Step 2 - bring drivers together into a viable framework
• Step 3 - produce initial mini-scenarios
• Step 4 - reduce to two or three scenarios
• Step 5 - write the scenarios
• Step 6 - identify issues arising
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From http://en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/Scenario_planning

5. Scenarios
Possible
scenarios
5
Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian

6. Scenario 1: Commercialisation
By 2016:
• Libraries had responded by financial
pressures by making significant use of
commercial services
• Companies are now looking to respond to
pressure from shareholders to increase profits
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In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

7. Scenario 2: Devolution
By 2016:
• Facebook, Amazon, … had alienated users due
to abuse of privacy, failure to pay taxes, …
• There was a move towards small-scale services
which were owned/managed by trusted
organisations
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In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

8. Scenario 3: Everyone’s a Librarian
By 2016:
• The majority are now connected using social
networks and are comfortable in using the services
• Skills which previously librarians possessed
(cataloging resources, resource discovery, …) are
now held by many.
• The role of the dedicated librarian is being questioned
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In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

9. Scenario 4: The Niche Librarian
By 2016:
• We had seen a decline in student numbers in library
schools and the demise of their professional
organisation following significant government cuts
• The professional body asked its few remaining
members for their thoughts on the future of the
profession
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In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

10. Scenario 5: Your Own Scanario
You may choose to :
• Define a scenario which will mean a changed
environment for your organisation by 2016
• Provide a brief summary of the scenario and
then address the issues below
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In your group:
• How would your organisation respond to this scenario?
• What evidence should you gather in order to see if this
scenario is likely to happen?
• What are the pros and cons of this scenario?
Is this scenario one you:
• Feel is likely?
• Would welcome?

11. Scenarios
Possible
scenarios
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Commercialisation Devolved ownership
Everyone’s a
librarian
The niche librarian
Your own scenarioa

12. Group Exercise
You should now:
• Address one of these scenarios.
• Give a report on your discussions.
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13. Questions
Any questions?
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